贝恩+2023全球奢侈品市场研究预测

tyThelatestBain-AltagammaLuxuryGoodsWorldwideMarketStudyforecastsincreasedresiliencetorecessionafterrobust2022growth.AbouttheauthorsandFilippoPrete.vanaghngmemberoftheLuxuryeceCopyright©2022Bain&Company,Inc.Allrightsreserved.1RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundContentsExecutivesummary 2Luxuryspendingtrendsin2022 5Regionalhighlights 10Distributiontrends 15Individualcategoryperformance 18Outlookforthefuture 22Appendix 262RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundExecutivesummaryeveninTheoverallluxuryindustrytrackedbyBain&CompanyencompassesbothluxurygoodsandospitalityandpersonalluxuryseduxuryspendingcontinuedtoskewtowardproductswithsteepgrowthinpersonalluxurygoodsSpendingonexperienceswillbethelastusofllengesinChinathesectorperformedstronglyacrossquartersanditislikelytohavereached53billionaverageLuxuryin2023:Moreresilienttorecessionthanin2009loped3RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundutinwithsalesgrowthinthepersonalluxurygoodsOldmarketslead,butnewcomerssurpriseructurecanevolvequicklyenoughAmongtherisingstarsStoreswinbacktheirroleOutperformanceofallcategoriesandapparelleadingtheresurgencefollowingthepandemicAdeliberateandeffectiveingExpanding,yetelevated,customerbasedesintooverdrive4RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundStronggenerationalandtechnologytrendstoreshapethemarketthrough2030t5LuxuryLuxuryspendingtrendsin2022`TheoverallluxurymarkettrackedbyBain&Companycomprisesninesegments:luxurycars,personalluxurygoods,luxuryhospitality,finewinesandspirits,gourmetfoodandfinedining,high-endfurnitureandhousewares,fineart,privatejetsandyachts,andluxurycruises.Luxurycars,luxuryhospitality,andpersonalluxurygoodstogetheraccountfor80%ofthetotalmarket.Overall,weestimatethatin2022theluxurymarket’soverallretailsalesvaluegrewby19%–21%to€1.38trillion,or8%–10%above2019levels.Allsegmentsgainedmomentum,butonlyluxuryhospitalityandcruiseshaven’tyetclosedthegapwithpre-Covidlevels.`Salesofluxurycars,thebiggestportionoftheoverallmarket,hitanewrecord,reachinganestimated€566billion,6%morethan2021atcurrentexchangeratesand3%above2019.Luxurycarsarestillsubjecttosupplychaindisruption,withcomponentshortagesfurtherheightenedbytheRussia-Ukrainewar.InEurope,high-endAsianautomakers,particularlyChinesebrands,havegainedsharefromlocalrivals.Asconsumerinterestingreenervehiclesgrows,alongwithgovernmentencouragement,premiumcarmanufacturershavefocusedonlargermodels,toeasethehighercostofelectric-carcomponents.Demandforpersonalizationanddigitalconnectivityrose.Consumerexpectationsforservicelevelsarerisingtoo,withbrandsembracingdirect-to-consumermodelstocreateamoreluxuriousshoppingexperienceateverystage.`Theluxuryhospitalitymarketsurgedtoanestimated€191billion,morethandoublinginvaluein2022.Inspiteof110%year-over-yeargrowthatcurrentexchangerates,saleswerestilldown7%fromtheir2019level.GrowthwassteadyacrossregionsaspeoplefinallyrealizedtravelambitionspreviouslyblockedbyCovid,usingmoneytheycouldn’tspendontripsduringthepandemic.However,Chineselockdowns,acontinuedshortfallininternationalAsiantourism,andlimitedbusinesstravelconstrainedtotalmarketgrowth.Travelerswerelurednotjusttoleadingcitiesbutalsotoout-of-the-waydestinations,inkeepingwiththepandemictrendtoseek6RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundruralsolitude.Intuitiveservicethatgoesbeyondmerelyoffering“thehumantouch”isbecomingmorecrucial,andoperatorsareincreasinglylookingtotechnologytoautomatepredictabletasksandfreeemployeestofocusonthemostimportantinteractions.`Salesoffinewinesandspiritshit€96billion,up16%on2021.Spiritsgrewfasterthanwine,with“statusspirits”growinginternationallyandacrosscategories,tappingintousageoccasionsoncereservedforwines.Sparklingwine(andnotjustChampagne)gainedshareoverstill.