策略性的思考课件

StrategicThinking

策略性的思考ManagerialEconomics1ZhigangTaoStrategicThinking

策略性的思考ManagPrisoner’sDilemma

囚徒的困境CokeversusPepsi可口可乐对百事可乐CompetitioninHongKongbankingindustry香港银行业的竞争

ManagerialEconomics2ZhigangTaoPrisoner’sDilemma

囚徒的困境CokeToleadorNottoLead?

先下手为强?TheU.K.CreditCardIndustry

英国信用卡行业Boeingv.Airbus 波音对空中客车ManagerialEconomics3ZhigangTaoToleadorNottoLead?

先下手为强?我自巍然不动

HereIStandManagerialEconomics4ZhigangTao我自巍然不动

HereIStandManagerialManagerialEconomics5ZhigangTaoManagerialEconomics5ZhigangTHowtoincreaseyourbargainingpower?

各个击破UAWagainstFord,GM,andChrysler美国汽车工会对抗福特、通用和克莱斯勒Evicttenantsinrent-controlledapartments 如何赶走租金管制大楼的所有租客Monopolyisnice,butmonopolyplusshortageistwiceasgood 通过垄断能提高你的讨价还价能力,垄断再加上短缺就更好了

ManagerialEconomics6ZhigangTaoHowtoincreaseyourbargaininStrategicSituations

需要策略性思考的情景partiesactivelyconsidertheinteractionswithoneanotherinmakingdecisions一方做决策时会主动将另一方的反应纳入考虑gametheory--setofideasandprinciplestoguidestrategicthinking

博弈论—指导策略性思考的一套理念和原理equilibriumconcepts均衡的概念representativegames典型的博弈ManagerialEconomics7ZhigangTaoStrategicSituations

需要策略性思考的JohnNash

美丽心灵ManagerialEconomics8ZhigangTaoJohnNash

美丽心灵ManagerialEconoNashEquilibrium

纳什均衡GiventhattheotherplayerschoosetheirNashequilibriumstrategies,eachpartyprefersitsownNashequilibriumstrategy每一方在其他的对手选择他们的纳什均衡策略时,也会选择自己的纳什均衡策略Optimality

优化Stability

稳定ManagerialEconomics9ZhigangTaoNashEquilibrium

纳什均衡GiventhaSeeingThroughYourRival’sStrategy洞察对手的策略“AllthatIhavetosayhasalreadycrossedyourmind,”saidHolmes.

“我想要问的你已经都知道了”Holmes说.“Thenpossiblymyanswerhascrossedyours,”Watsonreplied.“那么我的回答你也知道”Watson道.ManagerialEconomics10ZhigangTaoSeeingThroughYourRival’sStNoNashequilibriuminpurestrategies不存在纯策略的纳什均衡

Wheretoadvertise?

在哪儿作宣传?ManagerialEconomics11ZhigangTaoNoNashequilibriuminpuresRandomizedStrategies

随机策略chooseamongpurestrategiesaccordingtoprobabilities

根据概率在纯策略中作出选择mustbeunpredictable

必须是不可预测的IRSauditing(IRS审计)penaltyshoots(罚十二码球)retailpricediscounts(零售价格折扣)ManagerialEconomics12ZhigangTaoRandomizedStrategies

随机策略chooCompetitiveDilemma

竞争的两难Pepsi百事

Raiseprice提价

Discount打折

Coke可口

Raiseprice提价

C:3,P:3

C:0,P:5

Discount打折

C:5,P:0

C:1,P:1

ManagerialEconomics13ZhigangTaoCompetitiveDilemma

竞争的两难Pepsi

June1998:SaudiOilMinisterNaimi,“Idon’tthinkanybodyexpects100%compliance…Oncethepricegoesup,therewillbecheating” March1999:AlgerianOilMinisterYoucefYousfi,“OPECisstillabletoactcollectivelyandrestoremarketstability”

