Carnegie-THE GLOBAL STRUGGLE OVER AI SURVEILLANCE-EMERGING TRENDS AND DEMOCRATIC RESPONSES-report (2022-06-09) （英文）行业资料

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

EmergingTrendsandDemocraticResponses

//STEVENFELDSTEIN/EDUARDOFERREYRA/DANILOKRIVOKAPIĆ/ed.BETHKERLEY

NATIONALENDOWMENTFORDEMOCRACY

NED

INTERNATIONALFORUMFORDEMOCRATICSTUDIES

SupportingFreedomAroundtheWorld

FoRum

NED

NATIONALENDOWMENTFORDEMOCRACY

SupportingFreedomAroundtheWorld

FoRum

INTERNATIONALFORUMFORDEMOCRATICSTUDIES

//WORKINGPAPER/JUNE2022

TheGlobalStruggle

overAISurveillance

EmergingTrendsandDemocraticResponses

Contents

Editor’sNote/BethKerley 1

ExecutiveSummary 2

TheGlobalStruggleoverAISurveillance/StevenFeldstein 4

OvercomingObstaclestoSurveillanceResearch:

LessonsforCivilSociety/EduardoFerreyra 20

StartingtheDebateonFacialRecognition:

ACaseStudyfromBelgrade/DaniloKrivokapić 23

Appendix1 26

Endnotes 29

AbouttheContributors

34

Acknowledgments 35

PhotoCredits 35

EDITOR’sNOTE

//BETHKERLEY,PROGRAMOFFICER,INTERNATIONALFORUMFORDEMOCRATIC

STUDIES,NATIONALENDOWMENTFORDEMOCRACY

Thereleaseofthisreportmarksthelaunchofour“MakingTechTransparent”

series,asetofpublicationsfocusedoncraftingtransparentandparticipatory

processesaroundtheuseofemergingtechnologiesinpoliticsandgovernance.

Buildingonasequenceofcross-sectoral,cross-regionalworkshopsorganized

bytheNationalEndowmentforDemocracy’sInternationalForumfor

DemocraticStudies,thisserieslooksatinitiativessuchassmartcities,biometric

surveillancetools,andalgorithmicdecisionmakingsystemsinaglobalcontext.

Ourcontributorswillbeaddressingboththedemocracyimplicationsof

newtechnologiesandvectorsforcivilsocietyinvolvementintheirdesign,

deployment,andoperation.

DrawnfrompresentationsataNovember2021Forumworkshop,thisreportexploresthechallengeofsafeguardingdemocraticprinciplesandprocessesamidthetransformationswroughtbyartificialintelligence(AI)surveillancetools.AItechnologiesareenablinggovernmentstocollect,process,andintegrateunprecedentedquantitiesofdataaboutpeople’sactivitiesbothonlineandoff.ThispublicationexaminesthespreadofAIsurveillancesystems,theirimpact,andthetransnationalstruggletoerectguardrailsthatupholdvaluessuchaspersonalprivacy,equalaccesstojustice,governmenttransparency,andparticipatorydecisionmaking.Itgivesparticularattentiontothedynamicsinyoungorfragiledemocraciesandhybridregimes,wherechecksonsurveillancepowersmaybeweakenedbutcivilsocietystillhasspacetoinvestigateandcontestsurveillancedeployments.

Intheopeningessay,StevenFeldstein,seniorfellowattheCarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,assessestheglobalspreadofAI-enabledsurveillancetoolsandongoingeffortsfromthelocaltothemultilateralleveltosetrulesaroundtheirdesign,deployment,anduse.Toofferamoregranularpictureofwaysinwhichcivilsocietyorganizationscaninfluencethisnorm-shapingprocess,EduardoFerreyraofArgentina’sAsociaciónporlosDerechosCivilesdiscussesstrategiesforovercomingsomecommonobstaclestoresearchanddebateonsurveillancesystems,whileDaniloKrivokapićofSerbia’sSHAREFoundationprovidesacasestudyshowinghowhisorganizationdrewnationalandglobalattentiontothedeploymentofHuaweismartcamerasinBelgrade.

