化工-行业周报：9月制造业PMI重回景气万华等上调MDI挂牌价TDI、金属硅、黄磷价格持续上涨

证券研究报告工7.483.76工昆股份3.92技0.701.13金禾实业3.322.575.932.542.902.99斯特3.843.15相关报告《【兴证化工】基础化工行业周NMP产业链、氨基酸价格普涨，双酚A、吡唑醚菌酯、邻/对硝基氯化苯、橡胶助剂价格走高(20220919-20220925)》hangzhiyangxyzqcomcnS03勋iumenglanxyzqcomcnSTDI、金属硅、黄磷价格持续上涨投资要点下，化工品作为地产链重要中上游环节，相关产业链需求有望随地产PMI张区间。9制造业PMI为50.1%(月环比+0.7pcts)，指数水平踏上荣枯线以及制造业进入传统旺季，新订单指数连续两月回升。(2)新出口订单+0.3pcts)，均处于收缩区间。(3)主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格活跃。购进价格与出厂价格之间的差值为-4.2%，原材料价格涨幅较大，企业的成本压力有所增加。(4)大型企业PMI为51.1%(月环比+0.6pcts)，处于扩张区间；中、小型企业PMI分别为49.7%和48.3%(月环比分别+0.8pcts和+0.7pcts)，中小型企业的景气水平均有。挂牌价19800元/吨(环比+2300元/吨)；纯MDI挂牌价23000元/吨(环比+2000元/吨)。根据百川与隆众资讯，万华化学9月份聚合MDI结算价15600元/吨(桶装承兑，环比+200元/吨)；上海亨斯迈2022年10月聚合MDI对分销市场挂牌价格为21000元/吨(环比吨(环比+3000元/吨)。市场价方面，本周聚合MDI(华东)和纯MDI(华东)价格分别为17200元/吨(环比+1.2%)和20900元/吨(环风险提示：化工产品需求不达预期的风险，国际油价大幅下跌的风险，环请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-2-中国化工品价格指数(CCPI)：本周CCPI较上周持平，较上月同期产品：美国N.Y.Hub现货，+43%；PTMEG(1800)，双碳”目标背景下，身处规范化重点园区、持续稳定的资本开支等优势的领先企业将持续受益，强者恒强格局持续强化。特别是站在当前时点，化企龙头在基本面缓慢恢复的背景下，估值已跌至较低水平，以龙头公司周期底部业绩测算来看，该估值仍具有工产业格局重塑关键力量，万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等。化产业链、规模化与技术领先实现的成本优势、持续稳定的资本开支等工产业格局重塑的关键力量(万华化学、华鲁恒升、扬农化工等)。一速产品价格与价差的修复。建议关注桐昆股份、新凤鸣。农作物的种植面积将提升，农化产品将受益海外需求增长。我们认为，当前海外虽受到通胀影响，但是农化产品具备资源+刚需特性，2022年全球农化景气周期有望持续。从农化产业链看，磷肥原材料磷矿石价格尚处高位，磷矿-磷肥一体化企业受益，建议关注磷矿资源优势企业云天化、川恒股份、川发龙蟒、兴发集团。农药方面，安环收紧下农药行业集中度逐渐提高，头部企业新一轮产能投放在即，我们建议关注农药行业内具备领先工程化技术、原研药研发及推广实力的原药企：扬农化工、利尔化学、江山股份；制剂：润丰股份；农药中间体：联化科技。着全球经济刺激退潮，原料需求边际回落，其价格有望持续降低。海运端，2022年以来，海运供需错配缓解，全球海运费出现明显回落，未盈利水平有望迎来持续改善，国内头部企业产能扩张迅速，抢占全球市场请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-3-份额，有望迎来行业修复与自身成长的共振，投资布局价值凸显。重点、19600元/吨，为10600元/吨，环比-0.47%。海运端，中国-美东/中国-美西/中国-欧洲段执行，沸石、蜂窝陶瓷等相关产品有望持续放量。关注动力电池电解液龙头天赐材料、新宙邦，正极材料龙头当升科技，光伏胶膜全球龙头化工新材料原创技术平台昊华科技，国内领先的半导体光刻胶龙头彤程新材，贯通芯片制造、封装的电子材料平台型公司雅克科技，催化材料领先企业国瓷材料、万润股份，风电叶片固化剂细分领域龙头阿科力、濮阳惠成。维检修；甘肃银光、巨力化工烟台3+5万吨装置延续停车；其他主流装置平稳运行。海外方面，德国巴斯夫(30万吨)装置停车时短期内无法重启(11月底之前)，匈牙利宝思德、沙特陶氏装置均出⚫EVA价格上涨。供给方面，扬子巴斯夫装置恢复生产，其他企业装置请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-4-醇⚫下游采购积极，电石价格上涨。根据百川资讯，供给方面，西北地区电石供应量下降，主产地宁夏、内蒙古地区因疫情管控运输受限。需求涨2.0%至3835元/吨。需本减少。企业考虑到限电等因素储备金属硅库存，行业内现货减少。需求次限电中多数黄磷企业于9月25号开始降负荷生产。根据百川盈孚测投资策略⚫海外政策收紧致需求边际走弱，国内新产能投产在即，周期景气或回/货币政策通道，美国耐用品消费已出现拐点；短期内国内政策托底经请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-5-济“稳增长”，在“房住不炒”大背景下，地产相关化工品修复或相对加息后海外需求的边际下滑。综合来看，化工品需求压力较大，化纤等非耐用品相关化工品需求或好于耐用品相关化工品；供给方面，历经近我们认为2022年下半年化工品普遍性的景气或难再现，投资主线应聚焦于盈利确定性较高的品种。综上，把握2022年下半年化工行业投资内在市场化定价机制，叠加成品油组分价值链支撑，高油价并不影响炼油利润；当前行业处底部区间，后续存修复预期。长丝方面，行业集中度提升带动龙头单吨盈利中枢上移，前期需求遭受不可抗力致行业短期涤纶长丝；⚫成本回落带来盈利修复确定性，产业趋势酝酿行业发展机遇：新材料C能源产业配套完备，新材料不断革新助力下游制造降本增效；“双碳”利修复。长远看，国内龙头凭高性价比优势不断抢占全球市场份额，未⚫通胀背景下，需求刚需与供给减少带来行业景气可持续的确定性：农科技、赛轮轮胎、国瓷材料、华峰化学、中国巨石、联化科技、天赐材卫星化学。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-6-的风险。