非银行业22三季报分析

一、证券行业2三季报分析业绩总览：前三季度收增速21，归母净利增速1%上市券商222前三季营收增速21，归母净利润增速31；3单季度归母净利润同比环比分别937。选取有41家市作为季分样02三季合营入30元同1，合计母润121元31中3单季营入135亿元同4环比83单度母利润7亿元同39，环比7。图表：上市券商2223营收和净利润情况亿元，归母净利营业收入3Q22同比环比2022Q1-Q3同比3Q22同比环比2022Q1-Q3同比中信证券53.71-1.4-10.0165.68-6.1149.36-25.7-24.1498.21-13.8海通证券13.18-64.0-59.560.75-48.668.34-39.9-14.3189.38-45.624.46-25.4-22.678.21-29.274.52-14.1-16.5236.18-12.2国泰君安20.55-43.3-46.784.28-27.671.61-28.3-37.2267.15-16.3广发证券10.36-62.4-64.252.34-39.448.11-45.7-39.3175.15-34.819.92-27.7-28.862.80-26.146.77-37.1-32.4152.98-29.8中金公司21.71-11.3-0.560.12-19.372.620.52.9193.93-10.69.17-68.2-60.042.79-42.252.38-40.6-34.4180.57-27.520.61-24.5-27.364.37-11.382.810.02.4227.0310.2中国银河21.14-32.8-23.764.40-13.090.68-17.3-16.6272.784.5国信证券15.55-48.3-36.347.62-38.949.98-25.1-6.2133.04-21.7东方证券13.55-16.4223.220.02-53.747.31-15.013.4120.26-36.2财通证券4.47-18.6-6.110.79-32.313.19-7.2-16.235.45-23.1兴业证券4.07-62.5-66.617.81-49.522.75-39.1-30.272.21-48.0长江证券1.58-79.6-78.99.56-56.512.66-46.9-36.841.12-38.10.68-86.3-85.33.60-74.87.86-46.1-40.025.36-36.1国金证券2.80-46.5-33.28.23-46.515.72-14.5-1.140.74-17.2东兴证券2.74-39.112.65.47-53.610.21-18.0-5.128.03-26.7华安证券2.34-34.0-62.29.57-1.17.52-1.3-33.124.016.10.32-85.4-90.12.27-74.93.12-48.4-63.111.95-53.4东吴证券4.18-26.5-40.612.36-35.144.1790.449.187.1836.4方正证券5.19-17.3-45.019.410.618.30-23.1-24.059.05-8.60.69-86.6-85.32.75-77.315.65-27.3-2.439.67-21.91.33-74.4-74.05.67-58.16.30-71.7-57.027.19-53.8浙商证券4.29-39.66.111.56-27.241.21-16.8-4.8115.84-4.1国元证券4.11-14.3-52.611.60-12.514.18-1.0-23.838.644.2红塔证券-3.01-197.6-128.80.25-97.6-2.01-115.5-112.96.87-87.52.47-24.6-11.37.66-18.88.08-21.18.022.55-14.3南京证券1.76-15.8-25.25.36-39.45.71-9.50.815.30-27.5西部证券1.38-49.8-63.34.97-49.816.243.1-6.843.65-8.9光大证券12.9830.5-9.934.064.635.50-17.611.289.23-27.5第一创业0.53-80.5-75.33.41-45.55.83-39.0-26.819.12-20.9山西证券0.70-63.5-71.03.77-38.810.83-8.6-26.930.405.0国海证券0.60-81.3-68.33.01-61.411.18-14.29.528.02-28.9太平洋0.14-93.0-116.3-0.64-118.72.61-56.8-47.010.01-21.6华林证券1.50119.58.44.37-9.13.5123.01.210.27-3.4天风证券0.00-99.9-99.90.52-91.86.96-46.0-9.018.27-37.42.28-14.9-258.31.02-79.46.60-42.065.314.48-58.3中泰证券0.17-98.0-97.69.28-63.524.03-25.9-24.074.17-17.6国联证券2.06-25.8-16.96.44-2.07.81-15.522.520.550.0财达证券1.269.1-26.53.74-31.54.87-34.3-18.714.35-26.9合计307.52-38.7-36.51,021.25-31.21,235.08-24.4-18.33,710.38-21.0，盈利能力及经营杠RE的同比大幅下降主要利润同比下降导致的RA下降，经营杠杆略有下降。222年季度行权RE（年为62同降38pc环比2降032pc权RA（年17同降079c，比2降003c；营杆（剔客资）为3，同下降009环比2下降01。此，从拆看RE的比幅下主是润比降导的RA降，经营略下。