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1Designationsforthe2006PM2.5Standards:EvaluatingtheNineFactorsinSettingNonattainmentAreaBoundaries
1Designationsforthe2006PM22
The9DesignationFactors
ToHelpDetermine
NearbyAreaofInfluence
for24-hrNAAQSViolationsEmissionsAirQualityMeteorologyTopographyPoliticalandOtherBoundariesCurrentEmissionControlsGrowthTraffic&CommutingPopulationandUrbanizationNonAttainmentBoundariesAirQualityisoneofthemostImportantDesignationFactors2The9DesignationFactors
T3TopicstobeCoveredConceptualmodelforhighPMdaysSeasonswhenexceedancesoccurCompositionofthehighdaysAnalyticaltoolsSLICEtechnique-forevaluatingurbancontributionstohighdaysResidencetimeanalysis–forassessingnearbycontributingsourceregionsusingbacktrajectoriesandemissionsdataGradientanalysis–foridentifyingdayswithpotentialhighsource-orientedimpacts3TopicstobeCoveredConceptua4ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5DaysHowtodefinehighPM2.5days?Whatisthetypical“dailyincrement”forhighPMdaysinrelationtotheannualaverage?Whatistheurbancontributionaboveregionallevels?4ConceptualModelforHighPM25ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
WhathighPM2.5daystoconsider?“HighPM2.5Days”Associatedwiththe98thpercentileNotjustonedayperyearSelectallcandidatedays e.g.top5%ordays>30-35ug/m3Summarizebyseasontodistinguishvaryingconditions5ConceptualModelforHighPM2640ug/m31624PM2.5HighDayValueSeasonalAverage+TypicalDailyIncrementExampleTypicalDailyIncrement-ExampleTheannualaveragePM2.5(urbanbackground)isthestuffthatisthereonaday-to-daybasis.ComesfromnearbyandmoredistantareasCanbeestimatedbyseasonalaveragePM2.5concentrationofnon-highdaysIncludescontributionsfromallnearbysurroundingcountiesCanbeestimatedusingthetraditionalurbanincrementapproachThedailyincrement(ontopofannualaverageurbanbackground)alsohasregionalandlocalcontributions.-Keyissue:whatcountiesandsourcesfromtheurbanareacontributetothetypicaldailyincrement?ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
HighDailyPM2.5hasUrbanandRegionalComponents640ug/m31624PM2.5Seasonal+Typ7ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
Anapproachtopartitiontypicallevelsinto
urbanandregionalcomponentsUrbanIncrementAnalysesasusedin2004/2005PM2.5DesignationsUrbansourcesintheEasternUScontributeatleast4-6ug/m3toannualaveragePM2.5
ProbablyevenlargerurbancontributioninwesternUScitiesCarbonissignificantcomponentofaveragePM2.5mass,butmetroareaemissionstypicallyaremuchlessthanSO2andNOxWeightedemissionsscoredevelopedtogiveadditionalweighttonearbydirectcarbonemissionsastheycontributetotheurbanbackground7ConceptualModelforHighPM28urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]naturalbackgroundUrbanareas~14-20ug/m3Countryside~10-12ug/m310152030253540ConceptualDiagram-AnnualAveragePM2.5
AirQuality-AnnualAveragePM2.5
regionalcontributionWesternUSurbanareasmayhavesmallerregionalcontribution8urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]natu9urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]naturalbackground10152030253540ConceptualDiagram-HighDailyPM2.5Concentrations
AirQuality-HighDailyPM2.5ConcentrationsregionalcontributionUrbanareas~30-40ug/m3Countryside~18-30ug/m3Larger“urbanisland”onpeakdaysFocusofnewanalyses:understandingwhatemissionscontributetourbanincrementWesternUSurbanareasmayhavesmallerregionalcontribution9urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]natu10ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
