商用车生态系统的未来-2022-11-商用车

THENEXTGENERATIONOFTRUCKSExecutiveSummaryOEMsthatwanttosuccessfullydesignanddeliverthenextgenerationoftrucksmustmastertheconvergenceofthethreebigshiftsintruckplatforms–autonomous,connected,electric:fTheperfectstormforre-imaginingtransportationandlogisticsTopstrategicconcernsthatEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompanieswillneedtoaddressinthenext2–3years61%31%25%23%20%19%16%16%15%13%Shorttermemergency:Shorttermemergency:CEOofGirtekaGroupMediumtermpreoccupation:Mediumtermpreoccupation:CEOofBudbeeLongtermchallenges:Longtermchallenges:EUSustainableandSmartMobilityStrategyVisionZerotargetsOtherconcerns,suchaslaborshortagesandpoliticalvolatilitydonotrankatthetop;however,9%theyarecompoundingtheimpactofotherfactorsofchange.Forinstance,internationaleconomic3Toimplementresilient,agileandcompetitivestrategies,mostEuropeantransportationandlogisticswillinvestinthenextgenerationoftrucksImpactofstrategicconcernsonEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompanies’fleets 50%Wewill 50%WewillbuyoroperatemoretrucksWewillbuyoroperatefewertrucks29%WewillbuyoroperateasmanytrucksasbeforeEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesthatwillbuyoroperatemoreconnected,autonomous,andelectrictrucks66%66%45%generationofCONNECTED,AUTONOMOUS,ELECTRICtrucksTruckTruckOEMsarere-imaginingtheirproductroadmaps,howtheyworkwithtier1andtier2suppliers,andhowtheygo-to-marketinpartnershipwithdealerstocapturegrowthbyconvergingconnected,autonomousandelectricfeatures:quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewN460%60%2monthsorlongerTransportationcompaniesexpectanewkindofpartnershipwithOEMstoembracethenextgenerationoftrucks.OnebasedonvalueformoneyandtrustedrelationshipsforthewholelifecycleofthetruckcompaniesthatOWNtheirleetthatLEASEtheirleetthatOUTSOURCEtheirleetTotalTotalcostofownershipTruckperformanceandfeaturesDeliveryleadtimeServicesprovidedbythemanufacturer,suchaspredictivemaintenanceRelationshipwithdealer/salesexecutiveTruck/manufacturerbrand23%20%20%38%38%30%21%27%22%28%25%25%31%14%39%39%45%48%21%18%20%10%21%18%20%10%13%28%19%12%6%Environmentalsustainability12%6%AffordablefinancingandleasingOEMsOEMsthatfocusonnewproductfeaturesonlywillnotwinmarketshare.TransportationcompaniesexpectOEMstobepartnersthatcandelivervalueformoneythroughoutthelife-cycleofthetruck,fromon-timedelivery,tomaintenanceservicesthatextendthelife-cycleandmakeitworthwhiletooperatethenextgenerationoftrucksthatwillbemoreexpensive.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewN5However,transportationcompanieshavenotfullyrealizedthevalueofconnectedsolutions.However,transportationcompanieshavenotfullyrealizedthevalueofconnectedsolutions.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewTheconvergenceofconnectivitywithautonomousandelectricwillmakeadifference.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewInvestmentsinCONNECTEDtrucksolutionsarehappeningNOWtoincreaseoperationalefficiencyofrouting,drivingandmaintenance.Europeantransportationandlogisticscompanies’investmentsinCONNECTEDtruckssolutions(%ofcompaniesusingorplanningtouse)93%91%90%90%87%85%70%70%70%NTransportationcompanieshaveusedtechnologytomanagefuelexpenses,maintenanceanddispatchingformanyyearsandnowadaysOEMshavemadeconnectedtrucksolutionswidelyavailabletoscalethebenefitsofthosesolutions.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewTransportationcompaniesembracingconnectedsolutionsaimtoreducecostofaccidentsandloweringfuelexpenses;reducingthecostofmaintenanceiskeyforlargercompanies. ExpectedbenefitsofCONNECTEDtrucksolutions42%40%42%40%9%39%18%39%40%40%57%29%16%57%29%11%25%31%35%21%31%35%17%39%39%11%20%11%20%19%20%24%15%26%24%y22%14%22%19%20%18%23%18%18%23%31%25%26%20%28%23%24%30%12%23%33%17%10%250to999employees4%6%39%10%10%CEODeutschePostDHLGroup2019interviewOEMsarerespondingbyprioritizingusecasesCEODeutschePostDHLGroup2019interviewOEMsarerespondingbyprioritizingusecaseswhereconnectedsolutionscandelivervalueintermsofoperationalefficiency:quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewEuropeantransportationcompaniesexpectOEMstodelivervalueaddedservicesthatleveragedigitaltohelpoptimizefleetoperationalefficiencyCONNECTED,AUTONOMOUS,ELECTRICthatEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesexpecttruckOEMstoprovide74%69%64%60%60%51%46%42%36%Fleetmanagement32%N33%6%3%makeitmorechallenginghasthepotentialtoprovidereliefforthis33%6%3%makeitmorechallenginghasthepotentialtoprovidereliefforthislongstandingindustrydynamic.TruckOEMsarealigningtheirproductroadmaptobereadyforLevel4autonomyinthemediumterm.Buttheyarealsore-imaginingthewholeproductdesignbasedonfullautonomyandtheconvergenceofconnectivity,autonomyandelectric.