美国能源业：二叠纪钻机数量增长的缓和

1、GlobalResearch10 January2019UBS Evidence Lab inside: RigsillowEnergyAmericasEquitiesModeration in Permian Rig Count GrowthEnergyAmericasEquitiesUBS Evidence Lab Rig Model: Total Rig Count Up QOQ Despite Lower Oil Prices Rig count growth increased in 4Q18 to +2.8% after a slowdown in 3Q of +0.7% foll

2、owing consecutive strong 1Q/2Q of +7.5%/+5.0%, respectively. The rig count cadence implies slower growth into the start of 19, which should pick up slightly in 2Q.RigsillowidentifiedCEQP,OKE&ENLKasthoseseeingthemostgrowtharound theirassetsfollowedbyTRGP.Wecontinuetoexpectstronggrowthin4Q18,following

3、 the strong macro support we identified in our previous Rigsillow HYPERLINK /shared/d2tONFmCIX (click here) and EIA estimates; however, prod growth should begin to taper into the beginning of 19, potentially due to lower crude prices and infrastructure tightness across midstream. During4Qcalls,wewil

4、llistenforcadenceinto19volguidanceasastagnantrigcount in the Permian could imply slower growth until new pipeline capacity comes online. Thatsaid,rigcountintheEagleFordisupQoQasitcontinuestoprovideahavenfrom the over utilized Permian.Interesting Trends in Top Basins: The Permian and Haynesville4Q18

5、oil rig count in the Permian basin was flat QoQ as the highest producing basin finally felt pressure from its infrastructure constraints. Despite the stalling rig count, DUCs were up 6.5% in Nov and the EIA still is projecting oil/natgas production to be up5.4%/7.0%in4Q18,respectively.Theslowdowninr

6、igcountmaystarttosurfacein 1Q19 as the EIA predicts QoQ oil growth of only 3.8%, the lowest quarterly growth rateinthePermiansince16. Thatsaid,wecouldseeareturninrigcountin1Q19as producersanticipatenewpipelinecapacityin2H19.p5.Wealsoflagrigcountgrowth in the Haynesville, which should continue to dri

7、ve growth in 19, but we see as risk of productiondeclineinlate19-20asPermian/NEnatgasproductionramps(seep.8).Closer Look at 1H19 Volume Guidance CommentaryBasedontheUBSEvidenceLabgeospatialRigModelandouranalysisCEQP,OKEand TRGP could provide positive guidance commentary during 4Q18. In our report fr

8、om September,wehighlightedthatWES,TRGP,DCPandCEQPcouldprovidethepositive commentaryfor4Q18.CEQPsOrlaprocessingplantinthePermianwaspickedupby theGeospatialmodelin4Q18,likelythereasonitplacedhighestamongthoseexposed to oil rig activity this quarter. p3ShneurZ.Gershuni,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gersh

9、uni +1-212-7133974Aga Zmigrodzka,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszka.zmigrodzka +1-212-7133014Brian ReynoldsAssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds +1-212-7132563Michelle AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel +1-212-7134896Luke AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:luke.vernon +1-212-7132

10、402Figure 1: Analysis of Changes in 4Q18 Rig Count in Companies Footprint vs 3Q18 Gas ThroughputWeekly Average RigG&Pby Quarter Total Total (%)3Q18AssetsMagnitudeCompanyNameTicker RatingsPTExposure 4Q17 3Q18 4Q18* 4Q18 vs 4Q18 vs 4Q18 vs 4Q18 vs ofImpact4Q173Q184Q173Q18(Bcf/d)4Q18 New Rigs to Throug

11、hput RatioNames Exposed Primarily to Oil Rigs ActivityCrestwood Equity Partners LPCEQPBuy$ 43.0079%3545794434125%76%1.034.0 xONEOK IncOKEBuy$ 75.0025%9910911718818%7%1.84.3xEnLink Midstream Partners LPENLKBuy$ 17.0082%194208220261214%6%3.83.2xTarga Resources CorpTRGPBuy$ 64.0068%297346358611221%4%4.

