全球能源转型系列：商业规模的融合

1、Global Research21 May 2020Global Energy Transition Call SeriesGlobalExpert Call: Commercial scale fusion; Slide deck & transcriptWe hosted a call with ITERWe hosted a call with Colette Ricketts, Project Controls Section Leader at ITER. ITER is a multi-governmental partnership currently constructing

2、the largest nuclear fusion reactor in the world. The call was part of our ongoing UBS Energy Transition Call Series which aims to deepen clients understanding of the on-going energy transition. To schedule a call with Jon Windham click here.Key takeaways from the presentationThe views expressed belo

3、w are those of the speaker and do not necessarily reflect those of UBS.ITER is aiming to provide proof of fusion physics scalability into a working power station. Goal of project is to demonstrate net energy production with a target of 10 x more power out than in. Fusion meets dual goals of decarbon

4、izing electric supply and providing safe baseload power w/ high energy density.Challenges: Plasma must be heated to 115mn degrees C, (10 x hotter than center of sun). Plasma is contained utilizing super conducting magnets which must be operated at -260 degrees C, all within space of a few meters.Dif

5、ferences from traditional nuclear fission: Fission divides isotopes which creates byproducts that last centuries whereas fusion joins isotopes, creating byproducts that last 100 years (can be more easily managed). Fusion reaction is difficult to sustain eliminating possibility of runaway chain react

6、ions (nuclear meltdown), enhancing safety. Equivalent of 1 laptop battery and half tub of seawater will provide enough energy for 1 person for 30 years, making fusion resource light and extremely energy dense.Project cost: 90% of components provided for free by member countries. Notional cost is $13

7、bn, but members spend whatever is required to provide components. Actual cost likely much higher.Timeline: 65% of work complete. Target first plasma by 2025; expect to achieve net power generation in 2035.Slide deck & transcript enclosedIn this note we republish the slide deck from the call, courtes

8、y of ITER. A transcript from our call follows the slide deck.EnergyEquitiesJon Windham, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:jon.windham jon.windham+1-617-478-4711Daniel Ford, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:dan.ford dan.ford+1-212-713-2224Sam Arie Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:sam.arie sam.arie+44-20-7567 1107Willia

9、m Grippin, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:william.grippin william.grippin+1-617-478 4740 HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 49. UBS does and seeks to do business with companie

10、s covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.May Call ScheduleRegistration li

11、nks below, all calls held at 11am Eastern Time.Energy Transition Series call scheduleMay 13: EV infrastructure w/ Alliance for Transportation ElectrificationMay 14: Hydrogen energy at scale w/ Green Hydrogen CoalitionMay 19: Role of storage in the energy transition w/ Simpliphi PowerMay 20: Commerci

12、al EV market outlook w/ GreenPower MotorMay 21: Vanadium flow batteries w/ Invinity: https:/bit.ly/35nAf42May 27: 5 minute EV charging w/ StoreDot: https:/bit.ly/3bW0CADMay 28: Long duration grid storage w/ Form Energy: https:/bit.ly/3aQTgNjMay 29: Role of software in the energy transition w/ Codibl

13、y: https:/bit.ly/3d73GtSMay Call DetailsEnergy Expert: Overview of utility-led EV infrastructure at the state level w/ Alliance for Transportation Electrification. Wednesday, May 13, 2020 11:00am ET.Energy Expert: Hydrogen energy at scale w/ Green Hydrogen Coalition. Thursday, May 14, 2020 11:00am E

14、T. On the call we discussed the potential for green hydrogen to be harnessed as an energy source to drive decarbonization across sectors.Energy Leaders: The role of distributed energy storage in accelerating the energy transition w/ Simpliphi Power. Tuesday, May 19, 2020 11:00am ET. Simpliphi Power

15、develops safer lithium-based on & off grid battery storage products which have improved cycling capabilities compared to traditional lithium ion storage. On the call we discussed the role of distributed energy storage in accelerating the energy transition.Energy Leaders: Commercial EV market outlook

16、 w/ GreenPower Motor. Wednesday, May 20, 2020 11:00am ET. GreenPower Motor develops electric vehicles for commercial markets. On the call we discussed the market outlook for commercial EVs.Energy Leaders: Vanadium flow batteries w/ Invinity. Thursday, May 21, 2020 11:00am ET. Invinitys vanadium flow

17、 batteries offer non-degrading energy storage and have been deployed worldwide alongside renewables as an alternative to conventional lithium-ion batteries. Pre-register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: 5 minute EV charging what does it take? w/ StoreDot. Wednesday, May 27,

18、 2020 11:00am ET. Store dot develops fast-charging lithium ion battery technology capable of enabling an EV to fully charge in 5 minutes. On the call we will discuss the market for EV fast charging. Pre- register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy Leaders: Long duration grid storage w

