少年维特的烦恼

1、毕业设计/论文外文文献翻译院 系 经济管理学院专业班级 金融1202姓 名 陈雯雯原 文出处that Social Media Can BeUsed for Credit Scoring评 分指导教师 刘绮涛蔡危微华中科技大学武昌分校20 16年 3月 5日将社交媒体用于个人信用评分的新颖途径关于出借人在发展中国家面对的挑战：对借贷公司而言，在将贷款发放之前，他们想弄清几个问题。他们想知道你认为自 己是什么样的人，想确证你的确是个“好人”（goodperson）。我这里所说的“好人”， （是指）值得信任的人，可以把钱借给他的人，而且是会还钱的人。这是个很有挑战性的工作。在美国和其他发达国家，做

2、到这一点可能要容易些。人们有 多种途径获取有关你的数据。（出借人）可以找到你，与你面对面交流，也可以找到你 身边的人了解你。事实上，在这些国家，已经有了完成这个工作的模式化途径，比如， 查看你的信用历史，信用历史收集了你在一定时期内的财务数据。另外，他们还可以查 阅你的信用评分，之后对你做出判断。但在这个世界的其他地区一一比如发展中国家，借贷公司与人交流则是一项非常艰巨的 任务。在我看来，（社交媒体）已经成了是否给要某个人发放一笔贷款的替代方法，理 由有四个。不妨看看印度、墨西哥、菲律宾和哥伦比亚的情况。我们可以看到，它们是采用这 类信用评分实践最频繁的国家。这些国家适合采用这类方法的理由在于

3、，首先，人们缺 乏获取资金的途径，但已经有数量众多的人进入了中产阶级。他们出身于数十年来一直 务农的家庭。而现在，这些家庭的年轻人中第一次有了大学毕业生，这些年轻人希望得 到贷款，可他们要想获得贷款，就必须逾越银行系统的诸多障碍在这些国家，大部分人面临的一个重大问题，同时也是这些国家偏远地区的人都要面临 的问题，是他们缺少（获得）金融服务的资源。他们没处去找银行的分支机构，所以也 就无法获得贷款。最近的银行分支机构离他们可能都有3小时车程。如果想一想获得贷 款的所有可能性，或者说，想一想交通条件的缺乏情况，那就意味着如果想获得哪怕最 小的一笔贷款，你也必须在往返路途上花上一天的时间。所以，那些

4、地方确实缺乏获得 金融服务的实体条件，这是我们通常都不会想到的。在沃顿的校园里，几乎在每个角落 都有一个银行的分支机构，可在世界上的其他地方，这就成了一个很大、很大的问题。 第三，当然，在世界上的任何地方，如果你要申请信用贷款，就都要面临很多的官僚主 义程序和大量的案头工作。我曾和从事这种业务的很多公司交流过。一家从事这类工作 的机构的技术总监列举了这样的例证：如果你生活在亚洲的某个国家，现在需要一笔贷 款，如果你是个“好人”一一也就是说，如果你的收入不错，你有一份很好的工作一一 在这种条件下去申请一笔贷款，他们会提出一些毫不相干的、几乎无法接受的标准，比 如，你应该在某家公司工作满一年。在很

5、多发展中国家，换工作是非常常见的事情，如 果人们擅长自己所做的工作，尤其是身处科技领域，他们往往每半年就会换一次工作， 他们总是为自己寻求下一个最好的机会。不需要看别的地方，只要看看人们在申请信用卡时因为不合格而被拒的情况即可。 除了其他条件以外，他们还有这种荒谬的规定，比如：我要给你的雇主打电话（核实）， 而且我给你雇主只会打一次电话。如果你的雇主恰好在那个时间没在办公桌前，你就会 再一次被拒。第四个障碍是，即便我可以给贷款申请人打电话，我也没有获取他的数据的现成途 径。很多国家都没有信用记录，没有任何金融支付的历史信息。某个人可能是第一次申 请一笔贷款，所以，我和这个人并没有既往关系。在这

