贝恩咨询方法-ProfitPools1解析

Author:DanaPeckReviewer:MichaelCollinsProfitPoolsDecember1998Copyright©1998Bain&Company,Inc.1AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways2Profitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustry’svaluechainPatternofprofitconcentrationinanindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration(seeexample)Forexample,profitsandrevenuesintheautomotiveindustrycanbedividedamongmanyvaluechainactivities-vehiclemanufacturing,newandusedcarsales,gasolineretailing,insurance,after-salesserviceandparts,andleasefinancingalthoughcarmanufacturinganddealersaccountforalmost60%ofindustryrevenueautoleasingandfinancingarebyfarthemostprofitablebusinessesWhatareProfitPools?Profitpoolsanswerthequestion:“Whereandhowismoneybeingmade?”Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert3WhatisProfit?Accountingprofit-representscompany’searningsasformallyreportedmostcommonlyusedasthebasicprofitmeasureexamplesincludenetincomeorearningspersharecalculationsReturnoninvestment-representscompany’searningsaftertakingintoaccountthecostofcapitalinvestedinthebusiness.Twocommonlyusedmeasuresinclude:ROC,accountingbasedReturnonCapital(bookvalue)ROIC,accountingbasedReturnonInvestedCapital(bookvalue)Cash-flowcontribution-company’searningsbeforetakingfixed-assetandcapitalcostsintoaccount(e.g.EBITDA)representstheamountofcashleftfromasaleaftersubtractingthevariablecostsassociatedwiththatsaleusedasabasisfordecision-makinginmature,highfixedcostandcyclicalindustriesProfitcanbedefinedinoneofthreeways:BeawareofdifferencesinaccountingstandardswhenevaluatingcompanieswithprofitsspanningdifferentindustriesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert4Revenuevs.ProfitSplit

TruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesRevenueSplitbyActivityProfitSplitbyActivity$3,865MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%PercentofTotal

Source:PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFinancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis(7/96);Bainestimates

Thepatternofprofitconcentrationinthetruckmanufacturingindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration.TruckManufacturingBusinessExample5WhyUseProfitPools?OfferaviewoftheunderlyingindustrystructureHelpillustratetheeconomicandcompetitiveforcesdrivingtheindustry’sprofitdistributionOfferadifferentperspectiveonanindustryIllustraterelationshipbetweenprofitandrevenuesHighlightspotentialwatchouts(chokepointsinthevaluechain)whichcaninfluencetheprofitflowinanindustryIllustratetheCurrentStateoftheIndustryProvideaCompetitiveAdvantagetoYourClientHelptoDevelopInnovativeStrategiesHelpcompaniesseewhattheirrivalsdon’tseeFosterthepotentialtodictatethetermsofcompetitionwithintheindustryKeepcompaniesabreastofchangesinrapidlychanging(turbulent)industriesalertpotentialshiftsinprofitdistributionalongthevaluechainillustratepotentialchangeinprofitsourcesfromnewentrantsHelpguideimportantdecisionsaboutacompany’soperationandstrategyEncouragerethinkingolddecisionsandpursuingcounterintuitiveinitiativestocreateandcontrolprofitpoolsReducethepossibilityofblindspotsinacompany’sstrategicvisionreducepotentialtooverlookattractiveprofitbuildingopportunitieslessonpotentialtobecometrappedinareasofweak/fadingprofitabilityExampleapplicationsCompaniesthatrecognizethevariabilityofprofitabilityandcanexploitthedeepestpoolswillearnsuperiorreturns.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert6HowProfitPoolsIllustratetheStateoftheIndustryThevaryingconcentrationsofprofitalongthevaluechain(knownastheshapeoftheprofitpool)reflectthecompetitivedynamicsofabusinessprofitconcentrationsresultfromtheactionsandinteractionsofcompaniesandcustomersprofitpoolsforminareaswherebarrierstocompetitionexistprofitpoolsexistinareasthathavebeenoverlookedbycompetitorsEverymarkethasanunevendistributionofprofitbetweenproductcategories,customergroups,geographicregionsand/ordistributionchannelsProfitpoolsarenotstagnantaspowershiftsamongtheplayersinanindustry(competitors,suppliers,andcustomers),thestructureoftheprofitpoolchangesTherearemanydifferentsourcesofprofitinanybusinessProfitpoolsprovideameanstoevaluatethecompetitivedynamicsofanindustry.Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert7ProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExample)Examples:Beawareof“chokepoints”-particularbusinessactivitiesthatcontroltheflowofprofitsthroughoutanindustry.Impact:Controlofachokepointcaninfluencethedistributionofprofitsamongcompetitorsandmoredistantvalue-chainparticipantsIntel’sdominanceofmicroprocessorsEstablishmentofanindustrywidestandardthatallcompaniesmustnowobeyMicrosoft’sdominanceofWindowsConsolidationofcontroloverthecustomerinterface*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertMicro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoftware*PeripheralsServices8Micro-processorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoft-warePeripheralsServices0%10%20%30%40%OperatingMarginShareofIndustryRevenueProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExampleCon.)*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.GilbertAnalyzingtheprofitpoolhasenabledDelltobeprofitableintheleastprofitablepersonalcomputerssegment(seeexample)Althoughchokepointsexistinthecomputerindustry,itisstillpossibleforcompaniestocreateandleveragenewprofitpoolswithinthisindustry.PCIndustryProfitPool100%90%5%10%15%20%25%OperatingMargin