1998年六月,沙特石油部长Naimi说:“我不认为人们会100%的遵守…一旦价格上涨,就会有欺骗”1999年三月:阿尔及利亚石油部长YoucefYousfi说:“欧佩克仍然能够一致行动保持市场的稳定”OPEC:OilCartel

石油卡特尔ManagerialEconomics14ZhigangTaoJune1998:SaudiOilMinistDifficultiesinDetectingCheaters

难于找出作弊者Uncertaintyinmarketdemand市场需求的不确定性Multi-dimensionalinteractions

多维的竞争Hardertoidentifythecheaterthantodetectcheating 找出作弊者比发现作弊事件更难ManagerialEconomics15ZhigangTaoDifficultiesinDetectingCheaCurrentGainv.FutureLoss

眼前利益和长远利益Onlyinanongoingrelationshipisthereanabilitytopunish,andthusasticktomotivate.唯有在持续的关系中，才能保持惩罚的能力；惩罚能力反过来会维持良好的合作关系Problemwithfiniteperiodsoffuturetransactions未来交易期限的问题ManagerialEconomics16ZhigangTaoCurrentGainv.FutureLoss

眼前SequentialGames

先后下手的游戏secondmoveradvantage

后发制人firstmoveradvantage

先下手为强ManagerialEconomics17ZhigangTaoSequentialGames

先后下手的游戏seconPricingforProfit

如何定价才能获利TheU.K.CreditCardIndustryintheLate1980s(A)-(D)80年代末的英国信用卡行业ManagerialEconomics18ZhigangTaoPricingforProfit

如何定价才能获利TheMainPlayersintheUKCreditCardIndustry

英国信用卡行业的主要参与者Cardholders,merchants,merchantacquirers,issuingbanks,andcardassociations 持卡人,商家,信用卡中间业务处理商,发卡银行和信用卡组织Merchantacquirerscollectamerchantservicecharge(MSC)fortheissuingbanks;inreturntheyreceiveadomesticinterchangefee(DIF)fromtheissuingbanks. 信用卡中间业务处理商为发卡银行收取商业服务费;相应地,他们从发卡银行那里得到国内交换费用ManagerialEconomics19ZhigangTaoMainPlayersintheUKCreditCardsinCirculation:1988

信用卡持有量:1988年VisaBanksBankofScotland(1,030thousands),Barclays(8,680),TSB(3,118),andothers(1,292)AccessBanksLloyds(2,800),Midland(2,820),NatWest(3,797),RBS(822),andothers(269)ManagerialEconomics20ZhigangTaoCardsinCirculation:1988

信用卡TransactionVolume:1988

交易量:1988年VisaBanks:BankofScotland(604millionpounds),Barclays(6,958),TSB(1,366),andothers(664)AccessBanks:Lloyds(2,301),Midland(2,147),NatWest(2,961),RBS(573),andothers(237)ManagerialEconomics21ZhigangTaoTransactionVolume:1988

交易量:CrisisintheUKCreditCardIndustry

英国信用卡行业的危机Hugelyprofitableinthemid1980s:frominterestchargedtocardholdersonunpaidbalancesandfeespaidbyretailers在80年代中期利润丰厚，收入来自未付帐款的利息和零售商的付费injeopardybyearlyspringof19891989年春岌岌可危ManagerialEconomics22ZhigangTaoCrisisintheUKCreditCardICausesoftheChanges

改变的原因Manyofthesmallerbankswerebeginningtoenterthecreditcardbusiness,andasaresultthefeespaidbyretailersweredropping.Ontheotherhand,thecostofmoneywasincreasing.Finally,theproportionofoutstandingbalancessubjecttointerestwasdecreasing,from41.5%in1984to34.0%in1988(36.9%forLloydsin1988v.31.8%forBarclays).

许多较小的银行开始进入信用卡领域,零售商的付费随之减少。同时，货币成本增加。未付帐款的比例缩减：从1984年41.5%到1988年的34.0%(Lloyds36.9%而Barclays

31.8%).ManagerialEconomics23ZhigangTaoCausesoftheChanges

改变的原因ManLeaderorFollower?

