J.P.摩根-全球投资策略-关键货币观点：美元强势不退

KeyCurrencyViews

StrongUSDisn'tretiring

.WehavebeenrecommendingadefensiveandlongUSDstanceincurrenciesallyear,giventhecombinationofsoftgrowth,highinflationandtighteningmonetarypolicy.

.Developmentsinthepastmonth—evenmorehawkishcentralbanksincludingtheFed,plummetingPMIandconsumerconfidence,risingenergypricesinEurope—allreinforcethisstance…

.…werecommendedupsizingdefensiveexposureintra-month.IncreasedUSDlongsvs.G10highbetaFX;initiatedshortcross(NZD)/yenasalate-cyclehedgeandstayshortEM.

.BiasonJPYhasshifted.USD/JPYprojectedtobehigherinbaseline(140)butfocusisnowonJPY-crosseswhichofferattractivelate-cyclehedges.

.KeyFXforecastsremainunchanged.EUR/USDisstillexpectedtotestparity;terminalUSD/CNYtargetremainsat6.95.ChangesinFXtargetsaregenerallyidiosyncratic.

.G10:USD/JPYpeakuppedto140.GBP/USDtroughunchangedat1.14.MajorupgradeforCHFonSNBpivot;EUR/CHFterminaltargetto0.92from1.02.USD/CAD4Q1.30(unchanged),2Q'231.33.EUR/NOK10.35(from9.90)onglobalgrowthrisks.

.EM:USD/KRWterminal1320(1330);BearishINR;1y80.0(79.0).USD/BRL5.30in4Q.USD/MXNtrajectoryloweredbroadly(1Q2320.50from21.6).EUR/HUFyear-end425(395).EUR/CZK1y26.5from26.0.

USrecessionprobabilitycontinuestorise,amovethatisusuallyaccompaniedbyastronger

USD

Marketdepthbymarket*;Startingvalueindexedto100

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

USDTWI;%oya

Probabilityofrecession-alleconomicindicators

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

19781989200020112022

Source:J.P.Morgan

Seepage42foranalystcertificationandimportantdisclosures.

GlobalFXStrategy&GlobalEM

Research

24June2022

GlobalFXStrategy&EMMarkets

MeeraChandanAC

(44-20)7134-2924

meera.chandan@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

PaulMeggyesi

(44-20)7134-2714

paul.meggyesi@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

ArindamSandilya

(65)6882-7759

arindam.x.sandilya@

JPMorganChaseBank,N.A.,SingaporeBranch

BenjaminShatil

(81-3)6736-1730

benjamin.shatil@

JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.

PatrickRLocke

(1-212)834-4254

patrick.r.locke@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

BenKJarman

(61-2)9003-7982

ben.k.jarman@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesAustraliaLimited

TohruSasaki

(81-3)6736-7717

tohru.sasaki@

JPMorganSecuritiesJapanCo.,Ltd.

JasonHunter

(1-212)270-0034

jason.x.hunter@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

AnezkaChristovova

(44-20)7742-2630

anezka.christovova@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesplc

GiselaRBrant

(1-212)834-3947

gisela.brant@

J.P.MorganSecuritiesLLC

Contents

KeyCurrencyDrivers

Technicals

USDIndex

JPY

EUR

GBP

CHF

NOK

SEK

CAD

AUD&NZD

MXN

BRL

ZAR&TRY

CE4&ILS

KRW&INR

CNY

J.P.MorganForecasts

2

5

9

11

13

15

17

19

21

23

25

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

2

MeeraChandan

(44-20)7134-2924

meera.chandan@

GlobalFXStrategy

24June2022

PatrickRLocke

(1-212)834-4254

patrick.r.locke@

KeyCurrencyDrivers

.WehavebeenrecommendingadefensiveandlongUSDstanceincurrenciesallyeargiventhecombinationofsoftgrowth,highinflationandtighteningmonetarypolicy.

.Developmentsinthepastmonth—evenmorehawkishcentralbanksincludingtheFed,plummetingPMIandconsumerconfidence,risingenergypricesinEurope—allreinforcethisstance…

.…werecommendedupsizingdefensiveexposureintra-month.IncreasedUSDlongsvs.G10highbetaFX;initiatedshortcross(NZD)/yenasalate-cyclehedgeandstayshortEM.

