1月美国生命科学与诊断工具产业追 踪

1、COREU.S. Life Science Tools & DiagnosticsBarclays Tools Industrial Tracker INDUSTRY UPDATEEquity Research1 February 2019January 2019: US a Bright Spot Amidst Broader PMI ModerationGeographic PMIs in January showed continued moderation, with the US as a lone bright spot. After weakening meaningfully

2、in December, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI rebounded to 56.6 (up 2.3 m/m). China moderated further into contractionary territory (48.3, down 1.4 m/m) though we continue to believe national initiatives favor investment in life science research and Tools technologies. Similarly, European manufacturin

3、g (50.5, down 0.9 m/m), UK (52.8, down 1.4 m/m), and Japan (50.3, down -2.3 m/m) each posted declines in PMI, though they remain in expansionary territory. We believe future PMI trends will be important to watch for a read into trends further into 2019, serving as a 1-2 quarter leading indicator. Th

4、e industrial end market has been an important alpha driver for growth for our Life Science Tools coverage amidst the global recovery, making up anywhere from 10-25% of revenues for the diversified companies. We continue to favor Agilent and Thermo Fisher in our Life Science Tools coverage with Overw

5、eight ratings. As a reminder, revenue generation for the Life Science Tools companies is highly correlated with end market growth in the companies individual geographies. The latest readings suggest:US Composite PMI from ISM of 56.6 for January 2019, up 2.3 m/mEurope Manufacturing PMI from Markit of

6、 50.5 for January 2019, down -0.9 m/mUK Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 52.8 for January 2019, down -1.4 m/mGermany Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.7 for January 2019, down -1.8 m/mJapan Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 50.3 for January 2019, down -2.3 m/mChina Manufacturing PMI from Markit of

7、48.3 for January 2019, down -1.4 m/mIn this report, we also track capital spending levels at chemical and energy companies, oil prices, and rig counts to gauge the health of the industrial end market. After a number of years of pressure, we are starting to see an improvement in industrial performanc

8、e though the cyclicality of the end market makes it important to monitor trends. Notably, it appears that CapEx spending across the energy end market improved in 2017. Based on consensus estimates, CapEx from E&P companies is expected to increase 13% in 2018, and another 2% in 2019. E&P spending can

9、 be viewed as a leading indication for downstream spending. While international rig counts continue to show year-over-year improvements, recent weakness in the price of oil will be something to monitor.U.S. Life Science Tools & DiagnosticsNEUTRALUnchangedU.S. Life Science Tools & Diagnostics Jack Me

10、ehan, CFA+1 212 526 3909 HYPERLINK mailto:jack.meehan jack.meehan BCI, USMitchell Petersen+1 212 526 3367 HYPERLINK mailto:mitchell.petersen mitchell.petersen BCI, USAndrew Wald+1 212 526 9436 HYPERLINK mailto:andrew.wald andrew.wald BCI, USBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and

11、 seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decisi

12、on.PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 18.Barclays Tools Industrial Tracker Geographic PMIs January 2019 UpdateGeographic PMIs in January showed continued moderation, with the US as a lone bright spot. After weakening meaningfully in December, the U.S. ISM

13、 manufacturing PMI rebounded to 56.6 (up 2.3 m/m). China moderated further into contractionary territory (48.3, down 1.4 m/m) though we continue to believe national initiatives favor investment in life science research and Tools technologies. Similarly, European manufacturing (50.5, down 0.9 m/m), U

14、K (52.8, down 1.4 m/m), and Japan (50.3, down -2.3 m/m) each posted declines in PMI, though they remain in expansionary territory. We believe future PMI trends will be important to watch for a read into trends further into 2019, serving as a 1- 2 quarter leading indicator. The industrial end market

15、has been an important alpha driver for growth for our Life Science Tools coverage amidst the global recovery, making up anywhere from 10-25% of revenues for the diversified companies. We continue to favor Agilent and Thermo Fisher in our Life Science Tools coverage with Overweight ratings. As a remi

16、nder, revenue generation for the Life Science Tools companies is highly correlated with end market growth in the companies individual geographies. The latest readings suggest:US Composite PMI from ISM of 56.6 for January 2019, up 2.3 m/mEurope Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 50.5 for January 2019,

