作文-awa模板由事实得出结论

Inthisargument,theauthorreachestheconclusion Severalreasonsareofferedsupportofthisargument.Firstofall,theauthorcitesthefact What’smoreauthorpointsoutthat...............Atfirstglance,theauthor’sargumentappearstobesomewhatconvincing,butfurtherreflectionrevealsthattheconclusionisbasedonsomedubiousassumptionsandthereasoningisbiasedduetotheinadequacyandpartialityinthenatureofevidenceprovidedtojustifytheconclusion.Acarefulexaminationwouldreviewhowgroundlessthisconclusionis.Thethresholdproblemwiththisargumentistheauthor’sunfairlyassumptionMoreover,relieson/restsongratuitousassumptionLastbutnotleast,argumentfalselyinfers小范围推大范围样本不足（A中A1发 关于A结论theevidencethattheauthorprovidesisinsufficienttosupporttheconclusiondrawnfromit.Oneexampleisrarelysufficienttoestablishageneralconclusion.UnlesstheauthorcanshowthatA1isrepresentativeofallA,theconclusionthatB…iscompleyunwarranted.Infact,infaceofsuchlimitedevidence,itisfallacioustodrawanyconclusionatall.however,amererecentone-yearAisinsufficienttoclaimthat().Statisticsfromsuchlimitedanecdotalevidenceisnotagoodindicatorforthistrend.MisappliedGeneralization（大范围推小范围）(AAA1结论Theauthor’sconclusion/predictionreliesonthegratuitousassumptionthat大范围appliesspecificallyto小范围.Thereis,however,noguaranteethatthisisthecase,nordoestheauthorprovideanyevidencetosubstantiatethisassumption.Justaslikely,小范围….(isjustintheoppositedirection).Inthatcase,theauthor’s mendationmightamounttoespeciallypooradvice.HastyGeneralization（A发生结论Themostconspicuous（显著的，显而易见的）reasoningerrorinthisargumentistheauthor’sunderlying/gratuitous（无理由的，无端的）assumptionthatAisrepresentativeofB,ingeneral.However,itisnotnecessarilythecase.TheremaybemanydissimilaritiesbetweenAandB.Forexample,perhaps…SounlessitcanbeshownthatwhatistrueofAwillbelikewisetrueofmostother…,theconclusionthat…isfairlyunwarranted/highly /entirelyunfounded.Theauthorfalselyrestsonthegratuitousassumptionthat（）.However,noevidenceisstatedintheargumenttosupportthisassumption(forthereasonthatthereisnoevidencegiventosubstantiatetheclaim).Infact,thisisnotnecessarilythecase.Itisentirelypossiblethat().Therefore,thisargumentisunwarrantedwithoutrulingoutsuchpossibility. ogy（AB无法比较theargumenthasalsocommittedafalse ogyfallacy.TheargumentrestsontheassumptionthatAis ogoustoBinallrespectsandfailingtotakeintoaccountthepossibledifferencesbetweenthesetwo. Infact,itishighlydoubtfulthatthefactsdrawnfromBareapplicabletoA.DifferencesbetweenAandBclearlyoutweightthesimilarities,thusmakingtheogyhighlylessthanvalid.Forexample,…allaffectsAbutarevirtuallyabsentinB (Ahowever Therefore,withoutprovidingsufficientinformationshowingthatmostorevenallofconditionsinA&Bissimilarorthesame,theauthorcannotconvinceme whichisinA sobeefficientinBasAllthingsareequal时地全等AB在不同时间、地点(可能为同一物体TheargumentunfairlyinfersthatXwouldremainunchangedover/since…(oratdifferent fromX发生inthepastthatXthisyearwouldmustbe…However,thefactthathappened( yearsago)isnotasoundevidencetodrawaconclusionthat()intheabsenceofevidencetosupportthisinference.Inaddition,itispossiblethatthistrendwillfluctuateorevenreverseinthefutureforwhateverreason(,whiighthaveanegativeimpactonCand,inturns,D).Admittedly,thisargumentwouldbeevenweakerandweakereachdayastimegoesby.CorrelationtoCausation（ABtheauthorunfairlyassumsthatBisduetoA(justbecauseBhappenedafterA时序因果（B发生在A后面不代表A导致B）).However,thereisnosufficientevidencewhichcansubstantiatetheassumptionthatthereisacause-and-effectrelationshipbetweenAandB.TheauthoroverlooksthepossibilityofotheralternativefactsthatmightcontributeacertainextenttoB.Solackingevidencetoconfirmthisassumption,itisentirelypossiblethat..........Itisequallypossiblethat..................Moreover,perhaps Inshort,withoutconsideringandrulingoutalloftheseandotherpossibilities,thecredibilityoftheauthor’sconclusionisreallyopentodoubtforthereasonthateachofthepossibilities,iftruewouldservetounderminetheauthor’sconclusion.