.BiasonJPYhasshifted.USD/JPYprojectedtobehigherinbaseline(140)butfocusisnowonJPY-crosseswhichofferattractivelatecyclehedges.

.KeyFXforecastsremainunchanged.EUR/USDisstillexpectedtotestparity;terminalUSD/CNYtargetsremainsat6.95.ChangesinFXtargetsaremostlyidiosyncratic.

.G10:USD/JPYpeakuppedto140.GBP/USDtroughunchangedat1.14.MajorupgradeforCHFonSNBpivot;EUR/CHFterminaltargetto0.92from1.02.USD/CAD4Q1.30(unchanged).EUR/NOK10.35(from9.90)onglobalgrowthrisks.

.EM:USD/KRW1y1320(1330);BearishINR;1y80.0(79.0).USD/BRL5.30in4Q.USD/MXNtrajectoryloweredbroadly(1Q2320.50from21.6).EUR/HUF

year-end425(395).EUR/CZK1y26.5from26.0.

Newcyclehighsforthedollarindex

Thedollarisbroadlystrongeroverthepastmonth,withthebroadindexupnearly2%makingnewpost-COVIDhighsintra-month.WhileJPYhasledthewaylowerfollowingasteadfastlydovishBoJ(again;exhibit1),highbetacurrencies,particularlycommodityFXwhichhasbeenrelativelyresilienttillAprilalsoledthewaylower.USDappreciationinJuneinparticularhascomeamidfinancialmarketsbehavinginamoretraditional“flight-to-quality”manner—equitiesintheredglobally,commoditypricessofterandlowerDMyields.ThemoveshavecomeamidpoorliquiditynotjustinFX,butinmacromarketsmorebroadly(exhibit2).

Exhibit1:CommodityFX:lessresilientthanatthestartoftheyearasabroadergrowthconcernstakeover

IndexofCCYperformancevs.USD;January1,2022=100

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

EMCIG10commFX

JPY

EMcommFX*

Apr22

Jun22

Feb22

Source:J.P.Morgan

Exhibit2:LiquidityinmacromarketsisapproachingitsshallowestsincetheonsetofCOVID

Marketdepthbymarket*;Startingvalueindexedto100

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

FXMarketdepth

Bundsmarketdepth

Jun20Dec20Jun21Dec21Jun22

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

*Sizeofthetop5bidandofferlevelsoftheorderbook;averagedfor5minutesnapshotsfora2-hourliquidwindowbypair.

+Marketdepthisthesumofthethreebidsandoffersbyqueueposition,averagedbetween8:30and10:30amdaily

Source:J.P.Morgan,Externalvenues

Norespitefromgrowth—PMIsFlash-ingdefensive…

ThekeydatathisweekwerethedisappointingflashPMIs,whichreinforcedourdefensivestanceinFXmarkets.ThemissinPMIwassubstantial,2ptsinboththeEuropeanandUScomposite,pushingourDMoutputPMItoitslowestsinceJanuary.OureconomistsnotethatthePMIsuggestthatgrowthistracking1.2%ptsbelowour2Qforecast,andincombinationwithplummetingconsumerconfidenceinbothregions,isincreasingdownsiderisksourbaselinegrowthoutlook(Flash-ingwarningsigns,NoraSzentivanyietal).USrecessionprobabilitycontinuesto

3

MeeraChandan

(44-20)7134-2924

meera.chandan@

PatrickRLocke

(1-212)834-4254

patrick.r.locke@

rise—basedoneconomicdataalone,theoddsofarecessioninthenextyearhasrisento36%,anoutcomewhichoverthelong-runtendstobesupportiveofastrongerdollar(exhibit3).