SourceregionconsiderationsRoleofRegionalvsUrbanvsMicro-scaleInfluencesOnhighdaysparticularlyintheeast,regionalemissionsoftenprovidea“base”amountofpollutionUrban-wideandnearbyemissionsalsocontributesignificantlytohighdays:“urbanisland”effectInsomecases,theremaybeamicro-scaleeffectfromasinglesourceorsmallgroupofsourcesDoesnothelpdefineNAboundaries,unlessitistheonlycontributingsource(Note:“urban”canmeanlargemetropolitanareaorsmallercity)AirQuality10ConceptualModelforHighPM11ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
SeasonswhenexceedancesoccurTimeofYearforExceedances-variesbyGeographicRegionSE:MostlysummerIndustrialMidwest(IMW),Mid-Atlantic,So.CA:WinterandsummerNW,UT,NM,MiddleCA:MostlyorexclusivelyWinter11ConceptualModelforHighPM12%50
250NWUTIMWMidCAS.CASEMidAtlPercentof2003-05FRMDays>35ug/m3byMonthBasedonallsiteswhichviolate24-hrNAAQSJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDLaCruces,NM%50
250JFMAMJJASOND12%50NWUTIMWMidCAS.CASEMidAt13ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
CompositiondataareimportantCompositionIndicatewhichsourcesarecontributingtoaverageandhighPM2.5valuesVariesacrosscountryWarmseasonexceedances:
Mostlysulfate+organiccarbonColdseasonexceedances:
Nitrate(athigherlatitudesandinWesternUS)+sulfate+carbon;Carbonmaydominateinsomelocations(e.g.MT,ID)GapsinspeciationdataforcertainareasAirQuality13ConceptualModelforHighPM14CompositiononAnnualAverageandHighPM2.5Days(FromPMStaffPaper)
SomesourcecategoriesandregionalinfluencesmaybemoreimportantforhighconcentrationdaysComparingaverageof5highestdaysduring2003,regionalsourcesofsulfatesandnitratesarelargercontributorstopeakdayconcentrationsthantoannualaverage(selectedcityanalysis)CompositioncanvaryfromhighdaytohighdayCarboncanbesmalleras%--butstilllargerinabsoluteconcentrationvalues--comparedtotheaverageNote:Allthenewanalysespresent“FRM”compositionwiththepeer-reviewed“SANDWICH”TechniqueAsusedinCAIRandPM2.5RIASMWCANEFromPMStaffPaper(Raoetal)BirmAtlantaNYCClevelandChicagoSt.LouisSLCFresnoUTMoreSulfateMoreNitrateHighPM2.5dayshave:NitrateTCMSulfateCrustal
ThisanalysisshowsPM2.5Compositionoftheambientaerosol(notadjustedtorepresentFRMmass)AirQuality14CompositiononAnnualAvera15NWUTIMWMidCAS.CALaCrucesNMSEMidAtlAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3Cold“Example”CompositionforHighDays[“Warm”Season(May-Sept)&
“Cold”]Butsitescanbedifferentwithineach“domain”ColdColdWarmColdWarmWarmColdWarmColdColdColdElPasoSTNorJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND%50
250%50
250Piesrepresentaverageof3highestdaysperyearperseason,usingSANDWICHor15NWUTIMWMidCAS.CALaCrucesSE16Compositionisoftensimilaramongthehighdays3highestPM2.5days>30ug/m3Perseason,Milwaukee,WI(2003-05)AverageCoolSeasonWarmSeasonMeasuredPM2.5mass,ug/m3BlacklineisdifferencebetweenOCMmbandOCM14Milwaukee,2003-05PM2.5days>30ug/m316Compositionisoftensimilar17UseresidenttimeweightedemissionstopartitioneachcomponentoftotaldailyIncrementsintourban®ionalcontributions(%ofRTWEinlocalarea)ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
AnapproachtopartitiontotaldailyincrementintourbanandregionalcomponentsDailycompositionminusSeasonalavg.PM2.5days>30ug/m3Perseason&year,Milwaukee,WI(2003-05)MeasuredPM2.5massTheurbanbackgroundPM2.5canbeestimatedusingseasonalaveragePM2.5concentrationofnon-highdaysCoolWarmCoolseasonWarmseasonNextsubtractthedailycompositionfromtheseasonalaveragePM2.517Useresidenttimeweightede18AnalyticalTools
