产业会议第二天要点

1、Equities Research2019 Industrials ConferenceTakeaways Day 25 December 2019Credit Suisse Global Product MarketingAerospace & DefenseFord Motor Company F.N15 CS Industrials Conference Key TakesCACI International, Inc. CACI.N CS Conference HighlightsRobert SpingarnAirfreight & Ground Transport Canadian

2、 National CNI.NCS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryCanadian Pacific Railways CP.N CS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryEcho Global Logistics ECHO.OQ CS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryKansas City Southern KSU.N CS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryNorfolk Southern NSC.N CS Conference Highligh

3、ts Allison LandryOld Dominion Freight Line ODFL.OQ CS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryUnion Pacific UNP.N CS Conference Highlights Allison LandryXPO Logistics, Inc. XPO.N CS Conference HighlightsAllison LandryAutos & Auto Parts3OUTPERFORM4OUTPERFORM5OUTPERFORM6NEUTRAL7OUTPERFORM8OUTPERFORM9NEUTRA

4、L10OUTPERFORM11OUTPERFORMDan LevyLear Corporation LEA.NCS Industrial Conference Key TakesDan LevyVeoneer, Inc VNE.NCS Industrials Conference Key TakesDan LevyElectrical Equipment & Multi-Industry Chart Industries, Inc. GTLS.OQCS Conference HighlightsJohn WalshFortive FTV.NCS Conference HighlightsJoh

5、n WalshLennox International LII.N CS Conference HighlightsJohn WalshE&C and Machinery Cummins Inc. CMI.NHighlights from CS Industrials ConferenceJamie CookFluor FLR.NHighlights from CS Industrials ConferenceJamie CookKBR Inc. KBR.NHighlights from CS Industrials ConferenceJamie CookThe Manitowoc Comp

6、any, Inc MTW.NOUTPERFORM16NEUTRAL17NEUTRAL18OUTPERFORM19NEUTRAL20NEUTRAL21OUTPERFORM22OUTPERFORM23NEUTRAL24 Highlights from CS Industrials ConferenceAdient PLC ADNT.NCS Industrials Conference Key TakesDan LevyAmerican Axle & Manufacturing Holdings, Inc. AXL.NCS Industrials Conference Key Takes12NEUT

7、RAL13Jamie CookMasTec, Inc. MTZ.NHighlights from CS Industrials ConferenceJamie CookNEUTRAL25OUTPERFORMDan LevyDana, Inc. DAN.NCS Industrials Conference Key TakesDan LevyOUTPERFORM14OUTPERFORMQuanta Services PWR.N Highlights from CS Industrials Conference Jamie CookRush Enterprises, Inc. RUSHA.OQ Hi

8、ghlights from CS Industrials Conference Jamie Cook26OUTPERFORM27NEUTRALThis publication contains summaries of recent Credit Suisse research reports to bring notable Research to your attention. ALL FULL REPORTS OF THE SUMMARIES IN THIS PUBLICATION CAN BE ACCESSED THROUGH THE LINKS PROVIDED. THE FULL

9、REPORTS INCLUDE RELEVANT DISCLOSURE APPENDIXES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURES AND INFORMATION ABOUT THE STATUS OF NON-U.S ANALYSTS. For the Equity Research Disclosures click here/disclosuresTerex Corporation TEX.N Highlights from CS Industrials Conference Jamie CookServicesInforma

10、tion ServicesCS 2019 TMT Conference Fireside Takeaways ALRM + INFOKevin McVeigh28OUTPERFORM29Thursday, 5 December 2019Data Processing & Outsourced Services | Research BulletinCACI International, Inc. CACI.NCS Conference HighlightsSpeakers: John Mengucci, CEOTone: BullishGrowth: Management discussed

11、its 50% Y/Y backlog expansion and offered insight in how that should translate to growth. Management noted that many of the contracts that have driven thisexpansion are in the mission technology space, and are long-term contracts (with many having a duration of 5-7 years). Management further remarke

12、d that the ramp up on this type of work is typically 18 months, vs 3 months on a more typical expertise-type contract. Given the long-term nature of these contracts as well as the 18 month ramp up period, the implication from management was that organic growth should accelerate throughout the year a

13、nd into next year.Margins: Management noted that much of CACIs future growth would be in the mission technology space, which carries higher margins than the core business. Management also notedthat its changeover to longer-term contracts would limit the number of annual recompetes that it faces. Wit