.

Thispublication

examinesthe

spreadofAI

surveillance

systems,their

impact,andthe

transnational

struggleto

erectguardrails

thatuphold

democratic

values

1

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

ExecutiveSummary

Fromcamerasthatidentifythefacesofpassersbytoalgorithmsthatkeeptabs

onpublicsentimentonline,AI-poweredtoolsareopeningnewfrontiersinstate

surveillancearoundtheworld.Lawenforcement,nationalsecurity,criminal

justice,andbordermanagementorganizationsaroundtheglobeincreasingly

relyonthesetechnologies,whichusestatisticalpatternrecognition,machine

learning,andbigdataanalyticstoclassifyinformationandpredictresultant

patternsautonomously.Whatarethegovernanceimplicationsofthese

enhancedsurveillancecapabilities?

UncheckedAIsurveillancethreatensdemocraticprinciples

Absentproperlegalandtechnicalsafeguards,AIsurveillancetoolsposea

rangeofrisksforprivacy,ruleoflaw,andequality.Byenablingubiquitous

publicmonitoring,theymayfacilitatesystematicrepressionagainsttargeted

groups,encourageinvestigativeoverreach,orhaveachillingeffecton

expressionandassociation.Thesecapacitiesarebeingtestedtotheirlimits

inthePeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC),whereasophisticatedinfrastructureof

digitalauthoritarianismisemerging.Yettheyalsopresentsignificantchallenges

insettingswherecitizensenjoyadegreeofpoliticalfreedom.

TheglobalmarketforAIsurveillanceencompassesstrictautocracies,liberal

democracies,andagrowingnumberoftheglobal“swingstates”thatoccupythe

groundinbetween.ThePRChasemergedasaleadingproviderofthesetools.

Worldwide,however,slightlymoredemocraciesthanautocraticstateshaveAI

surveillancecapabilities,andvendorsbasedincountriesthataremembersof

theOrganizationforEconomicCooperationandDevelopment(OECD)sellthese

systemstoregimesofallstripes.

Inswingstates,whichcombinedemocraticandautocraticfeatures,rule-of-

lawgapsanddemocraticfragilitycreateaheightenedriskofsurveillance

abuses.AsdomesticdemandmeetscheapexportsfromthePRC,countriesin

thiscategoryareincreasinglyacquiringAIsurveillancetools—despiteevidence

thatthesesystemsmaynotbelivinguptothehypeintermsoftheirimpacton

publicsafety.

2

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

Stakeholdersmustcooperatetoprotecthumanrights

Globally,humanrightsimpactsremainanunder-coveredtopicinnational

governments’AIstrategies.However,thehumanrightsimplicationsofAI

surveillancetoolsaremovingontotheagendaoftheEUaswellasmultilateral

forumsliketheUnitedNations(UN)andtheOECD.Associetiesaroundthe

worldworktosetnormsaroundbothspecifictechnologies,suchasfacial

recognition,andartificialintelligencewritlarge,collaborationacrosssectorsis

crucialtoprotectingdemocraticprinciplesandprocesses.Privatesectorentities

shouldtakegreaterinitiativetoassesstheirproducts’humanrightsimplications

anddevelopappropriatesafeguards.Civilsocietyorganizations(CSOs)atall

levelsarekeytoensuringaccountabilityintheirrolesaswatchdogs,awareness

raisers,andshapersofanewnormativeenvironment.

AsopensocietiesapproachthechallengeofAIsurveillance,theyshouldkeep

thefollowingpointsinmind:

•Governmentsneedtomovefrompromotinghigh-levelAIprinciplestoestablishingconcretebenchmarks,regulations,andoversightbodiestoensurethatAIisusedinamannerconsistentwithprivacyandhumanrightsnorms.Civilsocietyactorsshouldparticipateintherulemakingprocessasequalstakeholders,ratherthanbeingbroughtinattheendforcomment.

