全球-宏观策略宏观经济的下一步是什么

1、September 9, 2018 06:00 AM GMTSunday StartSeptember 9, 2018FROMRESEARCH& Co. ernational plcDaniele AntonucciEconomist | Chief Euro Area Economist Daniele.Antonucci+44 20 7425-8943Italy Is Not the Only Euro-Area Budget StoryLike most investors we talk to, were reluctant to take our eyes off our scree

2、ns in case we miss the next headline on theItalian budget. The numbert comes ouof the month will likely remain a key short-term market driver.We think the feedback loop bet engineer substantial fiscal expann fiscal headlines and the market response will shthee: attempts towill den marketiment, produ

3、cing informal announcements of scaled-backfiscal planst lift investors spirits until the next headline on fiscal expan. While the ride should remainbumpy over the near term, the middle-ground markets.e we envisage may well come as a tactical ref toBut a different budget in Europe has been producing

4、headlines recently not for another country but the euro area asa whole. The newsflow has been eye-catching. Why is Jens Weidmann, theof the German Bundesb,arguingt a euro-area budget could be a good thing? What aboutScholz, the German finance minister, sayingt its time for a euro area-wide unemploym

5、ent insurancheme?Policy-makers from core Europe are raising these ies because, despite a relatively benign macro backdrop, euro-areagrowth is beginning to slow. Risks are now more skewed to the downside. And the longer the cycle runs, and thetighter finanl conditionse, the greater the risk of a new

6、crisis. With ECB monetary policy yet to normalise, acritical question for both policy-makers and investors is whappens when the euro area faa fresh challenge. Willthe next repull Europe together or cause it to fracture?According to the consensus, the past decade has seen limited progress towards ach

7、ieved over the next one. The chanegration, and not much will be s and address its structuraldeficiencies are low. So, when the next crisis hits, the euro area will struggle. To us, this is toogreater chance of fiscala view. We see aThe recent Franco-German agreement in principle on a euro-area budge

8、t is a significant development markets have overlooked. We think it reflects the awarenessthe next downturn, implying a larger role for fiscal policy to provide shock absorbers. In a recent report w the future of Europe could play out over a 10-year horizon. While full fiscal uappears to underestima

9、te the road may be rocky att we be ve he face of rame howarketesome of the structural iesve dogged the euro areahe current cycle.If European policy-makers do bethe consensus and embark on a path of fiscalegration, our strategiststhink markets could deliver significant upside surprises. On the back o

10、f stronger economic grownd a sustaineddrop in risk premia, the region could see a major rally in risk assets, a stronger euro and a normalisation oferestrates. The biggest gap betn our long-run expecions and those of the markets is in European equities where ourFor other important disclosures, refer

11、 to the Disclosure Section, located atof this report.免费获取群内1、2、5+；当日华尔街日报、3、每周4、每月汇总500+份当月（增值服务）扫一扫 关注公号回复：加入“起点财经”群。Sunday Starber 9, 2018strategy team sees value even today, before any longer-term progress. Averaging across our scenarios, European sharepricould end up 120% highern the 10yr forwar

12、d (8.2% compounded). For USD investors, these long-runfigures look even more dramatic.Were not suggestingt further steps towards fiscalegration, along with existing monetary tools, can prevent thenext reor abolish the cycle. But we think markets underestimate thesibilityt policy-makers will respondt

13、o Europes vulnerabilities with moreegration, not less. Despite the obvious difficulties, including political ones, thiscould strengthen the euro-area economy structurally over the longer term.Along with other market participants, well be back staring at our screens tomorrow, on the lookout for the n

14、ext signalfrom Italy.he me, enjoy your Sunday.back to the topResearch2WHAT WE ARE WATCHING THISKMONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2018Japan GDP xpect 2Q GDP growth to come in at 2.8%Q saar revised up from 1.9%Q saarhe preliminary report.China Inflation CPI likely remained fla2.1%Y in August, while PPI likely mo