先发还是后制?Inearly1989,Barclaysannounceditwasconsideringtheintroductionofaflatfeeforitscreditcards 1989年初，Barclays宣布它正在考虑收取信用卡年费In8/89’,Lloydsannouncedthat,startingFebruary1,1990,itwouldchargeafeeof12poundsandreducedinterestratefrom29.8%APR(annualpercentagerate)to26.8%APR.Barclays’response:“Wehavenoplanstointroduceanannualfeeatthisstagethoughwehavebeenthinkingaboutit.” 89年8月，Lloyds宣布自90年2月1日起收取12英镑的年费，并降低利息，从29.8%的年利率降至26.8%。Barclays的反应是：我们还在考虑.ManagerialEconomics24ZhigangTaoLeaderorFollower?

先发还是后制?InCompetitioninMarketShare

抢占市场份额Lloydswasestimatedtohavelost375,000ofits3millioncreditcardcustomersbyFebruary1,1990,and600,000byMarch1990.

至1990年2月1日,Lloyds失去了37.5万个客户，至1990年3月失去60万个客户InApril,Barclaysannouncedanannualfeeof8poundsstartingJune.Itreportedlossof500,000customersbyOctober1990.1990年4月,Barclays宣布从6月起仅收8英镑的年费.至1990年10月失去50万个客户.ManagerialEconomics25ZhigangTaoCompetitioninMarketShare

抢占PlayoftheGame

整个过程2/89’:Barclayssignalsinterestinfeesasaconcept89年2月：Barclays发出信号表示考虑收取年费8/89’:Lloydsverbalannouncement,Barclayshedgedresponse89年8月Lloyds口头宣布，Barclays未做出正面回答12/89’:Lloydscommitstofeebymail,effectiveFebruary1,199089年12月：Lloyds通过邮件宣布收取年费，自90年2月1日起生效1/90’:Lloydsquiet90年1曰：Lloyds无任何举措2/90’:Lloydsannounceslostcardholders,saysthattheyaremostlynot-profitablecustomers90年2月：Lloyds宣布失去客户，但称他们大多为不盈利的客户4/90’:BarclaysrespondswithJunecommitment90年4月：Barclays宣布自六月开始收取年费9/90’:Midlandresponse90年9月：Midland做出反应8/91’:NatWestresponse91年8月：NatWest做出反应ManagerialEconomics26ZhigangTaoPlayoftheGame

整个过程2/89’:BaCreditCardPricing,October1992

1992年10月信用卡定价AnnualFee年费APR年利率Rate月利率Bank银行名称none27.6%2.05%TSB12pounds25.3%1.90%Midland12pounds23.9%1.80%Lloyds10pounds23.7%1.79%BarclaysSource:FinancialTimesManagerialEconomics27ZhigangTaoCreditCardPricing,October1HowtoMilktheCreditCardUsers

如何从信用卡使用者那里获利Twokindsofbenefit:creditlendingtocardholders,andcashlesstransactionsforcardholders两类收益：持卡人信贷与非现金交易Twotypesofusers:“creditusers”whopayinterestsonoutstandingbalancesand“freeriders”(orfull-payers)whopaybalancesontime两类使用者：“赊帐用户”（他们将支付未结清款项的利息）和“搭便车的人”（他们准时结清款项）Twoinstruments:interestratesandannualfees两种工具：利息与年费Charginganannualfeepushesthe“freeriders”topay,butitdetersthe“creditusers”.收取年费可以迫使“搭便车的人”出钱，但同时会导致损失一些“赊帐用户”。ManagerialEconomics28ZhigangTaoHowtoMilktheCreditCardUsAssumingthatthefull-payersarenotprofitable.

假设从“搭便车的人”那里是不获利的Bad,BadGreat,OKfollow

Lloyds

OK,GreatGood,Goodlead

followleadBarclays

ManagerialEconomics29ZhigangTaoAssumingthatthefull-payersAssumingthatthefull-payersareprofitable.