17、down -0.9 m/mUK Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 52.8 for January 2019, down -1.4 m/mGermany Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 49.7 for January 2019, down -1.8 m/mJapan Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 50.3 for January 2019, down -2.3 m/mChina Manufacturing PMI from Markit of 48.3 for January 2019, d

18、own -1.4 m/mTo help investors gauge end market activity, we have developed the Barclays PMI Trackers. The trackers represent a weighted-average of growth in Agilent, Mettler Toledo, PerkinElmer, Thermo Fisher, and Waters underlying geographies using PMI data from ISM in the United States and Markit

19、internationally. On a one-quarter lag, the Barclays Agilent, Mettler Toledo, PerkinElmer, Thermo Fisher, and Waters PMI Trackers have a 66%, 61%, 61%, 50%, and 36% correlation with organic growth in the following quarter, respectively.The Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker for FY1Q19 registers at 53.1 (do

20、wn 1.1 q/q).The Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker for 4Q18 registers at 53.5 (down 1.5 q/q).The Barclays PerkinElmer PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 52.4 (down 1.1 q/q).The Barclays Thermo Fisher PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 53.3 (down 0.9 q/q).The Barclays Waters PMI Tracker for 1Q19 regis

21、ters at 52.6 (down 0.9 q/q).Please reach out to us if you would like a copy of the Barclays PMI Trackers.FIGURE 1Agilent Revenue by GeographyOther Asia Pacific 16%Japan 7%Americas 48%FIGURE 2Mettler Toledo Revenue by GeographyAsia and Other 30%North and South America 39%China and Hong Kong 29%Europe

22、 31%Source: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchSource: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3PerkinElmer Revenue by GeographyFIGURE 4Thermo Fisher Revenue by GeographyOther Asia- OtherOther 25%France 4%Italy 3%Japan 3%India Germany4%4%United Kingdom 3%China 17%United States 37%Pacific 8%China

23、 11%Europe 26%3%Other North America 3%United States 49%Source: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchSource: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchFIGURE 5Waters Revenue by GeographyOther6%UnitedStates 29%Asia 37%Europe 28%Source: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchAgilent PMI Tracker TakeawaysThrough

24、January, the Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker for FY1Q19 registers at 53.1 (down1.1 q/q). Approximately 65% of Agilents revenues are generated outside of the United States, with exposure to Asia (37%) and Europe (28%) for the company. The Barclays Agilent PMI End Market Tracker has a 66% one-quarter lea

25、ding correlation with the companys organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between Agilents geographic exposure and growth over the past 39 quarters (as far back as international data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and expansiona

26、ry tracker performance to start the year gives us good conviction in Agilents ability to hit its FY2019 guidance of 5.0-5.5% organic growth.FIGURE 6Barclays Agilent PMI Tracker (October FYE)% Growth 30%PMI 60.020%50.010%40.00%30.0-10%20.0-20%10.0-30%SS Revenue GrowthBarclays Agilent PMI Tracker0.0So

27、urce: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchAs a reminder, Agilent reported FY4Q18 earnings on November 19, 2018. Geographically, Agilent posted another strong quarter in China with growth of 16%, driven by broad-based demand. Specifically, the company highlighted growth in pharma & biotech, academic

28、& government, as well as chemical & energy. Additionally, the CrossLab segment posted high-teens growth in China during the quarter. CEO McMullen described the overall market conditions as healthy and views China as a multi-year opportunity. Agilent was again impacted by the reorganization of the Ch

29、inese food ministry, though the environmental reorganization has concluded. McMullen explained that the company is seeing an outsized impact from the Chinese reorganization because it is the leader in Chinese food testing. Importantly, the company has not seen any difference in customer behavior as

30、a result of tariffs. The company has initiatives in place to offset the duty impact. In 2019, Agilent is expecting a quarterly headwind of $4mm of incremental cost. For 2019, Agilent is guiding to high single-digit growth in China.Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker TakeawaysThrough January, the Barclays Met

31、tler Toledo PMI Tracker for 4Q18 registers at 53.5 (down 1.5 q/q). Approximately 62% of the companys revenues are generated outside of the United States, with significant exposure in Europe (28%) and China (19%). The Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI End Market Tracker has a 61% one-quarter leading correl

32、ation with the companys organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between Mettler Toledos geographic exposure and growth over the past 38 quarters (as far back as international data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and we note that t

