平安银行(000001)利润高增资产质量稳-广发证券倪军,屈俊,伍嘉慧-20230117

发现价值免责声明发现价值平平安银行(000001.SZ)资产质量稳定核心观点：形成支撑。⚫Q4单季资产扩表以非信贷为主，预计息差继续小幅收敛。资产端，QQ有公司前三季度贷款核销规模已超去年全年，预计Q4核销力度依旧不未来随着经济回暖，零售需求修复，集团赋能优势持续发力，长期配理价值告日期相对市场表现3-01-1701/2203/2205/2207/2201/2203/2205/2207/2209/2211/2201/23-27%-35% 平安银行沪深300倪军倪军03646omSFCCENoBLZ4388286915ungfcom嘉慧wujiahuigfcomcn请注意，倪军,伍嘉慧并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。平安银行(000001.SZ):息，资产质量稳定平安银行(000001.SZ):负，资产质量稳定平安银行(000001.SZ):息信用成本继续回落22-10-252022-08-1822-04-26文雪enxueyang@价值价值 价值价值表索引 价值价值平安银行发布2022年度业绩快报，我们点评如下：全年营收、归母净利润同比分别季度营收、归母净利润同比分别增长-1.3%、23.0%，增速较22Q3单季度分别下滑续下行对业绩增长形成支撑。比和环比分别多增580亿元、400亿元。贷款同比增长8.7%，增速较22Q3末下行债成本率较年初下行6bp，券，存款成本率小幅上行。Q4资金利率上行，平安Q同业存单规模较Q3末下行613亿元，预计负债成本偏离度为83%，同比下降2pct，不良认定保持高标准。2022末，拨备覆盖率提升至-款率(%)1.681.681.651.651.65价值价值拨备覆盖率(%)8.42289.10290.06290.27290.2835932916405335-产收益率13.0813.0812.3611.3011.0810.8510.349.58价值价值%8%%8%.20%16.78%15.48%.20%16.78%15.48%8.71%00%%同比增速0%0%%0%同比增速2%3%24.83%25.71%24.36%2%3%24.83%0%价值价值26.83%25.62%25.82%25.26%1%%0%0%26.83%25.62%25.82%25.26%1%%0%0%14.28%14.10%%利润同比增速0%0%%0%0%5%速0%1%5.00%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4价值价值.83%8%0%%86%3%.83%8%0%%86%3%总额同比增速.00%0%0%0%0%0%季度额同比增速42.49%42.81%3%25.71%26.88%3%22.52%22.54%17.48%%4%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4母净利润同比增速.00%0%0%0%0%0%增速45.24%42.76%2019Q22019Q32019Q42020Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42022Q12022Q22022Q32022Q4价值价值0%8.00%6.00%4.00%%11.92%0%0%贷款总额同比增速20.49%20.17%19.14% 14.77%14.61%15.23%14.90%13.68%13.53%12.61%11.92%12.18%10.84%价值价值65.5%65.4%65.5%65.4%00%%存款总额同比增速11.29%11.85%11.04%11.29%7.33%6.74%6.10%款占资产比重、存款占负债比重存贷款占比贷款/总资产存款/总负债7.8%7.8%2.6%2.6%62.2%60.8%60.9%6价值价值二、盈利预测和投资建议预测：好，表1：平安银行关键指标假设E速存款增速产增速息负债增速收益率产收益率89%64%56%73%80%存款付息率%%%%计息负债付息率%%%%%M%%%%%收入增速7%0%拨备支出/平均贷款%%%%%价值价值表2：平安银行可比同业估值(截至2023年1月17日)码银行名称(百万元)(元)PB(倍)归母净利润(百万元)E6.SH-30.47银行-308.SH-30,407,041,687d-恢复背景下配置价质凸显，我们给予公司23年PB估值1.2X，合理价值25.66元/股，入”评级。三、风险提示下滑，疫情变化和外部环境存在诸多不确定性，可能导致经济价值价值(3)国际经济及金融风险超预期，当前国外局势较为复杂，可能带来超预期金融风(4)政策调控力度超预期，利率大幅波动，导致流动性风险超预期上升。价值价值2020A2021A2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E利润表净利息收入113,470120,336128,623149,869170,378利息收入201,007213,536228,831259,061290,928利息支出87,53793,200100,208109,192120,550净手续费收入29,66133,06229,75635,11240,379净其他非息收入10,41115,98521,58022,65926,058营业收入153,542169,383179,959207,639236,814营业支出116,633123,398122,414138,358153,725税金及附加1,5251,6442,0682,3782,700业务及管理费44,69047,93747,59954,81762,519营业利润36,90945,98557,54569,28283,089营业外净收入-95-95拨备前利润107,172119,696130,101150,349171,499资产减值损失70,41873,81772,74781,16288,506利润总额36,75445,87957,35469,18782,993所得税7,8269,54311,81514,25217,097净利润28,92836,33645,53954,93465,897归母净利润28,92836,33645,53954,93465,897资产负债表贷款总额2,666,2973,063,4483,329,0493,728,5354,138,674贷款减值准备63,21990,203108,840142,662185,973贷款净额2,610,8412,984,7533,220,2093,585,8733,952,700投资类资产1,143,6111,282,8891,347,0331,454,7961,571,180存放央行283,982312,033317,765386,335421,105同业资产272,484179,076196,984204,863213,057其他资产157,596162,629213,598234,490254,458生息资产4,366,3744,837,4465,190,8315,774,5296,344,016资产合计4,468,5144,921,3805,339,9545,862,2416,361,447存款2,695,9352,990,5183,344,8943,679,3844,010,528向央行借款124,587148,162163,520163,520163,520同业负债545,871425,228416,723458,396481,316发行债券611,865823,934782,737861,011929,892计息负债3,978,2584,387,8424,707,8755,162,3115,585,256负债合计4,104,3834,525,9324,904,0375,377,4075,817,975股东权益合计364,131395,448435,917484,834543,473资产质量不良贷款余额31,38531,27835,06737,66240,938不良贷款率1.02%1.05%1.01%0.99%不良净生成率2.40%1.80%1.89%1.50%1.30%拨备覆盖率201%288%284%296%302%拨贷比237%294%299%299%299%流动性存贷比98.90%102.44%99.53%101.34%103.20%贷款/总资产59.67%62.25%62.34%63.60%65.06%投资类资产/总资产25.59%26.07%25.23%24.82%24.70%同业资产/总资产610%364%369%349%335%2020A2021A2022E2023E2024E价值评估(倍)P/EP/BP/PPOP10.770.992.738.720.902.446.850.802.255.620.711.954.640.621.71每股指标EPS1.391.732.202.683.25BVPS15.1616.7718.8621.3824.40PPOPPS5.526.176.707.758.84DPS90.350.43股息支付率1299%1321%1321%1321%1321%股息收益率1.51%1.93%2.35%2.85%驱动性因素贷款增长14.8%14.9%8.7%12.0%11.0%存款增长9.6%10.9%11.9%10.0%9.0%生息资产增长134%108%73%112%99%计息负债增长13.0%10.3%7.3%9.7%8.2%平均贷款收益率6.32%5.96%5.88%6.20%平均生息资产收益率4.89%4.64%4.56%4.73%4.80%平均存款付息率2.01%2.08%2.08%2.07%平均计息负债付息率233%223%220%221%224%净息差(NIM)-测算值2.76%2.61%2.57%2.73%2.81%净利差(NIS)-测算值2.56%2.4