国际期货市场运作第组我国燃油期货分析

我国燃油期货分析Group2:纪晓锋,李世成,张喆,刘岛,商务英语0611一、FundamentalAnalysisThegenerallysituationoffueloilfuturesprices.2009年6月9日，上海燃料油0908合约报价约为每吨3723元2Thefueloilfuturesmarketwillbebetterforlongposition.Why?ThroughthesupplyanddemandNowadays:theworldover-supplyoffueloil.Thereisasurplusof53.46milliontonsofworldoilsupplyin2002,butintermsofregionalbalance,ashortageofdemandfortheAsia-PacificandNorthAmerica,theneedforalargenumberofimportsfromotherregions;theformerSovietUnion,LatinAmericaandtheMiddleEasthaveagreatersurplusoffueloil.3Thefuturesupplyanddemandoffueloil1.Asia-Pacific

regionwillcontinuetodemandtheexistenceofahugegap.Whiletheformer

SovietUnionwilldeclineinsupplycapacity,butisstilloutsidetheabilityforallregionsoftheworldlargest,almostdemandtheAsia-Pacificregionandaconsiderablegap.2.Africahasabout22milliontonsoffueloilsurplus3.Asia-Pacificregionoverthenextfewyearswillcontinuetobetheworld'smostactiveoiltrade,Singaporeasaninternationaloiltradeandoiltransitcenterwillhavealargeamountoffueloilre-exports4Thesituationoffueloiltransaction5Thesituationoffueloilinventory6Relevanteconomicindex道琼斯工业指数：7CPI&PPIChina’sCPIfell1.4percent,andPPIfell7.2%inMayU.S.consumerpriceindex(CPI)increasedby0.6%.andPPIup1.4%inMayGDPThefirstquarterof2009increased6.1percentinChina,againstthebackdropoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,itismeansoveralleconomicperformanceduringthefirstquarterbetterthanexpectedInU.S.,thefirstquarterGDProse0.7percent,higheroverseassalesofthereasonsforpushingupGDP.Economistsexpectedavalueof0.8percentoryears.Thefirstquarterof02-yearincreaseistheweakestgrowthsincetheendoftheyear.Economistsexpecttheeconomywillreboundinthesecondquarter.EconomicsituationofChina,U.S.andEuropeItiseasytoseethatChina,theUnitedStatesandEurope'seconomicsituationisnotquitewellinthewholeeconomy,butitisstillintherecoveryphase,andslowlyturnforthebetter8Futures-relatedimpact:crudeoil本周原油市场涨势有所趋缓，整体涨幅2.61%。国内燃油市场本周主力换月至909合约，走势上依旧跟随国际原油市场，震荡上行，盘中创出年内新高至3838元，本周涨幅逾4%，剔除端午节补涨因素外，整体上沪油走势仍弱于原油市场。原油市场短期内快速上扬主要依靠人们对经济复苏预期以及美元快速走软，与其基本面供需并无较大关联。9TheforeignpriceoffueloilNewYorkoilpricebroke70U.S.dollars,arecordhighof7months10Breakingnews,events1.ChinaNationalPetroleumCorporationhavefoundagiantoilfieldwhichhasascaleof1billiontoninBoHaiBaytidalarea.2.Thepriceofcrudeoilhasdeclinedover70%.

08年在衰退风潮的刺激下，盛极一时的原油价格，也从今年7月11日的147.27美元每桶一路下滑至每桶35美元，跌幅超过70%。11123.NPC&CPPCCinfluencedworldeconomy.中国日报网中国在线消息：当地时间2日下午，包括全球主要经济体的二十国集团（G20）峰会在伦敦落幕。为应对全球金融危机，各国领导人同意斥资1.1万亿美元挽救全球经济。134.APECsummitmeetingissuedanstatementthattheyobjectprotecionism.5.Coalpriceoverallworldwidefallsonaccountoftheslowdownofworldeconomy.6.ThatIrankeepsahard-linestandinNuclearIssuesisstillthecoreofgeopoliticalcollision.TheproblemaboutIranianNuclearIssuesappearssharper.14Conclusion目前原油市场以及美元走势是整体商品走势领头羊，而美元经过快速下挫后存在技术性反弹需求，短期内将给予商品一定压力；原油市场短期将试探70美元关口，若能站稳70美元则有进一步上行空间，若遇阻原油或将回撤至62附近支撑位。中期来看原油仍保持着良好的上升通道，国内燃油市场虽有基本面不利因素拖累其涨势，但在原油市场走好支撑下后期依旧维持震荡上行走势。15二.TechnicalAnalysis

16InfluenceoftheforeignmarketMarket：NYMEXChartPatterns：DailyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油08Date：09.6.81718ChartPatterns：weeklyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油081920Market：NYMEXChartPatterns：MonthlyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)美燃油08Date：09年6月8日2122Market：上海交易市场ChartPatterns：DailyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82324ChartPatterns：weeklyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油09082526Market：上海交易市场ChartPatterns：MonthlyCandlestickChartingsRIS(relativestrengthindicator)燃油0908Date：09.6.82728CONCLUSIONInshortterm,thepriceoffueloilwillkeeposcillating.Inlongterm.Thepriceoffueloilw