空气污染的国际溢出效应：来自死亡和健康数据的证据 International Spillover Effects of Air Pollution：Evidence from Mortality and Health Data

NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIESNTERNATIONALSPILLOVEREFFECTSOFAIRPOLLUTIONEVIDENCEFROMMORTALITYANDHEALTHDATAeooichiroItoKotamarthiWorkingPaper30830http//papers/w30830NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCHCambridgeMA8January3WewouldliketothankKeisukeItoandDavidXuforexcellentresearchassistance,andSeverinBorenstein,SusannaBerkouwer,JudsonBoomhower,MaureenCropper,OlivierDeschênes,DaveDonaldsonMichaelGreenstoneRemaHannaDanaeHernndezCortsKelseyJack,RyanKellogg,ShanjunLi,KyleMeng,JoeShapiro,ShaodaWang,andseminarparticipantsatUCBerkeleyEnergyCamp,theGriffinConferencesonSocioeconomicEffectsofAirPollution,andtheCoaseProjectConferencefortheirhelpfulcomments.WegratefullyacknowledgefinancialsupportfromtheGlobalEnergyChallengebyArgonneNationalLaboratoryandtheEnergyPolicyInstituteattheUniversityofChicagoandtheGriffinAppliedEconomicsIncubatorontheGlobalEnergyChallenge.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.©2023bySeonminWillHeo,KoichiroIto,andRaoKotamarthi.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoexceedtwoparagraphs,maybequotedwithoutexplicitpermissionprovidedthatfullcredit,including©notice,isgiventothesource.1.本附加与原报告无关;互联网公开数据；3.本资料在“行业报告资源群”和“知识星球4.本资料仅限社群内部学习，如需它用请联系1.进群即领福利《报告与资源合编》，内有近百行业、上万份行2.每日分享学习最新6+份精选行研资料；3.群友交流，群主免费提供相关领域行研资料。效业研究、运营管理、价值传播等计划、盖科技、金融、教育、互联InternationalSpilloverEffectsofAirPollution:EvidencefromMortalityandHealthDatanWillHeoKoichiroItoandRaoKotamarthiNBERWorkingPaperNo.30830January3JELNoQ53STRACTWestudytheinternationalspillovereffectsofairpollutionbydevelopingaframeworkthatintegratesrecentadvancesinatmosphericscienceintoeconometricestimationwithmicrodataonmortalityandhealth.Combiningtransboundaryparticletrajectorydatawiththeuniverseofindividual-levelmortalityandemergencyroomvisitdatainSouthKorea,wefindthattransboundaryairpollutionfromChinasignificantlyincreasesmortalityandmorbidityinSouthKorea.Usingtheseestimates,weshowthatarecentChineseenvironmentalpolicy“waronpollution”generatedasubstantialinternationalspilloverbenefit.Finally,weexamineChina’sstrategicpollutionreductionsandprovidetheirimplicationsforthepotentialCoasianbargaining.eoUniversityofCaliforniaSantaBarbaraNorthHallBarbaraCAuoichiroItoHarrisSchoolofPublicPolicyUniversityofChicagoChicago,IL60637andNBERito@KotamarthiArgonneNationalLaboratoryvrkotamarthianlgov11IntroductionldIntheUnitedStates,airqualityhasimprovedsubstantiallyinthelastfewdecadeslargelythankstoaluInthispaper,westudytheinternationalspillovereffectsofairpollutionandexaminetheextenttoawithhedpropertiesbythespreadofrebyitself2romChinaplaysasignicantroleinthelevelofPMinSouthKoreaInEastAsiafallandwinterareknowntoyingthesboundaryagmincreaseinPMinSouthKoreancitiesonaverageTheemortalitytimatesindicatethatagmincreaseineaseinhourlymortalityinSouthionpeoplefortheoverallpopulationanincreaseinannualmortalitybypermillionpeople).Thiseffectimpliesa0.6%increaseinmortalitywithrespecttoa1µg/m3increaseinys3Inadditiontotheimpactonmortality,airpollutioncouldalsoincreasemorbidity(Barwick,Li,RaosWencreasemortalityandmorbidityinSouthKorea.Akeypolicyimplicationofthesefindingsisthatacountry’stalregulationsintheeconomicsliteratureTohighlightthispointweconsideranimplicationofaprominentnin4fduringthewaronaRelatedliteratureandourcontributions—Ourstudybuildsonandcontributestofourstrandsoftheuchhallengeby5inaHeuteleifestimatethemortalityeffectofPMfortheelderlyintheUnitedStatesdyriesers62DataandDescriptiveEvidence2.1PM2.5inSouthKoreaandChinantiouss7FigureA).inaandtheseasonalwesterliescanbeahan2.2TransboundaryAirPollutionfromChinatoSouthKoreairpollution.daryer8theeawertsionsintotalhourlytrajectoriesxdaysxyearsxcitiesinSouthKoreaThisisacomputationally-intensivedatacollection,butweuseparallelcomputingtoobtainmillionsofdry7Forthemeteorologicaldata,weusetheNCEP/NCARReanalysisdata.WeincludeitsdescriptioninAppendixA.9achgridollutionalstoPMinBeijinginhourtaandhowitaffectstheimatethisrolsis2.3MortalityinSouthKoreaWecollectSouthKoreanmortalitymicrodatafromtheMicroDataIntegratedService(MDIS),whichis2.4EmergencyHospitalAdmissionsinSouthKoreadistrictanddaily2.5OtherDatadthattheresultsarerobusttoheightsovermetersandtheKleibergen-PaaprkWaldF-statisticishighestwith500meters.rajectoriesinChinatheheightintheoriginlocationofthebackwardtrajectoryriginlocationproducesthehighestKleibergenPaaprkWaldFstatisticinourrststage2.6SummaryStatistics3EmpiricalAnalysisandResultsairpollutiononmortalityinSouthKorea.Finally,insection3.3,weruntheinstrumentalvariable(IV)3.1First-stageRegressionPMct=αTransboundaryPMct+XctV+uct,whereXctisavectorofcontrolvariablesforcitycandhourtanductistheerrorterm.WeincludeaxedsumptionisthattheerrortermisuncorrelatedwiththetransboundaryairpollutiongiventhecontrolalizePMctbycitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayof3.2Reduced-formEstimationJMortalityct=βjTransboundaryPMc,t−j+Xctγ+uct,(2)j=0concurrent(j=0)andlagged(j>0)transboundaryairpollutiontoestimateβjforj=1,...,J.TheseleAcludetheaverageofhourlyludeaiumlongifferentfrominternationalairpollutionspillovereffects,Deryugina,Heutel,Miller,MolitorandReif(2019)findthatehby3.3InstrumentalVariablesEstimationJMortalityct=φjPMc,t−j+XctV+uct,(3)j=0elatasy3.4MortalityImpactsbyAgeGrouped3.5ImpactsonEmergencyRoomVisitsInadditiontoitsimpactonmortality,airpollutioncouldincreasemorbidity(Barwicketal.,2018).InomeleWefindthattransboundaryPM2.5resultsinincreasesinERvisitsforasthmaandrhinitis.Wedo4PolicyImplications4.1InternationalSpilloverBenefitsofEnvironmentalRegulationominentenvironmentalpolicyrecentlyimelsoneduthnn4.2StrategicReductionsinAirPollutionandImplicationsforCoasianBargainingcnetiontoUSDinonbyderetheyreducedairpollutionforthe“waronpollution.”Asaresult,theinternationalspilloverbenefitwennsmethatwasrecommendedbytheWorldHealthOrganizationinitsglobalairqualityguidelinesin2019(10µg/m3fortheannual5ConclusionctsofaireReferencesRaoandNahimZahurThemorbiditycostofairpollutionressionintheUnitedStates.”AmericanEconomicJournal:AppliedEconomics,15(1):442–73.Bedi,ArjunS,MarcosYNakaguma,BrandonJRestrepo,andMatthiasRieger.2021.“Particlepol-lutionandcognition:EvidencefromsensitivecognitivetestsinBrazil.”JournaloftheAssociationofEnvironmentalandResourceEconomists,8(3):443–474.Bhardwaj,Piyush,SeoJKi,YounHKim,JungHWoo,ChangKSong,SoonYPark,andChulHBorgschulte,Mark,DavidMolitor,andEricZou.2022.“Airpollutionandthelabormarket:EvidencehBorgschulte,M,DMolitor,andEYZou.Forthcoming.“Airpollutionandthelabormarket:Evidencefromwildfiresmoke.”ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics.Chang,TomY,JoshuaGraffZivin,TalGross,andMatthewNeidell.2019.“TheeffectofpollutiononnterworkersinChinaAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedicsChay,KennethY,andMichaelGreenstone.2003.“Theimpactofairpollutiononinfantmortality:ev-sChen,Yuyu,AvrahamEbenstein,MichaelGreenstone,andHongbinLi.2013.“Evidenceontheimpactabledeclineinthepollution-mortalityrelationshipinHongKong.”JournalofenvironmentaleconomicsndmanagementaseRHTheProblemofSocialCostTheJournalofLawEconomicsDeryugina,Tatyana,GarthHeutel,NolanHMiller,DavidMolitor,andJulianReif.2019.