`Gourmetfoodandfinedininggrew12%atcurrentexchangeratesto€57billion,completingitsrecoverytoprepandemiclevels,associalrestrictionswereliftedacrossmajorcities.Thepandemic-fueledinterestinconsuminggourmetfoodathomecontinued,boostingselectfoodretailersandfosteringdemandforculinaryeducation.Thehighendfurnitureandhousewaresmarketreached3billion,up13%from2021.Thegrowthwasfueledbythegreateremphasisconsumershavebeenplacingontheirhomelife—asbothshelterandsourceofself-definition—sincethepandemic.Lightingandliving/bedroomcategoriesbenefitedthemost,asconsumerslookedformorecomfort,functionality,andbeauty.Demandforhigh-endfurnitureandfixturesincommercialspaceswasdrivenbyanincreasingappetiteforrefinedaestheticsandhigherquality.`Thefineartmarketgrew13%to€39billion,astheranksofpotentialbuyersswelledandnewAsianarthubsstrengthened.Artbenefitedfrombeingseenbythewealthyasanalternativeassettohedgeagainstvolatilityinfinancialmarkets.Inkeepingwithgreatersocialinterestindiversity,equity,andinclusion,galleriesandcollectorsfocusedmoreonareassuchaswomenartistsandAfricanart.Thenonfungibletoken(NFT)marketstabilizedafterawaveofspeculativeinterestfrominvestors.Art-basedNFTsstillrepresentalimited—albeitexpanding—portionoftheoverallmarket;artistsarelookingforwaystomeaningfullyintegrateNFTsintofinearts.`Salesofprivateyachtsandjetsgrewby18%atcurrentexchangeratesrelativeto2021,reaching€26billion.Luxuryyachtordersrosetoarecordlevel,amidsolidgrowthindeliveries.Interestfromhigh-net-worthindividualscontinuedtorise,reflectingadesirefordeeperconnectionswithnatureandcomfort;designsincreasinglyreflectthesepreoccupations,throughfeaturessuchasenlargedsternareasorapreferenceforexploreryachtsabletosailtotheremotestareas.Sustainabilityremainsafocusforbothconsumersandshipyards,fromgreenerpropulsionsystemstodesign-for-disassemblysolutionsthatmakeyachtmaterialsmorerecyclable.Wealthyindividualsturnedtoprivatejetsmorein2022,mercialtravel.However,risingsustainabilityconcerns,coupledwithincreasedoperationalcosts,narrowedthepotentialcustomerbaseandrestrictedairplaneutilizationrates.7RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound`Whensegmentedintogoodsvs.experiences,spendingcontinuedtoskewtotangibleproductsin2022.Thesteepestgrowthratebetween2019and2022belongedtopersonalluxurygoods,followedbyexperience-basedgoods,suchasfineartandluxurycars.Demandforluxuryexperienceshasbeenimproving,butthissegmentwillbethelastofthethreetoregainits2019levels,probablyin2023.`Themarketforpersonalluxurygoods—theheartoftheentireluxuryindustry—enjoyedanotheryearofstrongdouble-digitgrowth.Salesaresettohitanewrecordin2022,withthemarketforecasttogrowby22%atcurrentexchangeratesto€353billion.Themostlikelyoutcomeinthefourthquarterof2022isa19%year-over-yearriseinsales,whichwouldbeaslightslowdownfrom23%growthinthethirdquarter.8RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundFigure1:ThegloballuxurymarkethasfullyrecoveredfromtheCovid-19crisis,havinggrown8%–10%over2019Worldwideluxurymarket,2022E(€billions)575339265753961915663532019–22Eoverallgrowthatcurrentexchangerates2021–22EgrowthatcurrentexchangeratesatconstantexchangeratesndicatesestimatedgrowthourceBainCompanyPersonalluxurygoods26%22%Luxurycars3%6%Luxuryhospitality–7%95%Finewinesandspirits26%9%Gourmetfoodandfinedining8%High-endfurnitureandhouse-wares24%9%Fineart7%5%PrivatejetsandyachtsLuxurycruises–25%355%325%Total19%–21%Figure2:Personalluxurygoodsandexperience-basedgoodshavedriventhepost-Covidrecovery;luxuryexperiencesarestilllaggingbutonapositivetrajectoryGrowthofgloballuxurygoodssegments,indexedto2010AGRExperience-basedgoods8%PersonalgoodsExperiencesPersonalgoodsExperiencesOverallgrowth2019–22E25%–7%2010111213141516171819202122