14、h a lower recompete rate, CACI should see a commensurate drop in its bid and proposal costs, with a favorable impact to margins if not reinvested in other areas, such as internal research and development.Labor: Management offered a fair amount of optimism in its ability to work through a tight labor

15、 market, noting that its ability to hire employees in different geographies helped to mitigate some ofthe tightness in the DC metro area in particular.Budget risk: Regarding the budget risk associated with the 2020 election, management reiterated its confidence in the ability of the companys overall

16、 strategy to help drive resiliency inless favorable budget environments. Specifically, CACIs increased focus on the customer missionas opposed to ancillary or non-core servicesshould help limit the downside to the budget line-items that CACI is most exposed to. CACI noted that in the last government

17、 shutdown, the impact to the business was negligible, which we believe helps support the companys claim that is more mission focused than in the past.04 December 2019OUTPERFORMRatingOUTPERFORMPrice (03-Dec-19, US$)235.78Target price (US$)268.0052-week price range241.01 -(US$)139.42Market cap(US$ m)5

18、,904Enterprise value (US$ m)7,146Target price is for 12 months.Research AnalystsRobert Spingarn / 212 538 1895 HYPERLINK mailto:robert.spingarn robert.spingarnScott Deuschle / 212 325 6116 HYPERLINK mailto:scott.deuschle scott.deuschleFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 17:02:18 UTC Date of D

19、issemination: 04-Dec-2019 17:03:53 UTCRailroads | Research BulletinCanadian National CNI.NCS Conference Highlights04 December 2019OUTPERFORMRatingOUTPERFORM Price (03-Dec-19, US$)88.22Target price (US$)98.0052-week price range (C$)126.74 - 94.26Market cap(US$ m)63,580Enterprise value (C$ m)73,436Spe

20、aker: JJ Ruest, CEOTone: PositiveDetails:CN announced a coal shipping deal with Teck this morning. The deal is expected to generate revenue in the range of $160m-$250m annually (vs. less than $25m in business from Teckpreviously). CN has also committed to investing $125m to improve rail infrastructu

21、re and support increased shipment volumes to Neptune.The company does not expect the recent 8 day strike to result in a permanent loss of business. However, CN did lose some business temporarily, as a portion of freight moved through othermeans and some customers curtailed production.While CN is not

22、 qualifying expected headcount reductions in 2020, the company noted that layoffs will be significant in order to align resources with a weaker demand environment.Pricing power is expected to be slightly weaker, but CN still expects pricing above inflation.Wage inflation is expected to be broadly in

23、 line with the industry (roughly +2.5-3% y/y).The company is focused on growing its business in the East, and ports appear to be a key element to its success.Specifically, the Port of Halifax will help support volume expansion, and the company expects this to gain traction by next summer.Similarly,

24、CNs joint venture to build a container port in Quebec City may help support Eastern rail volumes over the long term. The company noted it may take until 2024 to develop.Normalized capex is expected to be in the 19-20% of revenue range.In terms of technology, the company appeared very upbeat on the p

25、otential for automated train and track inspection. We also note that technology is still only a small portion of the capex spendgiven the high cost of double tracks, locomotives, etc. Additionally, CN is more optimistic on PTC this year than it was last year.Target price is for 12 months.Research An

26、alystsAllison M. Landry / 212 325 3716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry allison.landrySamantha Yellen / 212 325 7451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen samantha.yellenBrian Wright / 212 538 1855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright brian.wrightFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 16:28:34 UTC Date of Di

27、ssemination: 04-Dec-2019 16:29:44 UTCCanadian Pacific Railways CP.NCS Conference HighlightsOUTPERFORMRatingOUTPERFORM Price (03-Dec-19, US$)232.71Target price (US$)263.0052-week price range (C$) 327.27 - 223.80 Market cap(US$ m)31,927Enterprise value (C$ m)38,378Speaker: Keith Creel, President & CEO

28、Tone: PositiveDetails:Volumes are expected to be flat to slightly negative in Q4. The company noted that volume deceleration likely bottomed in November, and expects to continue to see second derivativeimprovement in volume growth through December.The company reaffirmed confidence in MSD RTM growth

