武理工综合灾害监测与预警专题讲座：气象监测、预报及预警

气象监测、预报及预警陈泰然台大讲座/大气科学系特聘教授国立台湾大学综合灾害监测与预警1一、天气预报（一）天气预报的使用与提供（二）天气预报的过程二、观测系统1.地面观测2.高空观测3.飞机观测4.船舶（海洋）观测5.卫星观测6.卫星观测2三、天气预报的限制五、预警四、天气预报能力逐日预报极端天气预报定量降水预报台风预报3一、天气预报（一）天气预报的使用与提供目的：满足使用者需求使用者：一般大众特殊行业：包含军事（陆海空军）、航空、工、商、农、林、渔、牧、交通…提供者：政府气象部门（例如大陆中国气象局、台湾中央气象局、日本气象厅、美国气象局(NWS)等）4（二）天气预报的过程1.观测：地面测站、高空测站、飞机、船舶、雷达、卫星、地面遥测技术（剖风仪、声波雷达…）2.资料传送（通讯）：有线、无线、卫星3.天气图填、绘、分析：资料填图、等值线绘制、天气系统分析54.气象预报：天气系统，即环流系统，预报由数值预报模式完成(

Numerical

Weather

Prediction;

NWP

)5.天气预报：为满足使用者需求，欲得知未来天气状况所做的预报，例如：温度、风、雨、云、能见度…6.预报发布传送：广播、电视、传真、报纸、电话、手机、网络…6二、观测系统1.地面观测（温度、湿度、风向、风速、气压、雨量…）地面观测场（站）7水循环8手摇式溼度计溼度观测9毛发溼度计10转杯风速计与风标风观测11舵式测风仪12加州之世界最大风力发电发展计划一角（7000座风力涡轮机）13水银气压计原理气压观测14雨量计原理雨量观测15中央气象局自动雨量站中央气象局自动雨量站162.高空观测（温度、湿度、风向、风速、气压）探空（温度、溼度、气压）探空气球与降落伞17全球探空汽球观测网(00and12

UTC)

(地面~25公里的气温溼度和风场垂直剖面)探空测站数1919探空测站数2020Dropsonde投落送与台湾追风计划21Driftsonde漂移送22Aerosonde高空送23RocketfilmsfromYoutubeRocketsonde(meteorologicalrocket)火箭探空243.飞机观测美国海洋太空总署25P3airborneRADAR26NSF/NCAR/EOLNSFNCAR-C130IntroducingHIAPERNSFNCARG-V

GulfstreamV(HIAPER)

C13027ELDORA

(ELectraDOpplerRAdar)28NOAAMOC/RonaldBrown(3250Tone)SIO/RogerRevelle(3200Tone)4.船舶（海洋）观测30船载雷达30ResearchshipsinJapan31OR-1(800T)OR-2(250Tone)FR-1(1948T)OR-2(295Tone)OR-3(295Tone)国科会OR-1/OR-2/OR-3/OR-5农委会FR-1(水试一号)ResearchshipsinTaiwanFR-1(1948Tone)32海研5号研究船(OR-5)2700Tone2011/6/10下水2012年8月启用(中信造船)33MooredbuoyDriftbuoyBuoy（浮标）英国气象局九个浮标之一342006/8/19(台东外海)35固定式海上平台(河口,海岸边)5.地面遥测气象雷达中央气象局雷达观测网38气象雷达常用的波长

S-band:约10cm，观测范围可达400～500km，通常用来作长程监测。

C-band:约5cm，观测范围约100～200km，通常架设于机场负责飞航安全。

X-band:约3cm，观测范围约50km，可置于移动平台，通常用于研究。39雷达回波40扫描原理42都卜勒雷达风场42S-bandpolarimetricDopplerradarsystemNCARS_POL43NSSLinthefieldDoppleronWheel(DOW)44Verticalcloudradar45降雨强度和含水量（～6

km）雨滴谱分布Transmitpower50mWFrequency24.1to24.15GHzVerticalPointingCompleteMicro-Rain-RADAR(MRR)46403MHz/npn/

WindProfiler剖风仪4747一般人耳听力范围极限约在20~20KHz附近1~3KHzSODAR（声达）

SODAR-SoundDetectionAndRange

以声波做为遥测系统应用范围温度,风速(Doppler)4849两大类卫星高度和轨道(geostationaryvs.polarorbiting)6.卫星观测风云2号105°

E4950GOES-WGOES-EMETEOSATELEKTROFENGYUNGMS

/

MTSAT全球地球同步气象卫星名称与涵盖面积ChannelWavelength

(µm)Resolutionatthesub-satellitepointBrightnesslevelVisible(VIS)0.55-0.901km10bitsforbothVISandIRchannels(1,024gradations)Infrared1(IR1)10.3-11.34kmInfrared2(IR2)11.5-12.54kmWaterVapor

(WV)6.5-7.04kmInfrared4(IR4)3.5-4.04km日本MTSAT地球同步卫星影像各频道波谱51其他地球科学相关卫星5253台风54森林火灾燃烧区域及浓烟飘散方向和涵盖区域Sumi-NPPRGBImage5556NOAANASAUniversityofMarylandWilfridSchroeder,VIIRSActiveFiresteamJune092013LittleBearHighParkJune102013NOAANASAVIIRS/NOAA/NASASuomiNPPSatellite火山爆发及火山灰飘散(ElSalvador)57Sahara沙尘暴