19、/ Form Energy. Thursday, May 28, 2020 11:00am ET. Form energy is developing low-cost, long-duration sulfur based battery storage systems intended to provide months-long energy storage and enable replacement of goal and gas generation. Pre- register here for access code and calendar reminder.Energy L

20、eaders: Role of software in the energy transition w/ Codibly. Friday, May 29, 2020 11:00am ET. Codibly provides software to optimize energy use & management for a variety of end-markets & assets. On the call we will discuss the role of software in the energy transition. Pre-register here for access

21、code and calendar reminder.Video replays from previous callsEngaging corporates on climate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkU.S. renewable cost, performance, and value w/ LBNL: linkClimate change impacts w/ EPA: linkEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recyc

22、ling: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Chanje: linkTranscripts & slide decks from previous callsEnergy StoragePotential for batteries to provide peaking capacity w/ NREL: linkRate design impact on behind the meter storage w/ LBNL: linkThe economics of grid storage w/ Ascend Analytics: linkT

23、he US storage market w/ SEPA: linkPumped hydro energy storage w/ Absaroka Energy: linkIron flow batteries w/ ESS: linkVanadium flow batteries w/ UET: linkLiquid air energy storage w/ Highview Power: linkPotentially disruptive battery tech w/ Ionic Materials: linkScalable, safe, long-duration energy

24、storage w/ Eos: linkFlywheel energy storage w/ Teraloop: linkResidential energy storage w/ Cinnamon Energy: linkGrid connected batteries w/ NantEnergy: linkScalable plug & play battery storage w/ SolPad: linkWind, solar and other renewable generationU.S. residential solar trends w/ EnergySage: linkU

25、tility scale solar development w/ Intersect Power: linkGlobal renewables outlook w/ IEA: linkWind & solar growth, cost, & value w/ LBNL: linkEvolution of renewable PPAs w/ RES Group: linkDigitally enabled PPAs w/ WePower: linkU.S. distributed solar trends w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: link1Q19 U.S. win

26、d market update w/ AWEA: linkCost competitiveness of US wind & solar w/ Lawrence Berkeley Labs: linkU.S. solar outlook w/ NREL: link1Q19 solar market update w/ NREL: linkOff-shore wind w/ BOEM: linkUsing data to drive down wind costs w/ NREL: linkDistributed wind generation w/ American Wind: linkThe

27、 outlook for US wind demand w/ AWEA: linkOutlook for UK waste-to-energy w/ Tolvik: linkCommunity solar w/ Ecogy Energy: linkThermal solar & storage w/ SolarReserve: linkRenewable cost decline trends & outlook w/ NREL: linkAssessing solar project risk w/ kWh Analytics: linkAirborne wind energy w/ Amp

28、yx Power: linkHigh altitude kite wind power w/ SkySails: linkTethered aircraft wind energy w/ Twing Tec: linkFlexible CIGS solar modules w/ Sunflare Solar: linkNuclear innovation w/ TerraPower: linkNuclear trends and outlook w/ World Nuclear Association: linkSolar system modeling & design w/ Aurora

29、Solar: linkThe Energy TransitionEvolving US energy system w/ NREL: linkLong-term forecast for energy transition w/ DNVGL: link2019 Annual Energy Outlook w/ EIA: linkThe geopolitics of the energy transition w/ IRENA: linkCorporate renewable demand w/ RMI: linkAviation industry climate change strategy

30、 w/ IATA: linkFuture of alternative fuel in the aviation industry: linkTransactive energy systems w/ SEPA: linkClean energy portfolio economics w/ RMI: linkClean energy portfolios and stranded asset risk w/ RMI: linkCommunity choice aggregation w/ NREL: linkCarbon capture and storage w/ Global CCS I

31、nstitute: linkCarbon capture and storage update w/ Global CCS Institute: linkNatural gas powered vehicles w/ NGVAmerica: linkBlockchain systems for the energy sector w/ Electron: linkElectric Vehicle ChargingEV fleet charging as a service w/ AMPLY Power: linkThe trillion dollar EV opportunity w/ Cha

32、nje: linkThe bull case for EV penetration w/ ReThinkX: linkWireless EV charging w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging update w/ Momentum Dynamics: linkWireless EV charging w/ HEVO: linkEV fast charging w/ EVgo: linkEV infrastructure w/ eCarUp: linkOS for EV charge networks w/ GreenFlux: lin

33、kWireless EV charging w/ WiTricity. linkCloud based EV charge management w/ EV Connect: linkSmart EV charging w/ eMotorWerks: linkSmart HomeSmart home energy w/ Sense: linkClimate ChangeClimate change w/ UN: linkClimate assessment w/ EPA: linkClimate change public opinion w/ Yale: linkEngaging corpo