33、he expansionary PMI results improve our visibility into solid growth for Mettler Toledo in 2018.FIGURE 7Barclays Mettler Toledo PMI Tracker (December FYE)% Growth 20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%Adj. SS Revenue GrowthBarclays Mettler Toledo PMI TrackerSource: Company Documents, Barclays Research70.065.0

34、60.055.050.045.040.035.030.0As a reminder, Mettler Toledo reported 3Q18 earnings on November 8, 2018. During the quarter, results were strong in Asia/ROW (China up 15%), solid in the Americas, and more modest in Europe. For 2019, Mettler Toledo is forecasting MSD or slightly below organic growth in

35、the Americas and Europe. In Asia/ROW, organic growth is forecasted to grow in the MSD or slightly better in 2019.American revenue (38% of 3Q18 total) increased 5% in constant currency and was up 4% organically as Biotix added 1%. Lab had good growth in the quarter and retail was strong due to solid

36、project activity. In industrial, growth declined in both core industrial and product inspection.European revenue (30% of total) increased 3% in constant currency, performing in line with the companys expectations. During the quarter, results for Lab and Food Retail were strong. Alternatively, indust

37、rial was down slightly in the quarter.Asia and ROW (32% of total) grew 11% in constant currency. China again performed well in the quarter, growing 12%. China showed broad strength across Lab, Industrial, and Food Retail. While Mettler Toledo is not seeing any slowdown in demand in China, the compan

38、y remains more cautious on the economic backdrop in the region due to recent trade developments.PerkinElmer PMI Tracker TakeawaysThrough January, the Barclays PerkinElmer PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 52.4 (down 1.1 q/q). Approximately 63% of the companys revenues are generated outside of the Un

39、ited States, with significant exposure to emerging markets. The Barclays PerkinElmer PMI End Market Tracker has a 61% one-quarter leading correlation with the companys organic growth rate. There is a noticeable trend between PerkinElmers geographic exposure and growth over the past 40 quarters (as f

40、ar back as international data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and we note that the solid PMI performance supports PerkinElmers preliminary guidance of 6% organic growth.FIGURE 8Barclays PerkinElmer PMI Tracker (December FYE)% Growth20%15%1

41、0%5%0%-5%-10%-15%-20%Adj. SS Revenue GrowthBarclays PerkinElmer PMI TrackerSource: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchPMI60.055.050.045.040.035.030.0PerkinElmer reported 4Q18 earnings on January 31. Geographically, the company reported double-digit organic growth in the Americas, high single-digit

42、growth in Asia, and low single-digit growth in Europe. Emerging markets now account for 40% of revenues. PerkinElmer looks to continue expanding its reach in India with the recent Tulip diagnostics acquisition. The company is enthusiastic about leveraging the Tulip platform to introduce legacy Perki

43、nElmer and EUROIMMUN products into this market.FIGURE 9PerkinElmer End Market CommentaryOrganic Growth4Q161Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18Diagnostics7.0%8.1%0.8%5.0%6.0%3.6%3.6%3.6%3.6%Reproductive HealthHSD GrowthNewborn ScreeningDD Growth HSD GrowthU.S. DownInfectious DiseaseOncologyHSD GrowthMSD

44、GrowthDiscovery & Analytical Solutions-1.0%2.5%1.4%4.2%7.0%4.6%10.0%6.8%4.6%BiopharmaLSD Growth MSD Growth LSD Growth MSD Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth DD GrowthMSD GrowthFoodMid-TeensGrowthMSD Growth LSD Decline20%GrowthHSD Growth MSD Growth MSD Growth DD Growth MSD GrowthEnvironmentalDecline HSD Gr

45、owth LSD Growth LSD Growth DD Growth MSD Growth DD Growth MSD Growth HSD Growth AcademicMSD Growth LSD Decline LSD Decline LSD Growth LSD Decline MSD Growth MSD GrowthHSD Growth IndustrialDeclineFlat LSD growth LSD growth LSD Growth LSD Decline HSD Growth LSD Decline LSD Growth Consolidated Americas

46、LSD Decline LSD Decline MSD Growth MSD Growth LSD Growth MSD Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth DD Growth EuropeFlatLSD Growth LSD Decline LSD Growth DD Growth MSD Growth DD Growth LSD Growth LSD GrowthAsiaDD GrowthHigh teensFlatHSD Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth DD Growth DD Growth HSD GrowthChinaStrongDD