请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-7- 录 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-8- 3、涤纶库存(天) -33-4、锦纶库存(天) -34-5、粘胶库存(天) -34- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-9- 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-10- 行业周报请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明表1、重点跟踪化工产品价格与价差期涨幅指数---2022/10/070.0%%%人民币对美元汇率(中间价)2022/10/07099809980.0%9200982.7%742人民币对欧元汇率(中间价)---2022/10/078928920.0%4590.6%20022.9%2022/10/070.5%%3.5%74SP--2022/10/079.665.623.234067.364677.032%现货价2022/10/07%%---2022/10/070792%0594%83.7%2022/10/070.0%9%--2022/10/079649870.5%%.0%445.0%2022/10/07644974.7%902022/10/079284.5%2022/10/077225442022/10/0767.8%.0%712022/10/07265766%5504%2022/10/079.6%372022/10/07492492022/10/075434.7%20.3%原油2022/10/078814.2%.9%51.7%口2022/10/07327.8%.9%912022/10/070.3%0.0%815.2%2022/10/0729203305590.3%30774%271910.5%178512.7%2022/10/0737.7%128.7%5.853%2022/10/077555.8%9930.6%36997.8%2022/10/07.82368.7%364.6%9660.9%2022/10/072%8498.6%62022/10/077929.7%4.779.3%82022/10/0728122022/10/070.0%0.0%.0%2022/10/070.0%0.0%%52022/10/07458198.4%2022/10/07120.2%26.6%95.3%炼油2022/10/073.3%)2022/10/07%2.3%43.0%2022/10/070.0%2.5%%3.3%2022/10/070.0%2.7%6.3%1.0%2022/10/070.0%2.9%9.6%26.8%2022/10/0771710.0%7762352022/10/074.9%2.3%6.3%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-12-丙烷(华东冷冻丙烷(华东冷冻CFR)丁烷(华东冷冻CFR)山东)油(150SN,东北)58#半炼石蜡(华南)58#半炼石蜡(华南)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07.6%04.7%000.0%2.5%-4.8%2022/10/070.0%.0%2022/10/070.0%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07%3.3%50-3.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.4%2022/10/070.0%0.0%02022/10/07000.6%00.0%0-3.8%25.5%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/078408400.6%940092500.0%.0%47.6%2022/10/070.0%40033.8%2022/10/0742.25-30.8%69.7337.9%67.9237.5%09.062022/10/070752.0%59.3%57.7%40.6%2022/10/0731.9%38.6%20.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0764.02498.4806.76.2527.7%.8135.9%.86.2%60.6%2%275.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0754.3133.7270.4%32.3%30.6%5043.0%36.6%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0759513.685204.4635.37635.0%32.0%41.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0744.8321.600033.7%10.47612%78.109.442%79.9%31.9%37.5%2.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07907.468.0%7.129.7%3.84.0%9203.9%43.0%9.8%%2022/10/07550.0%11644.90%2022/10/0730600.8%602.5%90%气2022/10/0777.0%3278.0%便士/Therm2022/10/072.7%74%2.6%2022/10/070646.8%52.3%33%2022/10/074.1743.4%30.3%854%2022/10/070.5%3.368549.5%7.19-27.8%2022/10/070.580.590.0%0.351.22.0%3.862022/10/0731.3%2022/10/0750047764274.0%2022/10/0700.0%04.3%041.2%英尺2022/10/076774.3%74945-2.8%煤Q500,晋城)煤(Q5500,山西优混)Q5500,环渤海指数)原)2022/10/070.0%0.0%.0%7.8%2022/10/070.0%2.5%.6%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.3%2022/10/0700000.0%000.0%000.0%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-13-焦油(华东)华东))气化焦(山西)煤价差2022/10/07000.0%2.5%9043.2%2022/10/07000.0%009504%2022/10/0790900.0%63.7%900.0%902022/10/074763%504.0%63%35%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0750504.9%90504.9%700.