假设从“搭便车的人”那里是可以获利的Barclays

leadfollowLloyds

lead

Good,GoodReallybad,Greatfollow

Great,ReallybadBad,BadManagerialEconomics30ZhigangTaoAssumingthatthefull-payersClose

结语Industrystructurehadchanged,profitabilitywasdropping:gameneededtobechangedi.e.chargeafee.行业结构发生改变，盈利性降低，需开源收取年费Feesmayberisky(lostcustomers),plusfeesmaynotbeoptimal(inefficientpricingmechanism)收取年费有风险（失去客户），增加年费也许并不是最优的选择（定价机制效率低）Inthisinteractivesituation,wanttobefollower.在这种互动的情势下，谁都希望能成为跟随者Butnoleadingmaymeanthatindustrypricingneverchanges但若没有“先吃螃蟹的人”，行业定价也许永远不会改变ManagerialEconomics31ZhigangTaoClose

结语IndustrystructurehadCommercialAircraft

民用飞机Economiesofscaleandscope规模经济及范围经济Ittakesatleast12yearsand$15billiontotakeanewairlinerfromdrawingboardtotestflight.Eachdoublingofproductionisreckonedtocutafifthoffthecost.Technologycanbespreadacrossafamilyofproducts.一种新型的客机开发,从构想到试飞至少需要投入150亿美元花费12年的时间.产量每增加一倍,其平均生产成本就可以降低五分之一.不同产品类型之间还可以技术共享.Highindustryconcentration高度产业集中化BoeingandAirbus波音和空中客车ManagerialEconomics32ZhigangTaoCommercialAircraft

民用飞机EconomBoeing

波音公司FromB17sandB29sofWWIItoB52softheColdWar;spilloverfromdefensebusinesstocommercialaircraft

从二战时期的B17和B29系列到冷战时期的B52系列;从国防军用机拓展到民用飞机Threetimesinitshistory,Boeingsuccessfullybettedonhighlyinnovativejetdesigns:firsttrans-Atlanticjet707,firstjumbojet747,andfirstultra-long-haultwinengine777,在其发展史中,波音公司曾经三次明智地将赌注放在极富创新意识的喷气式飞机设计上:第一架飞越大西洋的民用喷气机707,第一架大型喷气式客机747,以及第一架超远程双发喷气机777ManagerialEconomics33ZhigangTaoBoeing

波音公司FromB17sandB29sAirbus

空中客车Foundedin1970asaconsortiumofGerman,French,Spanish&Britishpartners,andheavilysubsidizedbythegovernments由德国,法国,西班牙及英国的合伙人于1970年联合组建,政府提供了大量资助fly-by-wire&acommoncockpitdesign

电控飞行操作与相似的控制板面设计2001:AirbusIntegratedcompany,owned80%byEADSand20%byBAESystems

2001年：欧洲航空防务与航天公司（EADS）和英国航空航天动力系统公司（BAESystems）分别拥有空中客车联合公司80%和20%的股份

ManagerialEconomics34ZhigangTaoAirbus

空中客车Foundedin1970asBattleFronts

争议焦点TheAmericansbattleagainsttheeconomicheresyofsubsidizedcompetition.美国人抗议欧洲政府资助公司竞争这种非经济行为TheEuropeansbattleagainstAmericanhegemonyinastrategicindustryandindirectsubsidyfromtheAmericandefensebudget.欧洲人则抗议美国在一些有战略意义的产业中的霸权行为,以及美国政府通过国防预算给予的间接资助ManagerialEconomics35ZhigangTaoBattleFronts

争议焦点TheAmericanBoeingandMDMerger1997

1997年波音与麦道的合并

TheEUcompetitioncommissionertriedtoblockthedealforthreereasons:欧盟反垄断专员因为以下三个原因而试图阻止这项合并：Boeing’scivilbusinessmightenjoydefense“spillover”fromMD.波音的民用客机业可以从麦道的国防军用业中受益Thenewfirmwouldhave70%marketshareoflargeairliners.新的公司将拥有大型客机市场70%的份额Boeingstruckexclusive20-yearcontractswithDelta,ContinentalandAmericanAirlines.波音与达美航空,大陆航空及美洲航空公司签订了长达20年的专营合同ManagerialEconomics36ZhigangTaoBoeingandMDMerger1997