…reinforcingdefensivestance…

FXrecommendationsthusremainunchangedfromthatoutlinedinourmid-yearoutlook,i.e.wemaintainabullishstanceonthedollarvs.growthchallengedandhighbetaFX,withlate-cyclehedges.Thekeymotivationsbehindthisviewremain:

First,inflationcontinuestofirmandispushingeventhemostdovishcentralbankstonormalize.TheFedwasthehighestprofileoneandhasindicatedreadinesstogorestrictiveinordertocurbinflation.EventhemostdovishliketheRiksbankandSNBarebeingpulledintothefraywiththeBoJgettingtestedonYCC.Thisweek,theNorgesBankalsosurprisedwitha50bphike.EMAsiacentralbanksarelaggingbutoureconomistshavepenciledinadditionalhikesforMexico,SouthAfricaandCEE.

Second,growthmomentumcontinuestoslowandlatecycleanxietieshavenotablyincreased.GrowthoutsidetheUShadalreadybeenslowingsinceFebruary,butnowitisslowingintheUSaswellsowehavetransitionedfromUSexceptionalismtoaglobalslowdown.Globaluncertainties(EU'senergydependence/recentgaspriceincrease,China’szeroCOVID,USlatecycleanxieties)arealllikelytoweighonsentiment.

Finally,liquidityinmacromarketshasplummetedsubstantiallyandisapproachingitsshallowestsincetheonsetofCOVID(exhibit2)andFXvolisnotthatexpensive.

…withlate-cyclehedges

Specifictraderecommendationsandkeycallsare:

.ShorttheeuroblocviaEURandGBP.EUR/USDstillexpectedtotestparity.

.BroadlyoverweightUSDvs.highbetaFX(G10commodityFXplusSEK)andunderweightEM.LookforUSD/CNYtoapproach6.95.

.Longtraditionallydefensivefunders(CHF,JPY).

oBullishCHFonaSNBpivotwasakeythemeinourannualoutlookfromsixmonthsago;SNBwestayoverweight.

oBiasonJPYhasevolvedfromlongUSD/JPYasaUSyieldproxytoshorthighbetacross-yenasalate-cyclehedge.Werecommendlatecyclehedgesviashorthighbeta/yencrosses(short

NZD/JPYdeepOTMdigiput).

GlobalFXStrategy

24June2022

.HaveexposuretoareducedsizeofoverweightsincommodityFXrelativeto1H.Forinstance,inG10,CADandAUDarepreferredcandidatesfollowedbyNOK,allexpressedinRVformat.NeutralizedEMcommodityFXlongsinrecentweeks.

Exhibit3:USrecessionprobabilitycontinuestorise,amovethatisusuallyaccompaniedbyastrongerUSD

Marketdepthbymarket*;Startingvalueindexedto100

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Probabilityofrecession-alleconomicindicators

USDTWI;%oya

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

19781989200020112022

Source:J.P.Morgan

Theforecastbottomline:Primarilyidiosyncratictweaks.USDstillprojectedtostrengthen

G10forecastrevisionsforthemonthofJuneareprimarilyidiosyncraticinnature(exhibit4).Chiefamongtheseisabearishrevisiontoyen-wenowcallforUSD/JPYat140atyear-end(prior133by1Q'23)althoughourriskbiastoJPYisnowmoretwo-sided(seeJPY).CHF,ontheotherhand,featuresa~10%upgradeonthebackoftheSNB’swatershedpolicypivot.Wemark1H’23forecastforUSD/CADat1.33(upfrom1.30),whilewereviseourAUD/USDandNZD/USD1-2clowereachacrosstheforecasthorizongivenrisinggrowthconcerns,butmaintainupwardslopes.Therearenoforecastrevisionsto

EUR/USD(year-end1.01)orGBP/USD(1.16).

InEMFX,wemakerevisionstokeycurrencyforecastsincludingMXN&CNY.USD/MXNmarkedloweracrossthehorizon(1Q'2320.50from21.6);adjustmentstoUSD/CNYforecastsfocusedmorein2H’22,withterminaltargetunchanged(USD/CNY6.95peakextendedfrom1Q’23to2Q).

Onnet,thebroadUSDindexisloweredby1%acrossthishorizon,butstillcallsfor+2.4%appreciationfromspotlevels,similartolastmonth.

USDprojectsstrongervsmostpeers…

.JPY:BullishUSD/JPY,tacticallyneutral.New2022targetof140.USD/JPYcanmovehigheronpolicy

4

MeeraChandan

(44-20)7134-2924

meera.chandan@

GlobalFXStrategy

24June2022

PatrickRLocke

(1-212)834-4254

patrick.r.locke@

differentiation,thoughaBoJpivotremainsarisk.Cross-JPYshortsserveasapotentialhedgetolate-cyclestress.Mid-2023targetof138.