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%草酸(山东)2022/10/074292304.7%3032.9%335.2%2022/10/079509500.0%9500.0%9500.0%尿素(山东)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/075308300.7%00070080.6%5104.2%0.0%2.0%聚氰胺(四川)(华东)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070500500.0%559.9%03002%0.0%4.2%28.8%铵(河南)钠(华东)2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%0.0%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%02.9%0%)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07503023.3%2023.7%6026.5%0.0%0.0%3.6%华鲁)甲胺(华鲁)2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%500-42.8%2022/10/075.9%5.9%5.9%50022.0%MF)2022/10/077.9%09.9%21.9%50.3%2022/10/070000041.3%)华东)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/073.6%3.6%003.3%02%0.0%.0%38.5%PVA,四川维尼纶)华东)2022/10/070.0%0.0%6002022/10/07000.0%05华东)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.7%28.6%0.0%0.0%4.8%.8%河南)2022/10/072502500.0%2500.0%2500.0%2022/10/071001000.0%1000.0%1000.0%02022/10/07---4%2022/10/07%94煤制草酸价差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07224.8%6%54.7%92000.0%0.8%2022/10/076.5%0.9%5933.5%尿素-液氨价差2022/10/07.7%0.6%636.5%51.0%聚氰胺-尿素价差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%-20.8%铵-液氨价差.7%.7%%2022/10/0743.9%%21.6%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-14-醇-液氨价差-甲醇-液氨价差DMF液氨价差价差价差PVA甲醇价差2022/10/0770.9%264.7%-2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07577.6%87.9%093.6%-2.8%4.6%2022/10/0767.7%3563.0%2022/10/0788330.3%22438.7%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07.7%000.3%5873863.0%-23.8%31.9%36.3%2022/10/07243%15124%02%2022/10/073832.6%553.6%0884%2022/10/07080%2022/10/07377.3%8-319.8%29.2%-2445.8%2022/10/0742274634-8.8%4745512235602022/10/070.0%5.3%5.3%5.3%(华东)2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%00.7%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%00.0%2022/10/0703.3%0.0%2022/10/0746924.3%37.6%62022/10/079151%900.0%54-乙烯价差2022/10/070.0%.8%00(华东)SAP,华南)华东)烷(华东)NPG-丙烯价差2022/10/070.0%%08.5%2022/10/070.0%0.6%2022/10/07000.0%02.7%04.3%0%2022/10/070.0%4.3%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%004.7%025.6%0.0%2.9%2.0%40.0%2022/10/07000.0%003.5%4%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%025.9%0.0%3.8%26.0%2022/10/07000.0%002.9%028.6%2022/10/07000.0%0%.2%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00-42.8%0.0%0.5%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