•Settingupanenduring,multi-stakeholderbodytoaddressemergingtechnologysurveillanceissueswouldfillanimportantgapinthelandscapeofinstitutionscraftingAInorms.Toavoiddilutingkeydemocraticprinciples,participatinggovernmentsandcompaniesshouldbeheldtoahigh

standardonsurveillancepractices.

Civilsocietyactorsshouldparticipateintherulemakingprocessasequal

stakeholders.

•FacedwithBeijing’sacceleratingeffortstowritetherulesforAIsystems,democraciesmustactmorevigorouslytodefineglobalnormsinkeepingwithdemocraticprinciples.IfPRCregulatoryexperimentsandstandards-settingeffortsendupshapingglobalAIgovernance,theroleofhumanrightsnormsmaybediminished.AIregulatoryinitiativesdevelopinginEuroperepresentpositivestepstocounterbalanceBeijing’sactions.

•ToensurethatAIgovernanceprocessesareparticipativeandinclusive,opensocietiesmustempowercitizenstounderstandandevaluatetheimpactsofAIsystems,aswellasthevaluechoicestheyreflect.Civilsocietyshouldworktosupportindividualunderstandingandengagement.

3

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

TheGlobalStruggle

overAISurveillance

//STEVENFELDSTEIN,SENIORFELLOW,CARNEGIEENDOWMENTFORINTERNATIONALPEACE

TheRiseofAISurveillance

Throughseveralkeyadvancesthatenableapproachessuchasfacialrecognition,

socialmediamonitoring,andsmartpolicingtechniques,AItechnologyis

extendingthepowerofstatestomonitorcitizens.Whileentrenchedautocracies

aremakingeageruseofthesenewcapacities,moreopenpoliticalsystemsare

alsoincorporatingAIsurveillancetools,raisingtroublingquestionsaboutthe

impactondueprocess,freeexpression,andactivecitizenship.

Inthecontextofglobaldemocraticbacksliding,unregulatedAIsurveillance

threatenstowidengapsintheruleoflawandtilttheplayingfieldtowardilliberal

governmentsinsettingswherechecksandbalancesarealreadyweakened.

Civilsocietycampaignsaredrawingattentiontothesedangers,andestablished

democraciesaremovingtowarddefiningclearergroundrulesforAIsurveillance

use.Tobringprinciplesintopractice,however,morerobustleadership

fromdemocracies,activecollaborationamongstakeholders,andsustained

engagementwiththebroaderpublicareneeded.

AIsystemsaugmentgovernmentsurveillancepowersinseveralways.First,

AIfacilitatestheautomationofoperationspreviouslycarriedoutbyhumans,

forinstancebyusingalgorithmstomatchimageswithfootage.Second,AI

technologycanclassifyinformationandpredictpatternsautonomously,

4

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

enablingautomatedsystemstoflagperceivedanomaliesandattemptto

anticipatefutureevents.1Third,advancedAIsiftsthroughanunprecedented

volumeofdata.Theseelementsbenefitlawenforcementagencies,butthey

alsocreatethreatsofprivacyviolationsandinvestigativeoverreach,not

tomentiondiscriminatorybias(forexample,whenfacialrecognitiontools

misidentifymembersofparticularracialorethnicgroupsathigherrates).The

weightofbothintentionalabuseandflaweddesignoftenfallsheavieston

marginalizedcommunities.

