通信行业深度报告：5G产业链加速推进下游应用场景逐步落地

1、1. .51.1.2019.51.2.2019.61.2.1. 71.2.2. 91.3.2019.102. 5G. 102.1.G. G. G. 132.2.5G.142.2.1. 5G. 142.2.2. 152.2.3. 162.3.172.3.1. 172.3.2. 192.3.3. 233. 5G. 243.1.243.1.1. 243.1.2. 293.2.303.3.313.4.CDN.334.354.1.000063.SZ5G.354.2.300308.SZ.364.3.002281.SZM2M374.4.300310.SZIDC.384.5.300098.SZ.395.401

2、2019-6-14. 522019-6-14. 532019-6-14. 642019-6-14. 65. 76. 77. 88. 89. 910. 9112018. 10122018. 10135G66.11145G.11155G. 12165G. 13175G5G13185G14195GRAN. 1520OTN5G15215G. 15225G. 15235Gmassive 1524CRAN. 1725DRAN. 1726. 1827. 1928. 20295G20305G2031. 2132. 2133. 2234. 2335. 23362017. 2337. 2438. 2539. 26

3、40. 2641. 2742. 2743. 2744. 2745. 2846. 2847. 2948. 2949. 30505. 30512019Q1. 3052. 3153. 3154. 3155/. 31563357IDC. 33588IDC. 33598IDC. 3360CDN. 34613415G162CRANDRAN173. 184. 245. 326. 34. 35. 36. 37. 38. 391. 1.1.2019 5G61420195G61420.84%30021.40%30019.64%300112019-6-14470042003700320027002200170019

4、-0519-0319-0519-0319-0118-0918-0718-0518-0318-0117-0917-0717-0517-0317-0116-0916-0716-0516-0316-01Wind8Wind848.70%31.66%31.29%26.94%222019-6-1450.040.030.020.010.00.0WindWind58.15X28.40X201935.56X2614TTM 35.56X242.60X 33.88XTTM32.08X32019-6-14Wind442019-6-14706050403020100WindWind1.2.2019 SW2019Q116

5、89.820.4%2016 Q12018Q11024.612019Q14G4G55windSW2019Q182.386.762018Q154.072019Q18.6266wind1.2.1.4G20193G4G20195.46%201620195.46%2009-20133G520144G953.495G953.495G5G3275G327 5000400030002000100002009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E17.7%9.7%17.7%9.7%12.9% 11.4% 16.4%7.2%5.5%-7.4%-15.

6、1%-13.1%-18.8%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%-25%60-80201958029.18%5G60-80201941.48%9.8%880201020112012201320142015201620172018311.60255.30311.60255.30229.20169.60154.20237.70278.00214.6182.00 170.620%-20%-40%-60%7804.1%2019 5G 7804.1%9025.10% 26.38% 1200100050%40%30%20%10%0%-10%02010201120122013201420152016201

7、72018-20%201920194.5pct20195G14995G1725G 10%5G16745.5% 10.2%10102500731.30684.60731.30684.60684.13623.70608.00504.80231.30554.77285.89356.72150010000%-10%0201020112012201320142015201620172018-20%201920195G9662015GG9662015GQ1201820182018122018SAAS5G 4G20194G5G 1.3.2019 20195G4G 5G 5GeMBB2018IDC IDCID

8、C5G 2.1.2.1.1.5G5G5G5G5G2019665G 2019665G13135G66201220125G5G5G 5GR15 R152700 27005G HYPERLINK /keyword/default.asp?key=3G 3G/TD-SCDMA5G4G HYPERLINK /keyword/default.asp?key=TD%2DLTE /TD-LTE5G HYPERLINK /keyword/default.asp?key=3G 3G/TD-SCDMA5G14145G172.6GHz5G940405G 5G10 5G3535055G2700 65G5G1.715G1

9、0100 5GCPE7000 1.715G1010015155GC1143005G100 3005G5G22201812VMware5G HYPERLINK /keyword/default.asp?key=SIM%BF%A8 SIM HYPERLINK /keyword/default.asp?key=SIM%BF%A8 SIM20145G20175G5G5G5G175G5G5G5G2.1.2.20145G20175G5G5G5G175G5G5G5G5G 5G5G 5G200 2019665G5G5G5G175G4016165G5GG20195G5G 33733n5G 175G 175G5G

10、5G5G5G654OPPO vivo95G5G HYPERLINK /tags/te/ TEFNTTOrange HYPERLINK /tags/德州 5G5G20205G2005G501005G2018185G5G405G5G5G5G5GAAU DUCUCUDU4G/5G5G195GRAN 205G ITU-2020 5G5G 215G 225G ITU-2020 5GITU-2020 5G5GAAU5G5GAAU5G4G1.55GMassive 626 4G1.55GMassive 626235G235Gmassive MIMO50912020 50915G2075G20715G5G25G

11、100G200G4G1.5-25G5G5G25G100G200G4G1.5-25G400G5GRAN5GRAN5G5G5GRAN4G/LTEBBURRUCUDUAAUBBUCUDU5G RAN4GCRAN5G CRAN5G355GDRAN5G 81DRAN5G2425IMT-2020IMT-20205G4G5G4G2.525G50G200G/400G500 25G50G4300-52003000 10002CRANDRAN42-654G210002CRANDRAN42-65CRANCRAN3DRAN855G55G1*(N-1)+15G=1*(N-1)+442.03*(15-1)+4.65=33

12、.07Gbs2.03*(8-1)+4.65=18.86Gbs44666=*=* */2*33.07*6*4/2*1/2=198.42Gbps*/2*18.86*6*4/2*1/2=113.16Gbps444888=*=* */2*198.42*8*4/2*1/4=793.68Gbs*/2*113.16*8*4/2*1/4=452.64Gbs20172.3.1.201720178USTR301201831974301 301 20185301201852018 720187682350025%92410%25%200010%201951010%25%200025%20187325025%825%