COSMIC(ConstellationObservationSystemforMeteorology,IonosphereandClimate)GPSradiooccultation(6LEOGPS/Metreceiversvs.24GPSsatellites)LaunchedonApril14,2006~daily1800T/RHprofilesworldwideFORMOSAT-3/COSMIC福卫3号59预报能力受限60三、天气预报的限制初始资料既不完整，也不正确观测误差控制方程组为非线性，无解析解截断误差重要物理过程需参数化：积云对流、乱流（混合/传送）、辐射既不真实，也有误差预报能力受限三大主因：误差（即噪声）随预报（NWP积分）长大，终至大于讯号，即预报期限瓶颈。61四、天气预报能力1.逐日预报AnnualMean500-hPaHGTDay-5AnomalyCorrelationDeterministicModelRuns注：NWSDirectorDr.LouisW.Uccellini提供部分资料预报能力不断提升（例如第5天预报）62Forecastday8.08dDayatwhichforecastlosesusefulskill(AC=0.6)

N.Hemisphere500hPaheight

calendaryearmeans预报期限不断增长636464Forecastday2.极端天气预报IncreaseinExtremeEvents

“Average”YearandTrendsintheU.S.6AtlanticBasinHurricanes1,300Tornadoes5,000Floods26,000SevereThunderstorms650Deaths$15BinLossesIncreasingnumberofextremeweathereventsatincreasingcosttothenation.Accurateforecastsforextremeeventshaveextendedto4-8daysNeedtotaketheseforecaststothenextlevelforeffectivedecisionsupport极端事件增加，灾害扩大。64ImprovedForecasting

Forecastskillsforextremeeventsextendedouttodays4-8for

Severeweather

Fireweather

SnowstormsFloodsHeat/coldwavesHurricanes极端事件预报能力提升，预报期限增长。65龙卷风与水龙卷661987年Saragosa

Texas龙卷风过后6768龙卷风警报不断改进68冰雹6970Populationsincreasingalongcoastlines,exposingriskstointensestormsandcoastalinundationIncreasingvulnerabilitytosevereweather,floods,fireweatherFloodsandsevereweatherhighlighttheimportanceofquantitativeprecipitationforecastsExtremeEvents,

IncreasingVulnerabilities脆弱度升高世界人口增加70HistoricAccomplishment:Useofmulti-modelensemblesisextendingaccuratepredictionofextremeevents5to8daysinadvance◎

SecondrevolutioninnumericalweatherpredictionUncertaintybeingreduced—predictionsnowconnectedtoawidespectrumofdecisionmakers;NWSistakingpredictiontothenextlevelTheeffortisgearedtowardbuildinga“Weather-ReadyNation”:ready,responsive,resilientinthefaceofincreasingnumberofextremeeventsaroundtheglobeKeytosuccess:partnerships—consistentcommunicationstrategytoensureproper/expectedresponse(socialscience)ForTaiwan:thisapproachcouldhaveamajorimpactonabilitiestoforecastandensurea“ready,responsive,resilient”societyTyphoons(withimprovedHWRF;globalensemble)Mei-YuconvectivesystemandrelatedheavyrainfallSummary71723.定量降水预报定量降水预报不断改进72FCT得分之概念示意图。F为预报定量降水的范围，为观测到的定量降水范围，C为正确预报范围T得分：偏倚：前估：后符：QPF（定量降水预报）现况73中央气象局豪（大）雨预报能力TS前估后符台风0.600.680.85梅雨0.170.200.57

综观尺度过程V.S.中尺度过程

梅雨季豪（大）雨：对中尺度过程缺乏了解744.台风预报75台风的结构SlidefromFredUSWRPHFIP台风路径预报误差不断改进76Whitecone–2003Bluecone-2010台风路径预报机率范围不断改进7778Trackforecastsgood,steady

improvementsErrorscutinhalfoverpast15yrsyears10-yrimprovement-Asaccurateat48hrsaswewereat24hrsin200024-48hintensityforecasthistoricallyoffby1category(2categoriesperhaps5-10%oftime)Intensityforecastsnotsogooduptolastseveralyears,butrecenttrendhasbeengoodPROGRESSinPredicting

TropicalStorms

OperationalForecastPerformance台风路径预报误差不断改进台风强度预报误差不断改进7879台风路径预报误差不断改进8080Fanapi(2010)D9/17A9/19C9/20B9/18五、预警JetStream10/30/1212Z(Blue)

UncertaintyinSandy’strackSandy路径之不确定性8182SnowTotals(Inches)...WESTVIRGINIA...

CLAYTON2NNW33.0QUINWOOD29.0DAVIS28.0FLATTOP28.0HUTTONSVILLE5WSW28.0CRAIGSVILLE26.0ALEXANDER24.0ALPINELAKE24.0NETTIE24.0TERRAALTA24.03daySnowTotal:ValidOct28-Oct303天降雪量82Ensemblesprovedtobeaninvaluablecomponentoftheforecastprocess5-7daysinadvance系集预报5-7天预报能力Operational(T574~27km)Experiment(T1500~13km)Note:Last24hofthehighresolutionexperimenttrackbasedon6hmodeloutputHypothesis:IncreasedhorizontalresolutionresolvescomplicatedAtlanticblockingpattern,slowssimulatedhurricane,andallowsittocurvetowardtheEastCoastModelInitializedat00UTC24October20127-DaySealevelPressure(mb)Forecastvalidat00UTC31October2012HurricanePositionShownEvery24hIncreasingNCEPGlobalModelHorizontal

ResolutionImprovesHurricane

SandyTrackGuidance模式水平分辨率增加，改进路径预报。8485

On19Sep2010,Kaoshiung(2ndlargestcity)wasseverelyflooded

duetotheheavycoastalrainfall(~600mm)inseveralhourswith2

deaths凡那比台风（高雄）8586Megi(2010)B10/19B10/20A10/21B10/2287On21Oct2010,38peoplewerekilledwhenstrandedonthecoastalroadnearSuaobymultiplelandslides,including