Surveillancerisksextendacrossregimetypes

Inauthoritariansettings,thesenewcapabilitieshaveobviouspotentialtodeepenrepression.Mostnotably,researchershaveinvestigatedthecombineduseofbiometricsurveillanceandsocialmediamonitoringtofeedintoanintegratedsystemofphysicalanddigitalcontrolinChina’sXinjiangprovince.2WhilethiscomprehensiveapplicationofAItoolstorepressanentireregionstillrepresentsanextremecase,thepotentialforsurveillancebreakthroughstosubvertexpectationsofprivacy,facilitatepoliticalpersecutionorgroupdiscrimination,anderodethefreedomsofexpressionandassociationisnotuniquetoautocracies.3

Advocatesinliberaldemocracieshavejustifiableconcernsaboutauthoritiesleveragingnewtechnologiesinantidemocraticways.Infact,theuseofelectronicsurveillancetomonitorandharasscivilrightsactivists,protesters,andNativeAmericanorganizationsledtopassageoftheUnitedStates’1978ForeignIntelligenceSurveillanceAct,whichsetparametersforauthorizingcertainelectronicsurveillanceactivities.4Today,againstthebackdropofexpandingandcontroversialusesofAIsurveillancetools,aswellasdemocraticbackslidingtrendsinsomesettings,liberalgovernmentsarestrugglingtofindanacceptablebalancebetweenmaintainingpublicorderandprotectingcivilliberties.

Thepotentialforsurveillancebreakthroughstosubvertoreroderightsandfreedomsisnotuniqueto

.

autocracies

InFrance,themayorofMarseillehasinitiatedthe“BigDataofPublicTranquility

Project,”whichwillincorporatepredictivepolicingtechnology(involvingthemass

collectionandanalysisofdatainordertoanticipate,deter,andrespondtofuture

criminalactivity)aswellasthousandsofvideocameraspurchasedfromPRCtech

giantZTE.5RecentreportshaveshownthatpublicagenciesintheUnitedStates

aremakingwideuseoffacialrecognitiontechnology(FRT),includingsoftware

developedthroughsocial-mediascrapingbytheprivatevendorClearviewAI.6

U.S.policedepartmentshavealsoleanedheavilyonsocialmediasurveillance

andfacialrecognitionalgorithmstoidentifysuspectsintheJanuary6,2021

CapitolHillinsurrection.7InIsrael,themilitaryisimplementingaprogramthat

integratesFRTwithsmartphoneandvideosurveillancedevicestomonitor

Palestinians.8Inmanycases,newsurveillanceinfrastructureisspreadingunder

theradar,withthesesystemsdrawingpublicnoticeanddebateonlyafterthey

havealreadybeendeployed.

5

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

Inweakdemocraciesandhybridregimes,therisksthatadvancedsurveillance

technologiesposeareacute.Wheredemocraticbackslidinghasalready

weakenedruleoflawprotections,asinPoland,Hungary,India,orthe

Philippines,thesetoolsoffernewpossibilitiesfortrackingandintimidating

dissenters,monitoringpoliticalopponents,andpreemptingchallengesto

governmentpower.9

Publicdocumentationshowshowtheseregimesareembracinghigh-tech

surveillance.InIndia,authoritiesareusingFRTtotrackdownprotesters.10In

Serbia,officialscontractedwithHuaweitoestablishasurveillancenetwork

thatwillsoon“covereverysignificantstreetandpassageway”ofBelgrade(see

essaybyDaniloKrivokapićonpp.23–25).11Pakistan’sgovernment,meanwhile,

purchasedan$18.5millionsystemfromtheCanadianfirmSandvinetosurveil

onlinetrafficandmonitorcommunications.12

TowhatextentwillthegrowingavailabilityofAIsurveillancetoolsinswing

states(hybridregimesorweakdemocracies,definedforpurposesofthis

paperusingV-Demelectoraldemocracyscores)speeddemocraticbacksliding,

fuelrepressivepractices,orunderminetheruleoflaw?Theanswertothis

questionislikelytobeshapedbytheinterplayofaglobalizedsurveillance

market,withChinaasamajorplayer;domesticpoliticalconditionsinthe

countrieswheresurveillancetoolsaredeployed;andongoingeffortsby

nationalgovernments,civilsocietygroups,andthewiderglobalcommunityto

craftnewnormsaroundAI.