图表：上市券商2223盈利能力和经营杠杆况，倍2021Q32022Q2ROE2022Q3同比环比2021Q32022Q2ROA2022Q3同比环比2021Q32022Q2经营杠杆2022Q3同比环比中信证券12.459.289.07-3.39-0.212.151.731.75-0.400.024.654.634.32-0.33-0.31海通证券9.925.764.93-4.99-0.832.351.201.02-1.33-0.173.573.523.560.000.0411.087.387.13-3.95-0.251.941.341.29-0.65-0.054.704.494.50-0.200.01国泰君安11.498.787.73-3.76-1.052.161.581.40-0.76-0.184.154.414.230.08-0.18广发证券11.437.806.43-5.00-1.372.621.671.40-1.22-0.273.603.923.830.23-0.0911.297.967.83-3.47-0.132.041.431.42-0.62-0.014.684.404.25-0.43-0.15中金公司13.759.189.48-4.270.301.721.161.24-0.490.086.746.435.97-0.77-0.4610.736.945.91-4.83-1.031.881.190.99-0.88-0.194.774.864.46-0.31-0.4015.1711.9811.61-3.56-0.372.381.911.86-0.52-0.054.514.024.06-0.460.04中国银河11.728.408.31-3.41-0.092.041.471.45-0.59-0.024.324.804.980.660.18国信证券13.337.066.91-6.43-0.153.121.681.69-1.430.013.043.253.070.03-0.17东方证券9.731.723.72-6.012.001.870.380.77-1.100.393.753.343.29-0.46-0.05财通证券8.974.584.81-4.160.232.171.171.30-0.870.143.322.622.84-0.490.21兴业证券12.046.565.48-6.56-1.083.001.531.28-1.71-0.253.593.653.22-0.36-0.43长江证券10.155.284.25-5.89-1.031.970.960.79-1.18-0.173.984.224.150.17-0.078.672.602.15-6.52-0.452.340.610.51-1.84-0.102.923.042.970.04-0.07国金证券8.894.083.92-4.97-0.162.741.201.23-1.520.032.682.352.35-0.330.00东兴证券7.292.042.73-4.560.691.740.540.76-0.990.213.553.243.04-0.52-0.21华安证券7.997.326.47-1.52-0.851.901.901.70-0.20-0.202.762.712.74-0.020.034.761.541.20-3.56-0.341.480.360.29-1.19-0.072.712.872.800.09-0.06东吴证券8.964.364.40-4.560.042.341.281.34-1.010.062.832.622.45-0.38-0.17方正证券6.356.766.13-0.21-0.631.931.721.57-0.36-0.152.542.952.900.35-0.059.442.282.03-7.41-0.252.250.630.54-1.71-0.093.683.433.46-0.220.029.684.403.69-5.99-0.712.300.930.84-1.45-0.093.473.792.63-0.83-1.16浙商证券9.766.026.20-3.560.181.981.171.21-0.770.044.003.503.63-0.370.13国元证券5.634.624.75-0.880.131.771.221.25-0.520.032.653.183.220.570.04红塔证券8.952.80-0.04-8.99-2.843.621.380.05-3.57-1.331.572.021.920.35-0.098.206.526.37-1.83-0.152.101.641.60-0.50-0.042.422.192.13-0.29-0.06南京证券7.314.324.31-3.00-0.012.451.381.40-1.050.022.422.392.420.000.03西部证券5.012.632.44-2.57-0.191.950.820.77-1.18-0.052.223.043.040.820.00光大证券8.137.227.76-0.370.541.851.751.880.040.133.172.932.84-0.33-0.09第一创业5.893.943.12-2.77-0.822.131.481.15-0.98-0.332.342.422.510.170.09山西证券4.833.542.91-1.92-0.631.140.700.57-0.57-0.133.603.934.230.630.30国海证券5.632.582.16-3.47-0.421.750.770.67-1.08-0.092.503.653.460.96-0.20太平洋4.65-1.62-0.88-5.530.742.09-0.82-0.51-2.590.311.491.201.15-0.34-0.05华林证券10.479.029.32-1.150.302.612.182.33-0.280.152.523.423.410.90-0.01天风证券3.800.420.28-3.52-0.141.020.130.10-0.91-0.023.123.423.320.20-0.104.88-1.841.00-3.882.841.25-0.480.25-1.000.732.902.882.57-0.33-0.30中泰证券9.855.063.45-6.40-1.611.870.920.66-1.21-0.264.184.304.210.03-0.09国联证券8.075.265.17-2.89-0.091.581.211.27-0.310.063.394.063.560.17-0.49财达证券7.204.404.44-2.760.041.711.051.11-0.600.063.103.142.99-0.12-0.15合计 10.09 6.55 6.23 -3.86-0.32 2.06 1.30 1.27 -0.79 -0.03 3.91 3.94 3.82 -0.09 -0.12，分业务来看投业务入下滑成为业绩下主分务收增速看前季经投资息收速分为164、54%、39%、521%、58%，总体上仅投行业务收入保持增长，其他业有同度其中入滑主原41家商计自营务入95元而去前季为244亿元从增量贡献来看，前季营收入10亿，去同下降988元其投行业务贡献2的量成为仅存的正贡献业投资收入的下降献了66，为累绩主因。图表：上市券商分业收及增量贡献情况亿元，2022Q1-Q3 同比增量贡献 增量营业收入3,710.38-21.0-100-988.09经纪869.58-16.4-17-170.69投行429.985.4221.85资管336.10-3.9-1-13.70自营595.28-52.1-66-648.51信用436.35-5.8-3-26.97，投资业务表现成为定券商业绩表的关因。前0商，中信、泰、国、中、建投银河的收增好于行平均其收增高整水的要因为资务现于整。图表：上市券商分业收、增速及结构况亿元