6、样的环境中，我就必须寻找能获 取某人品行数据的其他途径了。关于社交媒体在借贷行业的应用不断增长：在这种环境中，你可以获得有关某人手机使用情况非常详尽的数据。因为你了解了 手机的使用情况，你也就能获得他们使用社交网络的信息了。其次，因为他们都用 Facebook. Twitter和其他社交网络，所以，你也可以从这些资源获取有关他们的信息。 对一家聪明的公司来说，这种环境为他们提供了获取他人个性信息的另一条途径。这也 是那些打破金融服务覆盖系统的公司发现的途径，他们可以通过这条途径获取你的社交 网络数据，而这些数据则能为判断你是什么样的人提供一些佐证一一首先，你是个真实 的人。第二，如果你是个“好

7、人”，你一定与身边的人保持良好的关系，你一定有一定 数量的朋友，你拥有这个账户一定已经有一段时间了。比起查看你的财务数据来，通过 借助社交媒体，（这些公司）收集到的有关你的信息要多得多。因此，它们转向这个方 向就是自然而然的了。我们知道，这种实践正在很多国家展开。Lenddo就是一个很好的例证。这家公司在 墨西哥、菲律宾和哥伦比亚等国与出借人合作开展业务，它在用户许可的前提下收集并 提供他们的信息。公司从社交媒体收集信息后会对数据进行处理，通过数据处理来判断 你是否是个好人，你是否是个真人，你是否拥有获得一笔贷款的资格，需要再次说明的 是，我这里所说的“好人”，是指有资格接受信用贷款的人。Le

8、nddo将这些信息提供给 出借人，出借人会最后确定你是否有资格获得一笔贷款。关于为什么说这是一种复古而不是个新潮流：虽然听起来是新事物，可这种实践可以追溯到数十年之前，事实上，我认为，甚至 可以追溯到一个世纪或者更久远的年代。以前，当你需要一笔贷款的时候，（银行）会 考察你认识什么人。他们试图通过与你认识的人进行交流来确定你是否有获得贷款的资 格。有这样一个故事，以前，有个人向一个知名银行家申请一笔贷款，那位银行家说：“可是，我不能给你贷款，你只需和我一起去公司停车场，别人就能向我证明这一点。” 道理是一样的。你认识谁很重要，你的社交网络也很重要。这些公司信赖的观念一一你 交往的人，你的社交网

9、络里的人，在品性和行为上与你非常相似一一是一种非常强大、 非常有效的观念，可供他们有效利用。他们只需观察一下你身边的人的行为，就能（精 准地）猜测到你的行为方式可能是什么样的。关于这种方法在美国的应用情况：很显然，为什么我们在美国看不到这种实践的理由在于，（可供取用的）有关人们的数 据非常多。但是，我们依然可以通过查看他或她的社交网络来改善信用评分的准确性。 我们之所以看不到这种方法的应用，无疑是因为监管问题。在美国，任何财务数据，甚 至任何与财务数据相关的信息，都会受到严格的保护。我们有关于歧视的法规。一家很 聪明的从事这种业务的公司，可能并不想在美国开展业务，其原因是，如果我查看了你 的社

10、交网络，如果我根据你的社交网络情况拒绝给你发放一笔贷款，那么，我可能最终 会摊上一场歧视官司。举例来说，如果我的朋友们是同性恋者，就可能成为拒绝为我发放贷款的一个理由。让 人们在某个社交网络上聚集到一起的很多特点，都可能成为歧视诉讼的缘由。我认为， 大部分在这种环境中运营的公司都担心出现这种情况，即便他们在信用评分系统中并没 有采用任何这类东西，他们也会觉得这会让他们面临严格监管的风险，或者会在美国摊 上某些官司关于研究方法的确立：我们对这项实践的研究，始于最初听到的某些公司的消息，这些公司为了批准你的贷款 申请，要求你提供自己的Twitter或Facebook账户密码。当然，这是非常不同寻常