29、over the long term.CP noted some weakening in the pricing environment, but still expects pricing to be in the 3%-4% range in 2019, as well as through 2020.Increased train length should help support strong incremental margins moving forward and the company noted that incremental margins may come in a

30、bove 75% (ex-D&A) in 2020.The company noted several areas of strength for volume growth moving forward, including grain, potash, and CBR (which the company noted will see its strongest quarter in company history inQ4).The company commented that double-digit EPS growth is well within the range of pos

31、sibility in 2020 (though we should get more detail in January).The company expects to finish the year with headcount down 2%, and expects another couple percentage points of movement in 2020.The company noted that the 1% earnings hit from the lost Teck coal business does not take into account capaci

32、ty redeployment, and noted that it can likely redeploy this capacity at bettermargins.CP noted the strategic importance of the recent CMQ acquisition given the improved access to east coast ports, highlighting access to the Port of St. John, which it noted has the potential tocompete with Halifax.Th

33、e company noted that it may be interested in several other potential short-line acquisitions following the completion of Brookfields GWR acquisition, though these are not as compelling asthe CMQ acquisition.The company also noted that the CMQ rail will require an immediate capital outlay to bring up

34、 to CP standards, though this is not expected to impact CPs overall capex expectations.The buyback is likely to resume by the end of December (following the board meeting in 2 weeks).Target price is for 12 months.Research AnalystsAllison M. Landry / 212 325 3716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry allis

35、on.landrySamantha Yellen / 212 325 7451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen samantha.yellenBrian Wright / 212 538 1855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright brian.wrightFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 23:16:35 UTC Date of Dissemination: 04-Dec-2019 23:17:32 UTCEcho Global Logistics ECHO.OQCS Confere

36、nce HighlightsNEUTRAL52-week price range (US$) 25.81 - 19.09 Market cap(US$ m)524Enterprise value (US$ m)646NEUTRAL19.2122.00RatingPrice (03-Dec-19, US$) Target price (US$)Speaker: Kyle Sauers, CFOTone: NeutralDetails:The company described the TL environment has been generally consistent with what i

37、t was seeing in Q3 (loose capacity, weak demand, high tender acceptance, etc.). However, y/y volume declinesare expected to start seeing second derivative improvement in 2Q20.The company did note some capacity starting to come out of the market, especially related to smaller carriers, who have been

38、unable to offset lower rates with increased miles due to ELDimplementation, and have been further pressured by rising insurance costs.ECHO also noted that it expects the adoption of the national Drug and Alcohol Database will further pressure capacity in 2020, and will likely have more of an impact

39、on capacity coming out ofthe market than the final deadline for ELD implementation.The company indicated that NRMs will likely continue to come under pressure in a steady spot rate environment. However, if spot rates were to begin rising, additional spot volume would help tooffset pressure to NRM on

40、 the contract side of the TL brokerage business.The company noted that the new customer pipeline in managed transportation remains strong, and it expects new business in 2019 to be consistent with the prior couple of years ($100m).The company commented that UBER is the only tech entrant the company

41、is currently seeing using abnormally aggressive pricing to gain share, though it noted that it expects this pricing strategy willlikely change.As it relates to M&A, ECHO indicated that its pipeline looks better than it did a year ago, as valuations have become more reasonable (the company indicated

42、it would be willing to pay in therange of 5x-9x for a small TL broker).To this end, the company noted that it would be more likely to make an acquisition to expand its capabilities in order to improve its service offering and gain a higher share of customers wallets.Target price is for 12 months.Res

43、earch AnalystsAllison M. Landry / 212 325 3716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry allison.landrySamantha Yellen / 212 325 7451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen samantha.yellenBrian Wright / 212 538 1855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright brian.wrightFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 20:04:55 UTC Da

44、te of Dissemination: 04-Dec-2019 20:06:03 UTCKansas City Southern KSU.NCS Conference HighlightsOUTPERFORMRatingOUTPERFORM Price (03-Dec-19, US$)149.49Target price (US$)171.0052-week price range (US$) 154.66 - 90.84 Market cap(US$ m)14,817Enterprise value (US$ m)17,880Speaker: Jeff Songer, COO; Sameh

45、 Fahmy, EVP PSRTone: PositiveDetails:4Q Revenue Outlook:50% Favorable including Chemicals, Petroleum, Industrial, and Consumer20% Neutral including Agriculture, Minerals and Automotive20% Negative Including Intermodal and EnergyKSU echoed CNs comments from earlier in the day that peak season was mor