tohelpidentifyboundariesanddevelopSIPsSLICEtechnique-forevaluatingurbancontributionstohighdaysResidencetimeanalysis–forassessingnearbycontributingsourceregionsusingbacktrajectoriesandemissionsdataUrbangradientanalysis–foridentifyingwhetherthereareanysitespredominantlyaffectedbyasinglesource18AnalyticalTools
tohelpide19“SLICE”toidentify“urbanisland”daysandrelativeurbanamountofPM2.5massEvidenceofurbansourcecontributionsUrban“gradient”techniqueEvidenceofpredominantstrongnearbysourceinfluenceAnalyticalTools
IdentifyurbanPM2.5andgradientsAirQualityAirQualityEmissionsMetDailyurbanportionofPM2.519“SLICE”toidentify“urbani20AnalyticalTools-ResidenceTimeAnalysis
Wheredidtheairparcelcomefrom
onhighconcentrationdays?TransportpatternsproducingapotentialsourceregionUsetrajectoriesand“Residence-TimeAnalysis”tofindupwindprobabilityfields.ForPM2.5massoritscomponentsFocusontheensembleof“HighPM2.5days”,byseasonforsubsequentlinkingtocompositionpattern.Dayswithidentified“urbanislands”aremoreimportantLocalpollutionroses(annualvs.highdays)wouldalsobehelpfultoidentifynearbysources.MetAirQualityResidencetimeprobabilityplotswithHYSPLITtrajectorieshavebeenusedbyKinski,Poirotandotherstoidentifypotentialsourceregions.20AnalyticalTools-Residence21AnalyticalTools-Residencetimeweightedemissions
Whatare
themostlikelycontributingemissions?Spatialdistributionofemissionsbyseason
DevelopedfrommonthlyemissionsforprecursorsanddirectPM:(SO2,NOx,Carbon,Crustal)TheimportanceofeachprecursorpollutantcanbeguidedbythecompositionofthehighPM2.5day.considermonthlyemissionscorrespondingtotheaffectedPMcomponentaccordingtotypicalcompositionbyseason.Someprecursorswillnotbeconsideredorcouldbedown-weighted.e.g.crustal(year-round)andNOX(summer).ResidencetimeweightedemissionsUseprobabilitythatairparcelpassedoveranareatoweightemissionsaspotentialcontributorstothehighdayconcentrationimpactsHighprobabilitynearbycontributingemissionscanbeidentifiedforeachPM2.5contributorEmissionsMetEmissionsAirQuality21AnalyticalTools-Residence22SummaryIdentifyingtheareaofemissioninfluenceconsiderscontributionsforeach“highPM2.5day”andurbanaveragebackgroundontopofwhicharethedailyimpactsHighconcentrationdayswithevidenceofurbaninfluence(i.e.withurbanislands)aremoreimportantThemagnitudeofurbanislandcanhelpdefinethedailyurbancontributions.Incombinationwithdailyandaveragespeciationdata,byseasonoftheyearEmissionswithhighprobabilityoftrajectoryresidencetimeareimportanttoassesshighdayimpacts.Averageemissionsandtypicalwindpatternshelpunderstandthesourcescontributingtotheurban“background”Bothusedtounderstandtherelativeimportanceofthevariousnearbycontributingemissions(e.g.directPMvsSO2vsNOx).22SummaryIdentifyingthearea23Designationsforthe2006PM2.5Standards:EvaluatingtheNineFactorsinSettingNonattainmentAreaBoundaries
1Designationsforthe2006PM224
The9DesignationFactors
ToHelpDetermine
NearbyAreaofInfluence
for24-hrNAAQSViolationsEmissionsAirQualityMeteorologyTopographyPoliticalandOtherBoundariesCurrentEmissionControlsGrowthTraffic&CommutingPopulationandUrbanizationNonAttainmentBoundariesAirQualityisoneofthemostImportantDesignationFactors2The9DesignationFactors