11、的 要求，也是完全不合传统的业务。随后，我们开始更多地了解了这项实践在美国和世界 其他地方的情况。我们（当时想）：“我们可以研究这个系统吗？首先，我们可以研究 一下，使用社交网络数据是否能更精确地评估某个人的信用可靠性呢？其次，一旦（贷 款公司）采用社交网络数据，一旦人们意识到（贷款公司）在使用这类数据，他们会在 这个系统中博弈吗？在某种情况下，是不是从中得到的是更不精准的信息呢？我们并没有把信息分成A、B、C和D等类别，我们关注的是采集到的一般信息，我们想 知道的是，你的信息和我的信息之间是否有某种程度的相似性。比如说，我们都在同一 个社交网络，这就说明我们的品性一定有某种程度的相似性，你我

12、之间可能有（非常重 要的）相似性，也可能在无关痛痒的方面有相似性。但是，我们两人之间一定存在某些 我们都喜欢的东西，这种共同喜欢的东西就是我们相似性的基础，也一定存在着我们喜 欢一起做的事情。当我们想了解某个人时，如果我们可以采集到这个人的社交网络好友 的额外信息，那么，我们就能更好地确证我们对这个人的判断，就能对他更好地验证检 查关于人们是否会在这个系统中博弈的问题：你会因此而在这个系统中博弈吗？我们检视了这种可能性。我们发现，是的，的确 有人（会在这个系统中赌输赢），如果他们意识到两人都是在财务上负责的人，那么， 他们就会在社交媒体上向贷款公司表明两人都是“优质客户”（good types

13、），这样可 以表明他们有资格获得贷款。我们发现，人们有丢下其他好友的动机，至少会让自己的 信息、自己与（某些）好友之间的联系不那么容易看到随着时间的延续，他们这种 做法会在社交网络上形成某种形式的“分裂”。“优质客户”，也就是在财务上更有责 任感的人，会远离“劣质客户”（bad types）。“优质客户”会与更多（在财务上负 责的人）联系。“劣质客户”也一样。他们会与数量较少的“劣质客户”联系。随着时 间的推移，市场便会出现“细分”或者“分裂”。信用良好的人更多的会与其他信用良 好的人联系，同时，信用不那么好的人同样也会与其他信用较差的人联系。这种“细分” 或“分裂”的结果是，（把社交媒体当作

14、确定人们信用可靠性工具的）公司会面临两个 挑战：首先，他们现在要从一个数量较小的群体中获取信息了，因为每个人都想在自己 的社交网络中摆脱“劣质客户”。所以，最终获得的有关每个人的数据也较少但公司面临的第二个效应实际上却 是一种正面效应。如果他们可以获得信息，如果他们查阅你的信息时了解到你试图用这 个系统博弈，或者每个人都想用这个系统博弈，而你是个“优质客户”，那么，你周边 的人也很可能是优质客户。当我看到你周边的是一群优质客户时，我对你就会更有信心， 更相信你是个（在财务上负责的人）。因此，这种方式会提高判断的精度。如果有足够 多的人试图在这个系统中博弈，那么，他们就能带来积极变化与根据某个人

15、的历史 数据进行判断相比，人们的社交网络及其社交网络的整体环境能提供更精确的信息. 关于这项实践会传播得多么广泛的问题：毫无疑问，这样的业务在美国以外的世界正在不断发展。我认为，它也有在美国增 长的潜能。不过只有当监管机构确信，这是减少风险的一条有效途径时，这项实践才会 在美国得到发展，而风险是客观存在的。没人想让无力偿付贷款的人获得一笔贷款，因 为这些贷款是坏账，这会导致金融环境的风险，会导致我们一直面对的各种危机。我们 必须主动出击，我们必须说明，我们想让个人得到更好的评估，我们需要比现在的模式 更好的模式。或许，我们应该放松这类监管措施，或者制订某些免责条款，找到一些个 人的社交媒体数据