15、derated to 4.0%Y in August from 4.6%Y in July.UK Industrial Production xpect growth to come in at 0.3%M in July, from 0.5%M in June.UK Manufacturing Production xpect growth to come in at 0.2%M in July, from 0.4%M in June.UK Monthly GDP We think GDP growth will come in at 0.4% 3M/3M, implying a mild

16、contraction in growth in July.UK Index of Servi Given weak sentiment surveys in July,xpect a -0.1%M contraction.MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 10, 2018 - SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 15, 2018China Monetary Data Broad credit growth likely edged down to 11.5%Y in August (vs. 11.6%Y in July), and M2 likely edged up to 8.6%Y

17、 in August (vs. 8.5%Y in July).TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 11, 2018UK Averagekly Earnings (Ex. Bonuses) We forecast the headline pay measure to rise by 2.9% 3M/Y, lifted by NHS wage increases feeding through the figures.WHAT IM READING THISKEUROPEAN ECONOMICS, EQUITY AND FIXEDECROSS-ASSET STRATEGYSTRATEGYCro

18、ss-Asset Dispatches: Reducing US Stocks to +0%, The Future of Europe: Fiscalegration Has a GreaterAdding to Securitized CreditChancen You ThinkUS PUBLIC POLICYEUROPEAN EQUITY STRATEGYGrading the Midterms Ten Things to Think about for the Rest of the YearSunday Starber 9, 2018Privacy Policyback to th

19、e topResearch3UK ILO Unemployment Rate We forecast the jobless rate to have stayed at 4% in July (3-month moving average).UK Employment Change We forecast 30k jobs added in July from three months ear r.Germany ZEW Survey Current Situation Likely ticking up somewhat to 73.0.German ZEW Survey Expecion

20、s Moving up to -10.1, but staying below its long term average.WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 12, 2018Euro Area Industrial Production 0.6%M decline expected.US PPI We look for headline PPI to rise 0.19%M, lowering the year/year rate to 3.2%Y from 3.3%Y.US PPI Ex Food, Energy, and Trade Servi We look for core P

21、PI to rise 0.24%M in August, raising the year/year rate to 3.0%Y from 2.8%Y.THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 13, 2018UK BoE Rates Decixpect the MPC to stay on hold in September, and not move before more clarity on Brexit.Turkey CBT Rates Deci In a recent press release the central bsedt recent developments regard

22、ing the inflation outlook indicated significant risks to pritability andt monetary policy will be adjusted in view of recent developments. Consensus expects an increasehe 1-k repo rate to 21.0% from 17.75% previously.ECB Meeting Expecting a balanced message, with the focus on staff projections.US CP

23、I We see headline CPI rising 0.31%M in August after 0.17%M in July, with the year/year rate ticking down to 2.8%Y from 2.9%Y.US CPI Ex Food and Energy We look for core CPI to rise 0.21%M in August after 0.24%M in July, with the year/year rate ticking down to 2.3%Y to 2.4%Y.AU Labour Force xpect +12k

24、 jobs added in August, with the unemployment rate ticking back up to 5.4%.FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 14, 2018China Retail Sales Growth likely edged down to 8.7%Y in August from 8.8%Y in July.China Industrial Production Growth likely remained fla6.0%Y in August.China Fixed Assets Ex Rural YTD Growth likely ed

25、ged down to 5.4%Y in August (vs. 5.5%Y in July), but its imp d single-month growth likely rebounded modestly to 4.5%Y (vs. 3.1%Y in July).US Retail Sales Advance We see headline retail sales rising 0.3%M in August, and the core retail control group up 0.2%M.US Industrial Production Consensus looks f

26、or industrial production to rise 0.3%M in August.Russia CBR Rate Decixpect the CBR to keep the key rate on hold at 7.25%.Sunday Starber 9, 2018Disclosure Section& Co.ernational plc, authorized by the Prudential Regulatory Authority and regulated by the Finan l Conduct Authorityand the Prudential Reg

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