PoliceinKualaLumpur,Malaysiaoperateadrone.Aroundtheworld,lawenforcementofficialsmakeuseofnovelsurveillancetechnologiestokeeptabsonthepublic.

6

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

TheGlobalAISurveillanceMarket

AIsurveillancetechnologyisbecomingincreasinglyubiquitous,particularlyasitscostcomesdownandrelevantcomponentsbecomemoreaffordable.AsStanford’s2021AIIndexnotes:“Thetechnologiesnecessaryforlarge-scalesurveillancearerapidlymaturing,withtechniquesforimageclassification,facerecognition,videoanalysis,andvoiceidentificationallseeingsignificantprogress.”13

In2019,Ireleasedanindexthatusedopen-sourcecontentanalysistomeasuretheglobalprevalenceoffourtypesofAI-poweredsurveillancesystems.14Theseare:FRT(biometrictechnologythatanalyzeshumanfacesforidentificationpurposes),smartorsafecities(urbannetworkscomprisingthousandsofsensorsthattransmitreal-timedatatofacilitatecitymanagement),smartpolicingtechniques(data-drivenmethodsforpoliceresponse,investigations,crimeprediction,andevensentencingdecisions),andsocialmediamonitoring(algorithmsthatautomaticallymonitormillionsofonlinecommunications).Theindexwasupdatedin2022.15AstheFigurebelowshows,slightlymoredemocraticgovernmentsthanauthoritarianregimeshaveknownAIsurveillancecapabilities:52ofthe97countrieswiththesetoolsareclassifiedbyV-Demasliberalorelectoraldemocracies.16

52of97

SlightlymoredemocraticgovernmentsthanauthoritarianregimeshaveknownAIsurveillance

.

capabilities

FIGURE

GlobalPresenceofAI-PoweredSurveillanceTechnologies

ELECTORALDEMOCRACIES

deployingAIsurveillance

technology

ClassificationsaccordingtoMichaelCoppedgeetal.,“V-DemCodebookv12,”Varietiesof

Democracy[V-Dem]Project,2022,pp.287–88,usingdatafor2021.

LIBERALDEMOCRACIES

deployingAIsurveillancetechnology

CLOSEDAUTOCRACIES

deployingAIsurveillancetechnology

deployingAIsurveillancetechnology

ELECTORALAUTOCRACIES

7

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

PRCcompaniesarepopularsuppliersofAIsurveillancetoolsforgovernments

Chinesecompaniesremainattheforefrontwhenitcomestoprovidingadvancedartificialintelligence/machinelearning(AI/ML)toolsthatenablegovernmentstocarryoutmasssurveillance.Thesefirmsareseekingoutnewmarketsvigorously,andstatesubsidiesoftensupporttheirefforts.Governmentsaroundtheworldhaveeagerlyadoptedthelow-costimportsenabledbythesepolicies:SurveillancecamerasmanufacturedbyHikvisionandDahuanowaccountfor“nearly40percent”oftheglobalmarket.17Chinesesurveillancetechnologyisusedinovereightycountriesspanningeveryregionoftheworld.18

PRCsurveillanceexportsbuildonthecontinuingdevelopmentofthesetechnologiesathome.DespiteinternationaloutrageoversurveillancepracticesinXinjiang,firmssuchasHuaweiandDahuahavebeenworkingwiththeChinesegovernmenttopilotnewsystemsthatincludeemotionrecognitionsoftware(applicationsthatpurporttoinferanindividual’semotionalstate)andethnicidentificationtechniques(programsthatuseinformationfromfacialscanstoinferconclusionsaboutrace)targetingChina’sUyghurminoritypopulation.19Article19researchersindicatethatthePRChasa“burgeoningmarketforemotionrecognitiontechnologies”withlittleoversightorpublicconsultation.20

40%

Surveillance

.

camerasmanufacturedbyHikvisionandDahuanowaccountfor“nearly40percent”oftheglobalmarket

Beijingisalsobuildingupits“datafusion”capabilities(mergingdisparate

datasetstoenhancetheanalyticalpowerofdigitaltools).21Itsresearchersare

investingheavilyinimprovingcomputervisionandvisualsurveillanceoutcomes

(withaparticularfocusontechniquesrelatedtopersonre-identification,crowd

monitoring,andfacialspoofingdetection,ortechniquestodetermineifa

personismasqueradingassomeoneelse).22PRCauthoritiesarealsohoning

theirabilitytoconductmasssurveillanceagainstforeigntargetsbyusing

sophisticateddataanalyticsoftwaretomineexternalsocialmediaandinternet

platforms.23

CompaniesinOECDcountriesactivelycontributetothe

marketplace

YetcompaniesbasedinOECDcountriesarealsosellingpredictivepolicing

software,facialrecognitionalgorithms,andsocialmediasurveillance

applicationswidely,includingtoauthoritarianclients.Mostgovernments,

especiallythosewithampleresources,purposelyavoidrelyingonone

countryorsuppliertofulfilltheirsurveillanceobjectives.InSaudiArabia,for

example,Huaweihasbeencontractedtobuildsafecities,GoogleandMicrosoft

overseethecountry’scloud-computingservers,U.K.armsmanufacturer

BAEhassuppliedmasssurveillancesystems,includinginternetinterception

technology,Japan’sNECprovidesfacialrecognitioncameras,andAmazonand

Alibabaareweighingpartneringonamajorsmartcityproject.24

8

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

EuropeanandU.S.vendorshaveevenexportedAIsurveillancetoolstothePRC,wheresomeofthesesystemswerefoundtohavegonetoanentityinXinjiang.25Moreover,useofAIsurveillancetechnologycontinuestogrowinliberaldemocraciesthemselves.26

TheCOVID-19pandemichasbeenaboonforsurveillancevendorsglobally,withgovernmentsandprivateinstitutionsalikedeployingtoolssuchascontact-tracingapps,publichealthpredictionalgorithms,andtemperaturesensors.Atthepandemic’sonset,civilsocietygroupsexpressedalarmoverprivacyriskslinkedtogovernmentuseofthesesystems.27Infact,manystatesfailedtoimplementthemfullyorweredisappointedbytheoutcomes.28Nonetheless,thereisarealriskthatinvasivemeasuresanderosionsofdataprivacywillpersistbeyondthepandemic.Insomecountries,therearegrowingindicationsthattoolssuchasChina’shealthcodeapp,whichratesusers’likelihoodofexposuretodeterminetheiraccesstopublicplaces,willremaininuseandmayunderpinnewformsofpoliticalrepression.29DemandfortemperaturescannersalsogavecompanieslinkedtohumanrightsabusesinthePRC,suchasDahua,achancetoexpandtheirsalesabroad.30

PRC-basedHikvisionisoneoftheworld’slargestsuppliersofvideosurveillancetechnology,andtheirproductsareincreasinglyubiquitous.

TheCOVID-19

.

pandemic

hasbeen

aboonfor

surveillance

vendors

globally

9

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

TheVulnerabilities

ofSwingStates

AlthoughcommentaryhasfocusedheavilyoneitherChina’sfull-fledgedtechno-authoritarianmodelorsurveillancedebatesinliberal-democraticsettings,AIsurveillancepracticesinhybridregimesandweakdemocraciesmayseriouslyimpactboththepoliticalevolutionofthesecountriesandthetrajectoryofglobaltechnorms.31Theseswingstatesrepresentpartlyopenpoliticalsettingswherekeyliberal-democraticguardrailsareweakenedorabsentinways

thatcouldheightentheappealofauthoritariandigitalmodels.Surveillancedeploymentspresentincreasedrisktocivillibertiesandtheruleoflaw,butspaceforcivilsocietytochallengethesedeploymentsremains.