营业收入 经纪 投行 资管

自营 信用中信证海通证国泰君广发证中金公中国银国信证东方证财通证兴业证长江证国金证东兴证华安证东吴证方正证浙商证国元证红塔证南京证西部证光大证第一创山西证国海证太平洋华林证天风证中泰证国联证财达证合计

2022Q1-Q3 同比 2022Q1-Q3 同比 2022Q1-Q3 同比 2022Q1-Q3 同比 2022Q1-Q3 同比 2022Q1-Q3 同比498.21 -13.8 87.91 -19.2 62.71 11.1 80.83 -5.8 124.08 -19.4 41.67 -5.0189.38 -45.6 36.30 -17.6 37.57 8.8 16.88 -31.5 1.31 -98.8 47.37 -6.6236.18 -12.2 53.31 -10.6 29.05 9.4 25.97 11.2 44.40 -54.0 20.79 -30.8267.15 -16.3 58.50 -17.6 30.73 28.6 9.36 -34.5 43.56 -53.0 36.51 -16.6175.15 -34.8 49.54 -17.6 4.42 28.6 66.78 -9.2 -0.48 -100.9 30.93 -16.2152.98 -29.8 49.69 -17.2 10.90 -13.5 6.31 -15.2 45.66 -37.9 9.00 -39.2193.93 -10.6 37.28 -17.5 46.57 12.7 10.51 10.6 71.33 -38.4 -3.84 49.5180.57 -27.5 40.67 -15.5 13.84 18.7 9.72 3.7 52.56 -27.7 1.14 -89.4227.03 10.2 45.74 -0.1 45.66 31.6 7.31 1.7 43.15 -22.4 17.80 23.8272.78 4.5 49.49 -26.0 5.14 24.0 3.48 -11.4 48.69 -1.3 40.14 -2.7133.04 -21.7 39.71 -26.1 13.52 0.2 2.30 26.3 37.40 -40.4 13.69 -17.8120.26 -36.2 23.14 -11.6 13.72 13.8 20.54 -26.3 14.16 -38.4 11.47 3.035.45 -23.1 9.12 -8.8 3.39 -25.4 10.55 11.4 0.15 -98.2 5.77 -8.972.21 -48.0 21.68 -19.4 7.43 -24.4 1.08 -40.9 -6.96 -136.4 13.79 6.441.12 -38.1 24.57 -17.0 4.17 -34.4 1.51 -19.3 -11.46 -202.3 16.61 44.125.36 -36.1 13.88 -15.3 1.72 -53.3 0.86 38.5 -1.07 -111.1 9.53 13.840.74 -17.2 12.47 -13.4 13.79 32.4 1.05 29.9 0.88 -93.3 10.34 17.128.03 -26.7 6.02 -22.2 8.64 19.0 1.53 49.7 -2.46 -144.6 10.68 44.724.01 6.1 7.80 -9.8 1.19 5.0 3.46 23.2 5.30 1.6 3.31 -20.611.95 -53.4 5.32 -12.5 1.51 -28.5 0.14 -21.5 -1.11 -109.7 2.56 6.787.18 36.4 13.92 -9.8 8.44 21.0 1.76 63.1 6.58 -62.9 9.04 71.559.05 -8.6 27.37 -23.3 3.37 8.4 1.97 7.1 10.60 97.4 13.24 -18.139.67 -21.9 8.33 -14.9 1.07 -60.4 2.80 90.5 2.37 -83.1 2.04 47.327.19 -53.8 7.10 -20.1 3.80 -11.8 0.56 -21.5 -0.87 -107.8 1.94 -30.5115.84 -4.1 14.58 -7.3 5.21 -39.3 3.35 35.2 6.68 -54.8 5.66 37.638.64 4.2 7.62 -12.0 6.32 82.2 0.70 -4.3 -3.60 -151.1 15.04 13.96.87 -87.5 1.62 -17.5 0.52 -20.8 0.37 -61.2 0.66 -96.0 0.36 2044.922.55 -14.3 7.13 -16.6 0.72 -57.3 5.66 -1.9 1.88 -15.1 5.93 -10.215.30 -27.5 3.79 -32.1 1.90 -9.9 0.24 39.9 2.35 -51.2 6.87 -7.943.65 -8.9 7.66 -16.0 1.79 -26.0 0.41 163.7 11.78 -9.9 -1.44 -170.389.23 -27.5 26.21 -21.8 10.26 -29.5 12.24 81.2 10.31 100.2 16.85 -11.519.12 -20.9 2.95 -17.0 1.88 2.7 7.43 12.2 1.89 -76.6 1.58 19.330.40 5.0 4.60 -16.2 2.72 -13.1 1.19 -10.9 9.56 -18.7 0.68 247.328.02 -28.9 6.62 26.6 1.28 -45.0 1.38 -16.2 2.04 -86.1 3.63 2918.010.01 -21.6 2.96 -20.9 0.69 -49.8 0.93 33.8 3.71 -37.2 1.73 57.510.27 -3.4 4.17 -6.8 0.93 -54.7 0.28 33.8 1.17 373.5 3.17 0.918.27 -37.4 7.63 2.8 7.39 3.6 8.49 76.0 3.78 -69.4 -9.11 -85.114.48 -58.3 4.91 -24.4 1.86 -54.7 0.34 23.1 4.24 -47.2 0.81 -22.874.17 -17.6 29.52 -7.4 7.46 -27.5 4.14 14.7 -2.64 -116.3 16.94 28.420.55 0.0 4.14 -8.5 4.24 35.5 1.33 63.0 9.31 -5.4 0.89 -44.914.35 -26.9 4.63 -14.1 2.45 22.8 0.35 10.0 4.40 -43.8 1.27 178.73,710.38 -21.0 869.58 -16.4 429.98 5.4 336.10 -3.9 595.28 -52.1 436.35 -5.8，上市券商营业支出幅于营收降幅，利润较年1下降71c。