美国能源部+海上风电市场报告：2022年版-126正式版

OffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionDisclaimerThisworkwaspreparedasanaccountofworksponsoredbyanagencyoftheUnitedStatesGovernment.NeithertheUnitedStatesGovernmentnoranyagencythereof,noranyoftheiremployees,noranyoftheircontractors,subcontractors,ortheiremployees,makesanywarranty,expressorimplied,orassumesanylegalliabilityorresponsibilityfortheaccuracy,completeness,oranythirdparty’suseortheresultsofsuchuseofanyinformation,apparatus,product,orprocessdisclosed,orrepresentsthatitsusewouldnotinfringeprivatelyownedrights.Referencehereintoanyspecificcommercialproduct,process,orservicebytradename,trademark,manufacturer,orotherwise,doesnotnecessarilyconstituteorimplyitsendorsement,recommendation,orfavoringbytheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereoforitscontractorsorsubcontractors.TheviewsandopinionsofauthorsexpressedhereindonotnecessarilystateorreflectthoseoftheUnitedStatesGovernmentoranyagencythereof,itscontractorsorsubcontractors.iiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionAuthorsWalterMusial,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL)PaulSpitsen,U.S.DepartmentofEnergyPatrickDuffy,NRELPhilippBeiter,NRELMelindaMarquis,NRELRobHammond,NRELMattShields,NREL.iiiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionAcknowledgmentsTheauthorswouldliketoextendthankstoGageReber,fromtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)WindEnergyTechnologiesOffice,forsupportingthisresearch.ThanksalsotoLizHartman,PatrickGilman,JocelynBrown-Saracino,DanBeals,andMonicaMaherfromtheDOEWindEnergyTechnologiesOfficefortheirsupportandstrategicguidance.TheauthorswouldalsoliketothankthefollowingreviewersandcontributorsfromtheNationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory(NREL):BrianSmith,PaulVeers,andEricLantz.Thisreportwaspeer-reviewedbyadiversegroupofoffshorewindenergyindustrystakeholdersincludingdevelopers,windturbinemanufacturers,stategovernmentrepresentatives,internalDOEOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergystaff,NRELmanagementstaff,consultants,andregulators.Thesepeerreviewersinclude:LizBurdock,TheBusinessNetworkforOffshoreWindBrandonBurke,RambollBruceCarlisle,MassachusettsCleanEnergyCenterMaxwellCohen,ØrstedAdrienneDowney,HexiconEricHines,TuftsUniversityCheriHunter,BureauofSafetyandEnvironmentalEnforcementJoshKaplowitz,AmericanCleanPowerJeffKehne,MagellanWindAngelMcCoy,BureauofOceanEnergyManagementGarthNeuffer,OffshoreWindCaliforniaKrisOhleth,SpecialInitiativeonOffshoreWindJørnScharlingHolm,ØrstedAdamStern,OffshoreWindCaliforniaNecitasSumait,BureauofOceanEnergyManagementAbbyWatson,Mainstream.EditingwasprovidedbySheriAnstedt(NREL)andgraphicsandcoverdesignwerecreatedbyJohnFrenzl(NREL).AdditionalcommunicationsandcoordinationwereprovidedbyAlexLemke(NREL),AmyHowerton(NREL),andJenGrieco(NREL).ThisreportwasproducedbyNRELforDOE’sOfficeofEnergyEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyWindEnergyTechnologiesOffice.ivOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionListofAcronymsBNEF BloombergNEFBOEM BureauofOceanEnergyManagementCapEx capitalexpendituresCOD commercialoperationdateCOP ConstructionandOperationsPlanCTV crewtransfervesselDOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyGE GeneralElectricGW gigawattkm kilometerLCOE levelizedcostofenergyLEEDCo