SIA数据：放缓进入20

1、EQUITY RESEARCHINDUSTRY UPDATEFebruary 7, 2019SemiconductorsSemiconductor Capital EquipmentTechnology Hardware: Storage & PeripheralsMatthew D. Ramsay415 646 7373 HYPERLINK mailto:matt.ramsay matt.ramsayKrish Sankar415 646 7372 HYPERLINK mailto:krish.sankar krish.sankarKarl Ackerman, CFA415 646 7219

2、 HYPERLINK mailto:karl.ackerman karl.ackermanJoshua Buchalter, CFA646 562 1303 HYPERLINK mailto:joshua.buchalter joshua.buchalterEthan Potasnick646 562 1425 HYPERLINK mailto:ethan.potasnick ethan.potasnickSamuel Reiff415 646 7223 HYPERLINK mailto:samuel.reiff samuel.reiffSteven Chin415 646 7374 HYPE

3、RLINK mailto:steven.chin steven.chinRobert Mertens, CFA646 562 1338 HYPERLINK mailto:robert.mertens robert.mertensDECEMBER SIA DATA: SLOWDOWN PROGRESSES INTO 2019THE COWEN INSIGHTSemiconductor sales continued correction in December, down 9% M/M following an above seasonal November, against typical s

4、easonality of 5% M/M growth, and was down 8% Y/ Y as declines accelerated in late December. While the NT macro remains uncertain, several analog/MCU companies have reported order rates picked up the last several weeks and 2019 cloud CapEx guidance has been surprisingly strong.Global December Semis R

5、evenue Continues DeclineSemiconductor revenue continued to decelerate in December down 9% M/M after an above seasonal November, against seasonality of 5% M/M growth. Overall revenue declined 8% Y/ Y (flat ex-Memory) following 10 straight quarters of Y/Y growth. M/M sales declines for both DRAM and N

6、AND were well below seasonal averages, while non-memory IC growthof 2.5% was below seasonal averages of 7.3%. We view current non-memory activity as consistent with industry commentary in C4Q earnings season demonstrating a softening macroeconomic backdrop in the face of trade related uncertainty. W

7、hile our companies under coverage continue to report earnings along with other semiconductor suppliers, the next couple months could prove critical as to whether a US/China trade deal is struck and optimism for a 2H19 recovery in semiconductor demand is warranted. Near-termdynamics include a slower

8、growth for enterprise/hyperscale datacenter spending (thought better than feared as per hyperscale 2019 guidance), Intel 14nm shortages restricting PC/server supply in certain segments, iPhone weakness, continued softness of memory ASPs, and notable slowdown in Chinese industrial/auto end markets. W

9、ithin this uncertain backdrop and much correlation within the SOXX index, we continue to recommend long- term investors evaluate semiconductor stocks by long-term exposure to AI-driven growth verticals, including Datacenter, IoT/Industrial, Auto, and Gaming.For December in more detail, DRAM sales de

10、clined 21% Y/Y, while NAND decreased 28%. Analog and Discretes were the strongest non-memory verticals, up 3% and 8% Y/Y, respectively, while MPUs were down 4.1% Y/Y and experienced their first annual decline since February. We are already witnessing demand elasticity beginning to blossom inconsumer

11、 NAND environments, and we expect server DRAM demand will benefit the most as pricing normalizes the next couple quarters. In this note we detail the monthly trends by semiconductor components as well as implications for: AMD, Intel, Silicon Labs, Monolithic Power, NVIDIA, NXP, Marvell, Micron, West

12、ern Digital, Cypress, Adesto, and Silicon Motion. Our teams top picks in the group remain:Ramsay (Semis): AMD, MPWR, NVDAAckerman (Memory, Connectivity): MRVL & CYSankar (SemiCap Equipment): KLACMPU Revenues Decelerate Propped up By ASPs: On a M/M basis MPU revenue increased 1%, well below five-year

13、 seasonal averages of +13%, and was down 4% Y/Y also well below its five-year seasonal average of +5%. These results follow Intels 4Q18 below consensus results/outlook that illuminated cloud CapEx growth is slowing, PC growth rates and CPU pricing are normalizing, and macro/trade environment is unce

14、rtain at best. Intels results further showed that slower growth and demand in China are pervasive and are a prevalent theme throughout the Semi-sector and may not be able to rely on ASPs propping up results in the near-term. Intel management explained that in addition to slowing demand from China hy

15、perscale customers, overall cloud and OEM customers likely overbought during 2018 and are now installing more than they are buying. Further, while PC results were steady in the quarter the company expects flat PC units in FY19 with expected competition and pricing pressure a possibility.Please see p

