瑞信ESG研究：可持续发展的新时代

1、Credit Suisse ESG Research A New Era of Sustainability9 September 2020 Equity Research USGlobal ESG Research TeamBetty Jiang+ 1 212 325 6259 HYPERLINK mailto:betty.jiang betty.jiangEugne Klerk+ 44 207 883 4678 HYPERLINK mailto:eugene.klerk eugene.klerkMichael Ziffer+ 1 212 538 0568 HYPERLINK mailto:

2、michael.ziffer michael.zifferPhineas Glover+ 61 2 8205 4448 HYPERLINK mailto:phineas.glover phineas.gloverDISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE ANDTHE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does

3、 and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment de

4、cision.Table of Contents HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 ESG and Sustainability at Credit Suisse 3 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 What Made 2020 Different for ESG? 9Multi-Decade Mega Trend 18Implications to Investors: Performance, Fund Flows, and Cost of Capital 25ESG Strategy and Adoption Hurdles 31 HYPERLINK l _

5、TOC_250003 Governance Considerations 41 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Environmental Considerations 46 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Social Considerations 60Environmental and Social Considerations by Sector 64 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Appendix 80ESG and Sustainability at Credit SuisseSustainability Is a Core Func

6、tion at Credit SuisseNewly Created SRI Division Committed to Providing Sustainable SolutionsSustainability, Research & Investment Solutions (SRI)Sustainability Strategy, Advisory & FinanceDriving CSs sustainability strategySecurities ResearchThought-leadership covering corporates and industries for

7、institutional clientsInvestment Solutions & ProductsEconomics, thematic views, and sustainable investment solutions for WM clientsMarketingLeveraging client and market insights to drive divisional strategiesThematic, ESG integration into sector researchThematic, ESG integration into WM clients portf

8、oliosSustainability messaging into outbound communicationsWho We Are Leaders of Credit Suisse ESG EffortsDiverse Backgrounds to Provide Differentiated and Balanced PerspectivesSustainability Strategy, Advisory & Finance (SSAF):Marisa Drew (Global Head of SSAF): Marisa is responsible for formulating

9、and driving a sustainability strategy throughout the bank, implementing the development of sustainable products and services for clients and representing Credit Suisse on important sustainability issues. Importantly, Marisa works with newly named Sustainability Leaders in each division and function

10、to execute this mandate. Marisa was previously Co-Head of the EMEA Investment Banking and Capital Markets Division, and has been in the investment banking business for over 30 years.Dr. Daniel Wild (Global Head of ESG Strategy): Daniel leads the banks efforts in the development of ESG products and s

11、ervices, the evolution of Credit Suisses ESG framework, and the integration of ESG across the divisions of the bank globally. Prior to joining Credit Suisse in September 2019, Daniel was Co-CEO at RobecoSAM AG, a pioneer and leader in sustainable asset management. Daniel had been with RobecoSAM sinc

12、e 2006 and held various management positions in the areas of sustainability research and investments. He was also responsible for RobecoSAMs proprietary corporate sustainability assessment, which forms the backbone of the S&P Dow Jones Sustainability Index families.ESG Securities Research:Eugne Kler

13、k (Global Head of ESG Research): Following a career of more than 20 years in investment banking, fund management, and research, Eugne is currently responsible for Credit Suisses Global ESG research product. Prior to this, Eugne was responsible for the firms Global Thematic Research and European Smal

14、l- and Mid-Cap Research. In addition, Eugne is a frequent leading author in a range of publications from the Credit Suisse Research Institute. Prior to his current roles, Eugne was an emerging markets analyst with a focus on fixed income and credit as well as on equities.Betty Jiang (Head of US ESG

15、Research): In addition to leading thematic research efforts in the US, Betty works with US sector analysts to integrate ESG considerations into their company-specific research and provide unique and relevant ESG-related insights across various sectors/industries. Prior to her current role, Betty cov