19972001:AirbuslaunchedA380

空中客车推出A380ManagerialEconomics37ZhigangTao2001:AirbuslaunchedA380

空中客Boeing’sCounter-Strategies

波音的应对策略ChallengeAirbus’launchaidbyfilingacomplaintwiththeWTO/butoffendmajorcustomers向WTO抗议空中客车所享有的开发资助/但是这样会得罪一些主要客户Boeing’sownproblems:subsidiesfromitsmilitarycontracts&useofforeignsalescorporation波音自身也存在问题:从军用机合同中获得资助,以及设立国外销售机构Finally,amodifiedversionof747:747X或者,制造747的延伸版:747XManagerialEconomics38ZhigangTaoBoeing’sCounter-Strategies

波音SonicCruiser

音速巡航者3/29/2001:Boeingscrapeditsplanfor747X,andintroducedsoniccruiserinstead2001年3月29日,波音公司放弃747X系列的计划,转而开发音速巡航者$9billiontodevelop,175-250passengers,flyhigher,quieterandfaster投入90亿美元用于研发这种载客量为175-250人,飞行得更高、更静、更快的客机Boeingstockincreased1.7%,andEADSjumpedby3.9%波音公司和EADS的股票分别上涨1.7%和3.9%ManagerialEconomics39ZhigangTaoSonicCruiser

音速巡航者3/29/2001:ManagerialEconomics40ZhigangTaoManagerialEconomics40ZhigangAnotherflopinstrategy

又一次失败的决策Endof2002:Boeingdumpeditsplanstomakesoniccruiser,sayingthatinthecurrenteconomy,businesstravelersarenolongerwillingtoplayapremiumfortheconvenienceofspeed2002年底,波音停止了音速巡航者计划,理由是在当前经济环境下,商务旅行的乘客不愿意为这种快速所带来的便利而额外支付一笔费用Newplantohave747E,whichwouldbringtogetheradvancedmaterials,thelatestmanufacturingmethodsandthenewestelectronicsinajetlinermoreefficientthananyinthesky波音747E新机型:这种新式喷气客机将选用先进的材料,采取最新的制造工艺,并结合新开发的电子产品,它将比以往的任何一种飞机都更高效.ManagerialEconomics41ZhigangTaoAnotherflopinstrategy

又一次失败Will747Eevergetbuilt?

747E机型能否最终推出?

Achoicebetweenspendingboldlytodevelopanewjetandhunkeringdowntoplaydefense冒险开发新式的喷气客机还是继续发展国防军用机?BeforetheMDmerger,Boeingrepliedoncommercialaviationformorethan80%ofitsrevenue;in2002,thefigurewas52.5%.Meanwhile,BoeinghasgonefromarelativelyinsignificantmilitarycontractortotheU.S.secondlargest.在与麦道合并之前,波音公司80%以上的收入都来自民用航空业;而2002年,这一比例降到52.5%.同时,在军用机制造业内,波音则从原来不太显眼的地位一跃成为美国第二大.ManagerialEconomics42ZhigangTaoWill747Eevergetbuilt?

747ENutraSweetabrandnameproductofaspartamebyMonsanto,licensedproductionbyAjinomoto,and$711millionbusinessNutraSweet是Monsanto拥有的糖精名牌产品,由Ajinomoto进行许可证生产,是7.11亿美元的生意advertisingdirectedatend-usersandcooperativeadvertisingwithmanufacturers(upto40%discount)直接针对最终用户作广告,并以高达40%折扣价优惠鼓励制造商合作作广告largeMES(2,000tons),and$100mofplantconstructioncosts最低有效生产规模达2000吨(占总需求的三分之一),工厂建设成本高达1亿美元ManagerialEconomics43ZhigangTaoNutraSweetabrandnameproductMonsanto生产基地ManagerialEconomics44ZhigangTaoMonsanto生产基地ManagerialEconomDemandbyFinalProducts