16、一一尤其是当他或她想分享这些数据时一一可以被用于评估他们是 否具有获得贷款资格的例证。关于让消费者认同的问题：我一直在想这样一个问题：为什么有些人想与他人分享自己的信息呢？因为在美国 的某些地方，在世界很多其他地方也一样，（展示数据）最终可能证明你是个信用良好 的人。你是个能偿还贷款的人，可你没有把这个信息传递给银行系统的良好途径，就像 我在前面列举的例子那样。即便我是个好员工，即便我受过良好的教育，可我依然要面 对官僚程序和金融系统，要面对那些老规矩，它们就是不适应全新的环境，它们还是会 拒绝我的信贷请求，这样，你就关闭了让我走向更好生活的大门。你让我无法获得抵押 贷款，无法获得汽车贷款或者

17、用于继续教育的贷款。很多道门将这些人关在了外面 关于这一实践如何促进经济增长的问题：我们经常听政治家、企业高管和金融界人士说，我们必须给中产阶级自主权，我们 一定要让人们摆脱贫困，要给他们创造更好生活的机会。可如果人们没有任何改善自己 生活的手段，我们怎么才能达致这些目标呢？比如说，他们要创业，可拿不到向自己农 场投资的贷款，或者无法获得教育贷款。这正是我们喜欢这一实践的原因所在，它给人 们过上更好的生活创造了机会。关于重要的启示：在这一行业运营的公司强调的一点是，你在现实生活中从没见过的人，你可能在生 活中永远也不会遇到的人一一因为他们是你朋友的朋友的朋友一一现在会影响到你的 信用评分。我们

18、讨论的是个高度联通的世界，一个连通性（比以往任何时候）都更高的 世界。所以，这就意味着在你的社交网络中你从未见过的人会影响到你的信用评分。除 此之外，（这些公司）可以关注一切。一旦你让他们进入了你的社交网络，他们就可以 了解任何信息以及你做的每件事情。他们会研究你有多少朋友以及你与他们的联系频度 如何等细节。他们不是坐下来阅读你发布的信息，而是采用某种文本处理方式。我了解 到的是，有些公司会关注你使用“不良词汇”（faultywords）的情况，使用某些表明 （你生活环境）的词汇的情况。一个有趣的例子是，有一家从事这类业务的公司的一位 高管说，他们会研究词汇的使用情况与你的还款能力之间的相关性

19、。使用“请”这个词 的人似乎是不会偿付贷款的人。所以，即便是这种往往意想不到的词汇，与（人们的信 用）也有某些相关性。原因或许与人们每天进行的沟通有关。人们的生活方式当然会影响到他们使用的语 言，会影响到他们提出某些要求时选择使用的语汇。进而，他们使用的词汇就会与他们 偿付贷款的可能性相关了。另外，这些公司还会让你写一个短文或者一段文字解释你申 请这笔贷款的原因。你在书写时会很注意内容，但他们要看的并不一定是你的解释，而 是看你犯了多少语法错误。这些东西同样能证明你的细心程度如何，或许也能说明你对 细节的关注程度如何，当然，也能反映出你的受教育水平。The Surprising Ways th

20、at Social Media Can Be Used for CreditScoringMany employers today are looking at the social media accounts of potential employees to get an idea of the type of person they might be hiring. Theyre not the only ones lending companies are also getting in on the act. And new research shows that some of

21、the more unusual things you post or the people you might be connected to could have an impact on your credit score.The paper, “Credit Scoring with Social Network Data,” was authored by Yanhao Wei, a Ph.D. student in economics at the University of Pennsylvania, Wharton marketing professors Christophe

22、 Van den Bulte and Pinar Yildirim, and Boston University professor Chrysanthos Dellarocas. Yildirim recently discussed their findings on the KnowledgeWharton show on Wharton Business Radio, which you can find on SiriusXM Channel 111.An edited transcript of the conversation appears below.On the chall

23、enges lenders face in the developing world:For the lending companies, there are a few things they would like to verify before they give their money to you. They would like to know that you are who you say you are and that you are indeed a good person. And when I say a good person, I mean someone who