ENotes:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates;experience-basedgoodsincludefineart,luxurycars,privatejetsandyachts,finewinesandspirits,andgourmetfood;personalgoodsincludehigh-endfurniture/housewaresandpersonalluxurygoods;experiencesincludeluxuryhospitality,cruises,andfinediningSource:Bain&Company92021QOQgrowthvs.20192022QOQgrowthvs.2021rstcase26%23%9%7%3%2%0%RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound2021QOQgrowthvs.20192022QOQgrowthvs.2021rstcase26%23%9%7%3%2%0%Figure3:After2021’sV-shapedrebound,2022setanewrecordforpersonalluxurygoodssales,despitebroaderturbulenceanduncertaintyGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket(€billions)353290282902622542622542202220866750675047472812212228987684876199697989900010203040506070809101112131415161718192021221996–2019CAGR6%2019–22Eoverallgrowth+26%++26%AtcurrentAtconstantexchangeratesexchangerates2021–22Egrowth+22%+15%AtcurrentAtconstantexchangeratesexchangerates“Sortiedutemple”DemocratizationCrisisChineseaccelerationRebootNewnormalCovid-19crisisandreboundRenaissanceourceBainCompanyFigure4:The2022holidayseasonishardtopredict,duetoastrongperformancein2021,possiblemacroeconomicheadwinds,andChina’sgradualrecoveryGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,estimatedquarterlygrowth(atcurrentexchangerates)Expectedfull-yearmarketgrowthbyscenario(2021–22E)BestcaseBasecaseWorstcase24%+17%atconstantexchangerates22%+15%atconstantexchangerates19%+12%atconstantexchangeratesQ1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4EQOQgrowthvs.2021atconstantexchangerates22%11%15%13%ourceBainCompanyRegionalRegionalhighlights`Theglobalrankingofluxurysalesbyregionchangedin2022,astheAmericasregainedthetoppositionforpersonalluxurygoodssales.Asia(excludingJapan)switchedtosecondposition,followedbyEurope.`Thepersonalluxurygoodsmarketreachedanestimated€113billionintheAmericas,growing25%over2021.Performancewasparticularlyrobustinthefirsthalfoftheyear.IntheUnitedStates,traditionalluxuryhubsgraduallyreturnedtogrowthwhilesuburbanareasretainedtheirnewprominenceasasourceofluxurysales.LatinAmericaexperiencedsolidgrowth,especiallyinMexicoandBrazil.`Asiasurgedby43%whenmainlandChinaandJapanwereexcluded,reflectingtheboomingperformanceofThailandandotherSoutheastAsiancountries,aswellasastellaryearforSouthKorea,whichnarrowedthegapwithJapanintermsofmarketsize.HongKongandMacauwereweakerspots,whileTaiwanslowlyrecovered.byprolongedCovidlockdownsinthesecondquarter,whichaffectedconsumerconfidenceandresultedinlacklusterperformanceacrossallcategoriesandchannels(includingonline).WeobservedareboundwhenandwhereCovidrestrictionswerelifted,yetnotenoughtooffsettheperformanceofthesecondquarter.`ConsumptionwasverystronginEurope.Allmarketsfaredwellthroughouttheyear,aidedbyhealthydomesticdemandandthereturnoftouristsfromtheUSandMiddleEast.ThespendingofUStouristsinEuropedoubledbetween2019and2022;abouttwo-thirdsofthatgainreflectedanincreaseintransactionswhiletheotherthirdcamefromanincreaseinaveragetransactionsize,accordingtoGlobalBluedata.ItalyandFrancewerethe2022growthchampions,followedbyTurkey,theUK,andSpain,whileGermanysoftened.TheRussianmarketwasmostlyinactiveduetowar-relatedsuspensionofoperations.RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound`Japangrewby18%atcurrentexchangeratesto€24billion,finallycatchinguptoitspre-Covidlevel.LocalJapaneseconsumptionwassolid,andthemarketalsobenefitedfromthereturnoftouristsafterthecountryreopenedtovisitors.`Althoughtherewillneverbe“anotherChina”intermsofoutsizegrowthcontributiontotheindustry,IndiaandemergingSoutheastAsianandAfricancountrieshavesignificantpotential,iftheluxuryindustry’sinfrastructure(suchasmalls)andregulationcanevolvequicklyenoughinthosemarkets.Indiastandsout;itsluxurymarketcouldexpandto3.5timestoday’ssizeby2030,propelledbyyoungercustomersandanexpandingupperandmiddleclass.