Forpurposesofthispaper,swingstatesareidentifiedusingacombinationofV-Demelectoraldemocracyscoresandqualitativeindicatorsselectedbytheauthor,yieldingatotalof67countriesinthisgroup(afulllistcanbefoundinAppendix1).32Whileallstatesinthiscategorycombinedemocratictraitswithautocraticattributes,theyvaryintherobustnessoftheirruleoflawframeworksandthemechanismstheyhaveavailabletochecksurveillanceabuses.Mostsufferfromsomemixofseriousdemocraticweaknesses,suchasconcentratedpowerintheexecutivebranch,lackofjudicialindependence,limitationsonmedia,repressionofcivilsociety,andinfringementsonpoliticalfreedoms.

SwingstatesincreasinglyuseAIsurveillancetools

Ofthe67swingstates,44alreadypossessAIsurveillancecapabilities.Inthecomingyears,thisnumberwillonlygrowhigher.Inmanycases,thereisstilllittleinformationavailableonhowAItoolsarebeingorwillbeusedinthesesettings.AsIhaveshowninpriorresearch,however,thereisastrongrelationshipbetweencurtailmentsofpoliticallibertiesandsubsequentgovernmentabuseofsurveillancetechnologies.33Thus,theriskthatsurveillanceabuseswillfeedonand,inturn,exacerbatebroadergovernanceproblemsisaseriousone.

Swingstates:

partlyopenpoliticalsettingsthatcombinedemocratictraitswithautocratic

.

attributes

44OF67

swingstatesalreadypossess

AIsurveillancecapabilities.

10

THEGLOBALSTRUGGLEOVERAISURVEILLANCE

HowareswingstatesdecidingtheirapproachestotheuseofAIsurveillance?ThePRCretainsamajorpresenceinmostofthesecountries,anditscompaniesfigureprominentlyintheacquisitionanddeploymentofrelevanttechnologies.Amongthe67swingstates,55aremembersofBeijing’sBeltandRoadInitiative.Still,itisimportantnottooverlookdomesticfactors,suchaspoliticalnorms,securitythreats,andregimeincentives,thatshapegovernments’choices(nottomentiontheimpactofnon-ChineseexportsofAItechnology).34

55OF67

swingstatesaremembersofBeijing’s

BeltandRoadInitiative

Forexample,securityconcerns,whetherexternalorinternal,areanimportantdriverofsurveillanceinvestments.ItislogicalthatcountriessuchasIndia,Pakistan,Iraq,andKenya—whichvariouslyfacechallengesfromterrorism,internalinsurgencies,andlargerefugeeinflows—wouldchoosetoinvestinsophisticatedsurveillancesystems.Peerinfluenceisalsoafactor.AsAkınÜnverwrites,thePRC’sprovisionoflowercostsurveillancetechnologiestocertaincountriesmaypromptrivalstatesto“turntothesamesuppliers...inordertoswiftlyacquirecompetingcapabilitiesandresolvetheirsecuritydilemma.”35

ThetrackrecordofAIsurveillance

Inasubsetoftheswingstates—includingIndia,Nigeria,andSingapore—thereisalreadyevidenceofsurveillancepracticesthatraiseconcernsaroundprivacy,fairness,ortheruleoflaw.36InIndia,forinstance,policeforcesdeployFRTroutinelytoimplement“broadsweep-and-searchactionsthatoftentargetpoorneighborhoodsheavilypopulatedbyMuslimsandmigrantsfromnorthIndia.”37

Asdigitalizationsweepsthecountry,surveillancehasbeenincorporated

intoIndia’sgovernance,leadingtothecreationofwhatSangeetaMahapatradescribesas“anearly-warningsystemagainstsecuritythreatsandabehavior-moderatingsystemofsocialmanagementandcontrol.”38Elsewhere,significantpatternsofabuseeitherhavenotemerg