去全球化的风险大流行病后世界的贸易

1、Trade in a post-pandemic worldDeglobalisation risk?EconomicsGlobalThe COVID-19 pandemic has intensified concerns that globalisation is in retreatWe expect adjustments in trade patterns and supply chains, but argue trade will persist as integration advances in some areasTo compete, leading businesses

2、 are investing in innovation, resilience, agility, sustainability & efficiency; reaping trade gainsDeglobalisation debate in focusThe pandemic has elicited calls from some for policies to drive further reshoring of strategic businesses, reduce reliance on overseas suppliers, and support national cha

3、mpions. Past experience had already shown the need to address adjustment costs and negative effects of globalisation. But, is deglobalisation that is, a broad unwinding of economic institutions, international ties, and market openness taking hold? This note takes stock of the state of globalisation,

4、 the risks currently faced, and the possible path ahead. We highlight 10 key issues to watch.The good newsIn the run-up to the COVID-19 pandemic, the pace of globalisation had slowed, but this was far from a reversal of globalisation. Protectionist policies weighed on trade at the margin, but the bu

5、lk of global economic integration remained intact. The trade intensity of the global economy remained well above pre-2000 levels. Yet, some shifts were underway, motivated in part by a need to improve resilience in supply chains in light of experience with natural disasters and geopolitical risks. W

6、e expect these shifts to continue, but to do so within an evolving global trade framework.Next stepsWith disruption mounting from the pandemic, some policy makers are seeking to accelerate recovery via increased market openness. Trade corridors across Asia, Europe, and points beyond may benefit. And

7、, although essential WTO reforms remain out of reach for now, a group of nations has come together with an interim patch for the dispute settlement mechanism. The proposed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership deal is advancing in Asia, despite Indias withdrawal. And the EU-Vietnam bilateral a

8、ccord is on track for implementation later in 2020. And more trade deals are in the pipeline.Commercial implicationsBusinesses should maintain their competitive stance. Geopolitical, health, and other risks remain. But, with trade deals delivering increased openness on some corridors, new opportunit

9、ies will emerge. The pandemic may have helped promote expansion of the virtual economy and new ways of doing business that may be leveraged (e.g., less travel, more online). Challenges to globalisation mean that efficiency is less of a singular focus. Observers report that digitisation for real time

10、 tracking of processes, optionality in sourcing and sales, and agility along the entire supply chain can help to improve systemic resilience. Investment in innovation remains important for differentiating products in terms of cost, quality, characteristics, branding, and sustainability.Doug Lippoldt

11、Chief Trade Economist HSBC Bank plc HYPERLINK mailto:douglas.lippoldt douglas.lippoldt+44 20 7992 03751 June 2020Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it.Issuer of

12、report: HSBC Bank plcView HSBC Global Research at:https:/ HYPERLINK / Executive SummaryGlobalisation is in a state of distress, but not lost. We argue that trade patterns are adjusting in response to ongoing economic, social, and environmental stress. Trade-related institutions are having to adapt t

13、o new political realities in order to remain relevant. Tensions that already constrain commerce along some corridors, such as between the US and China, may be exacerbated by calls for domestic sourcing and self-sufficiency. Such challenges are being accentuated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Businesses a

14、re having to adapt by looking beyond traditional economic efficiency objectives. They are employing multifaceted strategies to improve resilience to policy shocks and natural disasters, as well as rising demands for sustainability. Despite the turbulence, the policy makers in most leading economies

15、continue to value the gains that accrue from a rules-based framework for trade. This provides a basis for reform, in our view. Action is required now to address impediments at the WTO. And, more work is needed to conclude several pending regional trade accords. Our assessment provides 10 key takeawa

16、ys for trade, ranging from the macro to the micro.Economic recovery from the pandemic will likely be gradual: The post-pandemic period is likely to see continued caution on the part of consumers and businesses, particularly among those that were damaged financially during the crisis. As IMF Chief Ec

17、onomist Gita Gopinath notes in Prospect Magazine (June 2020), the pandemic will drive people to reassess costs and benefits of globalisation. Having experienced disruption from such a tail risk as this pandemic, business leaders will review supply chain interdependencies and move to address vulnerab

18、ilities. Out of health and hassle considerations, individuals are likely to curtail a portion of their travel plans even as formal travel restrictions are relaxed. There is a risk that some policy makers will exploit such concerns to promote fears and recourse to protectionism; others may simply hit

19、 the pause button on further liberalisation. Businesses and consumers may demonstrate reserve in their expenditures in a manner that will impact economic growth and trade.Calls for domestic sourcing have increased as part of efforts to improve public health system resilience: In the aftermath of the

20、 pandemic, public policy will likely include support for domestic capacity in production of essential medical products and stockpiles for short-term emergency needs. One example is the EUs emerging plan for strategicautonomy in the sector. But, it appears that many policy makers are aiming to limit