41上券合营出263亿同1幅于业入（3%，支出相对刚性，因而归母净利润降幅大于营收，前三季度净利润为75较年降41c营支中要项包两，一是务管为19元同8，费为44较去年同升62c二信用值为39亿同比6较年同期小增加。各类商差异大，大商中中信、通、金建投、河等，用减损失同大幅降，在几大计提股权质押等资本中介业务带来的减值损失之后，221年大幅降低的基础上（以信券例200年大计信减失6581亿而2021年仅提899亿，减少863，年三度继大下，体现资质夯程高。图表：上市券商2223营业支出及成本率情况营业支出2022Q1-Q3同比业务及管理2022Q1-Q3费同比管理费2022Q1-Q3率同比变化信用减值损2022Q1-Q3失同比信用减值损失2022Q1-Q3率同比变化中信证券274.20-19.2201.66-0.640.55.370.89-94.00.2-2.40海通证券114.31-36.482.88-20.143.813.984.53-70.22.4-1.97145.3116.3120.371.351.06.80-3.99-12.6-1.70.01国泰君安160.74-5.391.24-13.234.21.22-2.02-162.2-0.8-1.78广发证券106.48-28.497.72-21.155.89.71-2.04-150.2-1.2-2.6783.97-27.565.50-21.842.84.393.8428.12.51.13中金公司120.81-4.4119.55-6.961.62.450.29-109.90.11.48129.63-19.465.70-2.236.49.4110.86168.96.04.39144.7326.683.0320.136.63.031.78-306.80.81.20中国银河200.6119.672.060.926.4-0.942.15-519.60.80.98国信证券81.1114.057.01-16.242.92.853.93-155.23.07.13东方证券100.47-27.958.55-10.548.713.978.80244.77.35.96财通证券24.18-11.224.32-11.168.69.23-0.44-9.3-1.2-0.19兴业证券44.44-44.836.36-33.550.310.950.55-26.80.80.22长江证券31.03-16.928.73-17.269.917.67-0.79117.6-1.9-1.3721.604.619.05-5.075.124.552.24903.78.88.27国金证券30.324.829.431.972.213.550.60-391.81.51.90东兴证券21.62-12.516.7310.859.720.210.70296.82.52.04华安证券12.8325.110.4416.043.53.72-0.26-545.3-1.1-1.3311.44-24.410.15-30.485.028.050.31-1820.92.62.71东吴证券72.0685.626.9311.230.9-7.000.20-36.50.2-0.26方正证券37.23-3.236.532.261.96.490.21-90.60.4-3.0936.566.320.29-2.951.210.010.45-175.61.12.3321.90-47.813.37-25.149.218.820.12-181.80.40.69浙商证券100.670.723.82-19.420.6-3.910.25-141.10.20.73国元证券24.3620.515.37-10.039.8-6.27-1.36-1091.4-3.5-3.90红塔证券8.39-79.56.00-15.387.374.38-0.44-26.7-6.3-5.2513.69-5.313.59-6.960.34.78-0.07-77.3-0.30.87南京证券8.71-10.48.51-11.055.610.290.03-187.30.20.38西部证券36.696.316.593.338.04.490.24-231.80.60.93光大证券46.38-42.539.16-7.343.99.57-2.85-253.1-3.2-4.70第一创业15.43-2.515.050.878.716.970.12-81.20.6-1.97山西证券25.8420.613.992.346.0-1.200.04-84.90.1-0.82国海证券22.62-18.314.84-12.653.09.870.55-83.51.9-6.47太平洋10.7729.77.55-9.675.510.033.14-2379.131.432.47华林证券5.574.35.544.553.94.100.01-161.10.10.15天风证券18.87-9.718.02-16.098.725.120.31-137.71.74.5413.42-52.410.86-21.875.035.041.502.010.46.14中泰证券61.848.042.56-7.057.46.543.75-1877.05.05.28国联证券12.536.112.328.659.94.710.08-75.60.4-1.17财达证券9.34-20.77.67-24.253.41.930.74-149.85.112.66合计2,462.68-11.01,659.07-8.344.76.2238.956.51.00.27，格局：集中度在1被动提升之回，但比前几年仍提升行业集中度经今年季度自营对业绩冲带的集中度被动提升之后三季度行业集中度较1有所回落但仍高于019021年以家上券合数分测行前5前0市券的收归母净利集的5R0别为405645（s201年分为25、21%归母利的R、0别为447、725（s021年别为271676。头部券商整体经营健优势凸显，是务全面平市周期带来收波，是较推进自投策多元、以及益投去方向大客类品极布场衍等非向业，体现良的表力及资摆能，而滑市周波。图表：营收的行业集度提升；% 图表：归母净利润的业集中度提升；%，注以1上券合数分母

