英国脱欧后怎么办

英国脱欧后怎么办AlexanderBettsIamBritish.Neverbeforehasthephrase.”IamBritish.”elicitedsomuchpity.Icomefromanislandwheremanyofusliketobelievethere'sbeenalotofcontinuityoverthelastthousandyears.Wetendtohavehistoricallyimposedchangeonothersbutdoesmuchlessofitourselves.Soitcameasanimmenseshocktome.WhenIwokeuponthemorningofjune24todiscoverthatmycountryhadvotedtoleavetheEuropeanUnion.MyPrimeMinisterhadresignedandScotlandwasconsideringareferendumthatcouldbringtoanendtheveryexistenceoftheUnitedKingdom.Sothatwasanimmenseshockformeanditwasanimmenseshockformanypeoplebutitwasalsosomethingthat,overthefollowingseveraldayscreatedacompletepoliticalmeltdowninmycountry.Therewerecallsforasecondreferendumalmostasif,followingasportsmatchwecouldasktheoppositionforareplay.EverybodywasblamingeverybodyelsepeopleblamedthePrimeMinisterforcallingthereferenduminthefirstplace.Theyblamedtheleaderoftheoppositionfornotfightingithardenough.Theyoungaccusedtheold.Theeducatedblamedthelesswell-educated.ThatcompletemeltdownwasmadeevenworsebythemosttragicelementofitlevelsofxenophobiaandracistabuseinthestreetsofBritain.AtalevelthatIhaveneverseenbeforeinmylifetime.PeoplearenowtalkingaboutwhethermycountryisbecomingalittleEngland.Or,asoneofmycolleaguesputitwhetherwe'reabouttobecomea1950snostalgiathemeparkfloatingintheAtlanticOcean.Butmyquestionisreally,wehavethedegreeofshockthatwe'veexperiencedsince？Wasitsomethingthattookplaceovernight?Oraretheredeeperstructuralfactorsthathaveledustowherewearetoday?SoIwanttotakeastepbackandasktwoverybasicquestions.First,whatdoesBrexitrepresent,notjustformycountrybutforallofusaroundtheworld?Andsecond,whatcanwedoaboutit?Howshouldweallrespond?Sofirst,whatdoesBrexitrepresent?Hindsightisawonderfulthing.Brexitteachesusmanythingsaboutoursocietyandaboutsocietiesaroundtheworld.Ithighlightsinwaysthatweseemembarrassinglyunwareofhowdividedoursocietiesare.Thevotesplitalonglinesofage,educationclassandgeography.Youngpeopledidn'tturnouttovoteingreatnumbersbutthosethatdidwantedtoremain.OlderpeoplereallywantedtoleavetheEuropean.Geographically,itwasLondonandScotlandthatmoststronglycommitted.TobeingpartoftheEuropeanUnionwhileinotherpartsofthecountrytherewasverystrongambivalence.Thosedivisionsarethingswereallyneedtorecognizeandtakeseriously.Butmoreprofoundly,thevoteteachesussomethingaboutthenatureofpoliticstaday.Contemporarypoliticsisnolongerjustaboutrightandleft.It'snolongerjustabouttaxandspend.It'saboutglobalization.Thefaultofcontemporarypoliticsisbetweenthosethatembraceglobalizationandthosethatfearglobalization.Ifwelookatwhythosewhowantedtoleavewecallthem“leavers”,asopposedto“remainers”.Weseetwofactorsintheopinionpollsthatreallymattered.Thefirstwasimmigration,andthesecondsovereigntyandtheserepresentadesireforpeopletotakebackcontroloftheirownlivesandthefeelingthattheyareunrepresentedbypoliticians.Butthoseideasareonesthatsignifyfearandalienation.TheyrepresentaretreatbacktowardsnationalismandbordersinwaysthatmanyofuswouldrejectwhatIwanttosuggestisthepictureismorecomplicatedthanthat.Thatliberalinternationalistslikemyself,andIfirmlyincludemyselfinthatpictureneedtowriteourselvesbackintothepictureinordertounderstandhowwe'vegottowherewearetodaywhenwelookatthevotingpatternsacrosstheUnitedKingdom.Wecanvisiblyseethedivisions.TheblueareasshowRemainandtheredareasleavewhenIlookedatthiswhatpersonallystruckmewastheverylittletimeinmylife.I'veactuallyspentinmanyoftheredareas.Isuddenlyrealizedthat,lookingatthetop50areasintheUK,thathavethestrongestleavevote.I'vespentacombinedtotaloffourdaysofmylifeinthoseareas.InsomeofthoseplacesIdidn'tevenknowthenamesofthevotingdistricts.Itwasarealshocktomeanditsuggestedthatpeoplelikemewhothinkofourselvesasinclusive,openandtolerant,perhapsdon'tknowourowncountriesandsocietiesnearlyaswellasweliketobelieve.Andthechallengethatcomesfromthatisweneedtofindanewwaytonarrateglobalizationtothosepeople,torecognizethatforthosepeoplewhohavenotnecessarilybeentouniversitywhohaven'tnecessarilygrownupwiththeInternetthatdon'tgetopportunitiestotravel.Theymaybeunpersuadedbythenarrativethatwefindpersuasiveinouroftenliberalbubbles.Itmeansthatweneedtoreachoutmorebroadlyandunderstand.Intheleavevote,aminorityhavepeddledthepoliticsoffearandhatred,creatingliesandmistrustaround,forinstance,theideathatthevoteonEuropecouldreducethenumberofrefugeesandasylum-seekerscomingtoEurope,whenthevoteonleavinghadnothingtodowithimmigrationfromoutsidetheEuropeanUnion.Butforasignificantmajorityoftheleavevoters,theconcernwasdisillusionmentwiththepoliticalestablishment.Thiswasaprotestvoteformanyasensethatnobodyrepresentedthemthattheycouldn'tfindapoliticalpartythatspokeforthem,andsotheyrejectedthatpoliticalestablishment.ThisreplicatesaroundEuropeandmuchoftheliberaldemocraticworld.WeseeitwiththeriseinpopularityofDonaldTrumpintheUnitedStateswiththegrowingnationalismofViktorOrbaninHungary.WiththeincreaseinpopularityofMarineLePeninFrance.ThespecterofBrexitisinallofoursocieties.SothequestionIthinkweneedtoaskismysecondquestion,whichishowshouldwecollectivelyrespond?Forallofuswhocareaboutcreatingliberal,open,tolerantsocieties,weurgentlyneedanewvision,avisionofamoretolerant,inclusiveglobalization.Onethatbringspeoplewithusratherthanleavingthembehind.Thatvisionofglobalizationisonethathastostartbyarecognitionofthepositivebenefitsofglobalization.Theconsensusamongsteconomistsisthatfreetrade,themovementofcapitalthemovementofpeopleacrossbordersbenefiteveryoneonaggregate.Theconsensusamongstinternationalrelationssholarsisthatglobalizationbringsinterdependence,whichbringscooperationandpeace.Butglobalizationalsohasredistributiveeffects.Itcreateswinnersandlosers.Totaketheexampleofmigration.Weknowthatimmigrationisanetpositivefortheeconomyasawholeunderalmostallcircumstances.Butwealsohavetobeveryawarethatthereareredistributiveconsequencesthatimportantly,low-skilledimmigrationcanleadtoareductioninwagesforthemostimpoverishedinoursocietiesandalsoputpressureonhouseprices.Thatdoesn'tdetractfromthefactthatit'spositivebutitmeansmorepeoplehavetoshareinthosebenefitsandrecognizethem.In2002,theformerSecretary-GeneraloftheUnitedNations,KofiAnnan,gaveaspeechatYaleUniversityandthatspeechwasonthetopicofinclusiveglobalization.Thatwasthespeechinwhichhecoinedthatterm.Andhesaid,andIparaphrase.Theglasshouseofglobalizationhastobeopentoallifitistoremainsecure.Bigotryandignorancearetheuglyfaceofexclusionaryandantagonisticglobalization.Thatideaofinclusiveglobalizationwasbrieflyrevivedin2008inaconferenceonprogressivegovernanceinvolvingmanyoftheleadersofEuropeancountries.Butamidausterityandthefinancialcrisisof2008,theconceptdisappearedalmostwithoutatrace.Globalizationhasbeentakentosupportaneoliberalagenda.It'sperceivedtobepartofaneliteagendaratherthansomethingbenefitall.Anditneedstobereclaimedonafarmoreinclusivebasisthanitistoday.Sothequestionis,howcanweachievethatgoal?Howcanwebalanceontheonehandaddressingfearandalienationwhileontheotherhandrefusingvehementlytogiveintoxenophobiaandnationalism?Thatisthequestionforallofus.AndIthink,asasocialscientistthatsocialscienceofferssomeplacestostart.Ourtransformationhastobeaboutbothideasandaboutmaterialchange,andIwanttogiveyoufourideasasastartingpoint.ThefirstrelatestotheideaofcivileducationwhatstandsoutfromBrexitisthegapbetweenpublicperceptionandempiricalreality.It'sbeensuggestedthatwe'vemovedtoapost-factualsociety,whereevidenceandtruthnolongermatter,andlieshaveequalstatustotheclarityofevidence,sohowcanwe一Howcanwerebuildrespectfortruthandevidenceintoourliberaldemocracies?Ithastobeginwitheducation,butithastostartwiththerecognitionthatarehugegaps.In2014,thepollsterIPSOSMORIpublishedasurveyonattitudestoimmigrationanditshowedthatasnumbersofimmigrantsincrease,sopublicconcernwithimmigrationalsoincreases,althoughitobviouslydidn'tunpackcausalitybecausethiscouldequallybetodonotsomuchwithnumbersbutthepoliticalandmedianarrativearoundit.Butthesamesurveyalsorevealedhugepublicmisinformationandmisunderstandingaboutthenatureofimmigration.Forexample,intheseattitudesintheUnitedKingdom,thepublicbelievedthatlevelsofasylumwereagreaterproportionofimmigrationthantheywere,buttheyalsobelievedthelevelsofeducationalmigration,werefarlowerasaproportionofoverallmigration,thantheyactuallyare.Sowehavetoaddressthismisinformationthegapbetweenperceptionandrealityonkeyaspectsofglobalization.Andthatcan'tjustbesomethingthat'slefttoourschools,althoughthat'simportanttobeginatanearlyage.Ithastobeaboutlifelongcivicparticipationandpublicengagementthatweallencourageassocieties.ThesecondthingthatIthinkisanopportunityistheideatoencouragemoreinteractionacrossdiversecommunities.Oneofthethingsthatstandsoutformeverystrikingly,lookingatimmigrationattitudesintheUnitedKingdom,isthatironically,theregionsofmycountrythatarethemosttolerantofimmigrantshavethehighestnumbersofimmigrants.Soforinstance,Londonandthesoutheasthavethehighestnumbersofimmigrants,andtheyarealsobyfarthemosttolerantareas.It'sthoseareasofthecountrythathavethelowestlevelsofimmigrationthatactuallyarethemostexclusionaryandintoleranttowardsmigrants.Soweneedtoencourageexchangeprograms.Weneedtoensurethatoldergenerationswhoneedtoensurethatoldergenerationswhomaybecan'ttravelgetaccesstotheInternet.Weneedtoencourage,evenonalocalandnationallevelmoremovement,moreparticipation,moreinteractionwithpeoplewhowedon'tknowandwhoseviewswemightnotnecessarilyagreewith.ThethirdthingthatIthinkiscrucialthough,andthisisreallyfundamental,iswehavetoensurethateverybodysharesinthebenefitsofglobalization.ThisillustrationfromtheFinancialTimesPost-Brexitisreallystriking.ItshowstragicallythatthosepeoplewhovotedtoleavetheEuropeanUnionwerethosewhoactuallybenefitedthemostmateriallyfromtradewiththeEuropeanUnion.Buttheproblemisthatthosepeopleinthoseareasdidn'tperceivethemselvestobebeneficiaries.Theydidn'tbelievethattheywereactuallygettingaccesstomaterialbenefitsofincreasedtradeandincreasedmobilityaroundtheworld.Iworkonquestionspredominantlytodowithrefugees,andoneoftheideasIspentalotofmytimepreaching,mainlytodevelopingcountriesaroundtheworldisthatinordertoencourageintegrationofrefugees.Wecan'tjustbenefittherefugeepopulations.Wealsohavetoaddresstheconcernsofthehostcommunitiesinlocalareas.Butinlookingatthatoneofthepolicyprescriptionsisthatwehavetoprovidedisproportionatelybettereducationfacilities,healthfacilities,accesstosocialservicesinthoseregionsofhighimmigrationtoaddresstheconcernsofthoselocalpopulations.Butwhileweencouragethataroundthedevelopingworld,wedon'ttakethoselessonshomeandincorporatetheminourownsocieties.Furthermore,ifwe'regoingtoreallytakeseriouslytheneedtoensurepeopleshareintheeconomicbenefits,ourbusinessesandcorporationsneedamodelofglobalizationsthatrecognizesthatthey,too,havetotakepeoplewiththem.ThefourthandfinalideaIwanttoputforwardisanideathatweneedmoreresponsiblepolitics.There'sverylittlesocialscienceevidencethatcomparesattitudesonglobaliza