47、Growth DD Growth DD Growth DD Growth DD Growth DD Growth DD Growth JapanSource: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchThermo Fisher PMI Tracker TakeawaysThrough December, the Barclays Thermo Fisher PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 53.3 (down 0.9 q/q). Approximately 51% Thermo Fishers revenues are gen

48、erated outside of the United States, with exposure to China (10% of revenues), Germany (5%) and the UK (4%) among others. The Barclays Thermo Fisher End Market Tracker has a 50% one-quarter leading correlation with the companys organic growth rate. Again, optically there is a noticeable trend betwee

49、n Thermo Fishers geographic exposure and growth over the past 40 quarters (as far back as international data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Trackeris best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and we note the solid recent PMI Tracker performance should bode well for Thermo Fisher in 2019, as

50、 the company is guiding to 5% growth at the midpoint.FIGURE 10Barclays Thermo Fisher PMI Tracker (December FYE)% Growth 12%10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%Adj. SS Revenue GrowthBarclays Thermo Fisher PMI TrackerPMI60.055.050.045.040.035.030.0Source: Haver Analytics, ISM, MARKIT, Barclays ResearchAs a reminder

51、, Thermo Fisher reported 4Q18 earnings on Wednesday, January 30. Geographic commentary was strong, highlighted by over 19% growth in China despite a difficult comparison. Demand in Asia-Pacific continued, as low-teens growth was highlighted by strength in China. Thermo Fisher remains encouraged by t

52、he China market, and despite rhetoric around trade, customer behavior in the region remains very encouraging. CEO Casper noted that the company saw broad end market strength in the region. Thermo Fisher continues to believe that its industry-leading scale and breadth are allowing the company to diff

53、erentiate itself in the region. The company delivered high single-digit growth in North America and high single-digit growth in Europe. The rest of the world grew in the mid-single digits in 4Q18.FIGURE 11Geographies1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18Geographic CommentaryAsia-PacificLDD GrowthHSD Growt

54、hLDD GrowthLow-TeensMid-TeensLow-TeensLow-TeensLow-Teens ChinaHigh-TeensMid-TeensHigh-TeensHigh-TeensHigh-Teens 20% Growth 20% Growth Just under 20% JapanNorth AmericaLSD Growth 4% LSD Growth HSD Growth LSD Growth MSD Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth EuropeMSD Growth LSD Growth MSD Growth MSD Growth MSD

55、 Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth HSD Growth ROWFlatFlat MSD Growth Low-Teens MSD Growth Low-Teens HSD Growth MSD Growth Source: Company Documents, Barclays ResearchWaters PMI Tracker TakeawaysThrough January, the Barclays Waters PMI Tracker for 1Q19 registers at 52.6 (down 0.9 q/q). Approximately 70% W

56、aters revenues are generated outside of the United States, with exposure to Europe (26% of revenues) and Asia (38%), among others. The Barclays Waters End Market Tracker has a 36% one-quarter leading correlation with the companys organic growth rate. Again, optically there is a noticeable trend betw

57、een Waters geographic exposure and growth over the past 40 quarters (as far back as international data can be tracked). We believe the PMI Tracker is best used as a one-quarter leading indicator, and note that expansionary readings in PMI tracker performance support 2019 organic growth guidance of 5

58、%.FIGURE 12Barclays Waters PMI Tracker (December FYE)% Growth 20%15%10%5%0%-5%-10%Adj. SS Revenue GrowthBarclays Waters PMI TrackerSource: Haver Analytics, ISM, MARKIT, Barclays Research70.065.060.055.050.045.040.035.030.0As a reminder, Waters reported 4Q18 earnings on Thursday, January 24. Growth a

59、cross the geographic end markets was mixed, as Asia drove the result with growth at 9% y/y ex-FX, while the Americas increased 6% y/y ex-FX and Europe declined -1% ex-FX. In Asia, growth was driven by China (up 15% y/y), while results in India were more modest, as expected. In Europe, pharma growth

60、was offset by weakness in the industrial and academic end markets. In the Americas, US grew 5% with a broad-based strength, including a pickup in spending by large pharma companies.FIGURE 13Geographic End Market CommentaryGeographic organic growth1Q172Q173Q174Q171Q182Q183Q184Q18US-7%-2%1%9%5%-2%0%5%