《专业基础知识及其应用》资料选读

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《专业基础知识及其应用》资料选读

TableofContents

ANoteOnFrameworks

StrategicTools&Frameworks

EconomicsFrameworks

Finance&AccountingFrameworks

SampleCases...AnIntroduction

SampleCase&SuggestedSolution

ProfitabilityCases

MarketEntry&GeneralStrategyCases

MoreCaseQuestionsToTry

MarketSizing&EstimationCases

MoreMarketSizing&EstimationCasesToTry

Brainteasers

CasesWithSlides

ANoteOn

Frameworks

Bythetimeyoufaceaclient,wewouldlikeyoutofeelveryconfidentthatyoucanlistentoa

descriptionofasituation,andrapidlyputtogetherasystematic,logicalwayofanalyzingit.Asa

consultant,thefirstimportantthingishowwellyoubreakaproblemdownandthenlogicallytryto

solveit.Wewantyoutobeabletosaytoyourself,'Tvedonethisforseveralcases;IknowIcan

dealwithit.”

Aframeworkcanguideyourintelligentquestioningoftheclients,letsyou

layoutyouranalysisinacoherentmanner,andletsyouapplyyour

experiencetothecasebypointingouthowthecaseisaninstanceofa

moregeneralproblemtowhichyourexperienceapplies.

Wecannotoveremphasizethatthisisaskilldevelopedthroughpractice.Thereisnosubstitutefor

confrontingacase,buildingyourownsystematicwaytoanalyzeit,thenimprovingyourmodel

throughdiscussionswithothers.Neverbeafraidtoexposeyourmodeltoothersforfearthatitis

crude,incomplete,orwrong.Allframeworkshaveholesinthem.Thafsthewholepointof

practicing—tolearnhowtoimproveyourinitialmodelssothatyouwillhavearicherandmore

sophisticatedsetoforganizingschemastodrawupon.

Whatisaframework?

Theworldisconfusing,andtounderstandcause-effectrelationships,wehavetodistillmost

problemstotheiressence.Thafswhattheorydoes,highlightthemostimportantaspectsofa

situationthataccountformostofthevariancebetweenspecificinstancesofthesituation.

Youmightcalltheseimportantaspects"drivers"or"criticalsuccessfactors"or“independent

variables."Ifourmodeloftheworldisalmostascomplexastheworlditself,itisnotveryuseful—

modelshelpusunderstandandpredictonlywhentheystripaproblemdowntosomethingwecan

grasp,asmallsetofkeydrivingforcesthatwecanfocusonwhileignoringotherthingsthathavefar

lessexplanatorypower.Ifyougiveamanagerachecklistof37thingstofocuson,s/hesimply

cannotgrasptheessenceoftheproblem.Ifyoucanhighlightamuchsmallernumberofdriversand

articulatetherelationshipsamongthem,s/henotonlycangrasptheproblembutcanapplythose

insightstoother,similarproblems.

Frameworks-orcallthemmodels,analyticalschemas,analyticallenses,conceptualmaps,etc.一

showthekeycauseandeffectrelationshipsthatyouthinkapersonshouldfocusontoapproacha

givensituation.Theyapplytoageneralclassofproblems;eachcaseisaspecificinstanceofa

problemclass.Theacidtestofwhetheraframeworkisusefulisthatitboth

explainsandpredicts.Ithelpsyouunderstandwhatisgoingoninthiscaseanddrawappropriate

analogiestoothercasesthatexemplifythesameproblemclass.Ithelpsyoupredictwhatwillhappen

iftheclienttakesagivencourseofaction,andtestyourpredictionbyseeinghowothercasesinthe

sameproblemclassturnout.Thesepredictionsarehypotheses—theyareinsightsintowhatwould

followiftheworldworkedthewayyourmodelsuggests.

Youshouldnottrytofollowarecipewhenconstructingframeworks.Therearemany,manywaysto

organizeanapproachtoaproblem,identifythekeydrivers,andarticulatetherelationshipsamong

them.However,someoftheseorganizingstructuresareweak.Iwillgiveyouafewsuggestions

herepurelytostimulateyourthinking,notbecausetheyrepresentthe“best”frameworks.