12、03.0 xDCP Midstream LPDCPBuy$ 46.0062%286337350641322%4%4.92.6xEnergy Transfer Partners LPETBuy$ 28.0022%24527828137315%1%12.40.3xWestern Gas Partners LPWESBuy$ 60.0089%5210210351098%0%2.80.1xEnable Midstream Partners LPENBLBuy$ 17.0064%1011071054-24%-2%4.5-0.4xEnterpriseProductsPartnersLPEPDBuy$ 39

13、.0016%5613213073-3130%-2%5.1-0.5xNames Exposed Primarily to Gas Rigs ActivityWilliams CosWMBBuy$ 39.0059%443938-6-1-13%-2%8.1-0.1xMPLX LPMPLXBuy$ 41.0046%8611611024-628%-5%7.2-0.9xSource:UBSestimates,UBSEvidenceLab,BakerHughes;Note:G&PAssetsExposureisbasedonG&PsegmentEBITDA/Margin/Operatingprofitexp

14、osuretototal EBITDA/Margin/Operatingprofit;RigCountDatatill12/28/2018;Rigcountismeasuredintheareawithina25-mileradiusofeachcompanysprocessingassetfootprint (area-weighted) HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND

15、REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 25. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as onl

16、y a single factor in making their investment decision.Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250020 Which Names Will Likely Provide Positive Volume Commentary into1H19?3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250019 Location,Location,Location4 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250018 OilRigCountbyBasinCloserLookatthePermian5 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250017 W

17、hoWillBenefitfromChangesinOilRigCount?6 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250016 WhoWillBenefitfromChangesinGasRigCount?7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250015 atral Gs Rg ount by n oer ok t te aneie 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250014 RegionalFootprintMap:ProcessingPlantsandSedimentaryBasins9Individual Company/Partnership Section10 HYPERL

18、INK l _TOC_250013 AmericanMidstreamPartnersLP(AMID,Neutral,$4)11 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250012 CrestwoodEquityPartnersLP(CEQP,Buy,$43)12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 DCPMidstreamLP(DCP,Buy,$46)13 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 EnableMidstreamPartnersLP(ENBL,Buy,$17)14 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 EnLinkMidstreamPartnersLP

19、(ENLK,Buy,$17)15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 EnterpriseProductsPartnersLP(EPD,Buy,$39)16 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 EnergyTransferLP(ET,Buy,$28)17 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 MPLXLP(MPLX,Buy,$41)18 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 ONEOKInc(OKE,Buy,$75)19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 TargaResourcesCorp(TRGP,Buy,$64)20 HYPERL

20、INK l _TOC_250003 WesternGasPartnersLP(WES,Buy,$60)21 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 WilliamsCos(WMB,Buy,$39)22 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 MethodologyOverview23 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Definitions23ShneurZ.Gershuni,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:shneur.gershuni +1-212-7133974Aga Zmigrodzka,CFA HYPERLINK mailto:agnieszk

21、a.zmigrodzka +1-212-7133014Brian ReynoldsAssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:brian.reynolds +1-212-7132563Michelle AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:michelle.kenel +1-212-7134896Luke AssociateAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:luke.vernon +1-212-7132402Which Names Will Likely Provide Positive Volume Commentary

22、into1H19?KeyTakeaways:Overall,therigcountwasup2.8%QoQor+29rigs.Basedontheanalysis CEQP,OKE,andENLKcouldprovidepositivecommentaryduring4Q18conferencecalls, while commentary on overall volumes through 1H19 from ENBL and MPLX will likely be more muted. In our report from September HYPERLINK h/shared/d2

23、xG5D65SRWc (click here), we highlighted that WES, TRGP, and DCP could provide the positive commentary for 4Q18. CEQP topped the list as its Orla system was put into service in 3Q18 which is expected to support a 1H19 volume ramp. OKEs Canadian Valley II processing plant likely contributed to its 7%

24、QoQ growth which should continue into 1H19 as it ramps to full capacity. TRGP continues to be near the top half, benefitting from its significant presence in the Permian basin.MPLXandWMBareprimarilyexposedtogasrigsintheNortheast.Forthesamegrowthingasthroughputfewergasrigsareneededvscruderigs.Consequ

25、ently, weanalyzedthem separately from names that are primarily exposed to oil rig activity. We note that the rig count growth in 4Q for MPLX was down 5% QoQ (oil rigs are down 11%, compared to gas rigsonlydown1%).GasrigcountaroundWMBsplantsdecreased2%QoQ.Wehighlightthatgasrigsrepresent20%/19%/10%oft