16、ages 20 to 24 of this report for important disclosures.COWEN.COMFor AMD and NVIDIA, following AMDs call and NVIDIAs pre-announcement with softer near-term disappointing guidance for both companies that saw a much more material impact from near-term GPU channel sell-in challenges, we remain confident

17、 in our long- term thesis for both companies with a broad portfolio of growth engines for NVIDIA and new 7nm silicon set to ramp for AMD into 2019. That said, 1H19 contains growth headwinds for both.Analog and MCU Growth Hanging in There We Highlight MPWR, SLAB, and NXPI: After outperforming the gro

18、up through 1H18, Y/Y Analog growth has decelerated each of the past four months, yet has bounced back slightly reaching 3% in December, well below the high teens rates seen entering the year. MCU Y/Y growth after turning sharply negative the past two months declining 12% in November and 6% in Octobe

19、r saw flat resultsin December. This follows bellwether Texas Instruments (not-covered) commentary, reporting weaker top-line results and sequentially soft 1Q19 guide (Microchip, NXP, Silicon Labs and others followed), with both business segments Analog and MCU/processor sales underperforming. The co

20、mpany attributed weakness to increased caution due to macroeconomic and trade tensions resulting in soft demand particularly in Asia/China.Despite the softer near-term outlook for Analog and MCUs, we remain optimistic regarding secular growth drivers for overall analog semiconductor content that enc

21、ompass industrial, factory automation, IoT, and Automotive applications and point to SLAB, MPWR, and NXPI as well-positioned long-term.Memorys Near-Term Challenges Well Known: With earnings commentary behind us, the negative setup for MarQ and 1H19 is now better contemplated in estimates/fundamental

22、s. These near-term headwinds include capped demand from PCs on component bottlenecks, soft smartphone demand, and decelerating near-term purchasing by enterprise data center customers (both hyperscale and public cloud). This has led to higher levels of inventory across most applications, which shoul

23、d extend the pricing declines seen across enterprise SSDs, server DRAM, and mobile memory/storage. While estimates across the group have largely been reset, we still expect near-term results to be choppy until investors have greater conviction CQ2:19 is the trough. Read more on our memory coverage H

24、YPERLINK /docs/pdf/65cbcfdf-2dbe-454c-ab01-e8f093339383.pdf here.For SemiCap, Several Large Cap Equipment Vendors Expect 2H19 Revenue To Improve: Clearly the visibility is limited and if memory pricing continues to erode, we believe any near-term commentary suggesting HYPERLINK outlook-data-detector

25、:/2/ a 2H19 rebound could be limited if memory players take action by further trimming WFE. One potential factor that remains difficult to handicap is political risks with respect to export controls. The late Oct 18 restrictions on exports of US technology to China DRAM manufacturer Jinhua was cited

26、 as affecting revenues duringAMATs recent Oct 18 quarter results. Longer term we remain confident that rising capital intensity on next-generation nodes should help drive spending levels on the back of a weak pricing environment. We continue to view 2019 in a positive light, although indications of

27、HYPERLINK outlook-data-detector:/3/ 2H19 growth are likely needed for a rebound in the sector. At current levels the focus is on any indication toward the timing of a rebound in demand seem more so, in our view, than in the absolute CY19 WFE levels. We reiterate KLAC as our top 2019 idea due to grea

28、ter foundry exposure and earnings accretion from the ORBK deal (still expected to close in C1H19).Figure 1 - December 2018 RevenueDecember 2018December 2018M/MY/YQTDYTDDRAM-33.1%-20.1%6.1%34.9%NAND-23.1%-28.0%-13.7%15.2%Analog7.3%2.6%2.9%10.2%MPU1.2%-4.1%4.1%6.7%MCU12.0%-0.2%-6.0%4.3%DSP6.9%-11.3%-1

29、0.7%-0.4%Other Logic-1.0%-1.3%2.2%6.9%Discretes6.4%7.8%7.0%11.3%Opto & Sensors0.9%-0.8%2.7%8.4%Total IC Ex-Memory2.5%-0.3%2.5%7.8%Total Semi-8.9%-7.7%1.2%13.7%Source: Cowen and Company, Semiconductor Industry AssociationFigure 2 - Quarterly Y/Y Growth Rates by Component1Q162Q163Q164Q161Q172Q173Q174Q