34、rates on climate change w/ UBS Asset Management: linkManagement callsSolaredge (SEDG) Diversification strategy: linkEnphase (ENPH) Future of inverter technology: linkGenerac (GNRC) Solar + storage: linkWaste Connections (WCN) People & culture: linkWaste Connections (WCN) Pricing strategy: linkWaste

35、Management (WM) Volume outlook: linkWaste Management (WM) People First foccus: linkRepublic Services (RSG) Talent retention: linkAdvanced Disposal (ADSW) Market selection: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Future of recycling: linkCasella Waste (CWST) Northeast waste market: linkHannon Armstrong (HASI) Behin

36、d the meter opportunity: linkPrevious conference callsDateGuest speakersTopic28-Apr-20esVoltaEnergy storage business outlook23-Apr-20EnergySageU.S. residential solar trends16-Apr-20Mobility HouseIntegrating EVs and the grid14-Apr-20Motive Power systemsCommercial fleet EV conversion8-Apr-20Boston Con

37、sulting GroupImpacts of COVID-19 on utilities7-Apr-20EnerSys/OutBackBattery-based renewable energy systems6-Apr-20ECOLPFAS impacts on waste industry2-Apr-20Blink chargingCloud based EV charge networks1-Apr-20Akin GumpThe tax equity market26-Mar-20UBS Analyst: Dan Ford & Jon WindhamThe U.S. grid to 2

38、03025-Mar-20Commonwealth Fusion SystemsPath to commercial fusion energy20-Mar-20ApparentOptimizing renewables integration18-Mar-20Agora EnergiewendeEuropean energy transition13-Mar-20AWEAU.S. wind market update12-Mar-20Azure PowerUtility scale solar development in India11-Mar-20NuvveEV vehicle to gr

39、id technology10-Mar-20ITERCommercial scale fusion energy28-Feb-20EV ConnectCloud based EV charge management27-Feb-20Global CCS InstituteStatus of carbon capture & storage26-Feb-20Absaroka EnergyPumped hydro energy storage25-Feb-20Intersect PowerUtility scale renewables development24-Feb-20TerraPower

40、Advanced nuclear energy systems14-Jan-20GreenFluxOS for EV charge networks17-Dec-19IEAGlobal renewables outlook12-Dec-19Waste ConnectionsPeople & culture10-Dec-19SolpadResidential battery storage9-Dec-19World Nuclear AssociationGlobal nuclear power trends5-Dec-19Aurora SolarDistributed solar plannin

41、g & design4-Dec-19Waste ManagementPeople First focus4-Dec-19Sunflare SolarFlexible CIGS solar module technology3-Dec-19Casella WasteDeep dive on recycling21-Nov-19LBNLWind & solar growth, cost, and value19-Nov-19GeneracResidential solar & storage18-Nov-19ChanjeEV opportunity for proactive utilities1

42、4-Nov-19LBNLGrid connected PV trends13-Nov-19NGVAmericaNatural gas vehicles15-Oct-19SkysailsHigh altitude kite wind power14-Oct-19ElectronBlockchain systems for the energy system11-Oct-19Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryRate design for behind the meter storage7-Oct-19RMIClean energy portfolios a

43、nd stranded assets4-Oct-19WePowerDigitally enabled PPAsDateGuest speakersTopic3-Oct-19NRELBatteries to provide peaking capacity2-Oct-19AMPLY PowerEV fleet charging20-Sep-19EnphaseFuture of solar inverter technology17-Sep-19RES GroupThe evolution of renewable PPAs12-Sep-19Momentum DynamicsWireless EV

44、 charging11-Sep-19NRELU.S. solar market update23-Jul-19UBS AnalystPower, Utilities, and Alt Energy 2Q preview23-Jul-19NRELUsing data to drive down wind cost18-Jul-19Twing TecAirborne wind energy16-Jul-19UBS Asset ManagementEngaging with corporates on climate change11-Jul-19Key Capture EnergyBuilding

45、 large scale energy storage projects10-Jul-19Ampyx PowerTethered wind energy systems8-Jul-19kWh AnalyticsAssessing solar project risk25-Jun-19NantEnergyZinc air energy storage19-Jun-19Cinnamon EnergyResidential battery storage14-Jun-19Global CCS InstituteGlobal carbon capture and storage trends13-Ju

46、n-19IRENARenewable cost decline potential7-Jun-19AWEAU.S. wind market update21-May-19IEAGlobal energy and emissions trends10-May-19NRELCommunity choice aggregation30-Apr-19NRELU.S. solar market outlook26-Apr-19RMIClean energy portfolio economics25-Apr-19Yale Program on Climate ChangeClimate change p