26、otalrigsinENBL/EPD/ETareas,respectively.Figure 2: Analysis of Changes in 4Q18 Rig Count in Companies Footprint vs 3Q18 Gas ThroughputG&P AssetsWeekly Average QuarterTotal Total 3Q184Q18 New Rigs to ThroughputMagnitudeof ImpactCompany NameTicker RatingsPTExposure4Q17 3Q18 4Q18* 4Q18 vs4Q174Q18 vs3Q18

27、4Q18 vs4Q174Q18 vs3Q18Throughput(Bcf/d)RatioNames Exposed Primarily to Oil Rigs ActivityCrestwood Equity Partners CEQP Buy ONEOKIncOKE EnLink Midstream Partners ENLK Buy TargaResourcesCorpTRGP BuyDCPMidstreamDCP Buy Energy TransferPartnersET Buy Western GasPartnersWES Buy Enable Midstream Partners E

28、NBL Buy Enterprise Products Partners EPD Buy$43.00$75.00$17.00$64.00$46.00$28.00$60.00$17.00$39.0079%3545794434125%76%1.034.0 x25%9910911718818%7%1.84.3x82%194208220261214%6%3.83.2x68%297346358611221%4%4.03.0 x62%286337350641322%4%4.92.6x22%24527828137315%1%12.40.3x89%5210210351098%0%2.80.1x64%10110

29、71054-24%-2%4.5-0.4x16%5613213073-3130%-2%5.1-0.5xNames Exposed Primarily to Gas Rigs ActivityNames Exposed Primarily to Gas Rigs ActivityWilliamsCosWMBMPLXMPLX$39.00$41.0059%443938-6-1-13%-2%8.1-0.1x46%8611611024-628%-5%7.2-0.9xUBS Evidence Lab inside: Rigsillow 10 January 2019Source:UBSestimates,U

30、BSEvidenceLab,BakerHughes;Note:G&PAssetsExposureisbasedonG&PsegmentEBITDA/Margin/OperatingprofitexposuretototalEBITDA/Margin/Operatingprofit;RigCountDatatill12/28/2018;RigcountismeasuredUBS Evidence Lab inside: Rigsillow 10 January 2019InthissectionweanalyzednamesunderUBSmidstreamcoveragewithG&Pexpo

31、sureinanefforttoanswerthequestionwhichcompaniescouldprovidepositivecommentaryregarding volume guidance into 4Q18/1Q19 based on QOQ changes in 4Q18 rig count. We looked at QOQ change in 4Q18 rig count and 3Q18 gas throughput in order to determinate which companieswilllikelyseehighervolumesthrough4Q18

32、duetoincreasesin3Qrigcount.Weused4Q18rigcountgrowthanddivideditbythelatestreportedgasthroughput(3Q18)to seewhichnameshavethehighestrigs/Bcfpdratio.Webelievethatthenameswiththehighestratiowillhavethehighestpotentialforpositivevolumegrowthinto4Q18/1Q19.Location, Location, LocationAfter strong QoQ rig

33、counts in 1Q18 (+64 rigs) and 2Q18 (+54 rigs), growth slowed in 3Q,addingonly7rigsandrecoveredin4Q18(+29rigs).ThetotalU.S.rigcountwasup2.8% QoQ (vs. 0.7/5.4% QoQ in 3Q/2Q). Notably, the Permian (44.9% of all US rigs) was flat QoQ at 486 rigs. Rig count in the major basins was essentially flat as maj

34、ority of growth came from non-major basins, up 30 rigs: +21 Oil, +10 Gas, -1 Misc. during the quarter, roughly +16%. According to Baker Hughes Rig Count data, the majority of Other rigs reside in OK, TX, LA, and WY. Other notable movements include the Granite Wash down 15%, the Cana Woodford down 12

35、% and the Utica down 15%. The DJ-Niobrara was up 7% and the Williston was up 6%.Smal nreases n J-obrara, Eage ord, ton, thr bns were prtay offset by a flat rig count in the Permian and another declining rig count out of the MidCon. The Cana Woodford was down 8 rigs or -12% QoQ (down 15 rigs or -20%

36、from 2Q), the Granite Wash was down 3 rigs or -23% QoQ (down 6 rigs or -38% from 2Q). We will continue to watch the rig count in the Permian as the crude, natgas, and NGL pipeline congestion likely prevents further growth, until additional takeaway pipelinescomeonlinein2H19.RigcountintheEagleFordwas