，注以1上券合数分母经纪业务：股基成交下滑7，经纪业务收同比6%经纪业务2022前三季度场环境前三股基交额同比-7Q3单季度同比-26、环比+72022三基交额190万元同-7其中Q3单度成交额6万元同-6，+股交易同下是022市风偏下二级场现迷，市场交活跃度降，外，今新发基下滑显，因代销融产品收入计降明，此拖累券经纪务现不佳另外，预计净佣金率继续呈现滑势因为021年券代理卖券务收入（含席租赁为1,8.2，比增长15.3因此我们算年行净金万2.较200继下约2幅为也是021年业收入速于基交增速原。图表：股基日均成交；亿元 图表：行业净佣金率221年继续下滑；%， ，券协，41家上市券商前三季度现经纪业务收入70亿元同比642022前三41家商有2家纪务入为国风，其余均为负增长。头部商经纪业务收入同比普下滑150，下相对较小的是建投和华泰；国海和天风逆势增长，同比分别266%、28。图表1：上市券商023经纪业务收入亿元，营业收2022Q1-Q3入同比经纪2022Q1-Q3同比中信证券498.21-13.887.91-19.2海通证券189.38-45.636.30-17.6236.18-12.253.31-10.6国泰君安267.15-16.358.50-17.6广发证券175.15-34.849.54-17.6152.98-29.849.69-17.2中金公司193.93-10.637.28-17.5180.57-27.540.67-15.5227.0310.245.74-0.1中国银河272.784.549.49-26.0国信证券133.04-21.739.71-26.1东方证券120.26-36.223.14-11.6财通证券35.45-23.19.12-8.8兴业证券72.21-48.021.68-19.4长江证券41.12-38.124.57-17.025.36-36.113.88-15.3国金证券40.74-17.212.47-13.4东兴证券28.03-26.76.02-22.2华安证券24.016.17.80-9.811.95-53.45.32-12.5东吴证券87.1836.413.92-9.8方正证券59.05-8.627.37-23.339.67-21.98.33-14.927.19-53.87.10-20.1浙商证券115.84-4.114.58-7.3国元证券38.644.27.62-12.0红塔证券6.87-87.51.62-17.522.55-14.37.13-16.6南京证券15.30-27.53.79-32.1西部证券43.65-8.97.66-16.0光大证券89.23-27.526.21-21.8第一创业19.12-20.92.95-17.0山西证券30.405.04.60-16.2国海证券28.02-28.96.6226.6太平洋10.01-21.62.96-20.9华林证券10.27-3.44.17-6.8天风证券18.27-37.47.632.814.48-58.34.91-24.4中泰证券74.17-17.629.52-7.4国联证券20.550.04.14-8.5财达证券14.35-26.94.63-14.1合计3,710.38-21.0869.58-16.4，投资业务：投资收益同比下滑1pct至12，投资收入同比2%投资业务022前三季度市场环境。今年前三季沪深300数下跌23分度13分别是14562152在2之后又重下，此体券商资务3压较明。外债市表现体稳中总价指前季小涨06。图表：国内股票指数0223呈现下行；% 图表1：国内债券指数022Q3呈现下行；%， ，前三季度投资收入同比，主要系市场波动下投资收益率大幅下滑测算41家券商前三季合计投资收益率为12（未年化，同比下滑17pc1上券三季合投业收（注营务入=投资收益-对联营企业、合营企业的投资收益+公允价值变动损益）为595亿，5资资规：营产规模交性融资产权他投资他益具资合计5152亿，同比长52我算41家商计资率为1（年，同比滑17pc；见，场行投收率影负止三季有9家商营出现损总拖公整体绩。分季度看13单季投资收入分别为24738亿元单季投资收益（未年分别为040903而沪深300指数1分别45621523指数下跌超但券商单季投资收入远好于，预计是市场波动之下，风险偏好下降，主动调整资产臵结构以及自营敞口如调降股票自营规仓多配臵低风险固收益类资产，加大客需类衍生品发展等。单季同看，3单季投资入18元同3%环1今年3深00数跌5，而年3深00指上涨0而年3投资比大幅下滑。图表1：上市券商投业务收入规模及收率况；亿元，%亿元，2022Q3同比投资收入环比2022Q1-Q3同比投资资产规模2022Q3 同比投资收益率（单季度，未2022Q3 同比年化）环比投资收益率（当2022Q1-Q3年累计，未年化）同比中信证券29.46-25.9-51.8124.08-19.46,294.8910.40.5-0.28-0.491.9-0.92海通证券-5.61-114.3-116.91.31-98.82,615.08-5.3-0.2-1.69-1.460.0-3.986.85-72.1-64.344.40-54.04,556.6715.10.2-0.51-0.281.0-1.58国泰君安7.75-70.0-77.343.56-53.03,820.1512.70.2-0.57-0.721.2-1.63广发证券-6.98-161.5-139.1-0.48-100.93,012.7743.6-0.3-0.81-0.960.0-2.4915.06-27.5-47.845.66-37.93,077.06-3.40.5-0.27-0.431.5-1.21中金公司20.89-38.7-41.371.33-38.43,550.302.50.6-0.47-0.402.0-1.608.75-66.8-75.852.56-27.73,359.5715.80.3-0.73-0.861.6-1.1513.82-33.5-39.943.15-22.42,281.3318.20.6-0.46-0.462.0-0.96中国银河14.67-23.8-48.348.69-1.33,415.4545.60.5-0.43-0.511.6-0.73国信证券9.89-64.1-62.337.40-40.42,262.8525.70.5-1.23-0.791.8-2.08东方证券10.06172.1-4.514.16-38.41,718.566.50.60.38