46、e of a “bump” than a peak.The company also noted that auto volumes are experiencing a solid recovery following the GM strike.PSR UpdateCar miles per day are 127.7 QTD which the company noted may have the potential to ultimately reach 200mpd.Fuel efficiency reached 1.27 gallons/gtm QTD which the comp

47、any noted has significant room for improvement though it likely wont reach 1.0 or lower as we have seen at other rails.Notably, velocity was up 50% y/y in November.Areas of focus for the second phase of PSR in 2020 include reduced crew starts and dead- heading, continued freight car/locomotive right

48、 sizing, car lease terminations, car repair locationrationalization, improved fuel efficiency, and a full review of engineering (which was not addressed under PSR Phase I).KSU highlighted reduced crew starts and freight car reduction as the two areas with the greatest opportunities. The company remi

49、nded us that crew sizes in Mexico are still 3-4, which it hopes tobring more in line with the US standard of 2.The company highlighted several initiatives currently underway to improve efficiency and increase capacity at the border, these include the common viewer program to reduce customs wait time

50、sand increased use of international crews.These initiatives are expected to help increase border capacity by 40%-60%.The company is on track for PTC interoperability by the end of 2020.Target price is for 12 months.Research AnalystsAllison M. Landry / 212 325 3716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry all

51、ison.landrySamantha Yellen / 212 325 7451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen samantha.yellenBrian Wright / 212 538 1855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright brian.wrightFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 18:01:43 UTC Date of Dissemination: 04-Dec-2019 18:02:57 UTCNorfolk Southern NSC.NCS Conference H

52、ighlightsOUTPERFORMSpeaker: Jim Squires, Chairman, President & CEORatingPrice (03-Dec-19, US$)OUTPERFORM186.21Tone: NeutralTarget price (US$)210.0052-week price range206.70 -Details:(US$)139.79Top21 Updates:The company is currently in Phase 2 of the Top21 plan. This includes consolidating bulk and m

53、erchandise trains, further ramping up distributed power, and syncing local operating plans withthe network plan.Phase 3 of the Top21 plan is expected to commence in January, which focuses primarily on intermodal shipments and is expected to remodel all traffic.Some initiatives underway include DC to

54、 AC locomotive conversion plan, mechanical alignment, and fuel management. The AC locomotives will allow NS to run heavier trains and operate asmaller, more efficient locomotive fleet. It also supports better fuel efficiency.While volumes have been relatively weak, NS has been able to reduce crew st

55、arts at twice the pace of volume declines.If volumes come back, NS would have to flex up TE&Y employees, but the company expects the majority of headcount reductions to stick.NS noted that better service and being selective on the revenue composition will help support the yielding up strategy despit

56、e a weaker freight backdrop.NS guided to capex as a % of revenue in the range of 16-18%. We also point out that the DC to AC conversion program is a substantial piece of the capital budget at 20%.Market cap(US$ m) Enterprise value (US$ m)48,55460,297Target price is for 12 months.Research AnalystsAll

57、ison M. Landry / 212 325 3716 HYPERLINK mailto:allison.landry allison.landrySamantha Yellen / 212 325 7451 HYPERLINK mailto:samantha.yellen samantha.yellenBrian Wright / 212 538 1855 HYPERLINK mailto:brian.wright brian.wrightFull ReportDate of Production: 04-Dec-2019 18:50:53 UTC Date of Disseminati

58、on: 04-Dec-2019 18:53:50 UTCOld Dominion Freight Line ODFL.OQCS Conference HighlightsNEUTRALSpeaker: Adam Satterfield, CFORatingPrice (04-Dec-19, US$)NEUTRAL181.78Tone: NeutralTarget price (US$)180.0052-week price range195.64 -Details:(US$)115.58Tonnage/day decelerated to -5% y/y in November from -4

59、% in October, but the company noted that it is getting closer to normal seasonality. Looking ahead, the company indicated it would needmore macro support in order to get back to tonnage growth.The company is focused on maintaining yields because it is much harder to get pricing back than volumes.ODF

60、L indicated that it has continued to see lost business come back to the network owing to better service and capacity that its competitors have not built into the network.November WPS was stronger than ODFL expected, which may have been related to the timing of the holiday.ODFL expects Q4 headcount t