.EUR:Holdnear-termparityforecasts;strategicallyshort.Lingeringenergydependence,stagflationstressandfragmentationconcernshighlighttheECB’sextraordinarytrade-offsforEUR.EUR/USDatparityin3Q,year-end1.01(unchanged),new2Q’231.03.

.GBP:BearishGBP/USD;strategicallyshort.InflationremainsthehighestinG10whilegrowthinto

2023willundershootmostpeers.StayshortvsUSDandCHF.GBP/USD4Q’221.15,2Q’231.17.EUR/GBP

flatat0.88acrossthehorizon.

.CAD:Tacticallybutcautiouslylong.Morequestionsaround2023.CADfundamentalsarestrongfornow(ToT,CAgrowth).Butlate-cyclerisksarerisingandbiasUSD/CADisup.Riskpremiumembeddedin1H’23.1.30through4Q(unchanged),1.33in2023.

.NOKandSEK:NOKdowngradedby5%.

EUR/NOKputat10.35(prior3Q9.90)neartermwith2Q23at10.00.NOKischeapbutdiscountonglobalgrowthconcernsshouldremainelevated;ifrecessionrisksrise,thensotoowilldiscountonNOK.SEKischeap;EUR/SEKtargets(10.20)leftunchangedpre-RiksbanknextweekbutwithbiasforweakerSEKforecasts.

...butamajorforecastupgradeforCHF…

.CHF:Majorupgrades.EUR/CHFterminaltargetrevisedfrom1.02to0.92onthebackoftheSNB'sjumbo50bphike.CHFwillbelessimpededbySNBFXinterventiongoingforwardandshouldtrendtowardsmarket-clearinglevels.1yUSD/CHF0.89.LongvsEURincashandviaaEUR/CHFdigitalriskreversal.

…andstill-constructiveforecastsinantipodeans,scandisvsUSD

.AUD:ForecasthorizonmarkedlowerbutkeepingupwardtrajectoryvsUSD;strategicallylongvsNZD.AUDstillcheaptoToT.Year-endrevisedto0.70(from0.73);new2Q'230.74.AUD/NZD1Q'231.14(unchgd),new2Q’231.17.

.NZD:1yloweredto0.63;strategicallyshort.

NZD/USDmarkedtomarketlower–1H’230.63(prior1Q0.66).TighteningalreadymoreadvancedinNZ.AUD/NZD1Q’231.14;ToTstillsupportiveofthepair.

EM:UWEMFX;lessbearishLatam

.Asia:UWandbearishCNH.BuyUSD/Asiaondips.USD/CNHnear-termforecastsmarkedtomarketlower,

steepeningtheforecastprofile(4Q’226.80from6.95).Butterminaltargetremains6.95in2Q’23.Holdshort-CNYbasket.KRW&TWDvulnerabletoCNYweakness.USD/KRW1y1320(1330),USD/TWD

29.50(unchanged).BearishINR;1y80.0(79.0)despitehighyield.USD/IDR14600(14800).ShortINR,HKD,THB,PHP.

.EMEAEM:Stillvulnerable.UW;shortHUF,CZK,TRY.CAimbalanceshavedeterioratedinCEE&TRY;regionalhikingcyclesbecomingfatigued.

EUR/HUFyear-end425(395),2Q’23440.EUR/CZK1y26.5from26.0.USD/TRY1Q’2321.0(19.5);newmid-'2322.0.USD/ZAR4Q’2216.25(16.5)butterminaltargetunrevised(16.75).

.Latam:MorebalancedoutlookforLatam;MW(OW

CLPvsUWCOP).Latamhasbeenresilientoncommoditiesandcarry,butscopeforoutperformingUSDisnarrow.Risks(incl.political)concentratedin2H'22forUSD/BRL;forecastpeaksat5.30in4Q’22beforesettlingat5.25(priorpeak5.30in1Q).USD/MXNtrajectoryloweredbroadly(1Q’2320.50from21.6);new2Q’2320.75.CLPlowered(1y875from840).