哪些产品需要糖精？Dietcokedrinks(80%)健宜可乐饮料Tabletopmarket(15%)餐桌零用市场Others(5%)其它ManagerialEconomics45ZhigangTaoDemandbyFinalProducts

哪些产DemandbyGeographicDistribution

需求地区分布ManagerialEconomics46ZhigangTaoDemandbyGeographicDistribut

TwoBigBuyers

两大买家Coca-ColaandPepsi-Colaaccountedfor60%ofshipmentsintheUSsoftdrinkindustry可口可乐和百事可乐占到了美国软饮料总销量的60%ManagerialEconomics47ZhigangTaoTwoBigBuyers

两大买家Coca-CoTooSweetTobeTrue

真的,就太爽了impendingpatentexpiration专利即将到期87’forEuropeandCanada对欧洲和加拿大是87年end92’forUS对美国是92年底entrydecision(500tons)inlate86’byHSCintheEuropeanandCanadianmarkets在86年后期：HSC建立了年产500吨的设备，准备进入欧洲和加拿大的市场。normalcompetitionorpricewar?Monsanto应该如何应对HSC:正常的竞争还是价格战?ManagerialEconomics48ZhigangTaoTooSweetTobeTrue

真的,就太爽了imWillNutraSweetfightHSCinEurope/Canada?

NutraSweet会在欧洲/加拿大迎战HSC吗?deeppockets资金雄厚signaltootherentrants,wrtUSmarket,andwrtsubstitutes对于窥视美国市场的厂商及替代品开发商发出信号denyHSCscale/learning剥夺HSC规模经济及学习机会Substitutesalongwayoff替代品遥遥无期DSM/TosohhavedeeppocketsDSM/Tosoh也有钱signalingnotcredible信号不可信NutraSweetbrand/costadvantagesNutraSweet品牌/成本优势complexity/processpatents生产复杂/程序专利MES=1/3market最低有效规模达整个市场的1/3HSCsmallHSC较小ManagerialEconomics49ZhigangTaoWillNutraSweetfightHSCinEBloodyCompetition

Monsanto火并HSCEuropeanMarket欧洲市场First100%andthen50%exclusivecontractswithCokeandPepsi与可口和百事签定专营合同（最初100％，后降为50％）pricedroppedto$22-30perpound价格跌到每磅22-30美元CanadianMarket加拿大市场exclusivecontractswithCokeandPepsiwith“meet-or-release”and“most-favored-nation”clauses与可口和百事签定专营合同,附带“再给一个机会”与“最惠国”条款pricedroppedto$40-50perpound

价格跌到每磅40-50美元ManagerialEconomics50ZhigangTaoBloodyCompetition

Monsanto火并LegalchallengesbyHSC?

HSC是否采取法律行动?HSCargumentsHSC的指控predatorypricing侵略性定价leveragingmarketpower利用市场力量压制新兴企业MORclauses---stickycustomers“再给一个机会”条款导致顾客不换厂商MFNclauses---“最惠国”条款导致每个顾客依赖别的顾客与厂商讨价还价NutraSweetcounter-argumentsNutraSweet的反驳lowpricesindicatecompetition低价是由竞争造成Buyerschooseexclusivityetc.专营合同能否履行最终依据顾客选择long-termcontractsandMOR/MFNclausesofferinsurance长期合同和附带条款为顾客和厂商提供保险ManagerialEconomics51ZhigangTaoLegalchallengesbyHSC?

HSC是否HSCWinningLegalBattles

HSC赢得了官司Europeanmarket欧洲市场anti-dumpingdutiesof$15perpoundonNutraSweet对NutraSweet征收每磅15美元的反倾销税

Canadianmarket加拿大市场nocontractswithexclusivetermsordiscountsinducingthedisplayoftrademark/logo禁止专营合同,或通过折扣诱逼购买者出示NutraSweet的商标MORandMFNofferedtoallcustomersornone特别(“再给一次机会”和“最惠国”)条款，要对所有客户一视同仁。ManagerialEconomics52ZhigangTaoHSCWinningLegalBattles

HSC赢WhatshouldNutraSweetdo?