Checklists.Theweakestframeworkisthechecklist.Simplytellingmanagers,**Hereare

somethingstothinkabout,"doesnothelpmuch.Achecklistdoesextractsome

elementsfromtheproblemformanagerstofocuson,butitdoesnotprovidemuch

insightintothenatureoftheproblem,nordoesitshowtherelationshipamongthe

elements.

SWOTAnalyses.Onestepupfromachecklist,andstillaweakframeworkinmy

humbleview,isaSWOT(Strengths,Weaknesses,Opportunities,andThreats)

analysis.Thisisbasicallyachecklistsupplementedby“prosandcons."Again,itdoes

notprovidealotofinsightintothecause-effectrelationshipsintheproblem,andit

doesnotshowarelationshipamongthoseelements.

TheFamiliarFrameworks.LetmepauseforamomenthereandsuggestthatIdonot

thinkmuchofthe“7S”frameworkMcKinseyused(thatisintheheartofInSearchof

Excellence)whenitisusedsimplyasachecklist.Similarly,itisamisuseofPorter's

fiveforcesmodelsimplytousetheforcesastopicheadings.Porterlaysoutmany

causalconnectionsbetweeneachforceandindustrystructure;itisthecausal

connections,notthelistoffiveforcesinandofitself,whichisofintellectualvalue.

Articulatingthethreegenericstrategies(costleadership,differentiation-broad

market,anddifferentiation-narrowmarket)isnotveryinteresting;whatisinteresting

isthenotionthatbeingUstuckinthemiddle”doesnotwork.Breakingaproblem

downintobusinessprocessesofvaluechainsrepresentsprogressonlyifyoucan

articulatesomethingabouttheinterrelationshipsamongthoseprocessesorlinks.

Matrices.Apopularframeworkthatisoftenmisusedisamatrix,fromthehoary2x2to

thesophisticatedmulti-dimensionalmatrices.Drawingamatrixdoesnotinitself

constitutebuildingaframework.Whatmattersiswhetheryoucanarticulatehowthe

cellsaredifferentinsomesystematicway.

“Fit”Frameworks.Somewhatmoresophisticatedisa“fit”framework.Forexample,

youwereexposedtotheTushman-NadlerdiagnosticmodelinOrganizationalBehavior.

Theideaisthattheorganizationworksonlywhenitachievescongruencebetweenits

internalstructureandtheenvironment,andcongruenceamongitsinternalelements.

Forexample,and“organic”structuremayrepresentabetterfitinaturbulent

environmentthataHmechanisticnstructure,whichworksbetterinmorepredictable

environments.

Similarly,alow-costproducercannotaffordheavyR&Dinvestments,whileafirmpursuing

first-moverstrategycannotcompeteonthebasisofefficiency.Tousethiskindof

framework,youneedtospell-outtheelementsandwhatkindsofcongruentconfigurations

theycanform.

DecisionTrees.Anexcellentframeworkisadecisiontree.Youhavehadconsiderable

practiceconstructingtheseduringyourfirstyear,anddecisiontreeshaveagooddeal

ofrigorandvalue,especiallyinforcingyoutoidentifycontingencies.Thoseofyou

interviewingwithMcKinseywillfindthatdecisiontreesarelookedonwithgreatfavor

there.

Causalmodels.Anoftenlessformalframeworkthanadecisiontreeisacausalmodel,

thatessentiallyshowsthecauseandeffectrelationshipsbetweenasetofdrivers.

Thesemodelstendtooversimplifycontingencies,butnonethelesscanadd

considerableclaritytoyourthinking.Themostformalkindofcausemodelyoucould

proposeisamultivariateequation,whichwithabsoluteprecisionandclarityspecifies

whatyouthinkthedriversare,howtheyaffecttheoutcome,andwhatthefunctional

formoftheirimpactwouldlooklike.