Exhibit4:Forecastchangesweregenerallyidiosyncraticthismonth

ChangesinterminalforecastsvsUSD

CHF

MXN

PLN

IDR

NOK

SEK

EUR

BRL

GBP

KRW

SGD

TWD

HKD

CNY

ZAR

RUB

DXY

JPMUSD

Chgin+1yTerminalFcast

MYR

CZK

PHP

INR

PEN

AUD

THB

COP

CAD

ILS

JPY

CLP

NZD

HUF

TRY

-15.0%-10.0%-5.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%

Source:J.P.Morgan

5

JasonHunter

(1-212)270-0034

jason.x.hunter@

FixedIncomeStrategy

24June2022

Technicals

.TheEUR/USDtacticalreboundfromthe1.0299-

1.0431supportlayerstallsbelow1.0604-1.0627

tacticalresistance.Apushthroughthelatterwouldseekkeymedium-termresistanceat1.0768-1.0843.Wecontinuetolookformorebasebuildingbetweenthosetwoextremesintheweeksahead.

.GBP/USDshowssignsofdecelerationatthepotentiallowerendoftherangeonboththedailyandweeklycharts.Lookformorebasebuildingnear1.2008-1.2050support.Initialresistanceislayeredat1.240-1.2480and1.2636-1.2639.Ultimately,wethinkthemid-Aprreaccelerationofthebeartrendnear1.30marksakeylonger-terminflectionforthemarket.

.TheUSD/JPYrallyshowssomemomentumlossontheshort-andmedium-termtimeframes,whichindicatesapotentiallymaturingtrend.However,thepairneedstobreakbelow131.345-131.494toconfirmashort-termreversal.Wesuspecttherecentpriceoscillationsmarkthebeginningofabroadertoppattern.

.USD/CADfadesatkeyresistancesurrounding1.30asriskymarketstrytofindsomefooting.Onashort-termbasis,abreakbelowthe1.2905and1.2860Junlowswouldputourviewforcontinuedrangeactiononmoresolidground.

.AUD/USDattemptstocarveoutthelowerendofarangenearlonger-termsupportat0.6620-0.6757andamidextremeoversoldconditions.Wewillwatchformoredefinitivesignsofdecelerationandformean-reversiontodevelopontopofsupport,withshort-termresistancenear0.7240-0.7284.Ultimately,wethinkthatresistancecanbreaklaterintheyearandthepaircantradeintheupperendofabroader

range.

.USD/KRWpressedthroughkeylonger-termresistancenear1300beforereversingintraweek.Momentumisnotconfirmingthenewhighoftheweeklychartsandashort-termreversalherewouldlikelytriggeramomentumdivergencesellsignals.

Initialsupportsitsat1291-1300,1267,and1235-1247. Conversely,nextsupportrestsnear1320.

EUR/USDbouncefrom1.0299-1.0462stallsat1.0604-1.0627tacticalresistancewithinadevelopingtradingrangeandpotentialbasepattern

TheEUR/USDbouncefromthe1.0299-1.0431supportareastallsattacticalresistancethatincludesthe1.060450-dayMAand1.0627Jun1low(Exhibit1).TheMay-Junrangeboundpriceactionpausesthebroaderbeartrendfromthe1.2350Jan2021peaknearthe2015-2017rangelows.Aswehighlightedinlastweek’supdate,weeklymomentumdivergencesacrossanumberofdollarpairsandextremesentimentconditionsrealizedacrossmultiplemarkets(allatleasttangentiallyrelatedtoaninflationscare)leaveuslookingforthepotentialthattheUSdollartopsoutthissummer.FortheEUR/USD,wesuspectthatbasepatterncontinuestomostlyplayoutabovethe1.0462Jan2015low,1.04312018-2021equalswingsobjective,1.035Maytrough,1.0341Jan2017bottom,and1.02992014-2018.618swingobjective.Keyresistanceremainsatthe1.0768-1.0806Mar-Aprlows,Fibonacciretracementconfluencethatroughlysitsinthatarea,andthe1.0843violatedDec2015-Mar2020trendline.Abreakabovethatareawouldconfirmamoresignificanttrendreversal,inourview.Conversely,adownsideaccelerationfromcurrentlevelswouldturnourattentiontothe1.0215Jul2012highand0.99Oct200078.6%retraceasthenextlonger-termsupportlevels.