NutraSweet该如何应对？Lowprice低价XExclusivecontracts专营合同XPre-emptivecapacityexpansion?先发制人，扩大生产规模？Europe：avoidduties,marketgrowth,andpreemptsHSConhomeground欧洲：避税，市场发展迅速，在HSC家门口抢占先机USA:thelargestmarket,andsplittheglobewithHSC美国：市场最大，并向HSC发出信号，将与之分踞市场ManagerialEconomics53ZhigangTaoWhatshouldNutraSweetdo?

NuCapacityExpansion

扩大生产能力3,000tonsforAugustaplant(late89’)Augusta工厂3000吨(89年后期)2,000tonsinFrance(9/91’)法国2000吨(91年9月)ManagerialEconomics54ZhigangTaoCapacityExpansion

扩大生产能力3,000CompetitiontoStay

竞争常在In1/92,HSCplanedtoincreaseitscapacityfrom500to2,000tons在92年元月,HSC计划将生产能力由500吨增加到2000吨“Everymanufacturerlikestohaveatleasttwosourcesofsupply.”“每个制造商都希望有至少两个供应商.”“WearelookingforwardtomovingthewarintotheUS.”“我们期待打响进入美国市场的战役”ManagerialEconomics55ZhigangTaoCompetitiontoStay

竞争常在In1/9Union劳方Employer资方rejectunionDemand拒绝工会的要求Accept接受donot不罢工

Strike罢工Losecurrentwageandpossiblygaininfuturewage损失目前工资，但未来工资可能会增加MaintaincurrentWage维持现有工资Strike

罢工ManagerialEconomics56ZhigangTaoUnionEmployerrejectunionAcceTheAcquisitionofConrail

CSX收购ConrailCSXandConrail,the1stand3rdlargestrailroadsintheEasternUnitedStates,announcedan$8.3billionmergeron10/16/96,withitsnewheadquarterslocatedatPhiladelphiaandtobemanagedbyConrail’sCEOintwoyears.

CSX和Conrail是美国东部第一和第三大的铁路公司,在96年10月16日宣布以83亿美元价值合并.新总部设在费城,两年后新公司将由Conrail总裁管理ManagerialEconomics57ZhigangTaoTheAcquisitionofConrail

CSXTheFirst-TierOffer

第一阶段收购CSXwouldfirstbuy19.7%ofConrail’ssharesat$92.5pershareandanadditional20.3%atthesamepriceonlyafterConrailshareholdersapprovethedealunderPennsylvanialaw(the“fairvalue”statuteand“votingrights”statute)

CSX先以92.5美元的价格购买(Conrail)19.7%的股份；一旦Conrail股东根据宾州的法律批准这项交易后，CSX会以相同的价格收购另外20.3%的股份ManagerialEconomics58ZhigangTaoTheFirst-TierOffer

第一阶段收购CSXTheSecond-TierOffer

第二阶段收购CSXwouldexchangesharesintheratioof1.85619:1.0(CSX:Conrail)fortheremaining60%shares.BasedonCSX’sstockpriceof$46.75,thesharepricefortheback-endofferwouldbe$89.07

CSX会以1.85619:1.0的比例交换剩余的60%Conrail股份.基于CSX的46.75美元的股价,后端收购股价是89.07美元.ManagerialEconomics59ZhigangTaoTheSecond-TierOffer

第二阶段收购CSProvisionsintheAgreement

协议中的条款A“breakup”feeof$300million3亿美元的分手费CSXgrantedthe“lockup”optiontopurchase15.96millionnewlyissuedcommonsharesat$92.5pershareCSX享有“锁死”期权,可以以每股92.5美元的价格来购买Conrail新发行的1596万普通股.Conrail’s“poisonpill”suspended联铁的毒药计划暂停“Onotalk”clauseforsixmonths6个月内Conrail不许与其他公司谈恋爱ManagerialEconomics60ZhigangTaoProvisionsintheAgreement