%39.9%2022/10/070.0%%%27.3%2022/10/070.0%27.8%79.6%2022/10/07274%728.6%2022/10/07660.0%46.9%4326.4206请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-15-碳酸二甲酯/丙二醇联产价差2022/10/077.5%57.3%2022/10/070.0%2221.6%82%2022/10/074646.954774.6.7%4545.9.2%%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07330.0%944.0%2-SAP烯酸价差0.0%4.6%.7%2022/10/07000.0%0857033.9%2022/10/075425.0%00.5NPG价差2022/10/07220.0%80.8%50.9%碳四原料气(齐鲁石化)油(华东)酐(华东)MTBE胜华)醇醇(98%,湖北宜化)MAA)MMA)油-碳四原料气价差酐-碳四原料气价差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070000000004.250000000005.00.60.0%0.0%4.6%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%%0.0%0.0%0.0%%0.0%.7%0000000073.5076.4%6.3%-3.8%0.6%%2.8%0.0%0.0%5.6%0.0%.7%%4%%2%6.5%000000000047.006%.3%5.9%0.0%0.0%0.0%3.3%3.5%%%40.0%0.5%.7%10000002047.000.825.8%24.0%4%28.3%56.5%23.7%%51.7%45.0%4%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%00%80031.3%0.0%8.5%双环戊二烯(山东)2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%400芳怪华东)(华东)东)2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07050005000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0000-0.8%0.0%0.0%4.9%2.6%00050.6%0.0%4.6%002424.6%4.8%23.6%7.7%.7%%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-16-2022/10/070.0%0.3%21.7%2022/10/07052.5%004%华东)2022/10/074.8%2.7%%535.5%东)2022/10/070.0%002022/10/0747081918-23.8%242022/10/070.0%58.8%.967.5%烯-纯苯-乙烯价差2022/10/070.0%24.9%34.8%2022/10/0%5.25.7%0.25%84%二甲苯价差2022/10/07356.3%.5%工业萘价差2022/10/0760600.0%800.9%8.4%XADTYDDD2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%2.7%2.7%544.7%%4.7%7.6%21.3%2022/10/07000%523.0%2022/10/0700.6%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0700003.5%0050%00.2%%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%02022/10/07550.0%0%00.6%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070000.8%00.8%02.3%002.8%0.0%%%2022/10/07002.7%00.0%00.7%0.9%2022/10/0700000.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.2%00.5%00.5%0.0%0.0%0.3%夫)D元/吨DOPTMEG2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07015001500.0%03500.0%02500.0%0.6%0.0%4.6%%29.7%2022/10/070.0%%028.9%2022/10/070.0%6.3%6.3%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0730003000%30003000%0850.3%0.0%0.0%0.0%.3%2022/10/070.0%7.5%2022/10/070.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070000000000000.0%0008000.0%0002000.0%50000040.0%0.0%0.8%%31.6%2022/10/070.0%0.0%%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%-25.8%2022/10/070.0%0.0%7.0%8002%2022/10/070000000.0%0000.0%0000.0%25002022/10/0750025.0%25.0%25.0%750052.6%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-17-2022/10/070000.3%00.3%00002%PX石脑油价差2022/10/0723%90.7%8325.6%2022/10/0726.8%19PTAPX价差2022/10/072%4%50.0%2022/10/072%-55.8%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07.0%41.7%-