西藏第三产业发展对就业的影响探究,产业经济学论文

西藏第三产业发展对就业的影响探究,产业经济学论文本篇论文目录导航：【题目】西藏第三产业发展对就业的影响探究【第一章】【第二章】【3.1】【3.2】【3.3】【4.1】【4.2】【第五章】【以下为参考文献】内容摘要就业是民生之本，关乎人民的生活质量与社会稳定。我们国家是人口大国，一直以来都存在社会就业压力的难题。西藏经济发展固然起步较晚，但是最近几年也逐步出现劳动力剩余与构造性失业等引起的就业问题。配第-克拉克定律为我们解决就业难题指明了方向，该定律表示清楚：劳动力在三大产业间的转移趋势是由第一产业向第二产业转移，其次由第二产业向第三产业转移。与诸多学者以为当下发展第三产业是缓解就业压力和稳定社会的重要渠道。西藏的第一产业生产力不发达，仍处于自然经济向商品经济的转化阶段，农牧业吸纳了约44%的劳动力，如此宏大的就业比例正处于下降趋势。西藏的第二产业是嵌入式工业，生产力水平低且辐射能力弱，就业比重缺乏15%,就业吸纳能力非常弱，因而第二产业的发展对解决西藏的就业问题作用不大。固然西藏第三产业的发展基础薄弱，但其拥有后发优势,在国家和各兄弟省份的援助下发展很快。当前西藏第三产业的产值比重已经占据三大产业的首位，其就业比重已经超过40%并处于稳步上升状态，具有超越第一产业的趋势和潜力。由于西藏第一产业的劳动力已经到达饱和并产生剩余劳动力，第二产业对就业的吸纳能力弱，因而西藏解决就业问题的重任就落到第三产业上。通过实证研究西藏第三产业发展对就业效应的影响，讨论西藏第三产业促进就业的对策建议，对有效解决西藏的就业具有重要的现实意义。本文使用实证分析与规范分析相结合，定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方式方法。在梳理国内外学者关于第三产业对就业影响的理论基础上，通过研究西藏第三产业就业吸纳弹性和产业构造偏离度以及就业比例等指标，对西藏的三大产业、第三产业、第三产业内部各行业的就业带动效应进行分析；通过回归分析西藏第三产业增加值对第三产业就业人数的影响，研究结果表示清楚西藏第三产业对就业具有明显的正效应。结论也进一步证明，西藏第三产业是承接劳动力就业最有能力和潜力的产业。固然当前西藏第三产业的就业比重仍要略低于第一产业，但就其发展趋势看，第三产业有望成为产值比重和就业比重的双首产业，对西藏的经济发展和社会就业影响深远。然而西藏第三产业内部构造水平与全国平均水平相比存在一定差距，传统服务业如批发零售业、住宿餐饮业的就业吸纳能力较高，而当代服务业如金融业、房地产业的就业吸纳容量小，行业发展力度缺乏，有待于将来加强发展带动就业。基于以上，我们以为要提高西藏第三产业就业效应，一应从西藏第三产业整体角度出发，引导第一产业剩余劳动力向第三产业转移；二应从西藏第三产业内部行业角度出发，大力发展劳动密集型行业，如批发零售业、住宿餐饮业；稳定发展生产性服务业，如交通运输、仓储及邮政业；顺应市场发展新兴服务业，如金融业、房地产业。进而在质与量上提高西藏第三产业的就业效应。本文关键词语：西藏，第三产业，就业效应，实证分析ABSTRACTEmploymentisvitaltopeopleslivelihood,itisrelatedtopeoplesqualityoflifeandsocialstability.Chinaisthecountrywiththelargestpopulationintheworld,whichhasbeenunderthepressureofemploymentforalongtime.EconomicdevelopmentinTibet,thoughstartedlate,graduallyappearslaborsaturationprobleminrecentyears.sThelawofPetty-Clarkteachesushowtosolvetheemploymentproblem.Thelawshowsthatlaborinthethreeindustriestransferredfromthefirstindustrytothesecondindustry,followedbythesecondindustrytothethirdindustry.Thegovernmentandmanyscholarsconsiderthedevelopmentofthethirdindustryasthemethodtorelievethepressureonemploymentandsocialstability.Tibetsfirstindustrialproductiveforceisnotdeveloped,itisstillatthetransformationstagefromthenaturaleconomytothecommodityeconomy.Agricultureandanimalhusbandryhasabsorbedabout44%oftheworkforce,howeverthehugeemploymentproportionisdeclining.Thesecondindustryistheembeddedindustrywithlowlevelofproductivityandlowradiationcapacity.Employmentproportionofitisunder15%,whichisinferiortosolveTibetsemployment.AlthoughTibetsthirdindustryhasaweakdevelopmentfoundation,ithasapostadvantageanddevelopsrapidlyundertheassociationofbrotherprovinces.Currently,Tibetsthirdindustryoutputvaluehasoccupiedthefirstplaceinthethreeindustries,anditsemploymentproportionhasexceeded40%andisinasteadyupwardtrend.Tibetsthirdindustryhaspotentialtosurpassthefirstindustry.AsthefirstindustryinTibethasreachedsaturationandproducessurpluslabor,thesecondindustryisweak,theimportanttaskofsolvingtheemploymentprobleminTibetfallsintothethirdindustry.EmpiricalresearchontheinfluenceofemploymentbythethirdindustrydevelopmentandfindingpolicysuggestiontopromoteemploymenthasanimportantpracticalsignificanceforsolvingemploymentprobleminTibet.Thisarticleusesempiricalanalysisandnormativeanalysis,quantitativeanalysisandqualitativeanalysis,standingonthetheoreticalbasisofmanypredecessorsandintegradesthetheorywiththepracticeofpromotingemploymentbythirdindustry.Thispaperalsousesdescriptivestatistics,computingemploymentflexibilityandindustrialstructuredeviationdegreeandemploymentproportionindextodeepanalysistheinfluenceofthethirdindustryinpromotingemploymentinTibet.Atthesametime,weuseeconometricregressionanalysistoexploretheinfluenceofaddedvalueofthethirdindustryinTibettoemployment,combingwiththeaddedvalueofthethreemajorindustriesinfluenceontotalemployment,whichfurthertestandverifythatTibetsthirdindustryhasapositiveeffectonemployment.ConclusionshowsthatthethirdindustryinTibetisthemostcapableindustryofundertakinglaboremployment.AlthoughtheTibetanemploymentproportionofthethirdindustryisstillslightlylessthanthefirstindustry,butitisexpectedtobecomethedoublefirstindustrywhichhasthebiggestoutputvalueproportionandemploymentproportion.Tibetsthirdindustryhashadaprofoundimpactoneconomicdevelopmentandsocialemployment.Thoughthisindustryhasalowlevelofinternalstructure,traditionalserviceindustrysuchaswholesaleandretailtrade,accommodationcateringindustrysemploymentabsorptioncapacityishigher.Modernserviceindustriessuchasfinance,realestatesemploymentabsorptioncapacityissmall,theyaresubjecttostrengthenthedevelopmenttocreatemoreemploymentopportunitiesinthefuture.InordertoimprovetheeffectofthethirdindustryonemploymentinTibet,weproposedtochangingemploymentidea,improvingthequalityofthelaborers,speedinguptheprocessofurbanizationfromtheperspectiveofthethirdindustryasawhole.FromtheAngleofinternalindustry,wesuggestdevelopingthelabor-intensiveindustry,strengtheningthedevelopmentofproducerservices,payingattentiontothedevelopmentofemergingservices.TheseemploymentpolicyrecommendationshelptoimprovetheeffectofthethirdindustryinTibetonemploymentinthequalityandquantity.KEYWORDS:Tibet,thirdindustries,employmenteffect,empiricalanalysis目录第一章绪论第一节研究背景第二节研究目的与意义第三节研究方式方法与创新第四节研究思路及逻辑框架第二章概念界定及理论综述第一节第三产业与就业效应的概念界定一