AStitchinTimeAdaptationtoClimateVariabilityandChangeISSE在时间的适应气候变化ISSE一针

AStitchinTimeAdaptationtoClimateVariabilityandChangeISSE在时间的适应气候变化ISSE一针第1页/共35页AdaptationActionstakenbyindividuals,institutions,andgovernmentsAnticipatoryActionstakeninadvanceofclimatechangeeffectsResponsiveTheseverityofimpactswilldependonthecapacitytoadaptanditseffectivedeployment第2页/共35页VulnerabilityandAdaptationEbietal.2005第3页/共35页AdaptationBaselineWhatisbeingdonenowtoreducetheburdenofdisease?Howeffectivearethesepoliciesandmeasures?Whatcouldbedonenowtoreducecurrentvulnerability?Whatarethemainbarrierstoimplementation?Whatmeasuresshouldbegintobeimplementedtoincreasetherangeofpossiblefutureinterventions?第4页/共35页WhyNotJustReacttoClimateChangeasItHappens?LongtimeframeanduncertaintieswithclimatechangemakeanticipatingadaptationdifficultTheremaybeirreversibleandcatastrophicimpactsthatcannotbemitigatedOpportunitiestomitigateclimatechangeimpactsthroughanticipationmaybemissed第5页/共35页DifficultywithAnticipating

ClimateChangeanditsImpactsDirectionMagnitudeTimingPath第6页/共35页QuestionsforDesigningAdaptationPolicies&MeasuresAdaptationtowhat?Whatarethefutureprojectionsfortheoutcome?Whoisvulnerable?OnscalerelevantforadaptationIsadditionalinterventionneeded?ModifyingexistingpreventionmeasuresReinstituteeffectivepreventionprogramsthathavebeenneglectedorabandonedNewrisksWhoadapts?Howdoesadaptationoccur?Whenshouldinterventionsbeimplemented?Howgoodorlikelyistheadaptation?第7页/共35页RemoveYourTie–SavethePlanet

JapanTimes30April2005第8页/共35页GlobalandAlpineTemperatures1901-2000-1.5-1-0.500.511.519001910192019301940195019601970198019902000GlobalAlps

ChangeinTrelativeto1961-1990[°C]Beniston,M.,2000:EnvironmentalChangeinMountainsandUplands,Arnold,London第9页/共35页2000Courtesy:MaxMaischUniversityofZürich,Switzerland+3°C?2050?GlacierRetreat:

TschiervaGlacier,Engadine第10页/共35页TamPokhari3Sept1998Photo:Danek~1997Source:Dwivedi2003第11页/共35页FloodFromTamPokhariPhotos:LakpaGœljenSherpa1998Source:Dwivedi2003)第12页/共35页PotentialforGlacialLakeOutbursts:BhutanGlacierGlacierlakeLakethatposesathreatBeniston2004第13页/共35页GangesDischargeatCalcutta0500010000150002000025000300003500040000JFMAMJJASONDDischarge[m3/s]Failingmonsoon,withglaciermeltwatersFailingmonsoon,withoutglaciermeltwatersAveragedischargeBeniston2004第14页/共35页IntegrationofPublicHealthwithAdaptationtoClimateChange:LessonsLearnedandNewDirectionsWhatmodificationstopublichealthsystemsmightbenecessarytoenhanceadaptivecapacitytoclimatevariabilityandchange?Whatlessonscanbedrawnfromthehistoryofmanagingenvironmentalandotherthreatsthatcanbeappliedtoadaptationtoclimatevariabilityandchange?Editors:Ebi,Smith,BurtonTaylor&Francis2005第15页/共35页AdaptationisaProcessthatRequiresSustainedCommitmentItiseasyforsocietiestobecomecomplacentandassumethatproblemsaresolvedforever,andtonotmaintaineffortstomonitorfortheemergenceorre-emergenceofproblems,orevaluatetheongoingeffectivenessofsolutionsContinuousmonitoringandregularevaluationofinterventionsareneededbecausehealthrisksandtheirdriverschangeovertime第16页/共35页DistributionofAedesaegyptiintheAmericas第17页/共35页EmergenceofDengueHemorrhagicFeverintheAmericas第18页/共35页NeedtoUnderstandtheMultipleandInteractingDeterminantsofDiseaseClimatechangemayexacerbateoramelioratediseasedeterminants,withthepossibilitythatthresholdsmaybeencounteredIncreasedunderstandingoftheimpactsofclimatevariabilityislikelytofacilitateadaptationtofutureclimaticconditions第19页/共35页ClimateChangeandMalariaunderDifferentScenarios(2080)Increase:EastAfrica,CentralAsia,RussianFederationDecrease:CentralAmerica,Amazon[withincurrentvectorlimits] VanLieshoutetal.2004A1B2A2B1VanLieshoutetal.2004第20页/共35页Average%DeviationinMalariaCases,ColombiaNiño+1Niño0OtherYears(1960-1992)251550-5-15-25DeviationFromTrendinMalariaCases(%)Boumaetal.TropicalMedicineandInternationalHealth1997;2:1122-1127第21页/共35页DiseaseDeterminantsClimatechangeisoneofmanyfactorsinfluencinghumanhealthandsocialwell-beingPublichealthchallengespresentedbyclimatechangeneedtobeaddressedwithinthecontextofissuessuchasinadequatenutrition,accesstocleanwaterandsanitation,anddiseasessuchasHIV/AIDSPovertyamajorunderlyingfactor第22页/共35页CampylobacteriosisNotifications,NewZealand第23页/共35页CampylobacteriosisinNewZealand(Weinsten&Woodward2005)Campylobacteriosisisan“emerging”humangastrointestinaldisease,withadramaticincreaseincasesinthelastfewdecadesInNewZealand,naturalvegetationwasreplacedwithpastoralfarmingThisincreasedsourcesfordisease(animalwaste)andreducedtheabilityofnaturalvegetationtoremovethewastesfromrunoffThishasresultedincontaminationofhalfofNewZealand’sriversandstreams第24页/共35页MultiplePolitical,Social,Economic,Technological,andHumanFactorsDetermineWhetherMeasuresAreEffectiveEffectiveinterventionsareembeddedinanunderstandingofhumanfactorsandaretailoredtoaddresslocalsituationsAlso,maladaptationandunintendedconsequencesofinterventionscanoccurinmanydifferentways第25页/共35页Or-Differencesinculture,education,knowledge,availabilityandaffordabilityoftechnology,andotherfactorsmeansthata“onesizefitsall”approachedislikelytofail第26页/共35页SurveillanceandEarlyWarningSystemsCanReduceVulnerabilityMaximumTemperature10August2003第27页/共35页HeatWatch/WarningSystemsSaveLives:EstimatedCostsandBenefitsforPhiladelphia1995-1998

Ebietal.BAMS2004HeatwavesdefinedasdayscategorizedasmaritimetropicalordrytropicalIncluded3daysfollowingaheatwaveday45daysincludedinanalysis;21warningdaysand24daysfollowingawarningMortalityfor65andolderagegroupAnalysisbasedonexcessmortalityDifferencebetweenreportedmortalityandunderlyingmortalitytrendestimatedfromyearspriorto1995(1964-66,1973-76,1968,1980-88)Dataanalyzedusinglinearregression第28页/共35页ResultsExcessMortality=3.27–0.05*TimeofSeason–2.6*WarningIndicatorWhenawarningwasissued,assumingnomortalitydisplacement,2.6livesweresaved,onaverage,foreachwarningdayandforthethreefollowingdaysTherefore,PWWSsavedanestimated117livesovertheperiod1995-1998Netbenefitsaround$468millionoverthethree-yearperiodEstimatedthevalueofastatisticallifeat$4millionMostoftheactionsundertakenbycityofPhiladelphiadonothavedirectcosts;theyincludeactionstakenbycityemployeesasanormalpartoftheirjobs,actionstakenbyvolunteers,anddelayedactions;estimatedcostsof$10,000perday第29页/共35页CollaborationandCoordinationisRequired:PotentialTransmissionofSchistosomiasis,JiangsuProvinceYangetal.,2005第30页/共35页UnderlyingThemeThereisaneedtoestablishaninstitutionalstructurewiththeresponsibilitytomaintainvigilanceinrespondingtoclimatevariability