LakeErieEnergyDevelopmentCorporationmeterMWmegawattMWhmegawatt-hourNREL NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryNTP NationalTransmissionPlanningOCS OuterContinentalShelfO&M operationsandmaintenanceOEM originalequipmentmanufacturerOREC offshorerenewableenergycertificateOWDB offshorewinddatabasePOI pointofinterconnectionPPA powerpurchaseagreementROD RecordofDecisionSAP siteassessmentplanSOV serviceoperationvesselTBD tobedeterminedWEA windenergyareaWTIV windturbineinstallationvesselvOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionExecutiveSummaryThe“OffshoreWindMarketReport:2022Edition”providesdetailedinformationontheU.S.andglobaloffshorewindenergyindustriestoinformpolicymakers,researchers,andanalystsabouttechnology,economic,andmarkettrends.Thescopeofthereportcoversthestatusofmorethan257globaloperatingoffshorewindenergyprojectsaswellasthebroaderglobalpipelineofprojectsinvariousstagesofdevelopmentthroughDec.31,2021.Toprovideup-to-datedataanddiscussionofthisemergingindustryintheUnitedStates,thisreporttracksthemostsignificantU.S.domesticindustryprogressandeventsfromJan.1,2021,throughMay31,2022.U.S.OffshoreWindEnergyMarketByMay2022,theU.S.offshorewindenergyprojectdevelopmentandoperationalpipelinegrewtoapotentialgeneratingcapacityof40,083megawatts(MW).The40,083MWintheU.S.offshorewindenergypipelineshowsa13.5%growthoverthe35,324MWreportedinthe“OffshoreWindMarketReport:2021Edition”(Musial,Spitsen,etal.2021).TheexpansionoftheU.S.projectpipelinewaslargelyduetotheadditionofeightnewleaseareasthatwereauctionedintheAtlanticandtwoCallAreasthatwereconvertedintowindenergyareas(WEAs)inCalifornia(U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior2021).EventhoughthreeoftheexistingWEAswerereclassifiedas“dormant”andremovedfromthepipeline,thenetexpansionwas4,759MWhigherthanthecapacityreportedinMay2021.AmapofthecurrentpipelineactivityandCallAreasisshowninFigureES-1.Statespoliciesaimtoprocureatleast39,322MWofoffshorewindenergycapacityby2040.TheU.S.offshorewindenergymarketcontinuestobedrivenbystate-leveloffshorewindenergyprocurementactivitiesandpolicies.Collectively,offshorewindenergypoliciesineightstatescallfordeployingatleast39,322MWofoffshorewindenergycapacityby2040,whichisapproximatelythesametotalamountreportedinthe“OffshoreWindMarketReport:2021Edition.”Thesepoliciesprovideapathwaytoachievingthenationaloffshorewindenergytargetof30gigawatts(GW)by2030(TheWhiteHouse2021a).BOEMannouncesplantodevelopWEAsinuptosevenU.S.regionsby2025.InOctober2021,BOEMannouncedits“OffshoreWindLeasingPathForward2021‒2025,”callingforplanstoholduptosevennewoffshoreWEAleaseauctionsincludingtheNewYorkBight,CarolinaLongBay,CentralAtlantic,GulfofMaine,California,Oregon,andtheGulfofMexicoby2025(U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior2021).ThenewleaseareaswillsubstantiallyincreasethenumberofviableoffshorewindenergysitesintheUnitedStates,provideregionaldiversificationbeyondtheNorthAtlanticandmid-Atlantic,andenabletechnologydiversificationbyintroducingthefirstcommercialleaseopportunitiesforfloatingoffshorewindprojects.BOEMheldleaseauctionsforsixnewleaseareasintheNewYorkBightandtwoleaseareasinCarolinaLongBay.InFebruary2022,BOEMauctionedsixleaseareasintheNewYorkBight,whichsoldfor$4.37billion.TheleaseareasellingpricesrangedfromawinningbidviOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