Exhibit1:TheEUR/USDtacticalreboundfromthe1.0299-1.0431supportlayerstallsbelow1.0604-1.0627tacticalresistance.Apushthroughthelatterwouldseekkeymedium-termresistanceat1.0768-1.0843.Wecontinuetolookformorebasebuildingbetweenthosetwoextremesintheweeksahead.

EUR/USD,dailybars

Source:J.P.Morgan,CQG

6

JasonHunter

(1-212)270-0034

jason.x.hunter@

GlobalFXStrategy

24June2022

GBP/USDshowssignsofdeceleration

nearimportantsupportat1.2008-1.2050onboththedailyandweeklycharts

TheGBP/USDstagesaweeklongconsolidation,pausinglastweek'sreboundfromlonger-termsupportinthe1.2008-1.2072(Exhibit2).ParametersinthatareaincludetheMay2020low,Mar202078.6%retrace,andJun2021-Jan20221.618swingobjective.Thelatesttestofsupportproducedasetofbullishmomentumdivergencesignalsonthedailytimeframe.Moreimportantly,therecentpriceactionproducedsimilarsignsofdecelerationontheweeklycharts,wherethenewlowisnotbeingconfirmedbymomentumindicators.Thatsetup,coupledwithstretchedsentimentconditions,favorsaperiodofmean-reversiontodevelopfromsupport.Tactically,initialresistancesitsatthe1.2408Jun16pivotand1.248050-dayMA.Nextresistancecomesinatthe1.2636-1.2639Mayrangehighsandthe1.2731violatedMay2021trendchannel.Biggerpicture,wethinkthedollaristryingtocarveoutthelowerendofarallyandhasthepotentialtomarkanimportantmedium-terminflection.Whilewethinkwecanseeadditionalbasebuildingintheformofbackingandfillingoverthenear-term,weviewthe1.2973-1.30Apr13

low/Apr22breakdownandreaccelerationofthebeartrendtomarkakeylonger-termchartinflection.Conversely,broaderrangesupportsitsatthe1.1491/1.1409Mar2020andOct2016troughs.

Exhibit2:GBP/USDshowssignsofdecelerationatthepotentiallowerendoftherangeonboththedailyandweeklycharts.Lookformorebasebuildingnear1.2008-1.2050support.Initialresistanceislayeredat1.240-1.2480and1.2636-1.2639.Ultimately,wethinkthemid-Aprreaccelerationofthebeartrendnear1.30marksakeylonger-terminflectionforthemarket.

GBP/USD,dailybars

Source:J.P.Morgan,CQG

USD/JPYrallyshowstentativemomentumlossondailyandweeklytimeframes,butneedstobreak131.345-131.494supporttoconfirmareversal

USD/JPYgiveshighfrequencybearishdivergencesignalafterthereboundfromkeysupportat131.345-131.494achieveda136.72freshcyclehigh(Exhibit3).Thedailymomentumdivergencesellsignalscombinewiththeweeklypatterntosuggestamaturingbulltrend,butonethatisn'tclearlyoveryet.Inourview,abreakbelowthesupportzonenotedaboveandthe130.49850-dayMAwouldbethefirstsignthatareversalistakinghold.Lookforthe126.365May24lowand125.860Junpeaktoputafloorunderthemarketthissummer.Alternatively,asustainedrallythroughthe135.20Jan2002peakwouldturnourattentiontolonger-termlevelssurroundingthe147.621998peak.Wedonotanticipatearallytogetnearthatarea.

Exhibit3:TheUSD/JPYrallyshowssomemomentumlossontheshort-andmedium-termtimeframes,whichindicatesapotentiallymaturingtrend.However,thepairneedstobreakbelow131.345-131.494toconfirmashort-termreversal.Wesuspecttherecentpriceoscillationsmarkthebeginningofabroadertoppattern.