16、ered the US Oil & Gas Exploration and Production sector with a focus on the small/mid-cap companies for 12 years and was a member of the #2 ranked E&P team by Institutional Investor for the majority of that time. With her energy sector expertise and buy-side experience, she brings an analytical appr

17、oach to ESG analysis focusing on sustainability issues that are financially material to investors.Phineas Glover (Head of APAC ESG Research): Based in Sydney, Phineas has over 12 years of experience in ESG research and portfolio management, and currently heads regional efforts to deliver coordinated

18、 and insightful content and embed ESG factors into the banks broader research offering. Phineas previously co-founded the UK Investor Forum, a membership organization now representing institutions with 14 trillion global AuM. The Forum combines investment and ESG disciplines into an engagement frame

19、work that focuses on long-term value creation.Kevin Paul (HOLT ESG Specialist): Kevin spearheads integration of ESG considerations in HOLT, including the proprietary Business Sustainability Rating. Kevin provides transition review service for client portfolios/sectors and focuses on incorporating ex

20、ternalities into financial modelling (e.g., carbon-adjusted CFROI, coverage ratios, leverage, scenario analysis, etc.). Kevin has been with Credit Suisse since 2015.Credit Suisse ESG Securities ResearchIntegrating All PerspectivesTop-down thematic thought leadershipInsights from the fabric of indust

21、ries and market participantsCS ESGResearchBottom-up sector-level ESGintegrationMismatch Between Supply and Demand of ESG ContentCredit Suisse ESG Research to Help Fill Information GapAccording to research conducted by Peregrine Communications, there was a 67% increase globally in ESG-related content

22、 from asset managers across Tier 1 media as well as a 63% increase in searches globally for ESG-related content during 2019. However, the same study uncovered a disconnect between the ESG content that asset managers are putting out and the content that their audiences are looking for.Peregrines rese

23、arch found the most over-indexed topics (i.e., there is more content available on these topics than there is organic audience demand) tend to be high-level generic material such as environment, social issues, governance concerns, equities, climate change, and performance. Meanwhile, areas that are u

24、nder-represented include more specialized topics such as materiality and measurement, data transparency, active ownership, and product-specific content.Indeed, these results are largely consistent with other related surveys weve found that show one of the biggest impediments to incorporating ESG fac

25、tors into an investment analysis is the lack of quality, consistent, and relevant data and company disclosures.With the help our sector analysts (who not only have the sector expertise but also relationships with corporates and industry thought leaders), we aim to address the information gap within

26、the under-represented themes by focusing on the most financially material ESG factors.Most Over-Indexed ESG TopicsGovernanceEquitiesSocietal BenefitsImpactMost Under-Indexed ESG Topics Broken into Four BucketsMateriality and MeasurementData TransparencyActive Ownership Product-Specific Content Measu

27、rementESG RatingsESG ScoresESG DataReportingTechnologyActive OwnershipShareholder ActivismProxy VotingESG ETFESG IndexPrivate EquityESG DemandESG ReturnsPollutionEnvironmentEmerging MarketsMaterialityESG TaxonomyBest-in-Class InvestmentSupply Chain TransparencyCredit Suisse ESG research focuses on a

28、ddressing the mismatchFixed IncomePrivate CapitalCredit Suisse ESG Research Assisting Clients in Multiple Ways 1. Top-Down Investment Framework 2. Thought Leadership 3. Bottom-Up Sector Research 4. HOLT on ESGWhat Made 2020 Different for ESG?Pivotal Growth in ESG Awareness During 2020An acceleration

29、 of key drivers culminated into an explosion of sustainability conversations across the investment community:Surge in ESG funds and fund flows: Morningstar shows 23 new ESG funds launched in 1H 2020, and it expects a record number of launches in 2020. US sustainable funds also hit record net flows i

30、n 2019 (four times the previous high), and this year is already on track to surpass last year.Rising awareness of climate change: This has come from a variety of factors including (1) the World Economic Forums 2020 Global Risks Perception Survey highlighting environmental concerns as the top 5 long-