8.8%8%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/079020.0%%8PTA价差28.3%30.9%2022/10/07%9.5%2022/10/07907395%586.5%852022/10/07.0%3.6%粘胶短纤-进口溶解浆-烧碱价差2022/10/0748.7%66.8%8%8264%粘胶长丝-棉短绒-烧碱价差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/078358010.5%60060.9%99-3.8%32.3%76.0%75.6%2022/10/07970.5%6.7%25.9%442.7%2022/10/0784840.0%312.6%1.6%2022/10/072582580.0%058%8933.6%2022/10/07880.0%8-24.8%纶短纤-丙烯腈价差2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/071140.0%83.7%20360%6.3%59.8%63.7%2022/10/070.0%272.9%2022/10/075--48054.6%2022/10/074%2022/10/070.0%-0.8%26.535.0%天2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%39.3%320.8%0.0%0.0%93.8%天天天2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%5.6%0.0%9%0.0%%0.0%4%天天2022/10/07880.0%20.0%20.0%900.0%2022/10/07770.0%9切片库存长丝库存天天2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0%8.8.7%9.31.620.3%0.0%.7%%4%粘胶短纤库存天天天2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/0782820.0%822.8%75-8.8%569.7%粘胶长丝库存0.0%0.0%5.9%天天2022/10/07990.0%90.0%728.6%纶库存天2022/10/07550.0%50.0%50.0%6请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-18-天天2022/10/070.0%-2.8%7.9%3.11.5%工率%2022/10/070.0%0.0%%.7%氯碱)2%离子膜,华北)PVC长三角)PVC长三角)氯-原盐价差法价差2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%52-24.8%2022/10/07512.0%04.2%45932022/10/077.5%22.7%40.0%2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%70.0%2022/10/07002.3%5%524.6%2022/10/0755502.6%23.9%2022/10/070.0%0.0%22.7%2022/10/0750500.0%0000006.2%2022/10/0750500.0%00503.5%002022/10/0790900.0%202.9%84.0%749.5%2022/10/077.9%21.7%2022/10/0771217%032.5%57.0%683-40.8%2022/10/0740.5%52.0%-64.8%2022/10/070.0%.7%%2022/10/070.0%6.3%22.5%4%2022/10/0706060.0%743.3%938.5%95%2022/10/070.0%54%421.7%4%2022/10/070.0%0.3%尿素(山东)尿素(大颗粒,美国海湾)2022/10/0730300.0%70802.0%102022/10/070.0%%.7%-0.8%磷酸二铵(64%,长三角)磷酸二铵(64%,长三角)碳铵(山西)硫酸硫酸铵(山东临沂)硫磺(镇江港)硫磺(镇江港)磷磷酸一铵(55%粉,江苏)硫酸硫酸(98%,长三角)硫酸钾(50%,山东)硫酸钾(50%,山东)L尿素-烟煤价差尿素尿素-无烟煤价差2022/10/070.0%0.0%2022/10/070.0%0.0%9.3%0.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%7.3%800.0%4.0%47.6%2022/10/07000.0%252.6%00%30.4%2022/10/07.7%%.0%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%02.7%0.0%%5.3%-6.8%2022/10/07000.0%880-23.8%880-23.8%0.6%2022/10/070.0%0.5%0.5%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/071501500.0%2000.0%5000.0%04%0.0%-7.8%7.8%2022/10/07000.0%00.0%00.0%026.3%2022/10/070.0%-6.8%2022/10/072022/10/072022/10/070.0%6.3%68-26.8%20.3%50.6%205.6%请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和重要声明-19-石-液氨-硫磺价差2022/10/079.5%-6-27.8%987.6%矿石-液氨-硫磺价差2022/10/07392.6%02.9%-36.8%58.6%2022/10/070.0%24.7%21.7%磷矿石(30%,贵州)2022/10/070.0%0.0%0.0%.4%2022/10/07770.0%70.0%49.7%贵州)2022/10/070000007.5%00.9%00.9%磷酸(华东)2022/10/072022/10/070.0%.4%0 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