T25TopicstobeCoveredConceptualmodelforhighPMdaysSeasonswhenexceedancesoccurCompositionofthehighdaysAnalyticaltoolsSLICEtechnique-forevaluatingurbancontributionstohighdaysResidencetimeanalysis–forassessingnearbycontributingsourceregionsusingbacktrajectoriesandemissionsdataGradientanalysis–foridentifyingdayswithpotentialhighsource-orientedimpacts3TopicstobeCoveredConceptua26ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5DaysHowtodefinehighPM2.5days?Whatisthetypical“dailyincrement”forhighPMdaysinrelationtotheannualaverage?Whatistheurbancontributionaboveregionallevels?4ConceptualModelforHighPM227ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
WhathighPM2.5daystoconsider?“HighPM2.5Days”Associatedwiththe98thpercentileNotjustonedayperyearSelectallcandidatedays e.g.top5%ordays>30-35ug/m3Summarizebyseasontodistinguishvaryingconditions5ConceptualModelforHighPM22840ug/m31624PM2.5HighDayValueSeasonalAverage+TypicalDailyIncrementExampleTypicalDailyIncrement-ExampleTheannualaveragePM2.5(urbanbackground)isthestuffthatisthereonaday-to-daybasis.ComesfromnearbyandmoredistantareasCanbeestimatedbyseasonalaveragePM2.5concentrationofnon-highdaysIncludescontributionsfromallnearbysurroundingcountiesCanbeestimatedusingthetraditionalurbanincrementapproachThedailyincrement(ontopofannualaverageurbanbackground)alsohasregionalandlocalcontributions.-Keyissue:whatcountiesandsourcesfromtheurbanareacontributetothetypicaldailyincrement?ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
HighDailyPM2.5hasUrbanandRegionalComponents640ug/m31624PM2.5Seasonal+Typ29ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
Anapproachtopartitiontypicallevelsinto
urbanandregionalcomponentsUrbanIncrementAnalysesasusedin2004/2005PM2.5DesignationsUrbansourcesintheEasternUScontributeatleast4-6ug/m3toannualaveragePM2.5
ProbablyevenlargerurbancontributioninwesternUScitiesCarbonissignificantcomponentofaveragePM2.5mass,butmetroareaemissionstypicallyaremuchlessthanSO2andNOxWeightedemissionsscoredevelopedtogiveadditionalweighttonearbydirectcarbonemissionsastheycontributetotheurbanbackground7ConceptualModelforHighPM230urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]naturalbackgroundUrbanareas~14-20ug/m3Countryside~10-12ug/m310152030253540ConceptualDiagram-AnnualAveragePM2.5
AirQuality-AnnualAveragePM2.5
regionalcontributionWesternUSurbanareasmayhavesmallerregionalcontribution8urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]natu31urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]naturalbackground10152030253540ConceptualDiagram-HighDailyPM2.5Concentrations
AirQuality-HighDailyPM2.5ConcentrationsregionalcontributionUrbanareas~30-40ug/m3Countryside~18-30ug/m3Larger“urbanisland”onpeakdaysFocusofnewanalyses:understandingwhatemissionscontributetourbanincrementWesternUSurbanareasmayhavesmallerregionalcontribution9urbanincrementPM[µg/m³]natu32ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
SourceregionconsiderationsRoleofRegionalvsUrbanvsMicro-scaleInfluencesOnhighdaysparticularlyintheeast,regionalemissionsoftenprovidea“base”amountofpollutionUrban-wideandnearbyemissionsalsocontributesignificantlytohighdays:“urbanisland”effectInsomecases,theremaybeamicro-scaleeffectfromasinglesourceorsmallgroupofsourcesDoesnothelpdefineNAboundaries,unlessitistheonlycontributingsource(Note:“urban”canmeanlargemetropolitanareaorsmallercity)AirQuality10ConceptualModelforHighPM33ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
SeasonswhenexceedancesoccurTimeofYearforExceedances-variesbyGeographicRegionSE:MostlysummerIndustrialMidwest(IMW),Mid-Atlantic,So.CA:WinterandsummerNW,UT,NM,MiddleCA:MostlyorexclusivelyWinter11ConceptualModelforHighPM34%50