47、ublic opinion16-Apr-19eMotorWerksEV grid management15-Apr-19WiTricityWireless EV charging11-Apr-19TeraloopKinetic energy storage29-Mar-19eCarUpEV charging28-Mar-19HASIBehind the meter opportunity22-Mar-19SEPATransactive energy systems21-Mar-19NEC Energy StorageLithium ion battery storage20-Mar-19Evg

48、oEV fast charging15-Mar-19IATAAirline climate change impacts14-Mar-19SEDGDeep dive on diversification strategy8-Mar-19RMIEconomics of zero energy homes5-Mar-19EOS StorageLithium ion battery alternatives28-Feb-19American WindDistributed wind power27-Feb-19FabriqEnergy efficiency26-Feb-19EPA4th Nation

49、al Climate Assessment25-Feb-19EIA2019 Annual Energy Outlook20-Feb-19CorPower OceanWave energy12-Feb-19IRENAGeopolitics of the energy transitionDateGuest speakersTopic22-Jan-19NRELElectrifying the US energy system22-Jan-19UBS Analyst4Q18 earnings preview9-Jan-19Rocky Mountain InstituteCorporate deman

50、d for renewables8-Jan-19AmpionCommunity solar4-Jan-19UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions19-Dec-18UN working group on climate changeGlobal warming mitigation & impacts13-Dec-18UBS AnalystUS demand for new generation capacity13-Dec-18Ascend AnalyticsEconomics of grid battery storage7-Dec-18

51、American Wind Energy Association2019 US wind outlook & trends6-Dec-18RSG managementTalent Management3-Dec-18WM managementVolume outlook30-Nov-18DNVGLEnergy outlook to 205029-Nov-18Momentum DynamicsHigh powered wireless EV charging28-Nov-18FerroampSmart home energy devices20-Nov-18Smart Electric Powe

52、r AllianceTrends in U.S. battery storage market16-Nov-18Ice EnergyIce storage for peak load reduction9-Nov-18PolyJouleInnovative mass market battery storage2-Nov-18Bureau of Ocean Energy ManagementU.S. offshore wind market26-Oct-18SunnovaLargest private residential solar company22-Oct-18UBS Global A

53、nalystGlobal renewable energy trends18-Oct-18Lawrence Berkeley Natl LabsTrends in the US wind & solar markets18-Oct-18UBS Analyst3Q18 earnings preview, Utility & Alt. Energy16-Oct-18Highview PowerLiquid air energy storage technology12-Oct-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market Q&A11-Oct-18

54、SolarReserveSolar & integrated storage developer10-Oct-18Ecogy SolarDistributed solar developer9-Oct-18ReThink XEV impacts on global energy systems5-Oct-18HEVOWireless EV charging4-Oct-18UETGrid scale flow batteries25-Sep-18TolvikUK & Ireland Waste-to-Energy outlook19-Sep-18WCN managementFocus on MS

55、W pricing strategy18-Sep-18CWST managementNew England waste market dynamics17-Sep-18ORA managementLong-term growth strategy13-Sep-18ESS Inc.Grid scale flow batteries12-Sep-18NRELUS solar & storage markets10-Sep-18ADSW managementMarket selection strategy6-Sep-18SenseSmart home energy devices28-Aug-18

56、Ionic MaterialsHigh performance battery materials22-Aug-18Halo EnergyDistributed wind generation OEM21-Aug-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions20-Aug-18Sistine SolarSolar module aestheticsDateGuest speakersTopic16-Aug-18TridentWindsCA floatingoffshore winddeveloper13-Aug-18UBS Global Ana

57、lystEU wind OEMs sector launch19-Jul-18UBS Global AnalystTrade war implications11-Jul-18American Wind Energy AssociationUS wind market26-Jun-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUS solar market7-Jun-18UBS Global AnalystGlobal renewables outlook4-Jun-18UBS Global AnalystChina Recycling restrictions24-May-1

58、8UBS AnalystImplications of CA solar mandates7-May-18Smart Electric Power AllianceUtility integration of Electric Vehicles27-Apr-18UBS AnalystOffshore wind outlook28-Mar-18IRENAUS energy storage marketThis presentation was produced solely by ITER. The opinions expressed herein do not necessarily ref

59、lect the views and opinions of UBS. UBS accepts no responsibility for the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the information and will not be liable either directly or indirectly for any loss or damage arising out of the use of this presentation or part thereof.Reproduced with permission.Figure

60、 1: Slide 1Source: ITERFigure 2: Slide 2Source: ITERFigure 3: Slide 3Source: ITERFigure 4: Slide 5Source: ITERFigure 5: Slide 7Source: ITERFigure 6: Slide 8Source: ITERFigure 7: Slide 9Source: ITERFigure 8: Slide 10Source: ITERFigure 9: Slide 12Source: ITERFigure 10: Slide 13Source: ITERFigure 11: S