美国保险业Q4总结与展望：财险业务前景改善但寿险业务前景不佳

1、COREU.S. Insurance4Q Recap/Outlook: P&C Prospects Improving while Life InsuranceFaltersP&C Outlook Improving, At Least for Top-Tier Insurers. P&C re/insurers 4Q results were marred, as expected, by Hurricane Michael and record-level California wildfire catastrophelosses.Evenso,commercialP&Ctrendsare

2、likelymodestlyimprovingwith favorableunderlyingunderwritingmarginsatleastfortop-tierinsurersincludingCB,EARNINGS REVIEWU.S. Insurance/Life NEUTRAL UnchangedU.S. Insurance/Non-LifeNEUTRALUnchangedEquityResearch19February2019TRVandACGL.Ontheotherhand,AIGshowedfewsignsofstabilizationin4Qand continuesto

3、facedownwardearningsrevisions.Separately,Personallinesresults remainstrongalthoughrategainsaremoderating.Propertycatastrophereinsurance rateswereflatinJanuary19despitetheworsttwo-yearperiodforglobalcatastrophe lossesonrecord,althoughthissituationmaytightenastheyearprogresses.CommercialP&CPricingAppe

4、arstoBeImproving.Thepaceofrenewalratechangein bellwetherTRVsbusinessinsuranceunitwasmostlyunchangedq/q,althoughthe broaderpricingmeasurebasedonCIABdatacontinuestoimprove.Basedonour proprietaryearly19CommercialInsuranceBuyersSurvey,largeaccountP&Cmarket conditionsareonthecuspoftighteningthebythemosti

5、nfiveyears,whichwethink bodeswellforprimarycommercialinsurers.OurOW-ratedP&CstocksincludeBerkshireHathaway(favorablepositioningtohigher short-termrates,andpotentialforaccretiveacquisitionsaswellassharebuybacks), Allstate and Progressive (strongearningstrendsinautoandhomeinsurance),Chubb (coreglobalP

6、&Choldingwithsuperiorfranchisevalue),andArchCapital(tailwinds frommortgageinsuranceaswellastop-tierP&Cfranchise).LifeInsurersChallenged.Asexpected,4Qresultswerenoisyincludingtheimpactof volatile equity markets in late 2018. Bellwether life insurer valuations remain compressed with a median P/E of 7x

7、. However, its difficult to find fundamental catalyststhatwouldcausethelifestockstore-ratehigher.Forexample,asub-3%yield on10-yearUSTreasuries,aflatyieldcurve,andhighbetaareviewedasfactorsinthe substantialde-ratingoflifeinsurervaluations.Someinvestorsmightconsiderlockingin profitsonanystrengthinthel

8、ifeinsurancestocks.WeContinuetoSeeValueinPRU,UNM,LNC.PRUhasEPSpowerof$13basedonour estimates,anditscurrentP/Eof7xlooksattractive.Thecompanyhasdelivered consistentresultsinitsannuity,assetmanagement,andinternationalbusinesses.UNM shouldbenefitfromimprovingemploymenttrends.Legacylong-termcareexposurei

9、s aconcern,butwebelievethisisalreadydiscountedinUNMsvaluation.UNMcontinues todeliverongoingsharebuybacksanddividendincreases,andiscurrentlyvaluedat 6.5xearnings.LNChasdeliveredsolidresultsinitsUS-focusedannuityandlife insurancebusinessesalongwithaccretiveacquisitions.Thecompanyhasarobust sharebuybac

10、kprogramandgroupinsuranceresultsarerecovering.LNCscurrent valuationof6.6xearningshasupsidepotential,inourview.Forafulllistofourratings,pricetargetand earningschangesinthisreport,pleasesee tableonpage2.U.S. Insurance/Non-Life Jay Gelb, CFA+1 212 526 1561 HYPERLINK mailto:jay.gelb jay.gelb BCI,USSueLe

11、e+1 212 526 8190 HYPERLINK mailto:sue.lee sue.lee BCI, USAndrew Karp+1 212 526 9015 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.karp andrew.karp BCI, USU.S. ConsumerMark C.DeVries+12125269484 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.devries mark.devries BCI, USal n rteal n rten I-d e tc itr sReCapitalInc.oneofdoesandseekstodoinitsresearc

12、hAsabeawarethatthe mayhaveaofthattheofconsiderthisasonlyafactorinmakingtheirPLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 64.Summary of our Ratings, Price Targets and Earnings Changes in this Report (all changes are shown in bold)CompanyRatingOldNewPrice14-Feb-19Old