USD/JPY,dailybars

Source:J.P.Morgan,CQG

USD/CADrallystallsatbroadrangeresistanceasriskymarketstrytofindsomefooting

TheUSD/CADrallystallsatakeyconfluenceofresistancenear1.30asriskymarketstrytofindsomefooting(Exhibit4).Theextremesentimentconditionsacrossanarrayofmarketsachievedasthepairprobedwhathasbeenrangeresistancesinceearly-2021leftuslookingforthetrendtofade.Whilethathasplayedoutsofar,wewouldneedtoseeadeclinesurpassthe1.2905Jun21lowand1.2860Jun16lowtoputtheviewonsolidground.Untilthathappens,wesuspectthrowbackstothe1.3077Maypeakand1.3137Sep202078.6%retracetoquicklyreverse.Movingaverage

7

JasonHunter

(1-212)270-0034

GlobalFixedIncomeStrategy

24June2022

jason.x.hunter@

supportremainsclusteredat1.2677-1.2803,withbroaderrangesupportnear1.24.Wesuspectthatareawillkeepafloorunderthemarketforthemonthsahead.Conversely,andifourrangeviewprovesincorrect,asustainedupsidebreakoutwouldturnourattentiontothe1.3230May-Nov2021equalswingsobjective,1.3383Mar202050%retrace,and1.3421Sep2020highasthenextresistancezone.

Exhibit4:USD/CADfadesatkeyresistancesurrounding1.30asriskymarketstrytofindsomefooting.Onashort-termbasis,abreakbelowthe1.2905and1.2860Junlowswouldputourviewforcontinuedrangeactiononmoresolidground.

USD/CAD,weeklybars

Source:J.P.Morgan,CQG

AUD/USDattemptstocarveoutthelowerendofarangenearlonger-termsupportat0.6620-0.6757

TheAUD/USDisretestinglonger-termsupportinthe0.6620-0.6757areaafterthelatestbouncefromthatareafailedtoproducemeaningfulandlastingfollowthrough(Exhibit5).ThatareaincludestheMar202050%retraceandApr-Mayequalswingsobjective.PriortotheCOVID-erabreakdowns,thatareahadprovidedlonger-termsupportforthemarketsince2016andmorerecentlyrangelowsin2018-2019.Webelievethepaircouldbecarvingoutthelowerendofarangenearsupportandamidextremeoversoldconditionsacrossseveralriskymarkets.Whilewearenotseeingthedefinedsignalingwesawnearsupportlastmonth,giventheimportanceofthatareaandcross-assetdynamicandpotentialendtodollarrally,wethinksupportwillholdhere.Onashort-termbasis,wethinkwecanseemean-reversiondevelopwithresistancelayeredatthe0.7070Jun16pivot,0.708850-dayMA,andthen0.7232-0.7284200-dayMAandJun3high.Biggerpicture,wethinkthepairspendssometimetradinginarangeandeventuallycanextendthroughresistancetotheupperendofabroadermulti-yearrange.Medium-termresistanceisclusteredinthe0.755-0.7665area.WerecognizetherearealotofriskstoaviewthatwouldseeAUD/USDtradingat0.75andabove.TheviewwouldrequirebotharesurgenceinChinaaswellasstabilityontheUSfront.Currently,thereismountingriskforapro-cyclicalleaningviewandas

centralbanksmovetotightenmonetarypolicy.Intheeventourbasecaseprovesincorrect,the0.6462Mar202061.8%retracemarksnextsupport.

Exhibit5:AUD/USDattemptstocarveoutthelowerendofarangenearlonger-termsupportat0.6620-0.6757andamidextremeoversoldconditions.Wewillwatchformoredefinitivesignsofdecelerationandformean-reversiontodevelopontopofsupport,withshort-termresistancenear0.7240-0.7284.Ultimately,wethinkthatresistancecanbreaklaterintheyearandthepaircantradeintheupperendofabroaderrange.

AUD/USD,dailybars

Source:J.P.Morgan,CQG

USD/KRWshowsverytentativesignsofdecelerationnearlonger-termresistanceat1300

USD/KRWpressedhigherthroughkeylonger-termresistancenear1300beforereversingintraweek.ThatareaincludestheJun2021trendchannelhigh,mid-May2022andMar2020twinpeaks,an