成果环境经济学

AsianCountries’sPolicyonClimateChange韩卓征

舒帆

白朵

朱宣映

刘俊稳OutlineIntroduction/SituationEffectChinapolicyonclimatechangeJapanpolicyonclimatechangeComparison/ConclusionWhatistheGlobalwarming?AnunequivocalandcontinuingriseintheaveragetemperatureofEarth'sclimatesystemGlobalCO2EmissionGlobalGHGEmissionCO2Emissionpercapitabycountry2010CumulativeCO2emissionsafterIndustrialrevolutions(1850-2006)GlobalLand-OceanTemperatureIndexGlobalLand&OceanMeanTemperatureAnomalyMap10-yearAverageGlobalMean

TemperatureAnomalyThemapshowsthe10-yearaverage(2000–2009)globalmeantemperatureanomalyrelativetothe1951–1980mean.ThelargesttemperatureincreasesareintheArcticandtheAntarcticPeninsula.IEACO2Emissionsperyear

vs.IPCCScenariosFossilfuelrelatedcarbondioxide(CO2)emissionscomparedtofiveoftheIPCC's"SRES"emissionsscenarios.Thedipsarerelatedtoglobalrecessions.

GlobalLandMeanTempAnomalyMapGlobalMapofWhetherEventsEconomiccostofclimatechangeClimatechangeisalreadycontributingtothedeathsofnearly400,000peopleyearandcostingtheworldmorethan$1.2trillion,wiping1.6%annuallyfromglobalGDP,accordingtoanewstudy.EconomicCostsofrisingsealevelsinAsiaandthePacificEastAsia:About12million:thenumberofpeoplein23EastAsiancitieswhoareatriskoseverefloodingfromrisingsealevels$864billion:Estimatedvalueofassetsinthese23citiesLessthan0.3%ofGDP:Annualcostbetween2010-2050toprotectthemostvulnerablesectors-infrastructure,coastalzones,agriculture–fromtheeffectsofclimatechange.SoutheastAsia:Upto3millimeters:TheriseofsealevelperyearMorethantwice:By2010,themeancostofclimatechangeforIndonesia,thePhilippines,Thailand<andVietnamcouldbeequivalenttolosing6.7%ofcombinedGDPeachyear,morethantwicetheglobalaverageloss$5billion:TheaverageyearlycostofadaptationmeasuresinthefourcountriesPacific:Morethan1meter:SealevelriseUpto15.2%:AnnualGDPlosttoclimatechangeby2100Upto$775million:RequiredperyeartoopreparefortheclimatechangeworstcasescenarioEarth'sclimatechangeorglobalwarminghasbroughtthethreatsonhumanhealthandsurvival.Thesethreatsaremainlyforinstanceinthefollowingaspects,suchasmeltingglaciersandrisingsealevels,rampantdiseases,extremeweather,foodcrisis,theextinctionofspecies.Itisextremelydifficulttousethedatatoaccuratelyestimatethedamagebyglobalwarming.Itmightbemoreintuitivetoexaminethedirecteconomiclossesinrecentyearsandinthefuture,inanumberofcountriesintheworld,causedbyglobalwarming.Itisestimatedthatoverthepastfiveyears(2006-2010)theglobalwarminghascauseddirecteconomiclossesofabout350billionUSDintheworld(AkomoB,2011).Table1isaroughestimate,predictingthattheaveragetemperatureoftheEarthincreased2.5ᵒC,differentcountriesintheworldwouldmeettheeconomicloss(lossaccountsforapercentageofGDP).In2010,forexample,theworld'sGDPwas74,000billionUSD(WorldBank,2011),

ifthesurgeintheworldaveragetemperaturewas2.5ᵒC,itisestimatedthattheglobaleconomiclossescouldbe74,000x1.9%=1,400billionUSD.2011naturaldisasterscostarecord$265billionPoliticiansmightbenotbelieveinclimatechange,butinsurancecompaniesdo.Theytrackdisasters,anditturnsoutthatdisastersjustinthefirstsixmonthsofthatyearalreadycosttheworldmorethananyotheryearofdisastersonrecord.Thepricetagfor2011disastersreached$265billion.Mostofthatcost($210billion)camefromthetsunamiinJapan.ButfloodinginAustraliatornadoesintheUS,theearthquakesinNewZealandalsocontributed.GreenhousegasesatrecordhighGreenhousegasesintheatmospherehavereachedanotherrecordhighasglobalwarmingcontinuestopickuppace.CO2accountedfor80percentofthisincrease,predominantlyduetofossilfuelemissions,theWorldMeteorologicalOrganizationsaid.TheimpactofclimatechangecouldincreasethepriceofbreakfastcerealandotherhouseholdfoodsKelloggandNestleareamongtheworld’sBig10foodanddrinkcompanieswhocollectivelyemitmoregreenhousesgasesthanNordiccountriescombined.TheinternationalaidagencysaidtheBig10includedAssociatedBritishFoods(ABF),Coca-Cola,Danone,GeneralMills,Kellogg,Mars,MondelēzInternational,Nestlé,PepsiCoandUnilever,andcalledonthemtostartworkingtowardsreducingemissionsthatoccur"outsidetheirownfourwalls.The‘Big10'companiesarefailingtousetheirpowerresponsiblyandwewillallsuffertheconsequences.These“consequences”includerisingfoodpricesforconsumers.ClimatechangeandextremesinChinaChinaCarbondioxideemissionsofChinaPrioritiesandLimitation

EffectsofGlobalWarminginChina

ChinaExtremeweatherevents

like

droughtsandfloodsduetoglobalclimatechange.GlaciersinChinaHaveShrunkby15Percentin30Years(2014.05)Chinaisgoingtoremove5.33millioncarsfromtheroadsthisyearinanefforttodecreasetheairpollutionincities.