13、Price TargetNew%ChgOldEPS FY1 (E)New%ChgOldEPS FY2 (E)New%ChgU.S. Insurance/LifeU.S. Insurance/Non-LifeNeuNeuNeuNeuSource:BarclaysResearch.SharepricesandtargetpricesareshownintheprimarylistingcurrencyandEPSestimatesareshowninthereportingcurrency. FY1(E):CurrentfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.F

14、Y2(E):NextfiscalyearestimatesbyBarclaysResearch.StockRating:OW:Overweight;EW:EqualWeight;UW:Underweight;RS:RatingSuspended IndustryView:Pos:Positive;Neu:Neutral;Neg:NegativeP&C Insurance: Commercial P&C Rates Slightly Improving; 4Q Results Hard-Hit by Catastrophe LossesIn4Q,P&Cre/insurersresultswere

15、negativelyimpactedbyelevatedcatastrophelosses includingthecombinedimpactofHurricaneMichaelandtheCaliforniawildfires.CBsunderlyingunderwritingresults(beforetheimpactofcatastrophelossesandprioryear reservedevelopment)inthequarterwereworsethanourexpectationsalthoughweview the full-year result as a bett

16、er indicator of underlying trend. TRVs 4Q underlying underwritingresultsexceededouroutlook.Underlyingresultsforpersonalautoinsurers PGRandALLweresolid.AIGsP&Cresultswereagaindisappointinginthequarterrelativetoourexpectations.AIGs underlyingcombinedratiohasnowbeenunfavorable(99%orabove)forthepastsix

17、quarters. The company has committed to generating a P&C underwriting profit entering 2019,whichwethinkcouldbeastretchgoal.InsurancebrokersorganicrevenuegrowthwasbetterthanourexpectationsforAON, WLTW,andAJG.MeanwhileBROsorganicgrowthwasbelowouroutlookanddowny/y reflecting tough comps. Accounting chan

18、ges in 2018 meaningfully skewed y/y comparisonsforthebrokersin2018,althoughthenoiseshouldnolongerbeafactorin 2019 andbeyond.Slightly Increasing Commercial P&C RatesP&Cmarketconditionsarecurrentlystablealthoughonthecuspoftighteningthebythe mostinfiveyears,inourview,followingrecord-levelinsuredcatastr

19、ophelossesin2017-18.In4Q18,renewalratechangeinTRVsBusinessInsuranceunit(anindustrybellwether,in ourview)wasmostlyunchangedat+1.6%vs+1.7%inthepriorquarter.Workers compensationratedeclinesremainadragontheoverallpricingresult.BasedondatafromTravelers,whichweviewasaproxyfortheUScommercialP&C industry,co

20、mmercialP&Crateincreaseshavebeeninpositiveterritoryforthepastten quarters.WeexpectacontinuedfavorablecommercialP&Cratetrend,althoughnotassubstantialas wasseenduring2011-13(Figure1).Weattributethesestrongratetrendsbetween2011-13 as a reaction to large catastrophe losses in 2011 and the US industrysne

21、gative underwritingcashflow.Inthecurrentenvironment,weexpectindustryunderwritingcash flowstorecoverin2018-19whichmeansthepaceofrateincreasesisunlikelytobeas robust (Figure2).FIGURE 1TRV Business Insurance Renewal Rate Change7.1% 7.3% 7.5%FIGURE 2Industry Underwriting Cash Flowin$bnNegativeUnderwriti

22、ngCashflow=CatalystforImprovedP&CMarketConditions$50$405.3%3.6%2.0%5.6%4.8%3.6%2.8%2.2%1.1%0.9%0.7%2.1%1.4%0.5%0.5%0.7%$30$201.6%$101.6% (1.0%)(1.0%)(1.0%)(1.0%)(2.0%)(3.0%)1Q092Q091Q092Q093Q094Q091Q102Q103Q104Q101Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q142Q143Q144Q141Q152Q153Q154Q151Q162Q1

23、63Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q180.4% 0.2%0.4%(0.1%)$0 ($10)($20)20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018E2019E($30)20082009201020112012201320142015201620172018E2019ESource: Travelers, Barclays ResearchNote:1Q20094Q2011datarepresentrenewalpremiumchange.Source: ISO, Barclays ResearchNote:

24、 Hard market years are shaded in blue.CBviewscommercialP&Cpricingin4Q18assimilarto3Q18withimprovementsseenin somelinesofbusiness.AccordingtoCB,UScommercialP&Cpricingisnotimproving enough for the company to see margin improvement although we view its current underwritingresultsashighlyfavorable.Theco

25、mpanysoverallpaceofcommercialP&C rateincreaseswasunchangedq/qat+2.5%.HIGalsoobservedpositivecommercialP&Cpricingalthoughataslowingpace.However, workerscompensationrateshavecontinuedtodecline.FIGURE 3InIn4Q,renewalratechangeinTRVsBusinessInsuranceunitwasmostlystableat+1.6% versus1.7%inthepriorquarter

26、.Notably,workerscompensationratedeclinescontinueto beadragontheoverallrateoutcome.TRVPrimary Commercial Lines CommentaryCBAccordingtoCB,UScommercialP&Cpricingin4Q18wasupsimilarto3Q18.Rate increasesforNorthAmericacommercialP&Cwere+2.5%in4Q18.AIGAccordingtoAIG,GeneralInsuranceachievedanaverage4%ratein

27、creasebothinNorth AmericaandInternational.NorthAmericapublicD&Oandcommercialautoachievedrate increasesinthelowdoubledigits,whilecommercialpropertysawmidsingledigitincreases.HIGIn4Q,HIGobservedslightlyweakerpricemomentuminstandardcommercialP&Clines, drivenlargelybydeclinesinSmallCommercialworkerscomp

28、ensation.AccordingtoHIG, ratesinstandardcommerciallinesincreased1.5%in4Q18comparedto+1.8%in3Q2018.Source: Company data, Barclays ResearchTheinsurancebrokersalsonotedflat-to-slightlyimprovedcommercialP&Cpricingtrends, althoughworkerscompensationratescontinuetofacedownwardpressure.FIGURE 4Insurance Br

29、okers: P&C Pricing CommentaryCommentaryAJGallaghersaidrateandexposuregrowthtogethercontributedalittleover1ppttoits organicgrowthin3Q.AccordingtoAJG,UScommercialautoandpropertyinsurancerate increaseswere4%-5%in4Q18.Separately,casualtylineswereup3%,whileAJGallaghersaidrateandexposuregrowthtogethercont

30、ributedalittleover1ppttoits organicgrowthin3Q.AccordingtoAJG,UScommercialautoandpropertyinsurancerate increaseswere4%-5%in4Q18.Separately,casualtylineswereup3%,whileworkers compratesweredown1%-3%.AJGSource: Company data, Barclays ResearchAbroadermeasureofcommercialP&Cinsurancepricingincreased1.6%ona

31、veragebased onthelatestdatafromtheCouncilofInsuranceAgents&Brokers(CIAB).Thisresultin3Q 18(latestdataavailable)wasmostlyunchangedfroma+1.5%increaseinthepriorquarter, andmarkedthefourthconsecutivequarterofpositivepricingincreases.Weattributethese modestoverallpriceincreasestorecord-levelinsuredcatast

32、rophelosses.In3Q2018,largeaccountcommercialP&Cpricing(+1.6%)improvedfrom+0.9%inthe priorquarterandwaspositiveforthethirdquarterinarow.Althoughitwasamodest increaseinlargeaccountpricing,thiswasthefastestpaceofincreaseinfiveyears. Medium-sized(+1.7%)commercialP&Cpricingtrendsweremostlystableversus+1.8

33、%in 2Q.Meanwhile,small-sized(+1.4%)commercialP&Cpricingtrendsdeceleratedfrom+1.8% in2Q18whichwebelievereflectsincreasedcompetition.PleaserefertoourNovember15,2018reportformoredetails: HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 U.S.Insurance/Non-Life:3Q HYPERLINK /go/publications/conte

34、nt?contentPubID=FC2422794 18SteadyPaceofCommercialP&CPriceIncreasesFIGURE 5ChartChartpreparedbyBarclaysResearch40%30%FIGURE 6Cumulative Index of Rate Changes by Account SizeChart prepared by Barclays Research2005 HurricanesChart prepared by Barclays Research2005 Hurricanes9/11Financial CrisisJapan E

35、arthquake17016020%15010% HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentP

36、ubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC242

37、2794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 130 0% -10%1101004Q992Q004Q002Q014Q992Q004Q002Q014Q012Q024Q022Q034Q032Q044Q042Q054Q052Q064Q062Q074Q072Q084Q082Q094Q092Q104Q102Q114Q112Q124Q122Q134Q132Q14 HYPERLINK /go/publication

38、s/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 4Q14 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 2Q15 HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2422794 4Q152Q164Q162Q174Q172Q184Q992Q004Q002Q014Q012Q024Q022Q034Q032Q044Q042Q054Q052Q064Q062Q074Q072Q084Q082Q094Q092Q104Q102Q114Q112Q124Q122Q134Q132

39、Q144Q142Q154Q152Q164Q162Q174Q172Q18Source:TheCouncilofInsuranceAgents&Brokers ChartpreparedbyBarclaysResearch.Source:TheCouncilofInsuranceAgents&Brokers ChartpreparedbyBarclaysResearch.Stable Commercial P&C Market, Signs of HardeningOurproprietaryCommercialP&CInsuranceBuyersSurvey,whichwehavebeencon

40、ducting since2000( HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2434998 U.S.Insurance/Non-Life:Early2019InsuranceBuyersSurvey:StableMarket, HYPERLINK /go/publications/content?contentPubID=FC2434998 SignsofHardening,1/31/2019),indicatesP&C marketconditions are currentlystable althoughonthecuspof

41、tighteningbythemostinfiveyearsfollowingrecord-levelinsured catastrophelossesin2017-18.Weviewthisasamoresignificantchangethanmanyare expecting.Insurersareshowingsignsofincreasedunderwritingdiscipline,withChubb leadingthecharge(whichsupportsourOWratingonitsshares).Meanwhile,underwriting trendsatAIGapp

42、eartobeinfluxwhichcouldmeanitsplantoimproveP&Cunderwriting resultscouldtakeevenlongerthananticipated.Major Insights from our Survey: Commercial P&C insurance prices are expected to slightlyincrease(medianincreaseis2%)asofearly2019,whichmarkedthehighestpace ofincreaseinoverfiveyearsalthoughwithawider

43、angeofoutcomes.Nearlyallthose surveyedsaidthecommercialP&Cmarketisbroadlystable.Around85%ofbuyerssaidthe catastrophe-exposedpropertyinsurancemarketisstable,althoughmanyindicatedabias towardhardening.Meanwhile,nearlytwo-thirdsofbuyerswesurveyedareinvolvedin multi-yearP&Cprogramswhichhaslimitedthemagn

44、itudeofrateincreases.Looking ahead,somebuyersexpectthesedealstobelessprevalent.Signs of Firming Rates in a Mostly Stable Commercial P&C Insurance Market. Based onoursurveyresults,thepercentageofbuyersexpectingdirectionallyhigherP&Crates wasatthehighestlevelinoverfiveyearsdrivenbycommercialpropertyin

45、surance. RespondentsexpectanoverallmedianP&Crateincreaseof2%,whichisthehighest level since mid-2013 and an increase from 1% both six months and a yearago. Meanwhile,allbutonerespondentviewedtheP&Cmarketasstable,althoughmore respondentsindicatedabiastowardshardeningcomparedtosixmonthsago.ExamplesofIn

46、creasingUnderwritingDiscipline.Manyinsurersarefiercelyprotecting theirexistingbusinessfromcompetition,particularlyforlargeaccountswithfavorable loss experience and limited catastrophe exposure. Meanwhile, several respondents notedtherehavebeensignsofincreasingunderwritingdisciplinewhentargetingnew b

47、usiness, particularly in catastrophe-exposed property insurance. Several buyers indicatedChubbwasfirmlyholdingthelineonpricing.UnderwritingtrendsatAIGstill appeartobeinfluxreflectingrelativelynewmanagementoversightaswellactionsthe companyhastakentoimprovereturns.MostlyStableInsuranceBrokerCompensati

48、on.Mostriskmanagersexpecttopaytheir brokersthesameamountasayearago.Meanwhile,16%expecttopayahigherfee (downslightlyfrom20%sixmonthsago)reflectingexposuregrowth.Inourmost recentsurvey,twobuyersaddedanewinsurancebrokertotheirprograms,whiletwo otherrespondentsdroppedexistingbrokersfromtheirprograms.The

49、switchingof brokersbytheircustomershasreturnedtothehistoricalmedianlevelof8%following particularlylowturnoverinthepastyear.Multi-Year P&C Deals Could Be Tougher to Renew. Inourmostrecentsurveyof50 largecommercialinsurancebuyers,nearlytwo-thirdshadamulti-yeardealinplacefor atleastaportionoftheirinsur