Theautomotiveindustryencompassesmanyvalue-chainactivities.Themostprofitableareasofthecarbusinessarenottheonesthatgeneratethebiggestrevenues.AutomanufacturingNewcardealersUsedcardealersAutoloansLeasingGasolineAutoinsuranceServicerepairAftermarketpartsAutorentalShareofIndustryRevenue100%U.S.AutoIndustryExample10KeyQuestionstoHelpDevelopInnovativeStrategiesWhyhaveprofitpoolsformedwheretheyhave?Aretheforcesthatcreatedthosepoolslikelytochange?Willnew,moreprofitablebusinessmodelsemerge?Howdosomeprofitsourcesexertinfluenceoverothersandshapecompetition?Howdowegainadisproportionateshareofindustryprofits?Buildinganunderstandingofprofitpoolsputsstrategicthinkingonafirmfootingandpromptsthefollowingquestions:Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert11AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways12Applications(1of2)AnalyzingprofitpoolsallowedU-Haultoidentifyalargeuntappedsourceofprofitinthelowmargintruckrentalbusinessseizedthefirstmoveradvantageandenteredaccessorybusinessatalowcostreducedprices(andprofits)incoretruckrentalbusinesstoattractcustomersforhighermarginaccessorybusinessInanticipationofapotentialreconfigurationoftheprofitpoolfrompharmacy-benefitmanagers(PBM),MerckandothersverticallyintegratedthevaluechainandacquiredPBMsinsulatedthemselvesfromnewentrantsandprotectedtheirexistingsourcesofprofitsgainedgreateraccesstopatientinformationincreasedthelikelihoodthatthepoolwouldevolveinabeneficialratherthandestructivewayCompaniescanusetheirunderstandingofprofitpoolsindifferentways:IdentifyNewSourcesofProfitChartAcquisitionandExpansionStrategiesExamplesSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert13Applications(2of2)DellComputerCorp.utilizestheprofitpoolapproachtoevaluatewhichcustomerstopursueandwhichchannelstouse directsalesapproachallowsDelltokeepaportionofdealer’sprofitsforitselfandtosharetherestwithcustomersthroughlowerpricesregularresegmentationofcustomerbaseenablesthemtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomersandreactquicklytonewsourcesofprofitAfterrecognizingthattheindustry’sprofitpoolwasdrivenbythepremiumbeersegments,AnheuserBushrefocusedtheirstrategytoexpandtheirshareofthepremiumsegmentgaineddominanceofthepremiumsegmentthroughincreasedmarketingofpremiumbrandsandbymanagingthepricedifferentialsbetweenpremiumanddiscountbrandsverticalintegrationintocanproductionraisedcompetitivebarriersaroundthepoolbycuttingmanufacturinganddistributioncostDevelopDistributionStrategyGuidePricing,ProductandOperatingDecisionsThecompanythatseeswhatothersdonotwillbebestpreparedtocaptureadisproportionateshareofindustryprofitsSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(May-June1998):OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert14AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways15MappingaProfitPool