(2014.05.27)CarbonDioxideEmissionsChinaCarbonDioxideEmissions

CarbonDioxideEmissionsChinacoalcontributedmorethan80%tothetotalenergy-relatedCO2emissionsinChina.TheproportionofcementintotalCO2wasabout3–4%inthe1980sand1990s,andthengrewtoabout9–10%inthe2000s.Coaluseandemissionsstartedtogrowrapidlyinthe2000s.China’sshareofglobalenergy-relatedCO2emissionshasincreasedinjusteightyearsfrom14%in2000to22%in2008.Chinaistheworld'slargestproducerandconsumerofcoalandholdsanestimated14percent(thirdlargestbehindtheUSandRussia)oftheworld’stotalcoalreserves.PositionoftheChineseGovernmentonClimateChange

ChinaThepositionoftheChinesegovernmenton

climatechange

iscontentious.Chinahasratifiedthe

KyotoProtocol,butasa

non-AnnexIcountry

whichisnotrequiredtolimit

greenhousegas

emissionsundertermsoftheagreement.

Inthe12thFYP,theChinesegovernmentproposedacarbonintensityreductiontargetforthefirsttime.TheattitudeofChinesepolicymakerstowardclimatechangepolicyrecentlyunderwentaradicalchange,fromhavingnoexplicitclimatechangepoliciestoaPresidentialcommitmenttoreducecarbonintensity.The12thFYPmentionstheneedtocontroltotalenergyconsumption,andtograduallyestablishacarbonmarket.ClimateChangeMitigationMeasuresChinaChinesenationalcarbontradingschemeThe

Chinesenationalcarbontradingscheme

wasannouncedinNovember2008bythe

nationalgovernment

toenforceacompulsory

carbontrading

schemeacrossthecountry's

provinces

aspartofitsstrategytocreatea"lowcarboncivilization".Theschemewouldallowprovincestoearnmoneybyinvestingin

carboncapturesystems

inthoseregionsthatfailtoinvestinthetechnology.TheEconomistIntelligenceUnit

producedareportin2013on

China'sexperimentswithcarbontrading,addressingthechallengesincreatingsuchaprogrammedinChina.

China12thFive-yearPlan2011-2015InJanuary2012,aspartofits12thFive-yearPlan,ChinapublishedareportonGreenhouseEmissionControlwhichestablishesgoalsofreducingcarbonintensityby17%by2015,comparedwith2010levelsandraisingenergyconsumptionintensityby16%,relativetoGDP.

Moredemandingtargetsweresetforthemostdevelopedregionsandthosewithmostheavyindustry,includingGuangdong,Shanghai,Jiangsu,ZhejiangandTianjin.Chinaalsoplanstomeet11.4%ofitsprimaryenergyrequirementsfromnon-fossilsourcesby2015.Theplanwillalsopilottheconstructionofanumberoflow-carbonDevelopmentZonesandlow-carbonresidentialcommunities,whichithopeswillresultinaclustereffectamongbusinessesandconsumers.

ChinaContributionstoReductionsinChina'sCarbonIntensity

ChinaDifferentScenariosforCarbonIntensityinChinainthe12thFYP

ChinaThenew12thFYPincludesatargetforthenon-fossilshareofenergyconsumptionof11.4%by2015and15%by2020.

Thesetargetsareclearlyambitiousgiventhehistoricaltrends;itmeansthatChinamustincreaseitsannualrateofconversiontonon-fossilenergysourcesby0.6%duringthe12thFYPand0.7%duringthe13thFYP.Theseratesaremorethantwicetherateofconversionachievedduringthe11thFYPperiodthatrecentlyconcluded.ShareofNon-FossilFuelEnergySupplyinChina

ChinaTheuseofwind,hydro,nuclearandothernon-fossilfuelenergyresourceshasrecentlygrownveryquicklyinChina.China’swindpowercapacityalreadyranksfirst.Still,majorobstaclesstandinthewayoflarge-scaledevelopmentofnon-fossilenergy.WindPowerCapacityinChinaChinaAustraliacallsChinaGlobalLeaderinClimateChangeFight(2013.4.29)Anewreportby

Australia’sClimateCommission

saysthatChinaisoneoftheworld’sbrightspotsinglobalactiontocurbtheeffectsofclimatechange.ThoughChinaremainstheworld’sbiggestgreenhousegasemitter,thereport,

TheCriticalDecade:globalactionbuildingonclimatechange,

foundthatin2012Chinareducedthecarbonintensityofitseconomymorethanexpectedandalmosthalvedtherateofgrowthforelectricitydemand.ChinaGrowthinChina’scarbonemissionshashalved(2014.3.24)China’scoalconsumptiongrewjust2.6%lastyear,to3.61billiontones,Thatcomparedwithcoalconsumptiongrowthof6.4%in2012,accordingtoBPdata,andacompoundaverageannualgrowthrateincoalconsumptionof8.8%from2000-2012.NewCarbonTaxSchemeCO2reductioneffectofthetaxFeed-inTariffforRenewableEnergyPurchasepriceandperiodunderFITCategory,rateandtheperiodofFITCumulativeRECapacityunderFITEFFECTJapan'sSoftbankCorporationisaimingtobethecountry'slargestsolarpowerfirm,withplanstoopensevenlargesolarplantsthroughoutthecountry,producingacombined256.5megawatts.NipponTelegraphandTelephoneCorp.(NTT)hasinvested15billionyentobuildsolarplantsi