50、ancecoverage.However,severalrespondentswere concernedthatmulti-yearprogramsmightnotbeavailablein2019andbeyondas insurersseekrateincreases.Still,somebuyerswereoptimisticthatmulti-yeardeals wouldstillbeofferedtocustomerswithattractiveriskprofilesincludingbenignclaims experienceandstronglong-termrelati

51、onshipswithinsurers.Severalrespondentsnoted that previously implemented multi-year programs prevented more significant rate increasesparticularlyinpropertyinsurancelines.FIGURE 7Directional Change in Commercial P&C Rates: Early 2019 Trends Point to Firming Pricing Versus Six Months Ago100%90%80%70%6

52、0%50%40%30%20%10%0%RateincreasesFlatrenewalsRatedecreasesSource: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 8Barclays Commercial Insurance Buyers Survey Summary FindingsMid 2012Early 2013Mid 2013Early 2014Mid 2014Early 2015Mid 2015Early 2016Mid 2016Early 2017Mid 2017Early 2018Mid 2018Early 2019Median Pricing TrendsOve

53、rall3%3%2%1%0%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%-1%1%1%2%Property4%3%2%0%0%0%0%-3%-3%-3%-3%2%0%3%Casualty2%3%2%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%DirectionalChangesinCommercialP&CRatesRate increases76%83%73%56%36%24%8%12%12%12%24%58%54%70%Flat renewals15%17%19%27%32%24%35%30%26%24%14%18%24%12%Rate decreases9%0%8%17%32%52%57%58%62%

54、64%62%24%22%18%PolicytermsandconditionsMore Restrictive7%9%7%5%0%6%0%2%0%0%0%0%2%25%Same88%89%92%92%92%74%78%68%82%76%82%94%86%61%Less restrictive5%1%1%3%8%20%22%30%18%24%18%6%12%14%RenewalProcessMore Difficult for Buye36%33%29%11%15%8%0%2%2%4%4%22%24%27%Same64%66%68%88%81%48%46%54%44%66%48%72%54%51

55、%Easier0%1%3%1%4%44%54%44%54%30%48%6%22%22%HowdoyouviewtheP&Cmarketbroadly?Hard23%3%1%1%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%Stable77%96%99%96%80%82%66%48%60%50%61%100%100%98%Soft0%1%0%3%17%18%34%52%40%50%39%0%0%0%Howdoyouviewthecatastrophe-exposedpropertyinsurancemarket?Hard41%17%4%4%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%10%14%12%Stable59

56、%83%96%95%72%84%62%56%46%52%62%90%86%86%Soft0%0%0%1%20%16%38%44%54%48%38%0%0%2%Source: Barclays ResearchJury1eiretesSte,sEtdThecriticalJanuary1reinsurancerenewalratesstabilizedwhichwasgenerallyconsistent withourexpectations,althoughthiswillprobablybeviewedasadisappointingresultby investors.Aswouldbe

57、expected,loss-impactedreinsuranceprogramsgenerallysawrate increaseswhileloss-freebusinessbenefitedfromratedecreases.Thisresultwaslargely drivenbysizable2H18catastrophelossesimpactingthereinsurancemarketincluding HurricaneMichaelandrecord-levelCaliforniawildfirelosses,inourview.Another factor appears

58、 to be constrained capacity in collateralized retrocessional reinsurancemarketalthoughweexpectthistobeanear-termfactorsincemanyprimary insurers likely chose to retain additional risk. Our current thinking is that property catastrophe reinsurance rates could further rise throughout 2019 based on larg

59、e recent catastropheevents,especiallyfortheJapanrenewalsinAprilandthemid-yearsoutheast US/Floridarenewals.Cumulative property catastrophe reinsurance rates have declined by roughly 30% since 2013whichmeansthereislikelytobeverylittlemarginremaininginthisbusiness.PersistentP&Cindustryconsolidationisex

60、pectedinsomecasestoresultinlessdemandfor reinsuranceprotectionbecauselargerentitiescangenerallyabsorbmorelossactivity althoughtherearesomenotableexceptionssuchasAIGpurchasingincreasedprotection, in ourview.Thereinsurancemarkethasstabilizedfollowingaround$150bnofglobalinsuredindustry catastrophelosse