022Editionof$285millionforOCS-A0544($1,637,931persquarekilometer[km2])toawinningbidof$1.1billionforOCS-A0539($2,380,952/km2).TheauctionsetrecordsfortotalrevenuegeneratedfromanoffshoreenergyleaseauctionintheUnitedStates.InMay2022,thetwoleaseareasintheCarolinaLongBayauctionsoldforacombinedtotalof$315million,withanaveragesalepriceof$707,894/km2.AsofMay31,2022,24powerpurchaseagreements1foroffshorewindenergyprocurementweresignedintheUnitedStates.Eightstateshaveuniquetargetswithvaryingpowerofftakemechanismstoprocureelectricalgenerationfromspecificoffshorewindprojects.Thesestatepolicieshaveresultedin24powerpurchase(offtake)agreements,addingupto17,597MWinoffshorewindenergycontracts.Fromthebeginningof2021throughMay31,2022,10newpowerpurchaseagreements,totaling11,874MW,weresigned.Acontractbetweenonepartywhogeneratestheelectricity(theseller)andanotherpartywhoispurchasingtheelectricity(thebuyer).viiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionFigureES-1.LocationsofU.S.offshorewindpipelineactivityandCallAreasasofMay31,2022.MapcreatedbyNRELviiiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionGlobalOffshoreWindEnergyMarketGlobaloffshorewindenergyin2021hadarecordyearfordeploymentwith17,398MWofnewprojectscommissioned.Thesurgeinoffshorewindenergydeploymentthisyearpushedglobalinstalledcapacitypast50GW.ThisgrowthwaslargelyattributedtoChina,whichcommissioned13,790MW—morecapacityin1yearthantheentireworldhasinstalledinanysinglepreviousyear.TheUnitedKingdomhadthenextlargestannualdeployment(1,855MW),followedbyVietnam(643MW),Denmark(604MW),theNetherlands(402MW),andTaiwan(109MW)(NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory2021).Bytheendof2021,cumulativeglobaloffshorewindinstalledcapacitygrewto50,623MWfrom257operatingprojects.Projectionsindicatethatannualglobalcapacityadditionsmayfallbelowthe2021pacein2022,butoverall,newdeploymentswilllikelyaccelerateupto2025andbeyond.Theglobalgeneratingcapacitypotentialoftheprojectpipelineforalloffshorewindenergyprojectsreached368GWin2021.AsofDecember31,2021,theglobalpipeline(includesallprojectsfromtheplanningstagethroughthosealreadyinstalled)foroffshorewindenergydevelopmentcapacitywasassessedtobe368,170MW,upnearly20%overthe308GWreportedin2020.TheuptickisprimarilyattributedtomultiplenewAsian-basedprojectsannouncedthisyearthatareenteringtheplanningphase.Macroeconomicandgeopoliticaleventshaveraisedthelevelofmarketuncertaintyin2022.Theextendedimpactofmonetarypolicy,theCOVID-19pandemic,andtheongoingconflictinUkrainehavecreatedmacroeconomicvolatility,supplychaindisruptions,andinflationarypressures.Thesecomplexexternaldriversarehavingbothpositiveandnegativeimpactsonoffshorewindandbroaderenergyindustries.Increasedfossil-fuelpriceshavelednationsaroundtheworldtoacceleratethedevelopmentofrenewableenergytomitigaterisingconsumerelectricitycostsandstrengthentheirenergysecurity.Ontheotherhand,increasedcommoditypricesandcontinuedsupplychaindisruptionsthreatentoslowoffshorewindenergycostdeclinesorpotentiallyincreasecosts,whichcoulddampenoffshorewinddeploymentinthenearterm(Vestas2022).Theglobalpipelineforfloatingoffshorewindenergymorethandoubledin2021.Overall,the2021globalfloatingoffshorewindenergypipelinegrewfrom26,529MWto60,746MW,representing34,217MWofgrowthsincethe“OffshoreWindMarketReport:2021Edition.”ThisgrowthisattributedtoseveralnewprojectsinSouthKorea,theUnitedKingdom,Brazil,andAustraliaenteringthepipelineandbeginningtheirplanningphaseduring2021.Threefloatingoffshorewindenergyprojectscameonlinein2021,totaling57.1MWofnewcapacity.Thelargestfloatingoffshorewindprojectbuilttodate(50MWtotal—2MWofwhichmovedfromPortugalin2021),KincardineOffshoreWindFarm,cameonlineinScotland(PrinciplePower,Inc.2021).A5.5-MWfloatingoffshorewindenergydemonstrationprojectcameonlineinChina,whichwasdevelopedbyChinaThreeGorgesGroup(Russell2021).Additionally,the3.6-MWTetraSparDemonstrationProjectwasinstalledinNorwayatawaterdepthof200meters(StiesdalA/S2021).Withtheseadditions,thetotalglobalfloatingoffshorewindenergycapacityisnow123.4MW.ixOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionOffshoreWindEnergyTechnologyTrendsOffshorewindturbinesinthe15-MWclassareadvancingtowardcommercialproduction.Afterthethreeleadingwindturbinemanufacturersannouncedtheirplanstodevelopwindturbinesinthe15-MWclasslastyear,aleadingChinesemanufacturer,MingYang,announceditsplanstodelivera16-MWwindturbineforthecommercialmarketby2024.These15-MW-classwindturbinesareunderfulldevelopmentatSiemensGamesa,Vestas,andGeneralElectric,withintentionstohavethemavailableforpurchaseby2024orsooner.IndustryannouncementsindicatethatdeveloperswillbedependingontheseturbinesformostU.S.projects.OffshoreWindEnergyCostandPriceTrendsThelevelizedcostofenergyestimatedforU.S.fixed-bottomoffshorewindenergyprojectsin2021hasdeclinedto$84/megawatt-hour(MWh)onaverage,witharangeof$61/MWhto$116/MWhglobally.Thiscostdeclineinfixed-bottomoffshorewindfarms(i.e.,windturbinesconnectedrigidlytotheseafloor)representsareductionof13%onaveragecomparedto2020U.S.estimates,bringingthetotalcostreductiontomorethan50%since2014(Wiseretal.2021).Forrepresentativemarketscenarios,leadingresearchentitiesandconsultanciesestimatethatlevelizedcostoffixed-bottomoffshorewindenergywillbe$60/MWhonaverageby2030.Record-settingleaseauctionpricesintheNewYorkBightwerefollowedbyauctionformatchangestobenefitstatesandlocalstakeholders.The$4.37billionpaidforleasesintheNewYorkBightwasunprecedented.Whilesignalingstrongconfidenceintheoffshorewindenergymarket,thosehighleasepricestranslatetoabout$763/kilowattandraiseconcernsabouthigherelectricitycostsfromoffshorewindenergy.InMay2022,theBOEMauctionrulesweremodifiedfortheCarolinaLongBayauctionusingmultifactorbiddingcriteriathatallowbiddingcreditstobeallocatedforlocalsupplychaincommitments.AmultifactorapproachisalsoplannedinthenextupcomingleaseauctioninCaliforniascheduledforlate2022thatwillallowbiddingcreditsforlocalbenefits.FutureOutlookAlthoughstillatthebeginningstagesintheUnitedStates,offshorewindisnowrecognizedgloballyasoneoftheprincipalenergysourcestocombatclimatechange.Offshorewindenergydeploymentisforecastby4COffshoreandBloombergNEFtoincreasegloballytoabout260GWormoreby2030(4COffshore2022a;BloombergNEF2021a),andthenumberofcountriescurrentlygeneratingpowerfromoffshorewindenergyisexpectedtodoubleoverthenextdecade(Ferris2022).U.S.domesticoffshorewindenergydeploymentisexpectedtofollowglobalgrowthtrends,drivenbyrobuststate-levelprocurementtargets,andanationaltargetof30GWofoffshorewindenergyby2030,setinMarch2021.FollowingBOEM’sOctober2021announcementtorampupoffshoreleasinginFederalwaters,andtherecord-settingleasepricesobservedintheNewYorkBightauctioninFebruary2022,theU.S.industryissignalingrapidgrowth,andexpandingtoxOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionregionsoutsidetheNorthAtlanticandmid-Atlantic.Inthecomingyears,nationalleasingplanscallfornewoffshorewindenergyleaseareaauctionsintheGulfofMexico,Pacific,SouthAtlantic,andtheGulfofMaineby2024,whichwouldallowcommercialdevelopmentintheseregionsasearlyas2030.Astheseregionsintegrateoffshorewindenergyintotheirelectricitymarkets,theindustrywillneedtotacklenewtechnicalchallenges,suchashurricanesurvival,anchoringindeeperwater,andloweraveragewindspeeds,butthroughcontinuedindustryresearchthesolutionsappeartobeattainable(NationalOffshoreWindResearchandDevelopmentConsortium2021;U.S.DepartmentofEnergy2022c).Inparticular,thedevelopmentoffloatingwindturbinetechnologyislikelytocontinuetogainmomentumastheindustryworkstolowercoststolevelsapproximatelyequaltofixed-bottomwindturbinetechnologythroughthebenefitsofgreaterproductionvolumeandglobalmarketexperience.Beyondthenear-termleasingplans,theUnitedStatescouldalsoseeoffshorewindenergymoveforwardbytheendofthedecadeinregionslikeHawaii,PuertoRico,andtheGreatLakes,wheretechnicalfeasibility,windresources,andrenewableenergydemandrequirementsarealreadybeinginvestigated.Thedomesticandglobalpushforclean,carbon-freeelectricityandcompletedecarbonizationofallenergysectorsislikelytoremainaprimarydriverintheUnitedStatesforoffshorewindenergy,butcautionshouldbetakenasthepathtodevelopinglarge-scaleoffshorewindenergyisnotfreefromobstacles.Uncertainandfluctuatingpolicysupport,stakeholderconcerns,constrainedglobalsupplychains,inflation,restrictivelegislationforoceandevelopment,land-basedgridlimitations,andgeopoliticalconflictswillposechallengesthatcouldpotentiallyimpacttheindustry’sprogress.TheBidenadministration’s30-GW-by-2030goalsuggestsastrongpaceofdevelopmentandestablishesapathwaytodeploy110GWormoreofoffshorewindenergyintheUnitedStatesby2050(TheWhiteHouse2021a).Furtherresearchisneededtodeterminetheextentofoffshorewindenergy’sroleinadecarbonizedenergyfuture,butoffshorewindenergymarketindicatorssuggestitwillbeasubstantialpartofacomprehensiveU.S.decarbonizationstrategy.xiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionTableofContentsExecutiveSummary vi1 Introduction 11.1 ApproachandMethod 21.2 ReportStructure 62 U.S.OffshoreWindMarketAssessment 72.1 U.S.OffshoreWindIndustryOverview 72.2 U.S.OffshoreWindEnergyMarketPotentialandProjectPipelineAssessment 82.3 RegulatoryActivity 212.4 U.S.OffshoreWindProjectOfftake 342.5 U.S.InfrastructureTrends 372.6 OtherRegionalDevelopments 493 GlobalOffshoreWindEnergyDevelopment 513.1 CurrentStatusofGlobalOffshoreWindEnergyIndustry 513.2 MarketProjections 543.3 ForecastedProjectionsto2031 603.4 Country-SpecificOffshoreWindEnergyGoals 624 OffshoreWindEnergyTechnologyTrends 654.1 GlobalOffshoreWindSitingTrends 654.2 OffshoreWindEnergySubstructures 674.3 OffshoreWindTurbines 704.4 WindTurbineBladeRecycling 764.5 GreenHydrogenProductionFromOffshoreWind 774.6 OffshoreWindTechnologySummary 785 CostandPriceTrends 805.1 Fixed-BottomTechnologies 805.2 FloatingOffshoreWindEnergyCostTrends 875.3 FinancingTrends 88References 90xiiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionListofFiguresFigureES-1.LocationsofU.S.offshorewindpipelineactivityandCallAreasasofMay31,2022. viiiFigure1.U.S.projectpipelineclassificationbystatus 10Figure2.U.S.projectpipelinebystate 11Figure3.U.S.NorthAtlanticandGreatLakesoffshorewindenergypipelineandCallAreasasofMay31,2022. 