37、up2QoQasitiscloseto the Gulf Coast and infrastructure is notconstrained.Crude prices declined sharply during 4Q18, falling to $42/bbl in late December from a 2018highof$76inearlyOctober.Prices,alongwiththegreatermarket,experienceda slight rebound in the beginning of January, approaching the $50/bbl

38、mark. The EIA expects 4Q18 crude oil and natgas production to increase 5.8% and 5.4% QoQ, respectively.EIAreportedNovemberwellcompletionsupby4%v.3Q18average,which should drive G&P higher volumes. In November DUC inventory increased by 10% v. 3Q18 average. Concurrently, DUC to completed well ratio de

39、clined 6% YTD to 6.7 vs.thepeakof7.1inJanuary2018asmorewellsneedtobecompletedtosupportthe current production growth rate.Geospatial Model Powered by UBS Evidence LabUBSEvidenceLabcreatedageospatialmodel,UBSEvidenceLabRigModel,toestimate the rig count most relevant to each midstream operator, based o

40、n locations of theirprocessingplantsandtherigcountina25-mileradiusofthatassetfootprint.Pleasesee page22formethodologyoverview.Wehighlightthatnotalltherigsina25-mileradius arenecessarilydedicatedtoagivenplant;however,webelievethatthehighrigactivity around a plant indicates the potential for future vo

41、lume growth.Figure 3: Rig Count by CountySource: Baker Hughes, UBS, UBS Evidence LabOil Rig Count by Basin Closer Look at the PermianThemapbelowhighlightsbasinswithhighestoilrigcount:Permian486rigs,EagleFord 71rigs,CanaWoodford59rigs,andWilliston56rigs.4Q18oilrigcountinthePermian was flat QoQ. EIA e

42、xpects Permian 4Q18 oil/natural gas production to increase 5.4%/7.0% QoQ, vs 6.7%/6.9% in 3Q and 6.6%/10.0% in 2Q18, respectively. In our Throughput report post 3Q earnings HYPERLINK /shared/d2iiKdHSlGrja (click here), we highlighted that 26% of large E&Ps revised their 18 production expectations hi

43、gher, with 58%/68% maintaining their18prod/capexguidance.Thatsaid,theroughly40%declineinoilpricesin4Q18 likely caused E&Ps to consider a more conservative approach to 19 should prices continuetoremainpressured.AccordingtoUBSE&Pteam,basedon19guidance,and despite increases in places like Guyana (one-o

44、ff HES), the numbers indicate flat YoY capexwith8%higherproduction. HYPERLINK /shared/d2fy6jbrmvTB9F (clickhere).SofarFANG,OXY,CDEV,PE,AR,and CHKhaveannounced19capexcuts;however,moststillseeoverallproductiontobeup YOY.During4Qcalls,wewilllistenforanupdatefromWES,EPD,ET,DCP,andTRGP on the producer ac

45、tivity in the basin.Figure 4: 4Q18* Oil Rig Count by BasinFigure 5: Oil Rig Count in the Permian6005004003002001006-Jan-176-Feb-176-Jan-176-Feb-176-Mar-176-Apr-176-May-176-Jun-176-Jul-176-Aug-176-Sep-176-Oct-176-Nov-176-Dec-176-Jan-186-Feb-186-Mar-186-Apr-186-May-186-Jun-186-Jul-186-Aug-186-Sep-186-

46、Oct-186-Nov-186-Dec-18Source: Baker Hughes, UBS Evidence Lab; Note: Rig count as of September 30, 2018In Figure 6, we highlight the top counties in the Permian by YoY rig count change.Figure 6: Top Counties in the Permian by Oil Rig Count Y/Y ChangesLEA, LEA, REEVES, TX MARTIN, TX MIDLAND, TX EDDY,

47、NE WARD, TXPECOS, TXUPTON, TX CULBERSON, TXWINKLER, TXGARZA, TXGAINES, TX YOAKUM, TX GLASSCOCK, REAGAN, TXLOVING, TX18171513131310665-2-2-2-3-3-10Source: Baker Hughes, UBS Evidence Lab ; Note: Rig count as of December 28th, 2018Source: UBS Evidence Lab; Baker Hughes, Note: *4Q18 weekly average throu

48、gh 12/28/2018Who Will Benefit from Changes in Oil Rig Count?The average 4Q18 oil rig count was 878, up QoQ from 863 in 3Q18 and up YoY from 743 rigs in 4Q17. We believe the rig count growth in 4Q18 supports production growth in1H19,albeitataslowerpacethanthelasttwoyears.Wetrackoilrigsasassociated ga