30、171Q182Q183Q184Q18DRAM-26.7%-18.6%-5.4%25.4%63.2%74.1%79.3%68.6%58.3%50.0%36.6%6.1%NAND-4.4%-4.4%14.0%39.7%41.4%57.1%50.2%42.7%37.9%29.0%17.5%-13.7%Analog-1.9%1.0%8.6%15.6%14.0%12.0%8.9%9.3%15.6%14.7%8.6%2.9%MPU-0.4%1.2%-0.5%-1.9%1.8%4.8%-0.2%5.0%0.3%9.3%13.1%4.1%MCU-7.9%-9.6%-5.1%-0.6%7.1%13.7%11.5

31、%16.3%13.0%9.1%0.1%-6.0%DSP11.8%11.2%15.1%11.8%8.2%16.7%14.4%18.9%12.5%3.0%-4.9%-10.7%Other Logic-3.5%-6.7%5.7%8.1%9.0%13.7%11.9%11.9%9.1%11.1%6.2%2.2%Discretes-6.7%-0.8%11.7%14.8%9.9%12.4%10.5%13.1%15.2%12.8%10.7%7.0%Opto & Sensors7.1%-5.3%0.4%5.4%7.9%13.2%10.0%11.6%5.9%12.2%12.9%2.7%Total IC Ex-Me

32、mory-1.4%-3.4%4.1%7.1%8.5%11.8%8.9%10.7%9.1%11.7%8.7%2.5%Total Semi-5.6%-5.7%3.6%12.3%17.9%23.7%22.2%22.5%20.3%20.5%15.1%1.2%Source: Cowen and Company, Semiconductor Industry AssociationThemes to highlight:MPU Revenues Decelerate Propped up By ASPs: On a M/M basis MPU revenue increased 1%, below fiv

33、e-year seasonal averages of +13%, and was down 4% Y/Y also well below its five-year seasonal average of +5%. These results follow Intels 4Q18 earnings results provided below consensus results/outlook that illuminated cloud slower CapEx growth, PC growth rates, and normalizing CPU pricing in an uncer

34、tain macro/trade environment. Intels results further showed that softness in China is pervasive and impacting the broader Semi-sector and it will take more than strong ASP trends to hold up growth rates broadly. Intel management explained that in addition to slowing demand from China, hyperscale/ent

35、erprise OEM customers likely overbought servers during 2018 and are now installing more than they are buying. Further, while PC results were steady in the quarter the company expects flat PC units in FY19 with expected competition and pricing pressure likely from competitor AMD.Additionally, 10nm ti

36、ming also appears unchanged with PC products on shelf for the 2019 holidays. While the company believes 10nm server silicon will more quickly follow PCs than on past nodes, this commentary echoes our view that 10nm silicon will not ramp materially until 2020 with server introductions also that year,

37、 potentially shifting pricing power away from Intel as AMD ramps its refreshed lineup. As we noted in our recent earnings note HYPERLINK /sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=e9419532-15af-4f87-9e6a-4287f3eb66b8&mime=pdf&co=Cowen&id=joshua.buchalter%40&source=libraryView (here), we believe 2019 will prov

38、e a more challenging year for Intel given we see a more difficult spending environment globally, strengthening and more diverse competition on more competitive manufacturing nodes and tougher Y/Y compares, thought recent cloud CapEx commentary is more positive than feared versus Intels aggressive 2H

39、 outlook.As for AMD, following a 4Q18 call that discussed essentially inline results versus the originally soft outlook - down 24% Y/Y on GPU headwinds management guided to a reaccelerating 2H19 creating high-single-digit growth for FY19 overall. The guide from AMD demonstrates the companys unbridle

40、d confidence in 7nm product share gains as our conversations within our industry network have revealed hyperscale customers and PC OEMs are deeply engaged as they await a viable x86 second source. With AMDs much improved 7nm portfolio, we believe that opportunity has arrived. This falls in line with

41、 our current investment thesis that centers around AMD being positioned for sustainable x86 PC and server CPU share gains as the company approaches a time period where it will have a manufacturing advantage against Intel. We expect 2019 to be an eventful year where AMD and Intel compete more evenly

42、across a much larger portion of the PC and server CPU markets than in recent memory. With 7nm Ryzen-3 PC and Rome server CPUs expected to launch in mid-2019, Intel will no-longer be able to rely on its n-node silicon advantage, and will instead lean on its incumbency and breadth of silicon as its 10

43、nm chips are not expected out until late 2019 and 2020 in server.Please see HYPERLINK /docs/pdf/4f419c46-11d7-4a1b-983b-c6f39aed8299.pdf here for our recent 4Q earnings recap and “best-ideas” note HYPERLINK /sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=a9bab567-12b4-4f34-ae8a-676ccf20d7c1&mime=pdf&co=Cowen&id=jo