21、such efforts to critical elements, while avoiding larger scale disruption to trade. Still, a risk remains that some may take more expansive steps. Policy vigilance will be required for businesses engaged in trade in health-related sectors and potentially other areas.The WTO must reform to stay relev

22、ant: As the institution providing the basic framework for the multilateral trading system, the World Trade Organization (WTO) needs improved performance in each of its main functions: negotiation of gradual, fair, rules-based trade liberalisation; settlement of disputes concerning the WTO rules and

23、their implementation; provision of transparency concerning members progress in implementation of the agreements (including a timely notification by members of policy changes); and provision of appropriate support for developing nations via capacity building initiatives and trade preferences. There a

24、re some positive signs in some areas. Already some 46 members have agreed and launched an interim patch to restart the appeals function under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism (which had been blocked by the US refusal to permit appointment of new adjudicators). But, other important reforms are la

25、gging (e.g., a permanent fix for appeals, limits on fishing subsidies, and stronger disciplines on trade-distorting state support for businesses). Many WTO members support reform efforts based on incremental changes in the existing framework, with larger scale agreements on specific issues (possibly

26、 on an opt in basis). Others, such as the US may or may not pull back. With the WTO Ministerial Conference expected next year, now is the time for the WTO advocates to hammer out a reform agenda.1China remains a key market: We expect China to continue as a market of keen interest to multinational bu

27、siness, despite tensions on the US-China trade corridor. As the second largest economy of the world, with tremendous productive capacity and scale of consumer demand, international businesses will continue to invest and produce locally, and trade in China. For many firms, it has become a target mark

28、et in its own right. Commercial reforms are ongoing, including trade liberalisation at the border and behind the border. For example, the US-China Phase One trade agreement signed on 15 January 2020, included new market access provisions for financial services providers, trade facilitation for agric

29、ultural products, further intellectual property reforms, and more.2 And, for WTO members, China has reduced most-favoured-nation (MFN) tariffs for hundreds of products.3 International businesses often remain engaged in China with a view to producing goods and services there not only for internationa

30、l markets, but also for the Chinese domestic market.ASEAN gets a boost from supply chain shifts: ASEAN will continue to benefit from investment inflows related to business efforts to improve supply chain resilience. Due in part to US-China trade impediments, ASEAN has become an important source regi

31、on for products going to the US market. The region is gaining in scale and a growing middle class is making it an attractive destination market as well. Business conditions are improving thanks to policy reforms that are advancing in a gradual, stepwise fashion (e.g., under the ASEAN Blueprint 2025

32、initiative). Trade agreements are helping to improve inbound and outbound market access across the Asia-Pacific region as well as with Europe. More trade deals are in the pipeline. Thus, it is not surprising that ASEAN members may benefit from increased recourse1 The Ministerial Conference is the hi

33、ghest-level body of the WTO. It normally meets biennially and was originally planned for June 2020.2 See, USTR, “Economic And Trade Agreement Between The Government Of The United States Of America And The Government Of The Peoples Republic Of China Text”, 15 January 2020. Also, see S. Lester (2019),

34、 “Does China comply with its WTO obligations?” Cato Institute, 19 November, and also the underlying references. And, on intellectual property rights, see Foreign Policy, “Chinas record on intellectual property rights is getting better and better”, 16 October 2019.3 For example, see WTO (2020), An ec

35、onomic analysis of the US-China trade conflict, WTO staff paper, February. MFN tariffs are the standard, non-preferential tariffs available to any WTO member, except where punitive additional tariffs are imposed (e.g., in the case of anti-dumping duties, countervailing duties to offset subsidies, or

36、 other trade defence measures).by businesses to “China plus one” supply chain restructuring efforts. It is worth noting that ASEAN members are not alone in benefitting from this type of supply chain adjustment as countries such as India and Mexico have also attracted related investments.Trade libera

37、lisation efforts are continuing in much of the world. Even as trade policy uncertainty is affecting markets such as the US, UK, or Argentina, much of the rest of the world is intent on advancing its liberalisation agenda. Deals are pending for a pan-Asian free trade area (RCEP), an expansion of an e

38、xisting Trans-Pacific accord (CPTPP), and new EU bilateral accords with countries in Asia, LatAm, and other regions. Trade liberalisation appears set to continue on a large scale. Even as some countries pull back, this pipeline of new trade deals bodes well for the rest of the world. This multiplici

39、ty of deals leaves open the future challenge of eventually consolidating the overlapping accords, including some that may not align very well (e.g., on the issue of investor-state dispute settlement). There will be further gains to be had from multilateralising these accords at the global level, pre

40、ferably via a reformed WTO.The agenda has broadened for supply chain optimisation: Supply chains are increasingly optimised for a menu of considerations including resilience and sustainability (including ESG considerations, see HSBC, Trade and the environment, 10 December 2020), rather than a singul