Mappingaprofitpoolinvolvesfoursteps.DefinethePoolDeterminetheSizeofthePoolEstimatetheDistributionofProfitsReconciletheEstimatesTasks:Identifywhichvaluechainactivitiesinfluencetheindustry’sabilitytogeneratecurrentandfutureprofitsDevelopabaselineestimateoftheprofitsgeneratedbyallprofitpoolactivitieswithinthevaluechainDeterminetheprofitsgeneratedbyeachactivitywithinthevaluechainComparetheresultsofstep2and3,andreconcilethenumbersListofvaluechainactivitiesinprofitpool(insequentialorder)Estimateoftotalprofitpools(maybearange)PointestimatesofprofitforeachvaluechainactivityFinalestimatesofactivityandtotalpoolprofitsOutput:Step1:Step2:Step3:Step4:Source:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert16Guidelines(DefiningthePool)

Definingthepoolinvolvesidentifyingvaluechainactivitiesrelevanttothebusiness.Takeabroadviewofthevaluechain-lookbeyondtraditionalindustrydefinitionsExaminetheindustryfrom3perspectivesclientcompetitorscustomersTalktoindustryplayersandanalysistouncoverneworemergingbusinessmodelsDon’tdisaggregateactivitiesmorethannecessaryConsiderparallelsfromotherindustriesarethereactivitiesthatcouldsubstituteforactivitiesinthisindustry?ThewayyoudefineyourprofitpoolisunlikelytocoincidewithanytraditionalindustrydefinitionSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert17Guidelines(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)

Determiningthesizeofthepoolinvolvesdevelopingarough,butaccuratebaselineestimatebasedontheavailabledata.TaketheeasiestanalyticalroutesavailableFocusonthelargestcomponentsfirstlargecompaniesstartwiththebiggestplayerswhoaccountforalargeportionoftheindustry’sprofitsgaugetheprofitsofthesmallerplayersbyadjustingtheleader’smarginstoaccountforthesmallerplayer’scompetitiveadvantagesordisadvantagesaddtheprofitstogetherhighvolumeproductsConsiderbuildingestimatesusingtwodifferentmethodologies(ductlevel)soyoucancompareanswerstoseeifyouareintheballparkrangeSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert18Guidelines(EstimatingtheDistributionofProfits)

Estimatingtheprofitsforeachvaluechaininvolvescreativethinking.Gowherethedatais(ducts,customers,channels,companies,orregions,etc.)useproxiesifrelevantdataisunavailablePrioritizefocus-lookatclienteconomics,thenlargepureplayers,largemixedplayers,thenasampleofsmallerplayersusethe80/20rule-inmostcases20%ofthecompaniesconstitute80%oftherevenuesShiftbetweenaggregationanddisaggregationinanalysisaggregations-useinindustrieswheremostoftheplayersfocusononevaluechainactivity“Pureplayers”disaggregation-youwillneedtodisaggregatecompany’sfinancialdataiftheindustry’splayersareverticallyintegrated“mixedplayers”Source:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert19Guidelines(ReconcilingtheEstimates)

Developingfinalestimatesofactivityandtotalprofitscanbeaniterativeprocess.Comparetheestimateoftotalprofitpools(top-downapproach)withestimatescalculatedforeachvaluechainactivity(bottoms-upapproach)Checkassumptionsandcalculationsifthenumbersdon’taddupCollectadditionaldataifnecessaryResolveinconsistenciesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(May-June1998);OritGadieshandJamesL.Gilbert20AgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeaways21TruckManufacturingBusinessExample