44、shua.buchalter%40&source=libraryView here.Regarding NVIDIA, following a negative pre-announcement and already lowered JanQ guide, the company continues to be plagued by ongoing excess channel inventory of Pascal mid-range GPUs that accumulated after sharp drop-off in excess crypto demand and softer

45、datacenter sales consistent with Intels softer DCG guidance for MarQ. With that being said, while investors are certainly (and rightly) recalibrating the TAM size, we do not see any changes to the long-term potential of NVIDIAs datacenter franchise and point to a recent note; HYPERLINK /docs/pdf/688

46、20ec7-2724-405a-81f3-0faa8cea6e4f.pdf “CEO Meeting HYPERLINK /docs/pdf/68820ec7-2724-405a-81f3-0faa8cea6e4f.pdf Bullish LT, But Might Take A Bit To Prove NT Bumps Are All Crypto” for more details on our recent meeting with CEO Jensen Huang and our long-term thesis.Analog and MCU Growth Hanging In Th

47、ere; We Highlight MPWR, SLAB, and NXPIAfter outperforming the group through 1H18, Y/Y Analog growth has decelerated each of the past four months, yet has bounced back slightly reaching 3% in December, well below the 18% seen entering the year. MCU Y/Y growth saw flat results in December following sh

48、arply negative results the past two months. This follows bellwether Texas Instruments (not-covered) commentary, reporting weaker top-line results and sequentially soft 1Q19 guide (down 6% Q/Q and 8% Y/Y at the midpoint), with both business segments Analog and MCU/processor sales underperforming. Oth

49、er companies including Microchip (not-covered), Silicon Labs, and NXP have reported similar trends, particularly in China. Despite the softer near-term outlook for Analog and MCUs, we remain optimistic regarding secular growth drivers for overall analog semiconductor content that encompass industria

50、l, factory automation, IoT, and Automotive applications and point to SLAB, MPWR, and NXPI as well positiond long term. Further, several analog/MCU management teams have discussed order patterns improving in recent weeks.In a sector that where we expect growth to become increasingly difficult to find

51、, we believe Monolithic Power Systems presents a rare, consistent 20% organic growth story. We believe the company will continue to take share in the power management industry through its programmable analog component design model despite industry conservatism. As a reminder for 3Q18, MPS showcased

52、another quarter of 20%+ organic growth with broad-based segment results across auto, storage/compute, industrial and comms as share gains and content platform wins display healthy revenue diversification and earnings potential. Our bullish thesis centers around the companys programmable design metho

53、dology and proprietary leading analog process node, which will be applicable across large analog markets further expanded by a long-term module strategy. Monolithic Power reports 4Q18 results on Tuesday February 12th where we expect more of the same from MPS (strong results that calm near-term fears

54、) as the company is lined up to take share in the power management industry through its programmable analog component design model. Well be looking for managements confidence in its 20% 2019 growth target, though we would not mind it being lowered slightly. For more details on our outlook please our

55、 preview note HYPERLINK /sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=865f05c6-66a0-4a06-a643-7d969ceef8f1&mime=pdf&co=Cowen&id=ethan.potasnick%40&source=libraryView here and post-NDR recap: HYPERLINK /sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=6b3f9138-c8b4-4937-aa1a-ad1188428dce&mime=pdf&co=Cowen&id=joshua.buchalter%40&s

56、ource=libraryView “A Week HYPERLINK /sellside/EmailDocViewer?encrypt=6b3f9138-c8b4-4937-aa1a-ad1188428dce&mime=pdf&co=Cowen&id=joshua.buchalter%40&source=libraryView In Europe with MPS Management; Remains Top SMID-Cap Pick,”.Silicon Labs offers the most complete portfolio of silicon capabilities add

57、ressing the growing trend of “connected things” despite soft 4Q results/1Q guide as well- known macro weakness hits the company. We continue to view the companys portfolio of MCUs, wireless connectivity, and sensors as ideally suited to broadly address this innately fragmented market as it allows th

58、e company to offer wide ranging multiprotocol modules. However, near-term we believe slowing customer demand and reduced distribution inventory levels will weigh on the company, although we remain optimistic overall about the companys product pipeline and pace of design wins. Management has noted or

59、der levels have already improved over the past couple of weeks. While the overall semiconductor universe faces global economic uncertainty, we remain bullish on the companys Infrastructure and Timing divisions as new wins and diversified growth reaccelerate the companys 20% growth target ambitions i

60、n 2019. We direct investors to our recently published summary of Silicon Labs fourth quarter results HYPERLINK /docs/pdf/d2a42ca0-50fb-497f-8184-4fbd41e11ae2.pdf here for a more complete picture of the company at present.Lastly, despite the weak MCU backdrop and China automotive backdrop, we continu