-0.040.9-0.60财通证券0.09-87.7-98.00.15-98.2550.4230.30.0-0.17-0.940.0-1.98兴业证券-4.97-659.2-148.2-6.96-136.4989.3523.8-0.5-0.66-1.69-0.8-3.25长江证券-6.25-316.4-424.0-11.46-202.3804.7119.4-0.8-1.33-1.12-1.6-3.42-0.67-124.3-118.0-1.07-111.1302.39-6.3-0.2-1.08-1.35-0.3-3.36国金证券-0.31-106.4-108.10.88-93.3315.8525.9-0.1-2.11-1.430.3-5.19东兴证券-0.73-452.8-137.7-2.46-144.6516.9411.6-0.1-0.12-0.53-0.5-1.70华安证券1.90216.9-46.85.301.6352.916.40.50.33-0.491.5-0.32-1.10-177.8-128.8-1.11-109.7432.228.4-0.3-0.62-1.18-0.3-3.14东吴证券2.20-42.2-64.76.58-62.9592.0131.00.4-0.44-0.711.2-2.73方正证券1.563021.9-81.810.6097.4731.8140.40.20.21-0.961.50.311.28-76.0-76.42.37-83.1353.532.80.4-1.35-1.310.7-3.83-0.23-105.8-105.4-0.87-107.8417.1028.4-0.1-1.44-1.14-0.2-4.10浙商证券2.97-55.2-23.76.68-54.8451.212.40.6-1.14-0.251.5-2.53国元证券-1.61-151.2-131.1-3.60-151.1706.3644.1-0.3-1.01-1.13-0.6-2.26红塔证券-4.57-212.3-131.90.66-96.0277.5628.4-1.7-3.51-6.210.2-7.320.65-57.5-31.11.88-15.1151.673.60.4-0.77-0.181.2-0.52南京证券0.87-14.7-48.82.35-51.2266.513.50.3-0.13-0.320.9-1.28西部证券4.6448.4-32.011.78-9.9615.0152.80.8-0.09-0.392.1-1.71光大证券4.51250.6-32.110.31100.21,114.9232.30.50.81-0.251.00.43第一创业0.14-96.0-93.01.89-76.6206.5417.20.1-2.01-1.041.0-3.79山西证券3.48-13.3-20.09.56-18.7435.0723.61.0-0.38-0.362.6-1.30国海证券0.28-95.5-91.72.04-86.1365.01105.60.1-2.18-0.850.6-4.75太平洋0.53-83.2-78.43.71-37.252.36-32.90.9-2.81-2.926.1-0.79华林证券0.82197.8432.61.17373.5152.7067.4 0.8 1.630.671.20.93天风证券2.61-46.5378.63.78-69.4419.89-6.60.6-0.630.500.9-2.282.63-31.1171.24.24-47.2218.83-19.21.1-0.360.731.8-1.29中泰证券-2.31-151.2-135.1-2.64-116.3772.711.4 -0.3 -0.89-1.11-0.3-2.49国联证券3.60-24.60.49.31-5.4409.6032.90.9-1.000.072.4-1.59财达证券1.51-48.3-35.74.40-43.8212.340.50.7-0.83-0.372.1-2.05合计138.13-63.0-71.1595.28-52.153,152.2015.20.3-1.35-0.671.2-1.72，司报投行业务：投行是唯正增长业务，投行入比54%股权融资2223市场境3单季度股权融资模538亿元同比增长29%。其中首发、增发、配股、可转债、可交换债规模分别为1737032/014375亿元，同比增速分别为7880773422183中PO发模比略同益于市回，发模比大增。债券融资2223市场境3单季度券商承销债券规模达29万亿元，同比增2。主要是地方政府债、企业债、定向工具、BS比下较所。图表1：202前三季度股权融资规模及增情亿元，%

图表1：202前三季债券承销规模及增情亿元，% ， ，图表1：近年股权融规及增速情亿元% 图表1近年来债券承规模及增速情况亿元%， ，投行业务成为1唯一合计收入正增长的业。41家上券商202前三季合投业净入430亿，54。总而，型券商情好中型商头部商信金建投海通国、华泰势为固稳前，拉与二队差距中券中，投行务入现快长的国、联国等。图表1：上市券商投业务收入情况；亿，%亿元，营业收入 投行2022Q1-Q3同比2022Q1-Q3同比中信证券498.21-13.862.7111.1海通证券189.38-45.637.578.8236.18-12.229.059.4国泰君安267.15-16.330.7328.6广发证券175.15-34.84.4228.6152.98-29.810.90-13.5中金公司193.93-10.646.5712.7180.57-27.513.8418.7227.0310.245.6631.6中国银河272.784.55.1424.0国信证券133.04-21.713.520.2东方证券120.26-36.213.7213.8财通证券35.45-23.13.39-25.4兴业证券72.21-48.07.43-24.4长江证券41.12-38.14.17-34.425.36-36.11.72-53.3国金证券40.74-17.213.7932.4东兴证券28.03-26.78.6419.0华安证券24.016.11.195.011.95-53.41.51-28.5东吴证券87.1836.48.4421.0方正证券59.05-8.63.378.439.67-21.91.07-60.427.19-53.83.80-11.8浙商证券115.84-4.15.21-39.3国元证券38.644.26.3282.2红塔证券6.87-87.50.52-20.822.55-14.30.72-57.3南京证券15.30-27.51.90-9.9西部证券43.65-8.91.79-26.0光大证券89.23-27.510.26-29.5第一创业19.12-20.91.882.7山西证券30.405.02.72-13.1国海证券28.02-28.91.28-45.0太平洋10.01-21.60.69-49.8华林证券10.27-3.40.93-54.7天风证券18.27-37.47.393.614.48-58.31.86-54.7中泰证券74.17-17.67.46-27.5国联证券20.550.04.2435.5财达证券14.35-26.92.4522.8合计 3,710.38 -21.0 429.98 5.4 ，司报资管业务：集合资管品占比提升，资管入比39%资管业务222前三季度市场环境。