Somecausalmodelsspecifythedynamicsofasituation,oftenbyuncovering

interlockingcyclesofabehaviorovertime.Again,thepointisnotthatsuchmodelsare

perfectovertime,butcyclicalbehaviorisverycommonintheworld,andpowerful

insightscanbegainedfromidentifyinginterlockingcyclesthatdampenand/orreinforce

oneanother.

Withimaginationandinsight,youwillcreateothertypesofframeworks.Whatallgoodframeworks

haveincommonisthattheyidentifythedriversofasituationandspecifyboththe

interrelationshipsamongthosedriversandhowtheyaffectimportantoutcomes.

StrategicTools&

Frameworks

Generalmarketing,strategyandoperations

conceptsforuseinconsulting

GeneralToolsForConsulting

Thelistpresentedinthefollowingsections,thoughnotexhaustive,coversmostofthestandard

toolsyouwilluseinconsulting.Usethesetoolstothinkaboutthekeyissuesandtoleadyoufrom

thefactstoaconclusion.

Asyoulookatthesetools,though,rememberthatnoframeworkortoolisasgoodasanoriginal

frameworkortool.Playwiththeseideasandframeworksuntilyoudevelopasetofyourown

frameworksthatyoufeelcomfortableusing.

Finally,payattentiontohowlogicallyyoustructureyourproposaloranswer.Thisisabitmore

straightforwardtolearnthantheframeworks,butisnolessimportant.Anexampleofastructurefor

yourinteractionis:

1.Stateorrestatetheproblem.

2.Identifythekeyissuesforfurtherinvestigation.

3.Applytherelevantframeworks.

4.Summarizeandprovidearecommendation.Itmayalsobeusefulto

discussimplicationsofyourrecommendationsuchascompetitive

reactionsandacceptancewithintheclientorganization.

TheFiveForces

MichaelPorter*s"FiveForces”Modelforindustrystructureandattractivenessanalysisisaclassic

analysisforcasesthatinvolveadecisionastowhethertoinvestinorenteragivenindustry.The

fiveforcesare:

ThreatOfNewEntrants

ThreatOfSubstitutes

SupplierPower

BuyerPower

Industry

Rivalry

ThreatOfNewEntrants.Thisforcemeasurestheeasewithwhichnewcompetitors

mayenterthemarketanddisruptthepositionofotherfirms.Thethreatthatoutsiders

willenteramarketisstrongerwhenthebarrierstoentryareloworwhenincumbents

willnotfighttopreventanewcomerfromgainingamarketfoothold.Inaddition,when

anewcomercanexpecttoearnanattractiveprofit,thebarrierstoentryare

diminished.

ThreatofSubstitutes.Thethreatposedbysubstituteproductsisstrongwhenthe

featuresofsubstitutesareattractive,switchingcostsarelow,asdbuyersbelieve

substitutesh'veequalorbetterfeatures.

SupplierPoWffr.SupplierstoanindustryareastrongcompeMtivefo「0ewhenever

theyhavesjfficientbargainingpowertocommandapricepremiufortheir

materialsorcomponents.Suppliersalsohavemorepowerwhentheytanaffect

competitionarnongindustryrivalsbythereliabillyoftheirceliveries_urbytRequality

andperformaneeoftheilemstheysupply.

BuyerPowerBuyersba)omeastroigercompetitiveforce1hemoretheyare>bleto

exercisebargainingleverageoverpree,quality,service,or)thertermsorconditionsof

sale.Buyersgainstrengt】throughtheirsheersiqeandwhe】thepurchase胃criticalto

theseller'ssiccess.

IndustryRivsIry.Often,tiemostpowerfulofthefiveforcesisthecompetitivebattle

amongrivalsthatarealreadyintheiidustry.Theintensitywithwhichcompetitors

jockeyforpositionandccimpfititivRa-ivanhgasiiidicatR^thrfAtrpngtholtheinfluenceof

thisforce.

Althoughthismodelcanprovidealotofinsightintoanindustry,bewareofbecomingtoodependent

onPorterinyourcaseinterviews.Also,makesureyouunderstandtheunderlyingdriversofthe

forces,andwhyandhowtheycreatevariedcompetitiveenvironments.Inaddition,youmaywishto

addtothisframeworkanyexternalimpactsfromgovernment/politicalfactorsandtechnology

changes.