“Themor-wDeschenes,Olivier,andEnricoMoretti.2009.“Extremeweatherevents,mortality,andmigration.”TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,91(4):659–681.runeconomicconsequencesofhighnpollutionAmericanEconomicJournalAppliedEconomics,8(4):36–65.Eguiluz-Gracia,Ibon,AlexanderGMathioudakis,SabineBartel,SusanneJHVijverberg,ElaineFuertes,PasqualeComberiati,YutongSamuelCai,PeterValentinTomazic,ZuzanaDiamant,Jør-hEdwardARubinandKatieWrightAirPollutionCoBenetsandRegulatoryRebound.”PresentationatUCBerkeleyEnergyCamp.ingField.”JournalofEconomicLiterature,53(1):5–42.GreenstoneMichaelandRemaHanna014.“Environmentalregulations,airandwaterpollution,andinfantmortalityinIndiaAmericanEconomicReview,104(10):3038–72.GreenstoneMichaelGuojunHeShanjunLiandEricYongchenZou2021.“China’swaronpollution:Greenstone,Michael,JanhaviNilekani,RohiniPande,NicholasRyan,AnantSudarshan,andAnishtterpollution.”EconomicandPoliticalWeekly,40–46.aturalexicoCityJournalofPublicEconomicsHan,Xiao,JuzhenCai,MeigenZhang,andXiaofeiWang.2021.“NumericalsimulationofinterannualAtmosphericEnvironment,256:118440.ingZhangWateringdownenvironmentalregulationinChinaTheQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,135(4):2135–2185.Hernandez-Cortes,Danae,andKyleCMeng.2023.“DoenvironmentalmarketscauseenvironmentalHsiang,Solomon,JaecheolLee,andAndrewWilson.2022.“SimultaneousEstimationofDamagefromoundaryandDomesticAirPollutionPresentationattheCoaseProjectConferenceIto,Koichiro,andShuangZhang.2020.“WillingnesstoPayforCleanAir:EvidencefromAirPurifierissue.”JournalofEnvironmentalEconomicsandManagement,86(C):1–7.Jayachandran,Seema.2009.“Airqualityandearly-lifemortalityevidencefromIndonesia’swildfires.”JournalofHumanresources,44(4):916–954.Jia,Ruixue,andHyejinKu.2019.“IsChina’spollutiontheculpritforthechokingofSouthKorea?Kim,Ye-Shin,Yong-JinLee,Hoa-SungPark,andDong-ChunShin.2003.“Risk-BasedDamageCostEstimationonMortalityDuetoEnvironmentalProblems.”JournalofPreventiveMedicineandPublicKim,Yong-Ik,andSun-MinKim.2021.2020NationalHealthInsuranceStatisticalYearbook.HealthceKuiper,IngridNordeide,CecilieSvanes,IanaMarkevych,SimoneAccordini,RandiJBertelsen,LennartBråbäck,JesperHeileChristensen,BertilForsberg,ThomasHalvorsen,JoachimHein-nessinrelationtoasthmarhinitisandlLee,Hyung-Min,RokjinJPark,DavenKHenze,SeungunLee,ChangsubShim,Hye-JungShin,KwangJooMoonandJungHunWooPM.5sourceattributionforSeoulinMayfrom2009Lee,Seungmin,Chang-HoiHo,YunGonLee,Hyoung-JinChoi,andChang-KeunSong.2013.“Influ-Lee,YongJin,YoungWookLim,JiYeonYang,ChangSooKim,YoungChulShin,andDongChunKoreaJournalofEnvironmentalManagement,92(3):603–609.Lipscomb,Molly,andAhmedMushfiqMobarak.2016.“Decentralizationandpollutionspillovers:evi-MicroDataIntegratedService.1997–2019.“CausesofDeathStatistics(PublicUse).”/10.23333/P.101054.001.(AccessedMarch23,2022).Murphy,KevinM,andRobertHTopel.2006.“Thevalueofhealthandlongevity.”Journalof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NorthwestRegionsinSouthKrea SoutheastonsChina NorthwestRegionsinSouthKrea SoutheastonsFigures502015-012015-072016-012016-072017-012017-072018-012018-072019-012019-072020-012020-072021-01Note:ThisfigureillustratestheevolutionofmonthlyaveragehourlyPM2.5.TheNorthwestregioninSouthKoreaisdefinedouthKoreathathavemorethanorequaltooffrequencyoftrajectoriescomingfromChinainFigureTheLatitudeLatitudengulanghaiTimeofarrival2015−06−1408PM2015−07−1210AM2016−01−1411PMLongitudeuaryiesmChinaLatitudeLatitudengShijiazhuangguiXingtaiHotananghaiPercent(%)86420E09E1009E1109E1209E1309ELongitudeyinPM2.5inSouthKorea(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKoreaResidualTransboundaryPM2.5(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKorea(μg/m)PM2.5inSouthKoreaResidualTransboundaryPM2.5(μg/m)fromChinatoSouthKoreaTransboundaryPM2.5fromChinatoSouthKoreaResidual402000004020-2000-5000-50insofsizePanelBplotsuthKoreaoncitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayofweektybytemperaturequartilexedeffectsagainstbinsofresidualsfromaregressionoftransboundaryPMoncitybyyearbymonthxedeffects,city-by-dayofweekfixedeffects,city-by-rainfallMarginaleffectoftransboundaryPMonmortality.2MarginaleffectoftransboundaryPMonmortality.0123456789Weeksinlag00-15-10-5In-Chinaratio(lowest)In-Chinaratio(low)In-Chinaratio(high)In-Chinaratio(highest)20152016201720182019tioTheethelatitudePMg/m3)inChinesecitiesPM2.5(µg/m3)inKoreancitiesAtopichinitisCYear-MonthFEMonth-CityFEDayofweek-CityFERainfallquartile-CityFETemperaturequartileCityFERainfalldecile-CityFEecileCityFERainfallquartileFEderlyantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionderlyantentllregressionsincludecitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitynderlyantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionderlyantategoryAllcolumnsincludecitybyyearbymonthxedeffectscitybydayofweekfixedeffects,city-by-rainfallquartilefixedeffects,city-by-temperaturequartilefixedeffects,andareweightedbyoupleantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionantMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionMarginaleffectas%increaseinmortalityMarginaleffectonannualmortality/millionagegrouphinitisAtopicleffectasincreaseinERvisitsMarginaleffectonannualERvisits/millionhinitisAtopicleffectasincreaseinERvisitsMarginaleffectonannualERvisits/millionOverallInfantYouthAdultElderly<11-1920-64>65ortstheper-yearspilloverbenefitforSouthKoreain2019USbilliondollars.WecalculatethebenefitsbasedontheestimatesoftheeductionhinagmAppendixADetailsoftheHYSPLITmodelBriefdescriptionoftheHYSPLITmodelgthemeantoftrajectoryanalysisisusefulfordeterminingtheparticledispersion,whilebacktrajectoryanalysisisusefulfordeterminingtheofpollutantsFigureA.1showshowforwardtrajectoriesarecalculatedintheHYSPLITmodel.GiventheinitialpositionP(t)andthefirst-guesspositionP\(t+∆t)=P(t)+V(P,t)∆twhereV(P,t)denotethevelocityvector,V(P,t)islinearlyinterpolated,P(t+∆t)=P(t)+．∆t.VP(t+∆t)=P(t)+．∆t.2ransportanddispersionmodeland/orREADYwebsite()usedinthispublication.SeeSteinetal.oreinformationonHYSPLIT21ForthemeteorologicaldatafortheHYSPLITmodel,weusetheNCEP/NCARReanalysisdata,availablefrom1948toalursPP(t+∆t)V(P\,t)∆tP\(t+∆t)V(P,t)∆t P(t)ComparisonbetweendifferentmethodsofanalysisintheHYSPLITmodelFirstwediscussthebenetsandlimitationsofforwardandbackwardtrajectoryanalyses.ForwardtrajectoryanalysisisyimaginerunningforwardtrajectorysimulationsfrompollutinggenicouthKoreawewouldideallysimulateforwardtrajectoriesfromallthecoordinatesinChinaHoweverwefaceanumberghtherpollutionoriginatedfromChinaThisairpollutionpickeduppollutionfromotherneighboringcountriesofChinaFortunatelythereisonlytheYellowSeabetweeneverthisisthelimitationoftheHYSPLITrdandbackwardtrajectoryanalysesThetrajectorycalculationreliesonthemeanwindspeedityvectorsobtainedfromtheinputmeteorologicalconditions.Thus,thetrajectoryanalysisintheHYSPLITmodelprovidestheITamongparticles.Duetothiswayofcomputation,particledispersionresultsinthearrivalofafewerparticlesasthedistanceConstructionofinstrumentalvariablesusingtheHYSPLITmodelnninghKoreafaceWecreatetwoinstrumentsusingtheHYSPLITmodel(denotethemZ1andZ2).Z1ttakesavalueof1ifthe200-hourorAppendixBAdditionalFiguresandTablesListofFiguresinAppendix age ListofTablesinAppendixHYPERLINK\l