24、m they can trust, whom they can lend money to and expect it to be paid back to them.It is a challenging task. In countries like the United States and other developed nations, this is perhaps slightly easier to do. There are alternate ways of getting data about you. Lenders can go find you, talk to y

25、ou or talk to the people around you. In fact, there are more institutionalized ways of doing this, such as looking at your credit history, which is a way of collecting your financial data over a period of time. They can look up your credit score, and then make a judgment about you.But this is a very

26、 challenging task when we talk about other parts of the world, the nations that are developing. There are four reasons why, in my opinion, social media became an alternate method of deciding whether to give a loan to somebody or not.Think of India, Mexico, the Philippines or Columbia. These are the

27、countries where we see some of these alternate credit-scoring practices most often. The reasons why they find these countries suitable is, first of all, there is a lack of financial access, and yet a huge number of people are moving into the middle class. They used to be in a family that had been fa

28、rming for decades. And now there is the young person who just for the first time in his family graduated from school and is looking for a loan and has to somehow go through the hurdles of the banking system to obtain credit.Third, of course, there is a high level of bureaucracy and a high level of p

29、aperwork involved in any application in any part of the world where you need credit. I have been talking to a lot of the companies that do this type of business. The chief technology officer of . one of the companies that does this type of work cites this example: If youre in one of the Asian countr

30、ies and you need a loan, if youre a decent person if youre making decent money, if you have a great job then you go and apply for a loan. And they have these somewhat irrelevant, almost unacceptable criteria for you to obtain a small loan, such as you should be employed by the same company for about

31、 a year. It just so happens that in many of these developing nations, if people are good at what they do, especially if theyre in technology environments, they keep changing jobs every six months or so. They are looking for the best next opportunity for themselves.So, without looking at anything els

32、e, you just immediately disqualified someone from obtaining access to credit. On top of that, they have these ridiculous rules, such as I need to call your employer, and Ill make only one call to your employer. And if your employer happens to be away from his desk at that point, youre again disquali

33、fied for a loan.The fourth hurdle is that, even if I can call people, I dont have well established ways of obtaining data about you. There is no credit history in many countries. There are no histories of financial payments whatsoever. This might be the first time somebodys applying for a loan anywa

34、y, so I dont have an ongoing relationship with this person. In such environments, I need to look for alternate ways of finding data about peoples character.We talk a lot about the Internet revolution that has happened in many countries, such as we talk about how, in the United States and in develope

35、d nations, the Internet has changed commerce. But the Internet revolution hasnt happened yet in many countries. In many developing countries where landlines never found access to the remote areas, the Internet didnt find access either. In fact, if you look at even the current numbers, only about 26%

36、 of the world has broadband Internet access. Ifs actually a relatively low number.On the growing use of social media in lending:In an environment of this sort, what you are going to end up with are very detailed data about peoples mobile phone use. And because you know mobile phone use, you end up h

37、aving information about social network use as well. And second, because they are also on Facebook, Twitter and other social networks, you also have access to their information from these sources.For a smart company, this creates an alternate way of getting data about peoples personalities. And thats

38、 exactly what these companies that have disrupted the financial access systems have figured out, that they can find data about your social networks, which would provide some sort of verification for who you are first of all, that you are indeed a real person. Second, if youre a good person you must

39、have some good connections with people around you, you must have a certain number of friends, and you must have had this account for a certain period of time. These companies can gather so much more information about you using social media than by looking at your financial data. So it became just na

40、tural for them to move toward this direction.We know that this is happening in many countries. Lenddo is one great example. It operates in Mexico, the Philippines and Columbia. It operates with lenders. It provides and collects information with the permission of the users. It collects information fr

41、om social media and then crunches it. It runs the numbers and figures out whether youre a good person and again, Im saying this in terms of creditworthiness whether youre a real person and whether you should be deserving a loan. And it gives this information to the lender, which then decides to esse