TheThreeCs(OrIsIt7?)

Thissimpleframeworkcanbehelpfulformarketingcasesasasimplewaytobeginlookingintoa

company'spositioninthemarket.ThefirstthreeC*srarelygettoalloftheissues,buttheydo

provideabroadframeworktogettheanalysisstarted.ThelastfourC'smaybeusefuladditionsto

furtheryouranalysis.Asyoupracticecases,begintodevelopaseriesofpotentialquestions

relatedtoeach"C"thatwillhelpyouto"drilldown'1furthertowardstherootcausesoftheproblem

athand.Someexamplesaregivenforthefirst3C'sbelow.

Customer

Whatistheunmetneed?

Whichsegmentarewe/shouldwetarget?

Aretheypricesensitive?

Competition

Whatarestrengths/weaknesses?

Howmanyarethereandhowconcentratedarethey?

Arethereexistingorpotentialsubstitutes?

Company

Whatareitsstrengths/weaknesses?

Whereinthevaluechaindoweaddvalue?

Cost

Capacity

Culture

Competence

The4Ps

Thisframeworkissuitableformarketingimplementationcases.Itisnotusuallyappropriatefor

beginningtheanalysis,butitcanbeveryhelpfulwhenyoudiscussimplementationtomakesure

thatyoucoveralloftheissues.

Product

Promotion

Price

Place(distributionchannel)

ValueChainAnalysis

Thisanalysiscanprovideagoodoutlineforanalyzingacompany*sinternaloperationsandthe

valueofeachstepinmakingaproductorservicegofromrawmaterialstoafinishedgoodor

service.Valuechainsvarydramaticallyforeveryindustry,butherearetwoexamplesthatcanbe

customized:

SupportCompanyInfrastructure

ActivitiesHumanResourceManagement

InformationSystems

Procurement

一..Marketing

PrimaryJ...

InboundOutboundA

Activities.&

LogisticsLogistics_.

OperaticSales

nsServices

Valuechainanalysesstepyouthroughthecompany*sprocessesandhelpyouunderstandhow

muchvalueeachstepadds.Throughthistypeofanalysis,youcandiscernpossiblesynergies

amongvariousunitsofanorganizationanddeterminewhichvalueactivitiesarebestoutsourcedand

whicharebestdevelopedinternally.Itcanalsoshowyouwheretheremaybepotentialtoremovea

stepintheprocessthataddslittlevalue.Finally,itmayuncoverwhereacompanyisweakandthus

vulnerable.

PrimaryActivities.Createtheproductorservice,deliverittothemarket,createa

demandfortheproduct,andprovideafter-salesupport.Thecategoriesofprimary

activitiesareinboundlogistics,operations,outboundlogistics,marketingandsales,

andservice.

SupportActivities.Providetheinputandinfrastructurethatallowtheprimary

activitiestotakeplace.Thecategoriesarecompanyinfrastructure,humanresource

management,informationsystems,andprocurement.

Research&小“InboundManu-Sales&小会八―

Development。logisticsfacturingMarketing

VerticalIntegration

Somecompaniesfindbeneficialtointegratebackward(towardstheirsuppliers)orforward(towards

theircustomers).Verticalintegrationmakessensewhenacompanyrequiresgreatercontrolofa

supplierorbuyerthathasmajorimpactonitsproductcostorwhentheexistingrelationshipinvolves

ahighlevelofassetspecificity.

SWOTAnalysis——rvv—————vy\

Thisisanoth(rbasicfrarf^eworkthatvnaybehelpfulinstructuringanalysiAaboutacompany's

positionandtleexternalEnvironment\\

StrengthkII

Weaknesses//

OpportunitisLLL

Threats

Aswiththethr__，J"x!--9lysufficienttoanalyzethoroughlya

噩Matrix

Thismatrix,sometimesreferred-toasthegrowth/sharematrix,isnamedafteritsoriginator,the

BostonConsultingGroup.Itprovidesinsightintothecorporatestrategyofafirmandthepositioning

ofeachofitsbusinessunits.Thetwovariablesbeinganalyzedaremarketshareandindustrygrowth.