31、term risks by likelihood; (2) Larry Finks (CEO of BlackRock) letter to CEOs noting climate change as the defining factor in companies long-term prospects; (3) the COVID-19 global pandemic and an increasing number of high- impact natural disasters; (4) governments around the world stepping up “green”

32、 funding support; and (5) rise of social activism (e.g., Greta Thunberg).Resilient ESG performance record during the pandemic-driven downturn: Companies with strong ESG credentials have outperformed broader markets year to date. ESG Focus indices, as defined by MSCI, have outperformed by 230bps glob

33、ally, 240bps in the US and 300 bps in Europe.Increasing regulatory mandates and investor pressure for ESG-related disclosures: European Union is implementing a full suite of sustainability regulations which are coming into effect starting 2021. An increasing number of companies are publishing report

34、s aligned with the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) and the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) standards. The 3,000 signatories of Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI) are also required to report climate performance starting this year.100908070605040302

35、010020102011201220132014201520162017201820192020Google Searches(1) for “ESG Investing”Source: Google Trendsand Its Driving Changes Material to InvestorsNew Corporate StrategiesCompanies across the industry spectrum are redefining long-term business models and practices: European Integrated Oils comm

36、itting to reducing emissions of energy produced and increasing share of low-carbon products supplied, Banks reducing financing to fossil fuel developments and committing to more transparency on the carbon footprint of their lending activities, Auto manufacturers of ICE vehicles transitioning into el

37、ectric vehicles, and Utilities shifting away from fossil fuels to renewables for power generation.Emerging Sectors and DisruptorsShares of companies involved in new and emerging pro-sustainability businesses such as hydrogen, sustainable food and agriculture, telehealth, and electric vehicles have b

38、een surging recently in part due to increased enthusiasm for ESG- and climate-friendly investments.M&A ActivityRecent notable examples include Dominion Energy selling its natural gas pipeline and storage assets, Sunrun agreeing to acquire Vivint Solar, Air Products and Chemicals investing in a world

39、-scale green hydrogen-based ammonia production facility powered by renewable energy. Even in the energy sector, Chevrons acquisition of Noble Energy would improve its ESG profile given greater exposure to lower-emission natural gas vs. crude oil.Regulatory and Societal PressureIn the energy sector,

40、it is not only very difficult to build fossil fuel infrastructure (e.g., Keystone XL and Atlantic Coast pipelines) given rising environmental activist campaigns, but operating assets could also be at risk (e.g., Dakota Access pipeline); technology companies must improve data security and privacy (e.

41、g., Twitter hack); the gig industry (e.g., Uber, Lyft) is under pressure to convert independent contractors to employees with benefits; university endowments are committing to divest from or no longer invest in fossil fuel stocks.Social ActivismDue to the rise of social media, an increasingly aware

42、and engaged public could make a real impact on companies reputations by spotlighting issues they deem to be “unethical.” Civil rights groups were able to urge 1,000 companies to stop paying for ads on Facebook in July to protest the platforms handling of hate speech and misinformation. Boycotts of f

43、ashion brand Boohoo are also spreading across the web following allegations of “slave labor” at the companys factories.Shifting Consumer PreferencesA growing urgency to reduce the worlds carbon footprint, coupled with increased health awareness, is also causing changing consumer buying behavior (e.g

44、., increased demand for EVs, plant-based foods, organically sourced products, etc.). Notably, this shift is mostly driven by the “younger” generations, which inevitably will play an increasingly important role in financial decisions and investments.Sustainability Is Having a More Material Impact on

45、Stock PerformanceCompanies with Superior ESG Credentials Are Outperforming(MSCI ESG Indexes YTD Performance Relative to Benchmarks)Stock Dispersion Is Emerging in Many FormsWhile the historical returns of ESG investing is less than tangible, its clearthat the increasing focus on sustainability is dr

46、iving meaningful stock dispersions.But “good ESG” doesnt equate to a “good ESG stock.” Wed bucket the stock implications to those companies that (1) demonstrate superior ESG credentials on material issues that are specific to each sector, and (2) benefit financially (e.g., better margins, new revenu