%22%4%–6%6%–8%22%–24%32%–34%4%27%%4%%22%4%–6%6%–8%22%–24%32%–34%4%27%%4%%%Figure5:TheAmericaswerebacktobeingthebiggestregionforpersonalluxurygoodssales;EuropegrewthefastestGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byregion(€billions)390906254625445201220122072010111213141516171819202122EAGR2010–22ERestofworldJapanEurope4%Asia(excludingJapan)Americas7%AGR2019–22E%YOYgrowth2021–22E21%27%25%Notes:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates;IndiaincludedinAsiaSource:Bain&CompanyFigure6:EuropeanandAmericancustomersshowedarenewedappetiteforluxuryin2022,asdidAsianmarketsoutsideofChinaandJapanShareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byconsumernationality(€billions)28129035344%–6%6%–8%21%–23%22%–24%30%–32%2019American 20212022E2021EuropeanerAsianChineseJapaneseRestEuropeanerAsianNote:Segmentsmaynottotal100%duetoroundingSource:Bain&CompanyShareofglobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,byregion(€billions)28129035344%21%26%%2022E20192022E2019AmericasEuropeChinaJapanRestofAsiaRestofworldonoulmesticcustomersonoulmesticcustomersRenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundFigure7:TheUSremainedthelargestmarket,whilesalesinSouthKorea,France,andtheUKwerehighlyconcentratedinasinglecityPersonalluxurygoodsmarket,topcountries2022E(€billions)GermanyGermanyeSouthKoreaJapanMainlandChinaMainlandChinaingTopcityincountryourceBainCompanyFigure8:Europesurpassedits2019levels,thankstostrongdomesticdemandandanextraboostfromtouristsEuropeanpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,2019–22E(€billions)013420192021DomesticgrowthTouristgrowth2022ESourcesGlobalBlueBainanalysisEmergingAfricancountries10M20222030FRenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundEmergingAfricancountries10M20222030FFigure9:Emergingcountriesarepoisedtogainabout70millionmid-andhigh-incomeconsumers(40%ofChina’sincreasesince2014)Forecastednumberofnewmid-andhigh-incomeconsumersbetween2022and2030(percentagerelativetoChina’s2014–22increase)a+35M–40M%)202220302022SoutheastAsia+20M–25M%)202220302022thAfricaandNigeriaNotes:SoutheastAsiaincludesIndonesia,Singapore,Malaysia,thePhilippines,thAfricaandNigeriaSource:Bain&CompanyDistributionDistributiontrends`Brandscontinuedtoexertmorecontrolovertheirdistribution,withdirectlyoperatedchannels`Monobrandstoreswereboostedbythewillingnessofcustomerstoreturntoin-personshopping.Onlinesalesrose20%from2021to2022toreachanestimated€75billion.Theonlinechannel’smarketshareremainedinlinewith2021.Monobrandwebsitesgainedfurtherground,raisingtheirsharetoabout45%oftheonlinesegment,upfrom43%in2021.`Departmentstoresexperiencedfastergrowththaninpreviousyears,gaining20%.ThatreflectedarenewedvaluepropositionintheUSandsuccessfulreengagementwithtouristsinEurope.equivalentto1.3timesthegrowthratefornewluxurygoods.Thatratiohascomedownfrom3.4timesin2018.TheUSandEuropestillcommandthelion’sshareofthemarket,butAsia(especiallyChina)acceleratedasconsumeracceptanceincreased.Internationally,secondhandgrowthwasaidedbysustaineddemandforwatches,whichaccountfor60%–70%ofthetotalmarket.Assalesofsecondhandgoodsononlineplatformssoared,brandsaremovingtoincreasetheirdirectcontrolofthemarket.908122%%20%%496250%Wholesale3%20%54%4544908122%%20%%496250%Wholesale3%20%54%45442019120746850%Ownedretail11%23%9Figure10:OwnedretailgainedfurthergroundandisnowonparwithwholesaleGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bychannel(€billions)YOYCAGRCAGRgrowth2010–22E2019–22E2021–22E3909040002E1Note:GrowthshownatcurrentexchangeratesSource:Bain&CompanyFigure11:Monobrandstoressawstronggrowthin2022whiletheonlinechannel’smarketsharenormalized;travelretailwasrevitalizedbutremainsfarbelowprepandemiclevelsGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bydistributionchannelandformat(€billions)21%%201920212022E20192021Note:GrowthshownatcurrentexchangeratesSource:Bain&CompanyYOYgrowth2021–22ETravelTravelretailOutletOutletDepartmentstore20%Specialty15%Online20%Monobrand26%30B+92%vs.201943%10B+44%vs.201735%330%Renaissancein30B+92%vs.201943%10B+44%vs.201735%330%Figure12:Theonlineluxurymarketgrewatdouble-digitrates,inlinewiththeoverallmarket;monobrandonlinestorescontinuedtogainshareGlobalonlinepersonalluxurygoodsmarket(€billions)12B+20%+20%vs.202175MonobrandMonobrandsites45%20172022E201920172022EShareofluxurymarketonline22%21%Note:GrowthshownatcurrentexchangeratesSource:Bain&CompanyFigure13:ThesecondhandluxurymarketcontinuedtoexpandSecondhandvs.newluxurygoodsmarket(indexedto100in2017)€43Bvalue€43Bvaluein2022Annualgrowthofsecondhandmarketvs.newmarket22EourceBainCompanyIndividualIndividualcategoryperformance`Allpersonalluxurygoodscategoriesperformedwellin2022,withdouble-digitgrowthratesacrosstheboard.Allcategorieshavenowrecoveredto2019levelsorbetter,withhardluxury,leathergoods,andapparelleadingtheresurgencefollowingthepandemic.`Accessoriesremainedthelargestpersonalluxurygoodscategoryandgrewby21%–23%.Withinaccessories,leathergoodsgrewby23%–25%,farsurpassingitspre-Covidlevels(up39%–41%comparedwith2019).Iconicmodelsandnewheroproductswerethemostdesirableitems.Recognizablebrandsignifiers(whetherashape,apieceofmetalware,amaterial,oramonogram)remainedpopular.Smallleathergoodsgainedfurthertraction.Theleathergoodscategoryhasbenefitedfromageneralizedpriceincrease(fromthemostexpensiveproductstoentry-levelitems)thatdidn’thampervolumegrowth.Between2021and2022,about70%ofleathercategorygrowthhasbeendrivenbypriceincreases;bycontrast,priceincreasesaccountedforonlyabout50%ofcategorygrowthfrom2019to2021.`Theapparelcategorygrewby22%–24%in2022,aidedbywardroberestocking.Womenswearandmensweargrewataboutthesamepace.“Post-streetwear”isemergingasthenewlook.Itmaintainssomeelementsofstreetwear(suchasgenderfluidity,adisregardforoccasion,inclusiveness,andsports-driveninspiration),butgoesbeyonditsstylecodesthroughnewandenhancedtechniques,materials,andfunctions.`Beautyreached€69billion,upa“mere”14%–16%on2021(butstilldoubleitspre-Covidgrowthratein2019).Themakeupandfragrancescategoriesledgrowth.Travelretailisinrecoverymode,atleastinWesternmarkets,butnotyetbackonitspre-Covidtrack.`Watcheshaveevolvedfromachallengedcategorytothenewobjectofdesire.Salesofnewwatchesgrewby22%–24%andreachedarecord€52billion,reflectingsoliddemandfortop-of-the-rangemodelsandiconicpieces,butgrowthwascappedbylowproductavailability.Salesofsecondhandwatches,estimatedatanadditional€25–€30billion,rapidlygrewin2022,fueledbytheappetiteofGenerationZandmillennialsforinvestmentandresaleopportunities,giventhehighresilienceofthecategoryduringcrises.RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound`Jewelrysalesin2022areestimatedtohaverisento€28billion,up23%–25%from2021.Brandsinvestedheavily(andsuccessfully)tofueldemand.“Uber-luxury”jewelryoutperformedglobally,asdidiconicpiecesandlines.Fashionjewelryshowedsolidgrowth.