Thematrixoftenlookslikethefollowing:

MarketShare

Low

IndustryHighQuestionMark

GrowthLowCashFlowDog

Rate

Thestrategiesassociatedwiththismatrixaretoholdstars,buildquestionmarks,harvestcashcows,

anddivestdogs.Inotherwords,asacorporationlooksatitsbusinessunits,itshouldusecashcows

toprovidefundstobuilditsquestionmarksandtomaintainitsstars.Itshouldsellitsdogbusinesses

tokeepthemfromdragging-downtheothers.

Thisframeworkcanbeeasilyoverusedandoversimplified,butitcanprovidesomeinsight.For

example,ifacompanyhasacashcowamongitsbusinessunitsanditisinvestingagreatdealof

moneyinthatbusiness,youmayconcludethattheyshouldusethemoneyelsewhere.Likewise,ifa

corporationismostlyacollectionofdogs,thenyoumayconcludethatithasaroughfutureahead.

Onecaution:donotforgetcommonsensewhenusingthisframework.Forexample,itmaybe

neitherprofitablenorpossibletosella“dog.”

McKinsey7-SFramework

Thisframeworkcanhelpyouanalyzehowwellachangecanbeimplementedinanorganizationor

cangiveyouanideaofthegeneralwellbeingoftheorganization.Problemsarisewhentheseseven

componentsdonoreinforceoneanother.

Usethisframeworkwithcaution,though,becauseitcanbemisusedasachecklistanditisvery

easytoforgetoneoftheS'sduringtheinterview.Thesevenfactorsare:

1.Strategy2.Systems3.Structure

4.Style5.Staff6.Skills

7.SharedValues

Product/MarketExpansionMatrix

Thisframeworkcanstructureadiscussionaboutgrowthoptionsforacompany.Theoptionsare

whethertogrowincurrentornewmarketsand/orproducts.Eachstrategycarriesdifferentrisks,

withthediversificationstrategybeingtheriskiestandthepenetrationstrategythemostconservative.

Products

CurrentNew

CurrentMarketPenetrationProductExpansion

Markets

NewMarketDevelopmentDiversification

Product/TechnologyLifeCycle

Thisconcepttakesintoaccountthepassageoftimewhendiscussingthesalesofaproductor

technology.Bothtendtogothroughfourphases:introduction,growth,maturity,anddecline.

Ifdrawninadiagram,thelifecyclecurveisS-shaped;thus,thenameTroduct/Technology

S-CurveHissometimesusedforthisidea.Eachstagerequiresadifferentstrategyandmanagement

style.Themodelcanbeespeciallyusefulwhendiscussingthesalespatternsofanewcomputeror

othertechnology.ThefollowingfigureisanexampleofagenericScurve.

IntroductionGrowthMaturityDecline

CoreCompetencyAnalysis

C.K.PrahalaqandGaryHamelbroughtcorecompetenciestotheforefrontofbusinesqstrategy.

Verybriefly,cneoftheirideasisthatbyanalyzingwhichprocessesafirmexecutesverywell,you

candeterminehowtheymaybeabletoexpandtheirbusinessintonew,andsometimesunexpected,

areas.

AnexampleisHonda,whotranslatedtheircorecfhuij^pintocars,

lawnmowers,boatmotors,motorcycles,etc.Whep4rTa-case,thinkaboutwhatp<Qcessesacompany

executespartcularlywellanddeterminewhejh^rtheseprocessescouldbevaluAe4ndifferent

businesses.ThisframeworkisoftenusefuHnanalyzingthevaluechainofabusiness.