47、e opportunities) as a result of increasing focus on sustainability. Companies that can demonstrate both are clear winners.As a team, our mission is to focus on and identify both sets of criteria to differentiate companies, with the help of sustainability experts and sector analysts.3.5% MSCI World E

48、SG Focus Index3.0% MSCI Europe ESG Focus Index2.5% MSCI USA ESG Focus Index2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% Price Performance-0.5% 1/2/202/2/203/2/204/2/205/2/206/2/207/2/208/2/209/2/20Relative benchmarks are MSCI World, MSCI Europe, and MSCI USACompanies Improving Sustainability Profile Are Outperforming P

49、eers(Euro Renewables-Exposed vs. Non-Renewables Utilities)New Growth Areas Are Being Re-Priced(Basket of Hydrogen-Exposed Stocks vs. MSCI World Index)140% Euro Utilities Renewable Leaders200% Hydrogen-exposed Companies150% MSCI World Index100% 50%0%120%100%Euro Utilities Renewable LaggardsShare Pric

50、e Performance80%Share Price Performance60%40%20%0%-20%-40%9/12/20169/12/20179/12/20189/12/2019-50%1/1/20202/1/20203/1/20204/1/20205/1/20206/1/20207/1/20208/1/2020Sources: the BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONAL service, Refinitiv and Credit Suisse research9 September 2020 12Consensus Emerging Around ESG Disclosu

51、re Best PracticesFour Organizations/Frameworks Will Dominate Future ESG Disclosures & ConversationsWhile there is a plethora of ESG data providers/organizations/initiatives/frameworks available, we believe these four will become theprimary focus as companies increasingly improve ESG transparency:Sus

52、tainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB)Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD)Develops sustainability accounting standards to help companies disclose material information in SEC filings in a way that is decision-useful for investors; its materiality map is particularly usefu

53、l, as it identifies key material ESG issues specific to each industry.Provides a framework that enables companies to disclose the impact climate change has on their businesses; particularly valued for its scenario analysis, which identifies hidden risks and opportunities, tests the impact of potenti

54、al outcomes, and helps with decision-making.EU Sustainability Regulations (in process)Builds the foundation for harmonized sustainability-related disclosures, which may influence ESG disclosure standards and rulemakings outside of Europe; EU taxonomy helps to define “green” and creates a framework t

55、o differentiate financial products and corporate performance on sustainability matters.Science-Based Targets Initiative (SBTi)Helps companies determine and set emissions reduction targets by specifying how much and how quickly they need to reduce their GHG emissions; increases focus on scope 3 emiss

56、ion disclosures and target setting, which could change how corporates manage upstream supply chains and downstream products and services.Developing ESG Themes and TrendsKey Risks and Opportunities over the Next 12 Months and Longer TermNear-Term Themes and Risks to Watch (Next 12 Months)Theme to Wat

57、chE, S, and/or G RelevanceKey Issues and Sector ImpactsUS Presidential Election in November (biggest near-term risk to markets)EE and SSBiden victory means potentially sweeping changes to US climate and environmental policies; most positive for utilities, alternative energy, infrastructure/building

58、productsand auto OEMs of EVs; most negative for companies with exposure to fossil fuels Green government stimulus packages to revive economies will benefit clean-tech providers (e.g., EVs, hydrogen, energyefficiency, etc.); company social policies across all sectors likely to rise in importanceGiven

59、 the pandemic-exposed vulnerabilities in the global supply chain, we see a potential shift to deglobalization via onshoring or nearshoring. ESG considerations will also be increasingly incorporated in the evaluation of companies in the supply chainIncreasing investor pressure will cause more compani

60、es to adopt ESG-friendly initiatives, commitments and strategies asas well as improve related disclosures; appliesto all sectors but heavy-emission sectors prone to most meaningful changePost-COVID RecoveryRe-evaluation of Global Supply ChainRise of Corporate Sustainability CommitmentsE, S, and GImp