抓住全球油气行业的价值：现在准备-为未知的未来-麦肯锡

精选优质文档-----倾情为你奉上精选优质文档-----倾情为你奉上专心---专注---专业专心---专注---专业精选优质文档-----倾情为你奉上专心---专注---专业麦肯锡2014年7月抓住全球油气行业的价值:现在准备，为未知的未来Capturingvalueinglobalgas:PreparenowforanuncertainfutureThereishugeuncertaintyabouthowglobalgasmarketswillevolve,buttheextentofthevalueatstakemakesitimperativeforliquifiednaturalgassuppliersandbuyerstoactnow.Unforeseeneventshavedisruptedthegasmarketinthelasteightyearsbutparadoxicallylentitadegreeofstability—forthetimebeing,atleast.Theshale-gasboomintheUnitedStates,rapidlyincreasingAsiandemand,andtheEuropeaneconomiccrisishavedrivenhugepricediscrepanciesamongregionalmarkets.Theinfluenceofthesethreedisruptionsisnotlikelytowanebeforetheturnofthedecade.Butthenwhat?Enormousvalueisatstake.DependingonhowfactorssuchasAsiandemand,oilprices,orNorthAmericanexportsplayout,ouranalysissuggeststhatvaluecreationintheglobalgasindustryin2030couldbeanywherebetween$310billionand$725billion,comparedwith$340billionin2011.This$415billiondifferenceinpotentialoutcomesinasingleyearsuggestsverydifferentprospectsnotonlyfortheindustryasawholebutalsofordifferentparticipants,asthevaluegainswillbynomeansbeevenlyspread.Liquefiednaturalgas(LNG),whileonlyaccountingfor10percentoftheglobalgasmarketcurrently,willbeakeydeterminantofmarketpricesandeventualvaluecreation,asitistheonlysupplysourcemobileenoughtoplugsupplyanddemandgapsininternationalmarkets.Atthemoment,itisinshortsupply.Butbecauseuncertaintyaboutfuturepriceshasmadebuyersreluctanttosignnewlong-termcontractsundertraditionaltermsthatlinkgaspricestooilprices,developersofgasreservesoutsideNorthAmericahavebeenhesitanttosanctionnewLNGfacilities,particularlyasLNGprojectcostsarerisingrapidly.Thismayseemprudentinthefaceofsomuchuncertainty.Butbydoingnothing,LNGdevelopersriskforgoingfutureprofitablesupplyopportunities,andLNGbuyersriskextendingthecurrentsupplyshortage.Whilethereisnodenyingthechallengesthatuncertaintyposesintheindustry,thosemostlikelytoprosperwillbetheparticipantsthatunderstandtheuncertainties,anticipatemarketdevelopments,andbuildrobuststrategiescapableofadaptingtowhatthefutureholds.DiscontinuitiesupendingthemarketOverthepastdecade,regionalgasmarketshavebecomemuchmoreconnected,withthenumberofLNGorpiperoutescarryingoverfivebillioncubicmetersperannum(bcma)—morethandoublingbetween2001and2011.Yetdespiteincreasedlinkages,gaspricesinregionalmarketshavediverged(Exhibit1).Threemarketdisruptionsexplainthis.Exhibit1附录1:Regionalgaspriceshavediverged.地区气价分叉。地区气价(美元/MMBtu1)布伦特2布伦特2日本3欧洲4美国5来源:Bloomberg(彭博);FACTS;ISIS;NewsBase(资讯库)InNorthAmerica,rapidgrowthinshale-gasproductionhasledtofouryearsofoversupplyandplummetinggasprices.Between2008and2012,productiongrewatanannualcompoundrateof29percent.However,gasdemandfailedtokeeppaceasconsumerswereslowtoswitchfromotherfuels,energy-efficiencymeasuresoffsetdemandgrowth,andexportshavenotbeenanoption,sinceitcantakefiveyearstobuildanLNGexportterminalandacquirethenecessarypermits.Consequently,gaspricesinNorthAmericafellfrom$8.9permillionBritishthermalunits(MMBtu)to$2.8perMMBtuoverthesameperiod.InAsia,LNGpriceshavebeenboostedbyeconomicgrowth,coupledwithJapan’sdecisionin2011toshutdownitsnuclearcapacityfollowingtheFukushimadisaster.Japanesegasdemandgrewbymorethan20percentbetween2010and2012,from95bcmato117bcma.AsJapanhasnodomesticgas,thisallhadtobeimportedasLNG.Finally,inEurope,aneconomicslowdown—combinedwithenergy-efficiencyimprovementsandtheavailabilityofcheapcoal—contributedtoanannualdeclineingasdemandof1.6percentbetween2005and2012.Thisisinmarkedcontrasttoannualgrowthof2.7percentovertheprevious15years.Atthesametime,liquidityontradedgasmarketsroseasbuyerswhofoundtheyhadcontractedexcesscapacitysoughttoselliton.Asaresult,pricesinEuropehavefallen,breakingthetraditionallinkwithoilprices.Gettingtogripswithlonger-termuncertaintyTheimpactofallthreedevelopmentsislikelytopersistinthemediumterm(seesidebar“Whysupplywilllikelyremaintightthisdecade”).Butthelonger-termoutlookisfarlessclear.Fourfactorswillbemajordriversoffuturemarketdynamicsandprices.SidebarWhysupplywilllikelyremaintightthisdecadeThepaceandvolumeofNorthAmericanLNGexportsNorthAmericangasdevelopersareeagertoexporttheirplentifulsupplyofcheapLNGtohigher-pricedmarkets.Bytheendof2013,theyhadappliedforexportpermitsformorethan380bcma—equivalenttoalloftheworld’scurrentliquefactioncapacity.Ifevenone-thirdofthiscapacitywerebuilt,itwouldhaveasignificantimpactonglobalLNGprices,threateningtheviabilityofhigher-costcapacityadditionsincountriessuchasAustraliaandRussiaandinAfrica,asshowninExhibit2.NorthAmericanexportscouldbehighlyprofitableatrecentLNGpricesof$18perMMBtubutcouldstillturnaprofiteveniftheyfelltoaslowas$12perMMBtu.Exhibit2附录2IncreasedLNGexportsfromNorthAmericawouldoutcompetehigh-costsupplies.不确定生产范围LNG产能递增,mtpa税后LNG不确定生产范围LNG产能递增,mtpa税后LNG1平准价格(美元/MMBtu2)北美液化天然气(LNG)所需出口递增产能:高中无非亚澳洲俄其他Thereisuncertaintyaboutjusthowmuchexportcapacitywillgetbuiltforthreereasons.First,itisuncleartowhatextentexportpermitswillbegranted,astheUSgovernmentmaychoosetoshieldthedomesticeconomyfromthehighergaspricesthatcouldresultfromlarge-scaleLNGexports.(Some90percentofplannedNorthAmericanexportcapacityisintheUnitedStates;only10percentisinCanada.)Permitsfor80bcmahavebeengrantedtodate,butthegovernmenthasnotyetindicatedwhetheritwillallowfurthercapacitytobeexported.Second,evenifmoreLNGexportswerepermitted,itisuncertaintowhatextentdemandwouldmatchpotentialsupply.InEurope,Northpipedgasimports.InSouthKoreaandJapan,alargeshareofLNGdemandiscoveredbycontractsthatextendbeyond2030.AndpotentialimportersofanynationalitymaychoosetolimittheproportionofNorthAmericanLNGtheyimportgivenconcernsaboutoverdependenceonanysinglesupplier.Third,evenifmoreexportswerepermittedandmatchedbydemand,thereisariskthattheinvestmentrequiredtodeliversomuchnewliquefactioncapacitywouldpushupcoststoapointwheretheywouldbecomeuncompetitivewithLNGproductionelsewhere.Asia’sfast-growingeconomieswillbethemaindriversofgrowthinglobalgasdemandinthenextdecade.ForecastsfromtheInternationalEnergyAgencyshowdemandinAsiancountriesthatarenotpartoftheOrganisationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopmentgrowingby4.5percentayearbetween2010and2035.Thisimpliesthatthisgroupof11countries