49、sisproducedfromoilwellsandthatgasrequiresprocessingtomeetspecificationsof FERC-regulatedresiduegaspipelines.Thatsaid,crudeandnatgaspipelinecongestion fromthePermianandNGLtakeawaycapacityconstraintsfromthePermian,Bakken,and Mid-Con may continue to slow the pace of growth over the next 12 months until

50、 new takeaway capacity will come online in 2H19.TheUBSEvidenceLabRigModelindicatesthattherigcountforEPD,TRGP,WES,and DCPs footprints increased by 63, 62, 55, and 47 YoY, respectively. All four companies (incl.TRGP)haveasignificantG&PpresenceinthePermianandwenotethatwhilerig count is slowing in the P

51、ermian due to congestion, the Permian oil rig count still represents45%ofallUSoilrigsat486rigs.OKElikelysawabenefitthisquarterdue to its Canadian Valley II processing plant beginning its commissioning in 4Q18 and starting its ramp to full capacity. OKE also has plans to add its Demicks Lake I and II

52、 plants in the Williston basin which are expected to come online in late 19/20, respectively. Based on UBS Evidence Lab Model, rig count around TRGPs footprint increased by 4% QoQ in 4Q18, which should drive higher 1H19 volumes as new processingplantsinthePermiancomeonline.WebelieveTRGPsstrongpresen

53、ceinthe Permianshouldcontinuetoprovideamoat.Notably,ENLKislikelytoseeanuptickin volumesinto1H19asitsLoboIII(Permian)plantrampstocapacityanditsThunderbird (MidCon) plant enters service in early 1Q19. WES Mentone I processing plant was placedintoserviceinthecoreoftheDelaware(Loving,TX)whichshouldsuppo

54、rtWES long anticipated 4Q18 volume ramp supported by APC drilling activity. Future growth forWESincludeplanstocompleteMentoneIIin1Q19andwewilllistencloselytoits4Q earnings call for the potential FID of the Mentone III facility that could come online late 2019 early2020.While DCPs oil rig count growt

55、h slowed to 47 in 4Q from 48/54/70 in 3Q18/2Q18/1Q18, DCP still has the 2nd highest footprint at 326 rigs. When compared withourlastpublishedrefreshoftheUBSEvidenceLabRigModel,YoYgrowthslowed forTRGP,DCP,andETforthesecondconsecutivequarter.WenotethatETandMPLXsawthelargestdecelerationinrigcountgrowth

56、fromthelastupdate,down10rigsand 5 rigs, respectively. We will listen closely to ETs and MPLXs 4Q conference calls for cadence into 2019 volume expectations.Figure 7: Top 25 Processors: Oil Rig Count YoY Change as of December 28th, 20185550494755504947453529201917161414141311101010TargaResources62Wes

57、tern Gas Summit WPX DCPMidstream CrestwoodMidstreamEnergy Transfer EnLink WTG GasProcessing,L.P. ChevronCorporationAmerican Midstream PartnersLPMidmarGas, ONEOK Partners, VaqueroMidstream Lucid EnergyGroupAnadarko PetroleumCorporationEagleClaw Brazos DelawareLLC Mustang GasProducts, Great SaltPlains

58、Midstream PVRMidstreamLLC Canyon MidstreamPartnersSuperior Pipeline Company (UnitCorp.)Source:PoweredbyUBSEvidenceLab,BakerHughes;Note:Rigcountismeasuredintheareawithina25-mileradius of each companys processing asset footprint(area-weighted)Who Will Benefit from Changes in Gas Rig Count?Theaverage4Q

59、18gasrigcountwas194,up8rigsQoQ,up16rigsYoYandmodestly belowtherecentpeakof200rigsinmid-May.Webelievethestagnantrigcountgrowth couldpotentiallycurbproductiongrowthinto1H19fromgasoperatedbasins.Sincethe last update of the rig model, the U.S. oil rig count has grown by 22 rigs (885 oil rigs total).Thel

60、argerincreaseinoilrigsstressesthegrowingimportanceofassociatedgas (i.e.Permian/Bakken/SCOOP/STACKproduction)infuturenatgasproduction.U.S.gas rigs are located primarily in three producing regions Marcellus (57 gas rigs as of 12/28/2018), Haynesville (52 gas rigs as of 12/28/2018) and Utica (17 gas ri