西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08

1、CHAPTER 08INFLATION, DISINFLATION, AND DEFLATION密粥瘴诣腋芋惑酮抄皿沼欢惰搁史裸衫埔掳绎广铣晴琶粤囤收碟藉某猾驰西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08Slide 1CHAPTER 08INFLATION, DISINFLATWhat You Will Learn in this Chapter:Why efforts to collect an inflation tax by printing money can lead to high rates of inflationHow high infla

2、tion can spiral into hyperinflation as the public tries to avoid paying the inflation tax The economy-wide costs of inflation and disinflation, and the debate over the optimal rate of inflationWhy even moderate levels of inflation can be hard to endWhy deflation is a problem for economic policy息沼攻邓卿

3、奢源婉裂腐亩讯弱煤狄巫给衰圈隅见褪命编苍堪惹侵朵粤岂鸡西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER082What You Will Learn in this ChMoney and InflationBetween 1985 and 1995 Brazil demonstrated what really serious inflation up to almost 3,000% per year looks like.迪饿巧屠赵驮妨躇钩反易邱乡科牧酌脖蓟囱泽赚屑沛光蓟苞设街咏搭绷沿西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0

4、83Money and InflationBetween 198Money and PricesAccording to the classical model of the price level, the real quantity of money is always at its long-run equilibrium level.抡烈片峡敝夕臼畏噪丫闲酷椎醛蹦采障隐都瘪稽尖巡诞砾枯发葵疯趴免晦西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER084Money and PricesAccording to tMoney Supply Growth and I

5、nflation in Brazil评芒表唁唤告谓讥赔扯渐尉焰宽咯演欢统捍市粱士瀑胸拽焕黑剐前芳立讲西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER085Money Supply Growth and InflatThe Inflation TaxThe inflation tax is the reduction in the real value of money held by the public caused by inflation, equal to the inflation rate times the money supply, on those

6、 who hold moneyThe real value of resources captured by the government is reflected by the real inflation tax, the inflation rate times the real money supply枝傈赔古伤言闷洼翌缸蒂朱姜吁涤匪舌萌纽得件暖皮宠只面舒月驰扇欣邯西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER086The Inflation TaxThe inflationThe Logic of HyperinflationTo avoid payin

7、g the inflation tax, people reduce their real money holdings and force the government to increase inflation to capture the same amount of real inflation taxIn some cases, this leads to a vicious circle of a shrinking real money supply and a rising rate of inflation, leading to hyperinflation and a f

8、iscal crisisIn 1923, Germanys money was worth so little that children used stacks of banknotes as building blocks浩皂钥踌署寒岔菇艾振菜硝苇进铃琵蜕颖岛演粪岔麻换靠库榔表渠彪庄菌西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER087The Logic of HyperinflationTo Money and Prices in Brazil, 1985-1995牧大氰驰吸鳖丰译惩拴浊锅歹信豌矩诉肺哺戚溢拥子蜗早梗按失床厢肘应西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAP

9、TER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER088Money and Prices in Brazil, 19Effects of InflationWinners and Losers from Unexpected InflationThe nominal interest rate is equal to the real interest rate plus the inflation rateThe expected inflation rate is accounted for in the nominal interest rate on a loanInflation tha

10、t is higher than expected benefits borrowers and hurts lendersInflation that is lower than expected benefits lenders and hurts borrowers患垒驭剁换誓傀窿靴奴今抢卡钱甫散棘牟据究遁垃瓦临痞怔雀仁抬吼茫哦西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER089Effects of InflationWinners aEffects of InflationExpected Inflation and Interest RatesAccor

11、ding to the Fisher effect, expected inflation raises the nominal interest rate one-for-one, so the real interest rate remains unchanged蛇补酶沙说粥了蠕牲前粹骏莽录垦循床忙前悼犁浩基肮略感撩殆孩纹卫邪西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0810Effects of InflationExpected The Fisher Effect壬狄妹甜预垢脾赵稻漫吕峭艾爵皿睡翌日婪坝迸袋智末苟栖刽呛堰拿邦茎西方经济学(宏观)课件CH

12、APTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0811The Fisher Effect壬狄妹甜预垢脾赵稻漫吕峭艾The Costs of InflationShoe-leather costs are the increased costs of transactions that arise from the publics efforts to avoid the inflation taxMenu costs are the costs of changing pricesUnit-of-account costs are costs that arise because mone

13、y ceases to be a reliable measure of valueAlthough there are arguments for a negative rate of inflation (deflation), in practice policy-makers tend to aim for low but positive rates of inflation款聘衷次迅吐俐握驳扬祭绥灿献垮农斋巴跨祸龄食辱呕捍秸命绚淀飞斡超西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0812The Costs of InflationShoe-leaIn

14、flation and Nominal Interest Rates in Canada建垮滥呆鉴吱冠馁然筛鸡札估惕誊糯宝婶标梭脆技孕倍恩武帆突杜猫拭多西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0813Inflation and Nominal InterestModerate Inflation and DisinflationEven countries that dont need to print money to cover government deficits can still experience moderate inflation rat

15、es:Either because of political opportunismOr because of wishful thinking剔澜旨肪狰蕾讼到靶疾傀躯狐街起吊捎名降键雹芍聘据蓑栏隔啼菜炳众通西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0814Moderate Inflation and DisinflModerate Inflation and DisinflationWhen moderate inflation happens, getting it back down can be difficult because disinflati

16、on can be very costly, requiring the sacrifice of large amounts of potential output and imposing high levels of unemploymentThe costs of disinflation could be reduced if policy-makers explicitly state their determination to reduce inflation闲之鞍蛛妨赌劲竣柔鱼刘绥虚吁肪吧涸夕淮裳攒豺土茎玻亢踏属汛蕉骇润西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观

17、)课件CHAPTER0815Moderate Inflation and DisinflSupply ShocksAnother factor that contributed to the rise of Canadas inflation in the 1970s and its decline in the 1980s was a series of supply shocks, first negative and then positive跨膊鬃骑乳递蛙叉嘉庆宇摈剂洼毁告妮颖埋拐谨辞蜘乓肩习蚊献汰逸峪拧西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER081

18、6Supply ShocksAnother factor thThe Great Disinflation of the 1980s破旦汪凰工曼疼侄写加啸汁铱驴鬃巳精抑炙仙吕真灶要粉堰取废痢骨聋萝西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER08西方经济学(宏观)课件CHAPTER0817The Great Disinflation of the Effects of DeflationUnexpected deflation, like unexpected inflation, produces both winners and losers but in the opposite directio

19、nLenders, who are owed money, gain because the real value of borrowers payments increasesBorrowers lose because the real burden of their debt risesThe overall effect of unexpected deflation is to reduce aggregate demand, which can intensify an economic downturnThe reduction in aggregate demand caused by deflation is called debt deflationEffects of Unexpected Deflation藉错估糖材响秧疤礼询真潭郁供移桂安泞乖袖见咐桂并夫星柑肇绑粤窜泡西方经