222前季受到场行响预计主管理的合资规模增放缓，短期场调整改资行业中长期上趋势未来商资管构优化主动理能力升仍主律。截至222，券商集资管规模大幅增长定资管持续收缩。基金协最披至221券资规据，商管模合计78万元较初47降幅前年年20所缓其中合向项管规分为363706万亿年分别25%80%5代通道务定资持下降集资占比提升。图表1：券商资管行业模情况；亿元基业会41家上市券商资管业务入合计36亿元，同比39。头部商中中信广前优稳，分实资业收入8167元同分别58%92现稳健速为出券包括风北、东吴东、联西等，现快长。图表2：上市券商资业收入；亿元，%亿元，营业收入 资管2022Q1-Q3同比2022Q1-Q3同比中信证券498.21-13.880.83-5.8海通证券189.38-45.616.88-31.5236.18-12.225.9711.2国泰君安267.15-16.39.36-34.5广发证券175.15-34.866.78-9.2152.98-29.86.31-15.2中金公司193.93-10.610.5110.6180.57-27.59.723.7227.0310.27.311.7中国银河272.784.53.48-11.4国信证券133.04-21.72.3026.3东方证券120.26-36.220.54-26.3财通证券35.45-23.110.5511.4兴业证券72.21-48.01.08-40.9长江证券41.12-38.11.51-19.325.36-36.10.8638.5国金证券40.74-17.21.0529.9东兴证券28.03-26.71.5349.7华安证券24.016.13.4623.211.95-53.40.14-21.5东吴证券87.1836.41.7663.1方正证券59.05-8.61.977.139.67-21.92.8090.527.19-53.80.56-21.5浙商证券115.84-4.13.3535.2国元证券38.644.20.70-4.3红塔证券6.87-87.50.37-61.222.55-14.35.66-1.9南京证券15.30-27.50.2439.9西部证券43.65-8.90.41163.7光大证券89.23-27.512.2481.2第一创业19.12-20.97.4312.2山西证券30.405.01.19-10.9国海证券28.02-28.91.38-16.2太平洋10.01-21.60.9333.8华林证券10.27-3.40.2833.8天风证券18.27-37.48.4976.014.48-58.30.3423.1中泰证券74.17-17.64.1414.7国联证券20.550.01.3363.0财达证券14.35-26.90.3510.0合计 3,710.38 -21.0 336.10 -3.9，司报信用业务：两融余额比下滑，利息净收同77%资本中介业务02前三季度市场环境。、融资券余额同比165截至0223，市融券额为154亿，同比165，41，中资额14亿，比14，比44，融券额47亿，比94环12。、股票质押规模继续收缩截至2023市质押数05股初低3市质押股数占总股比52%，较年初降低035个百分点，市场质押市值3022元年降低274降要股指整下形总体而言股票质股数在总股占比、票质市值都续下，也是09开的趋势。图表2：融资融券余及融券占比；亿元% 图表2：市场质押股数占总股本比；亿股%， ，利息净收入同比771利息净收入同7741上券前三季度计现息入436亿元同比58%头部券商中利息净收入前五依次为通中信银河国、广，利净收分为474240731亿。图表2：上市券商两及股质押规模及利净入情况；亿元，%亿元，营业收入 信用2022Q1-Q3同比2022Q1-Q3同比中信证券498.21-13.841.67-5.0海通证券189.38-45.647.37-6.6236.18-12.220.79-30.8国泰君安267.15-16.336.51-16.6广发证券175.15-34.830.93-16.2152.98-29.89.00-39.2中金公司193.93-10.6-3.8449.5180.57-27.51.14-89.4227.0310.217.8023.8中国银河272.784.540.14-2.7国信证券133.04-21.713.69-17.8东方证券120.26-36.211.473.0财通证券35.45-23.15.77-8.9兴业证券72.21-48.013.796.4长江证券41.12-38.116.6144.125.36-36.19.5313.8国金证券40.74-17.210.3417.1东兴证券28.03-26.710.6844.7华安证券24.016.13.31-20.611.95-53.42.566.7东吴证券87.1836.49.0471.5方正证券59.05-8.613.24-18.139.67-21.92.0447.327.19-53.81.94-30.5浙商证券115.84-4.15.6637.6国元证券38.644.215.0413.9红塔证券6.87-87.50.362044.922.55-14.35.93-10.2南京证券15.30-27.56.87-7.9西部证券43.65-8.9-1.44-170.3光大证券89.23-27.516.85-11.5第一创业19.12-20.91.5819.3山西证券30.405.00.68247.3国海证券28.02-28.93.632918.0太平洋10.01-21.61.7357.5华林证券10.27-3.43.170.9天风证券18.27-37.4-9.11-85.114.48-58.30.81-22.8中泰证券74.17-17.616.9428.4国联证券20.550.00.89-44.9财达证券14.35-26.91.27178.7合计 3,710.38 -21.0 436.35 -5.8 ，司报二、保险行业2三季报分析利润：归母净利润同193，主要是投资承以及准备金多提前三季度上市险企母利润合计同比193，3单季同比239。