因果倒置：itispossiblethattheauthorconfusescausewitheffectrespectingBPerhapsAwasaresponsetoB.Sincetheauthormayfailstoaccountforthispossibility.TheclaimiscompleyCasualOversimplification充分必要性（因素A不一定会导致某结果B有他因）TheauthorunfairlyassumesthatBdeterminedsolelybyA.WhileAisaseeminglyimportantelementindeterminingB,itishardlytheonlyorevennecessarilyrequiredone.ThisassumptionoverlooksothercrucialcriteriaindeterminingB--suchasC,D,tolistjustafew.Therefore,thisargumentisunwarrantedwithoutrulingoutthosepossibilities.theargumentrestsonagratuitousassumptionthat…(AleadstoB)forthereasonthatthereisnoevidencegiventosubstantiatethi.Themerefactthat()doesnotnecessarilyindicatethat().Itislikelythat…………itisalsolikelythat Therefore,thisargumentisunwarrantedFalseDilemmaTheauthorassumesthatAandBaremutuallyexclusivealternatives.However,theauthorprovidesnoreasonforimposinganeither/orchoice.CommonsenseandobservationlsusthatadjoiningbothAandBmightproducebetterresults.Moreover,iftheauthoriswrongintheassumptionthatAandBaretheonlypossiblecausesoftheproblem,thusthemosteffectivesolutionmightincludeacomplexofotherfactorchanges--suchasCandD,tolistafew.Cost-and-benefitysisFirst,theauthorassumesthat…Thisassumptionfailstotakeintoaccountcostincreasesandinefficiencythatcouldresultfrom….Forinstance,companyrepresentativeswouldhavetotraveltodobusinessinareasformerlyservedbyafieldoffice,creatingtravelcostsandlossofcriticaltime.Inshort,thisassumptionmustbesupportedwithathoroughcost-benefitysisofcentralizationversusotherpossiblecost-cuttingand/orprofit-enhancingstrategies.sidednessTheargumentreliesonanoversimplifiedreasoningthatignoresthedemeritsbroughtbyA.TheauthorassumesthatwithoutsacrificinganyotherInfact,Amayhaveto缺点1，缺点alltooffsetthebenefitsassociatedwith优点.ItmayturnoutthatthedisadvantagesofAweightheadvantages.Lackingadetailedysisofthesituation,theauthor’ cannotbetakenseriously.OnlyTheargumentreliesonanoversimplifiedreasoningthatignoresthebenefitsbroughtbyA.Forexample,…,alltocompensatethecostsassociatedwith缺点.ItmayturnoutthattheadvantagesofAoutweighthedisadvantages.Lackingadetailedysisofthesituation,the cannotbetakenseriously.AppealtoignoranceTheargumentrelieson/restson/turnsontheassumptionthatthe99percentofAviapassengerswhodidnotcomplainwerehappywiththeairline’sbaggage-handlingprocedures.However,theauthorprovidesnoevidencetosupportthisassumption.Thefactthatontheaverage,9outof1000passengerstookthetimeandefforttoformallycomplainindicatesnothingabouttheexperienceorattitudesoftheremaining991.Itispossiblethatmanypassengersweredispleasedbuttoobusytoformallycomplain,whileothershadnoopinionsatall.Lackingmorecompleteinformationaboutpassengers’attitudes,wecannotsimplyassumethatthegreatmajorityofpassengerswhodidnotcomplainwerehappy.theargumentignores/omits(theassumptionthat)theabsoluteamountofretailexpenditureofmiddle-agedandyoungerconsumersdevotedtodepartmentstoreproductsandservices(...is/arethesame).Althoughyoungerconsumersspendasmallerpercentageoftheirretailexpendituretodepartmentstoreproductsthandothemiddle-agedconsumers,theymightactuallyspendmoreintermsoftheabsoluteamount.Besides,theargumentneveraddressesthepopulationdifferencebetweenmiddle-agedconsumersandyoungerones.Supposetherearemoreyoungerconsumersthanthemiddle-agedonesnow,thetotalpopulationbaseofyoungerconsumerswillbebiggerthanthatofthemiddle-agedonesifbothofthemgrowatthesamerateinthenextdecade.Thustherewillbeabiggeryoungerconsumerbase.