,whichincludesChina,India,andIndonesia,wouldseedemandrisefrom350bcmain2012to870bcmain2030,accountingformorethanone-thirdoftotalglobalgrowthingasdemandinthatperiod.Yetlong-termforecastsofAsiandemandareuncertain,dependentastheyareoneconomicgrowth,newinfrastructuretolinkcoastalsupplieswithinlandcustomers,andthedevelopmentofmarketsforgasasatransportfuel.Ouranalysissuggestsgasdemandin2030couldbeaslowas660bcmaifeconomicgrowthdisappointsandinfrastructurebuildoutisslow,oritcouldreachasmuchas1,120bcmaifgrowthisstrong,infrastructureplentiful,andgaswidelyadoptedasatransportfuel.HowmuchofAsiangas-demandgrowthwillneedtobesuppliedbyLNGimportsishighlydependentontheextenttowhichChinabecomesabletomeetitsownneedsthroughdevelopmentofitsshale-gasreserves.Developmentisstillatanearlystage,andproductioninChinaisunlikelytoincreaseasrapidlyasitdidintheUnitedStates,asChinahaslesssubsurfacedataavailable.Thiswillextendthetimeneededtoexplore,appraise,anddevelopreserves.Moreover,theshaleidentifiedsofarisdeeperundergroundthanintheUnitedStates(fourtosixkilometers,asopposedtotwotofourkilometers)andlocatedinsiteswithdifficultterrainthatareoftenhighlypopulated.TheChinesegovernmenthassetatargetforshale-gasproductionofbetween60bcmaand100bcmaby2020.LNGsupplyfromAustralia,EastAfrica,MiddleEast,andRussiaAustralia,EastAfrica,theMiddleEast,andRussiahavesomeofthelargestgasresourcesavailableforsupplyafterNorthAmerica.Ourprojectionssuggesttheycouldpotentiallysupplyalmost280bcmaby2030.Buthere,too,actualsupplyandtheextenttowhichitwouldaffectglobalmarketsisuncertain.FutureAustralianandRussianLNGprojectsfacehighcostsandthereforedependonAsianLNGpricesremaininghighinordertobecommerciallyviable.Meanwhile,gas-resourceholdersinEastAfricaareseekinglong-termcontractslinkedtothecurrenthighpriceofoilbeforecommittingtonewLNGfacilities.Asmentioned,fewbuyersarewillingtocommittothesetermstoday.Thereisalsolonger-termuncertaintyaboutthebehavioroflower-costproducersintheMiddleEast,whichhavethepotentialtosupplylargeamountsofgastoChina,India,andSoutheastAsia.Todate,however,Qatar’smoratoriumonfurthergasexports,strongdomestic-demandgrowthinSaudiArabia,andIran’spoliticalisolationhavemeanttheseopportunitieshavegoneunexploited.Butthingscanchange.ThepriceofoilMorethan75percentofallAsiangasimportsarepricedatlevelscontractuallylinkedtooilprices.Futureoilpricesareinherentlyuncertain,dependentastheyareonfactorssuchastechnologicaldevelopments,globaleconomicgrowth,andthepricingstrategiesanddisciplineofOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountriesproducers.Ifoilpricesfall,AsiangaspricescoulddroptowardthecostofNorthAmericangasdeliveriestoAsia.Loweroilpriceswouldalsoreducethecostofgasproductionandliquefactionasthemarkettosupplygoodsandservicestooilandgasproducerswouldalsoloosen.Futureindustryvaluediffersbyasmuchas$415billionToassessthepotentialimpactoftheseuncertainties,wemodeledfourscenarios.Theydonotpresumetopredictthefuture.Whattheyshowquiteclearly,however,ishowfourplausiblefuturesyieldverydifferentvalues,andhowthosevaluesaredistributeddifferently.Thescenariosstartfromfourdifferentassumptions:thatcurrenttrendscontinue(ourbasecase),thattherearenoconstraintsonNorthAmericanLNGexports,thatthereisasurgeinAsianLNGdemand,andthatthepriceofoildrops.Tocreateeachscenario,wecombinethesestartingpointswithreasonableassumptionsabouthowothercurrentuncertaintiesmightplayout.Forexample,ifNorthAmericanLNGexportcapacityweretogrowrapidly—reaching180bcmain2030—whatwouldthissayaboutexportcapacityfromothersuppliers?Thesidebar,“Whatthefourscenarioscover”describesindetailthesescenariosandtheassumptionsuponwhichtheyarebased.SidebarWhatthefourscenarioscoverExhibit3showsthelevelofvaluecreatedbyregionundereachscenarioin2030,basedonthetradeflowsandpricemovementsthatensue.Thegapbetweenthescenarioswiththeleastandgreatestvaluecreationisasmuchas$415billion.Valuecreationwillalsodifferbycountry.Bywayofillustration,Exhibit4showstheimplicationsforvaluecreationwithinandamongindividualcountriesinthedifferentscenarios.Exhibit3Valuecreationvariesbyregionunderdifferentscenarios.油价下降亚洲需求激增未受限北美LNG出口当前形势继续(基本用例)非洲亚洲油价下降亚洲需求激增未受限北美LNG出口当前形势继续(基本用例)非洲亚洲澳大利亚欧洲北美俄罗斯其他2030年各地区价值创造预估(百万美元)1Exhibit4ThevaluecreatedindomesticmarketsandthroughLNGandpipedflowsvariesunderdifferentscenarios.中国美国土库曼斯坦到中国俄罗斯中国美国土库曼斯坦到中国俄罗斯到欧盟卡塔尔到日本美国到中国澳大利亚到日本未受限北美LNG出口亚洲需求激增油价下降当前形势继续(基本用例)每年百万美元国内管送液化天然气(LNG)StrategicimplicationsForthetimebeing,significantarbitrageopportunitiescontinuetoexistforLNGplayersbecauseofpricingdisparitiesamongtheUnitedStates,Europe,andAsiaandbecauseofthebigdifferenceinthecostofLNGproductionindifferentregions.ButLNGisalong-termbusiness,withlong-termcontractsandlargecapitalprojectsthatonlyrecouptheircostsovertwoorthreedecades.Toprosperregardlessofwhatthefutureholds,suppliersandbuyersofLNGwillneedtheforesighttopredicthowthemarketwillevolve.Somesupplyanddemandsignpostswillbeobvious—forexample,thegrantingofaseriesofnewpermitsforUSterminals,orfinalinvestmentdecisionsfornewLNGprojectsinAfricaandAustralia.LessobviousdemandindicatorsmightbethenumberofnewLNGfillingstationsinAsiaortheextentofthedevelopmentofgas-pipelinenetworksthere.Companieswillthereforeneedtokeepaclosewatchonlocalmarketdevelopmentsandhonetheabilitytocorrectlyinterpretwhattheypresage.LNGbuyersareinapowerfulmarketposition.BecausecurrentlyproposedLNGsupplycapacityislikelytofarexceeddemand,buyerswillbeabletochoosefromawiderangeofcompetingsuppliers.Thiscreatesanopportunitytonegotiatetermswithdevelopersofnewfacilitiesthatmaybeeagertolockincustomersaheadofcompetitors.Inthepreviousbuyers’markettenyearsago,buyerswillingtocommittolong-termcontractswereabletosecureattractiveterms.Choosingtherightsupplierscanbeacomplextask,however,andLNGbuyerswillneedtostrengthentheirsourcingcapabilitiesinordertoevaluatewhatwillbecomeamuchbroaderrangeofoptionsandnegotiatekeenterms.Andwhatofsuppliers?Inallfourscenarios,newLNGprojectsoutsideNorthAmericaarerequiredtomeetdemand,yetfewarecurrentlyprogressing.Everyyearofdelaycouldcarrysignificantcostsgiventhelikelihoodthatpriceswillstayhighuntilaround2020,butthereafteronlyunderthe“Asiandemandsurge”scenariowillsuchhighpricescontinue.Developersmightthereforeconsiderofferinglowerpricesormo