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewInvestmentsinAUTONOMOUStruckswillhappenintheFUTURE,butlargercompaniesthatcanaffordtotestthemnowYearwhenEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesexpecttodeploylevel-4AUTONOMOUStrucks53%50%57%18%30%30%20%31%12%esYearwhenEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesexpecttodeploylevel-5AUTONOMOUStrucks65%53%51%43%53%51%43%3%esNThepotentialtoaddresssomelong-standingproblemswithinthetruckingindustryandcreateasubstantialcompetitiveadvantagewilldrivetheadoptionofautonomoustrucktechnology.Thedrivershortageisimpedingmanyorganizations’abilitytosecurethenecessarycapacitytosupportoperations,drivingcostsupandcontinuingatrendthathasbeendevelopingforyearsacrossthetruckingindustry.Indeed,operatinginanincreasinglyresource-constrainedenvironmentaccentuatedbyescalatingfuelcostsrequiressolutionstoensuresufficientcapacityexistsinthetrucktransportationnetwork.Withnearlyfouroutoffiveorganizationsraisingwagestocompetewithoneanotherforscarcetalent,organizationsareinsearchofalternativesolutionstoequitablysupportoperations.AdvancingautonomoustrucktechnologytosafelynavigatenotonlylongstraightstretchesofopenhighwaythatpresentpredictabledrivingconditionsbutalsoacrossregionswheremountainousterrainandinclementweatherCurrentpilotswillbekeytounderstandhowtomaximizeefficiencyandsafetybenefits,whileaddressingsafety,cost,anddowntimeconcernstoscaleadoptionExpectedbenefitsofAUTONOMOUStrucksolutions45%54%43%31%31%43%42%45%54%43%31%31%43%42%17%27%25%34%29%ty30%34%16%28%26%14%19%23%27%22%23%18%18%29%20%Tobecomemoreagiletorespondtonewdemandpatterns13%9%22%ConcernsofAUTONOMOUStrucksolutions22%14%24%25%26%29%27%31%24%33%29%22%34%40%24%30%34%45%37%34%37%quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewN 37%43%EuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesexpecttojoinforceswithOEMs,whendeployingbreakthroughtechnology,likeautonomousdriving.61%55%54%52%43%18%23%55%49%33%EuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesarereadytopayapremiumforthenextgenerationofCONNECTED,AUTONOMOUS,ELECTRICtrucks,butwouldliketohavetheoptiontopayperuseorservicePriceincreasethatEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesarewillingtopayontopofthecurrentpriceforconnectedandautonomoustrucks1%3%27%17%52%NEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniespreferredwaytopayfornextgenerationconnectedtrucksolutions41%Onapay-per-usebasis59%Throughasubscription59%Throughasubscription229%16%14%OEMsneedtorethinkhowtheyre-organizeproductinnovation,operationsandcustomerservicetoshifttoprocesses,skillsandculturethatsupportsolutionselling.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterview34%37%32%34%37%32%27%29%30%35%30%32%29%27%16%10%10%32%32%25%InvestmentsinELECTRICtrucksareacceleratingwithlast-miledeliverycompaniesmovingmorerapidlytobatteryandplug-inelectric,whilelonger-rangeoperatorcomplementingICEwithfuelcelltoo..Europeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesplanstodeploytrucks,bytypeoffuel,inthenext2-3years44%TruckTruckOEMsneedtomakecriticaldecisionsintimesofuncertaintytobereadyfordouble-digitgrowthofEVsinthenext3-5yearsfromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewquoteNTransportationcompaniesembracingelectrictrucksaimtoreducefuelexpenses,maintenancecostsaswellastheriskofaccidentsbyprovidingdriverswithdowntimeduringrechargeExpectedbenefitsofELECTRICtrucksolutionsToreduceexpenditureonfuel42%46%39%Tolowerfleetmaintenancecosts42%29%37%33%31%31%36%23%33%ty28%23%35%Toimprovedriversafety24%23%29%Toenhancedrivingexperience21%23%22%Togainacompetitiveedge/marketdifferentiation15%31%10%Totakeadvantageofgovernmentsubsidies13%17%18%15%14%14%Tobecomemoreagiletorespondtonewdemandpatterns7%6%12%ConcernsofELECTRICtrucksolutions13%9%14%9%20%12%15%11%12%7%11%27%18%14%16%Lesserpayload21%26%16%27%23%29%28%26%33%Safetyconcerns33%40%Highprice16%30%29%39%39%39%39%34%27%InterviewwithNiklasAndersson,ExecutiveVPandHeadofLogisticsDivision,Denmark-basedDFDS(fromS)NExpectedtotalcostofoperationsofelectrictruckscomparedwithICEs(diesel)by203ExpectedtotalcostofoperationsofelectrictruckscomparedwithICEs(diesel)by203024%14%24%22%23%31%54%63%45%OEMscannotturnlatentdemandintoactivedemandalone.GovernmentinterventiontopromoteinfrastructureinvestmentsandfleetreplacementarenecessarytomaketheTCOequaltoorlowercomparedwithICEquotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewAlthough“toimproveenvironmentalsustainability”isnotthetopexpectedbenefitsofconnected,autonomousandelectrictrucks,achangeofmindsetishappeninginthetransportationindustry,asmoreandmoretopexecutivesaremakingitastrategicpriority.EnvironmentalsustainabilitycriteriathatEuropeantransportationandlogisticscompaniesmayconsiderwhenselectingatruckmanufacturer75%60%56%52%36%35%32%31%FactorsthatmakeanindirectimpactonenvironmentalsustainabilityDBSchenker’sCEO2021blogOEMscanacceleratetheshifttowardsenvironmentallysustainabletrucksbyshowingtheimpactonthebottomline,throughincreasedfuelefficiency,compliancewithCO2emissiontargets,andreal-timedashboard.quotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewquotefromtruckOEMin-depthinterviewN24%13%32%324%13%32%30%24%16%32%26%Europeantransportationcompaniesarelookingtoin-personrelationshipswithOEMsanddealerstoacquirethenextg