人总数（Ifthebusinessvolumeofthemiddle-agedconsumers39%issmallerthanthatoftheyoungerconsumers’25theretailsaleswillnotincreaseduringthenextdecade.）SpeciousStatisticsThestatisticsareintendedtosupportthemainclaimthat…Butthesestatisticsarevagueandoversimplified,thusmaydistortthestate’soveralleconomicpicture.Forexample,…Moreover,…Stateworkerspayraisesmayhavebeenminusculeandmaynothavekeptupwithcostoflivingorwithpayforstateworkersinotherstates.Wage+The5000newjobsmayhavebeentoofewtobringstateunemploymentratesdownsignificantly;atthesametime,manyjobsmayhavebeenlost.Newjobs+Thepollindicatesthatsixnewcorporationslocatedinthestate,butfailstoindicateifany问题（承上时：evenassumingthattheresultofthesurveymentionedaboveisstatisticallyreliable）VestedInterest植入作者观Wehavestrongreasonstoquestionthecreditabilityandneutralityofthesurveyinwhichtheconductorhasvestedinterestandthereforeisinclinedtomanipulatethefigures/truthtohisownadvantage.WehavestrongreasonstoquestionthecreditabilityandneutralityoftheremarksmadebyXXX,whohasvestedinterestandthereforeisinclinedtotakethepositiontohisownadvantage.StatisticalEvidenceThesurveymethodologymightbeproblematicin()Loadedquestion和诚实性What’smore,themethodologyofthesurveyisproblematicfortworeasons.Foronething,wearenotinformedwhetherthesurveyprovidedonly(数字)alternatives.Ifitdid,therespondents,whomightverywellpreferanotherchoicenotprovidedinthesurvey,mightbeforcedtogiveuptheirpreferences.Foranotherthing,wearenotinformedwhetherthesurveyresponsewereanonymousoreven.Iftheywerenot,regardlessofwhethertheresponsesweretruthful,therespondentsmightsupply供给responsesfavoredbytheirsuperiorswhomightconductthesurvey.Botheventswouldleadthissurveyunreliable,letaloneaboutdrawingtheconclusionthat().背样本数量Thethresholdproblemwiththisargumentinvolvesthesurveyitself.Thestatisticalreliabilityofthesurveyisreallydubiousforthereasonthattheauthorprovidesnoevidencewhichcanshowthatthenumberof()isstatisticallysignificant.Commonsenselsusthatthesmallerthesizeofthesample,thelessreliabletheresultofthesurveyandthelessreliableanygeneralconclusiondrawnfromthesurvey.Thatistosay,thenumberofparticipant,(数字),mightbejustaninsufficientsmallsampleonwhichcannotbejustifiablyreliedtodrawanyreliableconclusionabout（）.Moreover,apossiblemethodologyprobleminthisargumentisthatofbias.authorprovidesnoevidencetoclaimthatthe（）whorespondedtosurveyquestionnairesisrepresentativeofthewholegeneralgroupof().Perhaps（）whoweremoreinterestedthanothersin（）mightbemorelikelytorespondtothequestionnaire—possiblybecausetheyfoundthequestionnairemoreattractive.Lackingtheinformationabouttherandomnessandrepresentativenessofthesurveysample,theauthorcannotconvincemetobelieveintheresultofthesurvey--letalonedrawanybroader mendationbasedonthesurvey.样本时效性Lastbutnottheleast,itisnecessarytopointoutanotherflawthatsignificantlyunderminesthisargumentthattheauthorneglects忽略toindicatehowrecentlythesurveywasactuallyconducted.Whenusedtogenerallyclaimaparticulargroup,thesamplesshouldbecloseenoughtosupportthegeneralization,soastopreventhistoricalchangesfrominvalidatingthegeneralization.Allweknowisthatthesurveyisrecentlypublished.Thelessrecentthesurveyitself,thelessreliabletheresultstodemonstratethat.（）theargumentmakesahastygeneralizationaboutthetypesofissuesworkersareinterestedin.Itaccordswithcommonsensethatworkerswouldbeinterestedincorporaterestructuringandrede