国寿平安太华三季归净润别比35863、1065663单分别242315295998。预计，保单母净润大幅长与财盈利升有关而新利润显著滑要投收减少致。归因来看，净利润下滑主要两方面，一是股市波动带来投资收益承压二是50曲线下移多提备金。、股市波动带来资收益承压：季度深300指跌2分度13分14562、152在2之又下跌因总上资端3承比明。另外债表总平稳中债全指前季小幅涨0十年期债益低震250曲线下移多提备金前季度750天曲较初了1bs右险普多备金国、安、太华计计更税前润影分为27亿77亿元、82元9元。图表2：上市险企2三季度归母净利润情；元%归母净利润（亿元）3Q213Q22同比2021Q1-Q32022Q1-Q3同比中国人寿75.257-24.2484.9311.2-35.8中国平安236.3161.9-31.5816.4764.6-6.3中国太保53.869.729.5226.9202.7-10.6新华保险14.10.03-99.8119.551.9-56.6合计379.4288.63-23.91647.71330.4-19.3，司报平安前三季度营运利润（T）增速略放缓，寿险仍是最大贡献，产险、资管受投资波影较大。1、平安前三季度T同比38，较上半年速略放缓。安前三度运润23亿383季度运润79亿元同比28集前三度母利为5亿者68亿元的异主一股动带的期资动约291元二是50日曲下带的现变动约17元。2、从构成来看平安寿仍是T最大贡献来，产险、资管受资波动影响。平安团三季寿险产险银、资、科板营运比别7%2165324%3单分别15、17、26、9、3。险T长，要受情响实际赔较低，及继率有所善，营经验于假设带来运差增以免收升带有税下降险是T最贡献来（比69，提升约pc银正贡献显产、资管均受投波影，另科板上年现亦弱。图表2：平安集团各分归母营运利润情况百元，%归母营运利润2021320223同比增长20213占比20223占比72,70185,05617.0%61.2%69.0%13,22110,405-21.3%11.1%8.4%16,88721,24725.8%14.2%17.2%11,8695,582-53.0%10.0%4.5%7,4375,656-23.9%6.3%4.6%-3,378-4,65937.9%-2.8%-3.8%集团合并118,737123,2873.8%100.0%100.0%，司报寿险：NV降幅总收窄，人力队伍结优产能提升B平太保V降幅收窄太保3单季V增速转正国寿BV降幅有所扩大要“先开门、再收官的门红节奏影响。、BV表现平保前度V别154266、378其平安3季BV同比01保则现季速转正同25拆分看体新期费降不前季度国寿、新华首年期缴分别同比02、146%，太保个险新单期缴比249，安人新单比15。而BVmargn比滑，主要产结中蓄占比升长保型比下。图表2：上市险企V表现；%单季NBV同比累计NBV同比1Q222Q223Q222022Q12022H2022Q1-Q3平安-33.7-17.0-20.1-33.7-28.5-26.6国寿-14.3-13.8-15.4太保2.5-45.3-37.8，司报国寿前三季度BV同比54降幅较上半年38扩大16c，主要是受开门红准备节影响。因国采“开门收”略9月备门影个销且公层于0月旬右动开门红此3单度V上年幅所新单保费：前三季度新单保费73亿元同63较2H提升2pc其，3单新保费320元，73。新单期交：前三季度首年期交保费914亿元，同比02，较22H提升0p；3单首期交15元同比64。前三季度十年期及以首年期交保费3亿元，同比49，较2H升05c，中3单季年及上首年交85亿，比6。平安：、BV降幅较报略收窄。三度V同比66可比口径同189降较上年的285有窄13别同比33716920拆分来看首费同比129前三度BVargn比49pct至25主是保型品售较弱带的品构化致。太保：、Q3新单及NBV增速显著改善。前三季度V75.5亿元，同比-%较H的-%收窄Q3单季同比2.%单季度NV增速由负转正拆分看前三季度新单保费降幅低于NV降幅价值率仍承压前三季度太保个险新单保费7亿元同比-%Q3单季同比3.9%。个险新单期缴保费1亿元同比-%Q3单季同比4.5%我们认为太保Q3新单及NBV增速显著改善，除了去年同期基数低之外，是建立在队伍规模企稳基础上队伍结构优（Q3核心人力占比同比7.pct队伍质量改善（举绩率、人均FC、人均收入同比提升，核心人力月收入近0元超社平工资%另外业务品质显著改善个人寿险客户3个月保单继续率%，同比7.pct。图表2：平安寿险单季度B；亿元 图表2：太保保费收入结构情况；百万元%公公 公公，代理人：人力规模降幅趋缓，预计人均产能有所提升。国寿、平安末代人模为720万488人分较初12287，较年中35、60人力构遍化如保3心力比同比7pc以部企人产明提平安理均V同比超22，保人能23别比194。国寿人力降幅季收预计下半年增率逐稳定13个月留存率逐步提高个险人力幅逐季收窄01末22212023分别82人46万、2万，年22%较年35总体看，人规模降呈逐收窄态，另外我们计人力年中幅老七寿公中于小预计国寿增员率半年开始逐步稳定13个月留存率逐步高国寿自19鼎改以，一坚“中固量，中求效的队发展策，坚持效队驱动业，队在七家险司相稳。平安：代理人规模较中下滑6，队伍结构继续优化。三季代数量88人较年初87中6伍结持优新增人“比升103pc理人均BV同比超22。太保：1、队伍规模企稳基础上，队伍结构优化（Q3核心人力占比同比7.2ct队伍质量改（举绩率人均FC人均收入同比提升核心人力月收入近0元超社平工资%另外业务品质显著改善个人寿险客户3个月保单继续率%同比7.pct队伍优增优育初见成效，新人产能大幅提升。太保新人产能QQ3分别同比5%%。今年招募的4万多人，以有工作经验的人为主（%，主要是个体工商户和私营企业民营企业和外资白领公务员和事业单位留存率大幅提（同比1.7%图表2：国寿、平安人规模；万人，司报财险：车险保费增速升，综合成本率同显改善3车险保费增速升合成本率同比显著善人保平太保前季保分同比1021425较半增均有提升。其中，车险增速分别为71、75、78，而二季度人保、平安、太保车险增速分别为+2.8%、+4.4%、+4.2%，因此车险增速明显提非增分为142195852安太保前季综成率别为96979、978分别2pc06c1pc保3单季保润比962们计太保、人综合成率改，主要益于三度自灾害较带来赔支出降平与业势反，要到保务影。2022Q1-Q3保费同比增速人