13、8160186182626332018.2.27-2018.3.32018.5.3-2018.5.42018.5.15-2018.5.192018.6.2-2018.6.42019.1.30-2019.1.312019.2.14-2019.2.152019.2.21-2019.2.242019.3.28-2019.3.292019.4.3-2019.4.52019.4.30-2019.5.12019.5.9-2019.5.1027275GG2018 2018 80%80%20152018201828% 20182018 282817% 19705005%9%17% 19705005%9%5G5

14、G5G5G5G20185G20185G7212 1015 721210155G5G295G 305G , ETSI, ETSI3132201632016320173372018 4167201734353474713201867Ross 4713303010410201810201872018201845G2018125G20191292351620685IntelXilinxBroadcomQualcommLumentum521Qorvo5235JEDECSDPCI-SIGG 4G90%10Gb/s 90%10Gb/s1-21-225Gb/s DFB201710Gb/s50%25Gb/s3%

15、25Gb/s PIN35362017 10G100GSumitoto(GaNNXP Infineon(LDMOS)4Sumitoto(GaNNXPInfineon(LDMOS)5G5G06080CODECT190 1992-1995 3790 90E1E1202038MCUMCUMCUMCUPolycom Cisco392017 32%201732%40406%7%9%9%9%20%201820%20184142OVUMLightcountingICUICU4344OVUMLightcounting202020132.542018243.1160 202020132.542018243.145

16、30024.00%25023.00%22.00%20021.00%15020.00%10019.00%5018.00%017.00%2013201420152016201720182019E2020E %Cisco10%6%7%10%6%7%(36%) Polycom 2417%4617%36%(36%) Polycom 2417%4617%36%10%24%3.1.2.4748H.264 H.264 49ITUH.262H.263H.264H.263+ISO/IECMPEG1MPEG2MPEG4MPEG4part2part10MPEG7MPEG213.2.A28.8%27.2%21.3%20

17、162019 10%10%IHS Markit2018620191240()(YOY)(YOY)()()(YOY)(YOY)()(YOY)2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/3150%45%40%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%8765432102018/3/312019/3/31()()()(YOY)(YOY)(YOY)140%120%100%80%60%40%20%0%1.601.401.201.000.800.600.400.200.001.80 160%505505512019Q1WindWindWindWind7

18、0023%60070023%60022%50022%30021%20021%100020%201420152016201720182019()YOYYOY)(YOY)(2014201520162017201820190%02%2004%4008%6%60010%80012%100016%14%120018%1400GarnterGarnter54%79%69% /17%24%24%54555455/80%70%80%70%60%50%30%20%10%0%2014/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/3125%20%15%10%5%0%2014

19、/12/312015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31WindWindWindWind3.3.IDCIDCIDC50%50%2013.12015.32017 440 2017.82017 2018.9(2018)PUE1.4 2019.12020 6;PUE1.3 PUE1.4 IDC2018IDC2018520166.8ZB202120.6ZB 2016202188%2021 24.7%2016 202188%202195%2016-202126.6%5G5GIDCIDC5657IDC IDC 88IDC588IDC598IDC 35030%30025%

20、25020%20015%15010010%505%00%70 60504030201002015/12/312016/12/312017/12/312018/12/31IDC 3.4.5GCDN2019CDN116380CDN1839CDNCDN117393CDN30%201730%20175GVR/ARCDN5GVR/ARCDN606120070%18060%16014050%12040%1008030%6020%4010%2000%2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018CDN(, )YOYIDC CDNCDNC

21、DNCDNIO IOCDNCDN66CDN + +IoT ENSCDN130070 90T CDNCDNCDNAI+CDN600CDN50010TB 2016 2016CDN3000 4. 4.1.000063.SZ5G 2019Q12018855.1369.84252.88%1069.84Q18.6254.072019Q18.6254.075G20185G20185G5G305G5GMassive GlobalData5G 5G 5G CoreNB-IoT 5G30005GNR/NexGenCore 5G30007000 48.8-2021PE28221877.65G61.3 48.8-20

22、21PE28221877.65G5G5G2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E108,81585,513101,034120,298145,594%7.49%-21.41%18.15%19.07%21.03%4,568-6,9844,8756,1297,756%293.78%-252.88%-169.81%25.72%26.54%1.09-1.671.161.461.8530.11-19.7028.2222.4417.743.034.174.053.402.824,1934,1934,1934,1934,1934.2.117%40%ICP23400G2019 20204100G40

23、0G ()5G15G14G5G100G/200G/400G6G/10G25G4G10G/100GRRU+BBUAAU+DU+CU50G/100G(500 0)4G 1002.523G ()1002.51500mPSM42500m2019intelluxtera100G400G20190217.27/-20217.27/PE35X/24X/20X 2017A2018A2019E2020E2021E2,3575,1565,7777,6429,384%1690.82%118.76%12.03%32.28%22.80%1626237271,0261,245%1506.36%285.82%16.69%4

24、1.08%21.37%0.230.871.021.441.74258.5446.6134.5024.4620.1510.426.083.483.052.65474475714714714(1)2011.45 8183G4G 2011.4530.48%30 (2)2018180055002019 (3)20182018 18.61%2018/76.49673918.61%2018/76.49673946.60%14.15%2019-20217.87 11.061.712.323.141.061.44PE33242017A2018A2019E2020E2021E3624767871,1061,514%34.16%31.39%65.32%40.49%36.92%97125171232314%1.75%28.54%37.05%35.97%35.44%0.600.771.061.441.9546.7832.1233.0424.30