42、ntially qualify you for a loan.On why its more of a throwback than a trend:As new as it sounds, this type of practice goes back many decades, in fact, I think about a century or more. In the old days when you needed a loan, the bank looked at who you knew. It tried to qualify you by talking to the p

43、eople you knew. Theres a story that when someone asked for a loan from a big-named banker back in the day, he said, “Well, I cant give you a loan, but just walk with me to the park and somebody else will.”Its the same idea. Who you know matters. Your social network matters. Twitter The concept that

44、these companies are banking on 一 the idea that who you are with, the people who are in your social network, will have very similar traits and behaviors as you is a very strong, very powerful idea here that they are taking advantage of. Theyre simply looking at the behavior of people around you, and

45、by looking at that, they can guess with accuracy how you are likely to behave.On how the practice is being used in the U.S.:Of course, the reason why we dont see this in the United States is partially because there are a lot of data available about people. But we could still improve somebodys credit

46、 score by looking at his or her social network. The reason why we dont see this is, of course, regulation. Financial data, or anything that may relate to financial data, are heavily protected in the United States. And we have rules about discrimination. The reason why . a company that is smart and o

47、perating in this business may prefer not to be in the United States is because, if Im looking at your social network and if Im denying you for a loan based on your social network, that may end up as a discrimination lawsuit.For example, lefs say my friends are gay, and that might be one of the reaso

48、ns why, for example, I may then feel that Im denied. Many of the traits that bring people together in a social network could be the basis for a discrimination lawsuit. And I believe that most of the companies operating in this environment are simply afraid that, even though theyre not looking at any

49、 of these things as part of their credit-scoring system, they may feel that this puts them at risk for heavy regulation and perhaps some lawsuits in the United States.On how the research formula was created:The way that this started was first hearing about some of the companies that requested your p

50、assword for Twitter or Facebook in order to approve you for a loan. Of course, its a very unusual, very untraditional business. And then we started learning more about this practice that had been happening in the United States and in different parts of the world. We thought, “Can we study the system

51、? And can we look at, first, whether using social network data is going to result in a more accurate assessment of someones credit-worthiness? Second, once companies use this network and once people realize that companies are using these types of data, could they try to game the system, and at some

52、point would this result in less accurate information?We are not necessarily classifying info as A, B, C, D. Were looking at general information collection and if there is a level of similarity between your information and my information. Lets say we are in the same social network. That says we must

53、have similar traits to a certain degree. It could be a very significant similarity, or it could be something very small. But there has to be a certain level of mutual liking between the two of us, which is usually a function of our similarity, of the things that we enjoy doing together. And if we ca

54、n collect additional information from people who are in someones social network, then we simply get better opportunities to clarify our beliefs about the person. We are simply getting verification checks.On whether people could game the system:Could you start gaming the system? We looked at this pos

55、sibility. What we are finding is that yes, indeed, individuals could game the system, if they could know somehow that you are a financially responsible person and I am financially responsible, and we all need to show that we are good individuals to the company on social media so that we can be consi

56、dered worthy of a loan. We find that individuals will have some incentives to drop their friends or at least make the information, the connection of having a friendship with certain people less visible.What that could do over time is cause some sort of fragmentation in social networks. Good types, p

57、eople who are more financially responsible, have incentives to drop the bad types. Thafs also true for the bad types as well. They have an incentive to be connected to a higher number of financially responsible people. And they have an incentive to be connected to a smaller number of bad types. That

58、s going to result in, over time, a segmentation or fragmentation of the markets. The people who are credit-worthy will be more connected to other credit-worthy individuals, and people who are not credit-worthy being connected to, again, other non-credit-worthy individuals. As a result of this then,

59、firms that use social media as a tool for determining credit-worthiness are facing two challenges: First, now they are getting information from a smaller number of people because everyone has an incentive to get rid of the bad types in their own social networks. So Im ending up with a smaller number

60、 of data points for every single person.On how widespread the practice may become:This business is certainly growing outside of the United States. And I think that it has the potential to grow in the United States as well. It just has to happen that the regulators need to be convinced that this is a