12Figure4.SouthAtlanticandGulfofMexicooffshorewindpipelineandCallAreasasofMay31,2022. 16Figure5.PacificoffshorewindenergypipelineandCallAreasasofMay31,2022. 18Figure6.IndustryoffshorewindU.S.deploymentprojectionsto2031 20Figure7.BOEM’s“OffshoreWindLeasingPathForward2021‒2025.” 22Figure8.NewYorkBightleasingareamap 25Figure9.CarolinaLongBaywindenergyauction. 26Figure10.U.S.offshorewindleasepricepersquarekilometerbyyearleased 27Figure11.CaliforniaWEAsatHumboldtBayandMorroBay. 29Figure12.GulfofMexicoCallArea. 31Figure13.ProposedCallAreasforthestateofOregon. 32Figure14.ProposedCallAreasfortheCentralAtlantic. 33Figure15.Locationsofmajoroffshorewindportsandinfrastructureinvestments. 46Figure16.PotentialtransmissionoptionsintheNewJersey2021StateAgreementApproach 48Figure17.Globalcumulativeoffshorewindenergydeployment(top)andannualcapacityadditions(bottom)through2021 51Figure18.Globaloffshorewindenergyinstallationsin2021 52Figure19.Cumulativeinstalledoffshorewindcapacitybycountry 53Figure20.Kincardine50-MWfloatingoffshorewindplant. 54Figure21.Offshorewindcapacityunderconstructionbycountryasof2021 55Figure22.Developer-announcedoffshorewindcapacitythrough2027forprojectswithannouncedCOD 56Figure23.Estimatedcumulativeoffshorewindcapacitybycountrybasedondeveloper-announcedCODs(thedarkerareassignifydeployedcapacityandlighterareasrepresentprojecteddeployments) 57Figure24.CumulativefloatingoffshorewindcapacitybycountrybasedonannouncedCODsthrough2027 57Figure25.Totalglobalpipelinebyregulatorystatus 58Figure26.Totalglobalfloatingoffshorewindenergypipeline 59Figure27.Industryforecastsforglobaloffshorewindenergydeploymentto2031 61Figure28.Long-termcumulativefloatingoffshorewinddeploymentprojections 62Figure29.Globalfixed-bottomoffshorewindenergyprojectdepthsanddistancestoshore 65xiiiOffshoreWindMarketReport:2022EditionFigure30.Distancetoshoreforglobaloperatingandfuturefixed-bottomoffshorewindenergyprojects 66Figure31.Waterdepthforglobaloperatingandfuturefixed-bottomprojects 67Figure32.Offshorewindsubstructuretechnologyusedinoperatingprojects 68Figure33.Announcedoffshorewindsubstructuretechnologyforfutureprojects 69Figure34.Globalfloatingsubstructuremarketshare(installedandannounced) 70Figure35.Globalaverageoffshorewindturbinecapacity,hubheights,androtordiameters 71Figure36.Comparisonofoffshorewindturbineprototypeswithcommercialoffshoreturbinegrowth. 72Figure37.Offshorewindturbinemanufacturermarketshareforoperatingprojects. 74Figure38.Offshorewindturbinemanufacturermarketshareforannouncedprojects 75Figure39.LCOEestimatesforfixed-bottomoffshorewindenergyintheUnitedStates 81Figure40.Capitalexpendituresforglobaloffshorewindenergyprojects 84Figure41.RelativeshareofleasecostsfromtotalCapExofthetwomostrecentBOEMleasesales. 85Figure42.U.S.offshorewindpowerplantoperationalexpenditures. 86Figure43.AdjustedstrikepricesfromU.S.andEuropeanoffshorewindprocurements. 87Figure44.U.S.LCOEestimatesforfloatingoffshorewindtechnologies. 88ListofTablesTable1.OffshoreWindProjectPipelineClassificationCriteria 5Table2.U.S.OffshoreWindEnergyPipelineCategories 8Table3.U.S.OffshoreWindEnergyPipeline(NorthAtlanticandGreatLakes) 13Table4.U.S.OffshoreWindPipeline(SouthAtlanticandGulfofMexico) 17Tab