41、ar focus on more traditional efficiency considerations. Systemic approaches will play a role, as governments and business strive for economic resilience (see Annex). As part of supply chain restructuring, some businesses are talking about shifting from extremely lean “just in time” systems to “just

42、in case” systems, though financial constraints in the aftermath of the pandemic will likely mean there is a continued need for discipline in building out inventories. Digitisation is playing a role in managing the rising complexity, helping to provide optionality and agility in supply chains.Trade o

43、penness is still the norm: Even with the rise in protectionism in some areas and possible new liberalisation in others, businesses should not lose sight of the continuation of existing openness to trade across much of the global economy. Trade policy uncertainty means that vigilance is required and

44、risks must be assessed. But, much of the pre-crisis openness remains in place. The door for growth may already be open and some current trade potential remains untapped. The rewards in terms of growth can make worthwhile the up-front investment required to discover new trade opportunities. The trade

45、 intensity of the global economy remains much higher now than in the pre-2000 period, despite some deceleration in the pace of trade growth.Investment in innovation is an essential consideration for firms in a competitive trade landscape: Businesses that invest in R&D tend to grow their net sales an

46、d exports. The contribution of innovation for achieving new or improved production processes, products or product characteristics, quality, cost reduction (productivity), and brand differentiation can be critical for growth. And, investment in R&D can support resilience, particularly when complement

47、ed by diversification (products or markets). The location for R&D appears to matter: experience shows that successful efforts often rely on availability of appropriate protection for intellectual property and on openness to trade (for imports and exports of inputs, and eventual final products).Techn

48、ological developments will significantly influence the operation of the global economy. While high levels of policy (and medical) uncertainty persist, it is clear that increased recourse to digital technology is reshaping large parts of the global economy. Of course, this had begun prior to the pand

49、emic, but COVID-19 has accelerated developments through demands for remote working, real time supply chain management, and increases in e-commerce. Roll out will continue with respect to waves of emergent technologies ranging from 5G, to 3D printing, artificial intelligence, robotics and automation,

50、 biotechnology,and more.My list of the underlying values of the WTO has 16 entries: Peace, stability (certainty), rule of law, well-being, equality, non-discrimination, sovereignty, universality, development, transparency, sustainability, market forces, convergence, reciprocity, international cooper

51、ation, and moralityAlan Wolff, WTO Deputy Director General, This is the time to consider the future of the multilateral trading system, 27 May 2020ContentsTOC o 1-2 h z u HYPERLINK l _TOC_250011 Executive Summary 2 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250010 A mid-course correction? 7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250009 Macro syst

52、emic risks 7 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250008 Can globalisation survive? 8 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250007 Globalisation hesitation 12 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250006 Trade and social strains 15 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250005 A mixed trade policy picture 19 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250004 What about global value chain production? 21 HYPER

53、LINK l _TOC_250003 Commercial implications 26 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250002 Annex OECD review of what is required for systemic resilience 28 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250001 Disclosure appendix 29 HYPERLINK l _TOC_250000 Disclaimer 31A mid-course correction?Globalisation has delivered positive output results, but

54、contributed to societal stress via income inequality and job displacementAdjustments to the economic policy framework could respond to fairness concerns, while retaining most gains from opennessBusinesses looking ahead can find opportunities in the tumult, while boosting their own resilience and agi

55、lityMacro systemic risksStephen King argues that while internal lockdowns are being eased, external border measures are likely to persistCertainly, the COVID-19 pandemic is having a dramatic impact on trade for the current year and likely well into 2021. The latest WTO Goods Trade Barometer (20 May

56、2020), an indicator of real-time developments in merchandise trade relative to the long-term growth trends, came in at its lowest level since its inception back in 2011 (a score of 87.6, where 100 equals the long-term rising trend). The WTO noted that trade in electronics and agricultural raw materi

57、als held up fairly well, coming in at just a few points below trend during the recent period. But, other trade dimensions fared much worse (e.g. international air freight, container port throughput, export orders, and automobile production and sales), coming in at 11.5 points or more below trend. In

58、 other words, the short-term prospects look grim, with the indicator foreshadowing substantial underperformance in trade. But what about the longer term?HSBCs Stephen King weighed in on this issue recently (HSCB, After the pandemic, 23 April 2020). He notes that while internal lockdowns are being ea

59、sed, the external lockdowns (i.e., border measures) are likely to persist in order to avoid reinfection of the domestic population. Moreover, in terms of international trade, an important economic policy risk is that governments will seek to support national champion firms and strategic industries.

60、Such a policy orientation could arise in order to reduce vulnerability that comes from dependence on global supply chains in critical areas related to capacity to respond to medical emergencies. More broadly, the nationalism and protectionism that had emerged over the past decade look set to continu