RelativeCostPosition/

TherelativecostpositionofafirnrZanbedeterminedbystackingupthevariablecostsand

allocated(asbestpossible)fixed/costsofaunitproducedbyonefirmtothecos:sofaunit

producedbyacompetitor.Th^keyinsightsfromthisanalysiscanbe(1)whetheracompanyis

moreorlesscompetitivejjptnitscompetitionand(2)whetherthecompanywiththelargest

marketsharehasthgje^estunitcosts.Allelseequal,thisshouldbethecaseDecauseof

experienceIfitisnot,themarketleadermaybevulnerabletoDricecorhpeMtionby

firms,

Synergies

Thisideaisusedinmanysettings,butitcanbeespeciallyusefulinanalyzingthepotential

benefitsofmergersoracquisitions(apopularcaseinterviewtopic).Synergiescancomeinmany

forms,buthereareafewtolookfor:

Spreadingfixedcostsovergreaterproductionlevels

Gainingsalesfromhavingalargerproductlineandextendingbrands

Bettercapacityutilizationofplants

Betterpenetrationofnewgeographicmarkets

Learningvaluablemanagementskills

Obtaininghigherpricesfromeliminatingcompetition(bewareof

antitrust,though)

Ifamergeroracquisitionoffersnoneofthesebenefitsandfewothers,youmaywonderifallthe

transactionisaccomplishingisthecreationofabigger,notbetter,corporation.

PortersGenericStrategies

MichaelPorterdevelopedthreegenericbusinessstrategiesthatcanprovideabroadframework

forlookingattheproperstrategyafirmshouldtakeandcomparingthattothestrategyactually

taken.Thetwovariablesinthisframeworkarescopeofmarket(broadornarrow)andcost(high

orlow).Porterbelievesthatafirmshouldchooseoneofthethreestrategies,costleadership,

differentiation,orfocus,butneverget“caughtinthemiddle.”

Costleadershipimpliesalow-costproductandeverdecreasingunitcosts(seeExperienceCurve

andRelativeCostPosition).Differentiationimpliesafocusonuniquevalueadded.Focuscan

eitherbecostleadershipordifferentiation,butitmustbedoneonanarrowscope.Sometimes,

thisiscalleda"nichestrategy/*Thefollowingfiguredisplaysthegenericstrategiesinmatrixform.

Cost

LowHigh

MarketBroadCostLeadershipDifferentiation

Scope

NarrowFocus

DecisionTrees

Decisiontreesprovideageneralstructureforalmostanykindofanalysis.Infact,theyarethe

basisofmanyofthetoolspresentedabove.Ifyougetacasethatdoesnotappeartofitanyof

theframeworksorconceptsmentioned,simplystructuretheprobleminatreeformatandwork

fromthere.

Decisiontreesaremosteffectivewhenyoustartwiththecoreproblemthenbreakthatintothree

tofourmutually-exclusive,collectivelyexhaustive(MECE)sub-problems.Keepgoinguntilyou

determinetherootcause.Theyarealsoeffectiveinthinkingofsolutions.Forexample,"Profits

willgoupifourrevenuesgoupand/orourcostsgodown.”Itisasimpleidea,butitcoversallof

thepossibleissues.

FrameworkForOperationsStrategy

Usethisframeworktounderstandacompan/smanufacturingstrategyandwhetherornotthis

strategyfitsinwiththestrategicgoalsofthecompany.

Fouroperationalobjectivescanhelpacompanyachieveitsmission:

Cost.Low,competitiveorhigh

Quality.Highorlow.Hasmultipledimensionslikeperformance,reliability,

durability,serviceability,featuresandperceivedquality.

Delivery.Hastwodimensions:speedandreliability

Flexibility.Hasthreedimensions:volume-abilitytoadjusttoseasonaland

cyclicalfluctuationsinbusiness;newproduct-speedwithwhichnewproductsare

broughtfromconcepttomarket;productmix-abilitytoofferawiderangeof

products.

OnceyouhavedefinedthemanufacturingstrategyintermsofCost,Quality,Delivery&Flexibility

mentionedabove,thereare10managementleversyoucanusetopursueyourgoals:facilities,

capacity,verticalintegration,qualitymanagement,supplychainrelationships,newproducts,

processandtechnology,humanresources,inventorymanagementandproductionplanningand