协议QuestionsfortheConrailCase

联铁案的问题WhydidCSXmakeatwo-tieredoffer?AsaConrailshareholder,wouldyoutenderyoursharestoCSXat$92.50inthefirst-stageoffer?Whataretheeconomicrationalesforandthetakeoverimplicationsofthevariousprovisionsinthemergeragreement?CSX为什么采用两阶段收购?作为Conrail的股东，您会否在第一收购阶段以$92.50的价格把股票卖给CSX?如何理解收购协议里的多种条款?ManagerialEconomics61ZhigangTaoQuestionsfortheConrailCaseSallyWilliamsWilliamsFirst-tiercashoffer现金收购Doesn’tbid不收购Doesnot不出售

WilliamsgetsControl取得控制Accepts出售股票Williams

$17.5HoldsshareFails失败WilliamsgetscontrolFails$15Holdsshare持股Two-TierTakeoverBid

两阶段收购计划ManagerialEconomics62ZhigangTaoSallyWilliamsWilliamsFirst-tieSharonHildaacquires100,000Shares购买10万股doesn’tbid没有doesnot

activatesrights毒药计划启动

Hildalosesoninitialstake+costoftakeoverrisesHilda原先投资受损＋收购成本上升PoisonPill

毒药计划ManagerialEconomics63ZhigangTaoSharonHildaacquires100,000doeEstablishingCreditableCommitments

建立可信的承诺Changethepayoffsofthegame

改变博弈的支付Changethegametolimityourabilitytobackoutofacommitment

改变博弈,限制你反悔承诺的能力Useotherstohelpyoumaintaincommitment利用其它方式帮助你信守承诺ManagerialEconomics64ZhigangTaoEstablishingCreditableCommitReputation声誉ManagerialEconomics65ZhigangTaoReputation声誉ManagerialEconomWhatreputation

声誉ColonelGhadafiandAyatollahKhomeini 卡扎菲和霍梅尼NorthKorea

北朝鲜LiKa-Shing---Nonegotiationwithhostagetakers李嘉诚—不与绑架者谈判ManagerialEconomics66ZhigangTaoWhatreputation

声誉ColonelGhaContracts

合同$25,000dietplanbyNickRusso

NickRusso的两万五千美元的减肥计划DrugrehabilitationcenteratDenver

丹佛的戒毒所Renegotiation-proofcontracts

无法再协议的合同ManagerialEconomics67ZhigangTaoContracts

合同$25,000dietplanCuttingoffcommunication

隔断交流AmericanMovie:“Bachelor”美国电影“单身汉”Battlesofsexes听谁的？ManagerialEconomics68ZhigangTaoCuttingoffcommunication

隔断交BurningBridgesBehindYou

破釜沉舟“PutallyoureggsinonebasketandWATCHTHATBASKET.”“把所有的鸡蛋放到一个篮子里,看护好这只篮子.”Polaroidv.EastmanKodak:“Thisisourwholelife.”宝丽来反击柯达ManagerialEconomics69ZhigangTaoBurningBridgesBehindYou

破釜沉LeavingtheOutcomebeyondYourControl听天由命AutomatictriggerinDr.Strangelove在Dr.Strangelove影片中的自动扳机brinkmanship:SovietrocketswouldflyautomaticallyintheeventofarmedconflictinBerlin(Khrushchev)

外交冒险政策:一旦柏林发生武装冲突,苏联的火箭就会自动发射ManagerialEconomics70ZhigangTaoLeavingtheOutcomebeyondYouMovinginSteps

化整为零Startsmallinrelationships

慢慢建立关系installmentspaymentinconstructionandcustomsoftwaredesign

建筑施工和量身定制软件设计中的分期付款ManagerialEconomics71ZhigangTaoMovinginSteps

化整为零StartsmalTeamwork

团队精神Groupawards/punishments集体获奖/受罚Lendingindevelopingcountries“株连九族”

ManagerialEc