250NWUTIMWMidCAS.CASEMidAtlPercentof2003-05FRMDays>35ug/m3byMonthBasedonallsiteswhichviolate24-hrNAAQSJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASONDLaCruces,NM%50
250JFMAMJJASOND12%50NWUTIMWMidCAS.CASEMidAt35ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
CompositiondataareimportantCompositionIndicatewhichsourcesarecontributingtoaverageandhighPM2.5valuesVariesacrosscountryWarmseasonexceedances:
Mostlysulfate+organiccarbonColdseasonexceedances:
Nitrate(athigherlatitudesandinWesternUS)+sulfate+carbon;Carbonmaydominateinsomelocations(e.g.MT,ID)GapsinspeciationdataforcertainareasAirQuality13ConceptualModelforHighPM36CompositiononAnnualAverageandHighPM2.5Days(FromPMStaffPaper)
SomesourcecategoriesandregionalinfluencesmaybemoreimportantforhighconcentrationdaysComparingaverageof5highestdaysduring2003,regionalsourcesofsulfatesandnitratesarelargercontributorstopeakdayconcentrationsthantoannualaverage(selectedcityanalysis)CompositioncanvaryfromhighdaytohighdayCarboncanbesmalleras%--butstilllargerinabsoluteconcentrationvalues--comparedtotheaverageNote:Allthenewanalysespresent“FRM”compositionwiththepeer-reviewed“SANDWICH”TechniqueAsusedinCAIRandPM2.5RIASMWCANEFromPMStaffPaper(Raoetal)BirmAtlantaNYCClevelandChicagoSt.LouisSLCFresnoUTMoreSulfateMoreNitrateHighPM2.5dayshave:NitrateTCMSulfateCrustal
ThisanalysisshowsPM2.5Compositionoftheambientaerosol(notadjustedtorepresentFRMmass)AirQuality14CompositiononAnnualAvera37NWUTIMWMidCAS.CALaCrucesNMSEMidAtlAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3ColdAvgHigh3WarmAvgHigh3Cold“Example”CompositionforHighDays[“Warm”Season(May-Sept)&
“Cold”]Butsitescanbedifferentwithineach“domain”ColdColdWarmColdWarmWarmColdWarmColdColdColdElPasoSTNorJFMAMJJASONDJFMAMJJASOND%50
250%50
250Piesrepresentaverageof3highestdaysperyearperseason,usingSANDWICHor15NWUTIMWMidCAS.CALaCrucesSE38Compositionisoftensimilaramongthehighdays3highestPM2.5days>30ug/m3Perseason,Milwaukee,WI(2003-05)AverageCoolSeasonWarmSeasonMeasuredPM2.5mass,ug/m3BlacklineisdifferencebetweenOCMmbandOCM14Milwaukee,2003-05PM2.5days>30ug/m316Compositionisoftensimilar39UseresidenttimeweightedemissionstopartitioneachcomponentoftotaldailyIncrementsintourban®ionalcontributions(%ofRTWEinlocalarea)ConceptualModelforHighPM2.5Days
AnapproachtopartitiontotaldailyincrementintourbanandregionalcomponentsDailycompositionminusSeasonalavg.PM2.5days>30ug/m3Perseason&year,Milwaukee,WI(2003-05)MeasuredPM2.5massTheurbanbackgroundPM2.5canbeestimatedusingseasonalaveragePM2.5concentrationofnon-highdaysCoolWarmCoolseasonWarmseasonNextsubtractthedailycompositionfromtheseasonalaveragePM2.517Useresidenttimeweightede40AnalyticalTools
tohelpidentifyboundariesanddevelopSIPsSLICEtechnique-forevaluatingurbancontributionstohighdaysResidencetimeanalysis–forassessingnearbycontributingsourceregionsusingbacktrajectoriesandemissionsdataUrbangradientanalysis–foridentifyingwhetherthereareanysitespredominantlyaffectedbyasinglesource18AnalyticalTools
tohelpide41“SLICE”toidentify“urbanisland”daysandrelativeurbanamountofPM2.5massEvidenceofurbansourcecontributionsUrban“gradient”techniqueEvidenceofpredominantstrongnearbysourceinfluenceAnalyticalTools
IdentifyurbanPM2.5andgradientsAirQualityAirQualityEmissionsMetDailyurbanportionofPM2.519“SLICE”toidentify“urbani42AnalyticalTools-ResidenceTimeAnalysis
Wheredidtheairparcelcomefrom
onhighconcentrationdays?Transportpatternsproducingapotentialsourceregion
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