Activities:PerformedBy:ProvidepartsfortruckchassisandbodyPerformpreventativeandemergencyserviceontruckchassisandbodyBuildtruckbodytocustomerspecsPreparebodyforandmanageassemblyprocessSellbodytocustomerDeliverintegratedunittocustomerOfferfundsasloansfortruckpurchaseArrangeloanandleasetransactionsSellchassisto/takeorderfromcustomerManageconnectionofchassisandTEM*BuildtruckchassisaccordingtocustomerspecsCollectcomponentsfrommanufacturersChassismanufacturerChassisdealerIndependentgarageorpartsstoreTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassismanufacturerChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,SalesandAssemblyParts&ServiceRetailFinanceNotes:*TruckEquipmentManufacturersThefirststepwastodefinethepoolbyidentifyingthevaluechainactivitiesrelevanttothebusiness.SevereServiceValueChain(DefiningthePool)22OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMack

~$500-700MM0%20%40%60%80%100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)Source:BainanalysisEstimatedprofitsfromtop5companiesbasedon10KsandannualreportsPerformed80/20analysistodeterminetotalprofitpoolassumed20%ofthecompaniesconstituted80%oftheprofitsestimatedprofitsofremaining20smallercompaniesRealitycheckedestimateswithroughindustrycalculationsEstimatedtotalprofitpoolaround$500-$700MMbasedon:$3.9Bindustryrevenuesassumedaveragegrossmarginsof13%-18%MethodologyTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleAroughestimateofthetotalprofitpoolwasbuiltusingoverallprofitestimatesfromthetop5competitors.23Note:OperatingMarginusedasthemeasureofprofitabilitySource:CompanyFinancials;AnalystsReports;CompanyInterviews

TotalIndustryMcNeilusHeilLeachKnapheideOmahaVactorOttawaAdvanceRestofIndustry7.1%12.0%9.0%9.0%8.6%8.2%6.6%5.8%3.0%3.9%0%3%5%8%10%13%OperatingMarginsforBodyCompaniesProfitestimatesweregeneratedforeachactivitybasedontheoperatingmarginsofthetopindustryplayers.TruckManufacturingBusinessExampleExampleActivity:BodyManufacturingBodyCompanyMargins(DeterminingtheDistributionofProfitsforanActivitywithinaValueChain)24OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackTruckFinanceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyPartsandServiceChassisManufacturingandSalesTopDownBottomsUp~$500-$700MM$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%EstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(ReconcilingtheEstimates)Source:BainanalysisChassis+Parts&Services+BodyManufacturing+FinancetherangeapproximatedinthetopdownapproachFinalestimatesforeachvaluechainactivityiswithintherangeofouroriginaltotalprofitpoolestimateTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleTotalprofitestimatesfromthetopdownapproachwerecomparedtothosefromthebottomsupapproach.25OtherGeneralMotorsVolvoKenworthFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackChassisDealersOtherOttawaAdvanceMixerVactorOmahaStahlLeachKnapheideMcNeilusHeil

ChassisDealersChassisManufacturersChassisDealersChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,SalesandAssemblyTruckFinancePartsService$305MM$35MM$60MM$55MM$85MM$60MMTotal

EBIT=$600MM0%20%40%60%80%100%PercentofTotalContributioninEachActivityOncetheestimateswerereconciled,thefinalprofitmapenabledtheclienttoseewhichsegmentswerethemostprofitableandwhichcontrolledthemajorityofprofitpool.EstimatedMargin:12.3%1.4%7.1%24.6%11.2%TruckManufacturingBusinessExample35.0%

Source:PBIRProfileoftheU.S.TruckBodyIndustry;R.L.PolkRegistrationDatabase;LiteratureSearch;TEMFinancials;PriorBainPLPanalysis(7/96);BainestimatesSevereServiceVehicleProfitMap(1997)26

DealerownershipwouldcreateaccesstohighmarginactivitiesChassismanufacturingandaftermarketpartsaremostprofitableactivitiesH