`Shoesgrewby20%–22%comparedwith2021toreach€28billion.Heelsandformalshoesarenowbacktotheir2019levels.Casualcategories,suchasfussbettsandalsandWellingtonboots,areontherise.20RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidReboundFigure14:AccessoriesremainedthelargestcategorywhileapparelandhardluxurygrewthefastestGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bycategory(€billions)22072010–22E2019–22Egrowth21–22EApparelardluxuryApparelardluxuryAccessories9%10%21%–23%Notes:Growthshownatcurrentexchangerates;hardluxuryincludesjewelryandwatchesSource:Bain&CompanyFigure15:Allcategorieshavewellexceededtheir2019levelsGlobalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket,bycategory(€billions)22EApparel22%–24%22%–24%29%–31%20%–22%34%–36%welry3%–25%36%–38%25–3040RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound25–3040Figure16:LuxurywatcheshavebeenrediscoveredandmovedfromachallengedcategorytothenewobjectofdesireGloballuxurywatchmarket,atgrossmerchandisevalue(€billions)NewSecondhandCAGR22E448822ENote:GrowthshownatcurrentexchangeratesSource:Bain&CompanyOutlookOutlookforthefuture`Luxurybrandshavefacedthreeyearsoftremendousturbulenceanduncertainty,buttheindustryshowsmorestrength,resilience,andabilitytoinnovatethanbefore.Profitlevelsthathadquicklyrecoveredpost-Covidtoanaverage21%in2021haveslightlyerodedin2022,downto19%–21%.Whiletheindustryhasbenefitedfromincreasedpricesandacontinuedshifttohigher-margindirectchannels,thelowerprofitlevelsreflectluxurybrands’investmentinfuturegrowth,particularlythroughincreasedmarketingspendingandambitioustransformationprograms.However,theprofiterosionalsoreflectshigherenergypricesandincreasedlaborcosts.Noneofthishasstoppedbrandsfrominvestinginmodernizingtheiroperations,especiallythroughmorerobustinformationtechnologyinfrastructuretosupporttheongoingdigitalizationoftheindustry,andthroughareconfigurationoftheirstorenetworks(primarilythroughrenovationandrelocationprojects).`Therobustperformancein2022suggeststhatgrowthshouldstayhealthyforthepersonalluxurygoodsmarketinthemediumterm.Weexpectthatsolidmarketfundamentalswillresultinannualgrowthratesbetween5%and7%until2030.Wethereforeforecastthatthemarketvalueofpersonalluxurygoodswillrisetobetween€540billionand€580billionbytheendofthepresentdecade,fromanestimated€353billionin2022—anincreaseofmorethan50%.`Fourgrowthengineswillprofoundlyreshapetheluxurymarketby2030:–Chineseconsumersshouldregaintheirpre-Covidstatusasthedominantnationalityforluxury,growingtorepresent38%–40%ofglobalpurchases.–MainlandChinashouldovercometheAmericasandEuropetobecomethebiggestluxurymarketglobally(25%–27%ofglobalpurchases).–Youngergenerations(GenerationsY,Z,andAlpha)willbecomethebiggestbuyersofluxurybyfar,representing80%ofglobalpurchases.–Onlineshouldbecometheleadingchannelforluxurypurchaseswithanestimated32%–34%marketshare,followedbymonobrandstores(30%–32%marketshare).23RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovidRebound`By2030,luxuryshouldhaveexpandedbeyonditstraditionalbusinessmodel,typicallydefinedbysalesofproducts,transcendinganoriginalformrootedincraftmanshipandfunctionalexcellence.Broadermeaningsandbusinessmodelswillemerge.Weexpectthatthegrowthofnewtypesofactivities,oftenpoweredbytechnology,willresultinanadditional€60billionto€120billionofluxuryindustrysales.Thiscouldincluderevenuesgeneratedby:–themetaverseandNFTs(suchasthroughcollectiblesandothernewproductsandservices);–themonetizationofcommunities(throughvirtualeventsanddatamonetization,forinstance);–brand-relatedmediacontent(suchasmovies,music,andart);–secondhandluxurygoods(bybringingmoresecondhandsalesin-house,forinstance);and–“3.0experiences”(suchasvirtualstores,digitalshoppingassistants,andultra-luxurytravelandhospitality).243908120RenaissanceinUncertainty:LuxuryBuildsonItsCovid3908120Figure17:Profitabilityslightlydecreasedin2022asplayersinvestingrowth(marketing,renovations,IT,transformationcosts)whilefacinginflationEBITmarginofselectedpersonalluxurygoodsbrands2007080910111213141516171819202122ENote:EBITisearningsbeforeinterestandtaxesSource:Bain&CompanyFigure18:Solidmarketfundamentalsshouldleadtoapositivemedium-termtrajectoryforpersonalluxurygoods(withpotentialbumpsalongtheway)Globalpersonalluxurygoodsmarket(€billions)6%–7%2019–30FCAGR5%–7%2022E–30FCAGR540–5