15个并购估值模型高盛-估值模型通用

1、,一般情景预测,历史数据区,显性期预测,名称,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,产品,分产品收入,杀虫单收入,6,357.00,5,803.00,7,609.00,7,520.13,8,564.74,8,860.08,8,594.27,8,422.39,杀虫双收入,8,233.00,6,753.00,7,648.00,7,192.33,8,191.41,8,473.87,8,304.39,8,138.31,草甘膦收入,0.00,4,761.00,10,946.00,11,522.11,12,962.37,13,826.53,14,402.

2、63,14,402.63,其他收入,5,597.00,7,793.00,9,320.00,9,320.00,10,355.56,10,355.56,10,355.56,11,391.11,高效氟氯氰菊酯,560.00,2,394.00,3,528.00,3,780.00,3,780.00,苯氧菌酯,8,400.00,14,700.00,16,800.00,18,900.00,21,000.00,精喹禾灵,2,160.00,6,300.00,7,200.00,8,100.00,9,000.00,吡虫啉,960.00,2,095.20,2,444.40,2,793.60,3,492.00,啶虫脒,

3、1,040.00,2,340.00,2,730.00,3,120.00,3,900.00,杀虫单收入增长率,38.74%,-8.71%,31.12%,-1.17%,13.89%,3.45%,-3.00%,-2.00%,杀虫双收入增长率,26.14%,-17.98%,13.25%,-5.96%,13.89%,3.45%,-2.00%,-2.00%,草甘膦收入增长率,#VALUE!,#DIV/0!,129.91%,5.26%,12.50%,6.67%,4.17%,0.00%,其他收入增长率,3.12%,39.24%,19.59%,0.00%,11.11%,0.00%,0.00%,10.00%,高效

4、氟氯氰菊酯收入增长率,#DIV/0!,327.50%,47.37%,7.14%,0.00%,苯氧菌酯收入增长率,#DIV/0!,75.00%,14.29%,12.50%,11.11%,精喹禾灵收入增长率,#DIV/0!,191.67%,14.29%,12.50%,11.11%,吡虫啉收入增长率,#DIV/0!,118.25%,16.67%,14.29%,25.00%,啶虫脒收入增长率,#DIV/0!,125.00%,16.67%,14.29%,25.00%,分产品价格,杀虫单均价/万元/吨,1.51,1.29,1.37,1.37,1.48,1.48,1.43,1.40,杀虫双均价/万元/吨,1

5、.63,1.47,1.35,1.31,1.41,1.41,1.38,1.36,草甘膦均价/万元/吨,#DIV/0!,3.17,2.88,2.88,2.88,2.88,2.88,2.88,其他产品均价/万元/吨,46.64,48.71,51.78,51.78,51.78,51.78,51.78,51.78,高效氟氯氰菊酯均价/万元/吨,28.00,25.20,25.20,25.20,25.20,苯氧菌酯均价/万元/吨,42.00,42.00,42.00,42.00,42.00,精喹禾灵均价/万元/吨,18.00,18.00,18.00,18.00,18.00,吡虫啉均价/万元/吨,12.00,1

6、1.64,11.64,11.64,11.64,啶虫脒均价/万元/吨,13.00,13.00,13.00,13.00,13.00,杀虫单价格上涨幅度,-7.36%,-14.39%,6.10%,0.00%,8.00%,0.00%,-3.00%,-2.00%,杀虫双价格上涨幅度,-9.63%,-8.35%,-3.00%,8.00%,0.00%,-2.00%,-2.00%,草甘膦价格上涨幅度,#DIV/0!,-9.25%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,其他产品价格上涨幅度,4.43%,6.31%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,高效氟氯氰菊酯价

7、格上涨幅度,-10.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,苯氧菌酯价格上涨幅度,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,精喹禾灵价格上涨幅度,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,吡虫啉价格上涨幅度,-3.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,啶虫脒价格上涨幅度,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,分产品产销量,杀虫单销量/吨,4,223.00,4503.00 ,5565.00 ,5,500.00,5,800.00,6,000.00,6,000.00,6,000.00,杀虫双销量/吨,5,058.00,4,591.00,5,673.00,5,500.0

8、0,5,800.00,6,000.00,6,000.00,6,000.00,草甘膦销量/吨,0.00,1,500.00,3,800.00,4,000.00,4,500.00,4,800.00,5,000.00,5,000.00,其他产品销售量/吨,120.00,160.00,180.00,180.00,200.00,200.00,200.00,220.00,高效氟氯氰菊酯销量/吨,20.00,95.00,140.00,150.00,150.00,苯氧菌酯销量/吨,200.00,350.00,400.00,450.00,500.00,精喹禾灵销量/吨,120.00,350.00,400.00,4

9、50.00,500.00,吡虫啉销量/吨,80.00,180.00,210.00,240.00,300.00,啶虫脒销量/吨,80.00,180.00,210.00,240.00,300.00,杀虫单销量增长率,6.63%,23.58%,-1.17%,5.45%,3.45%,0.00%,0.00%,杀虫双销量增长率,-9.23%,23.57%,-3.05%,5.45%,3.45%,0.00%,0.00%,草甘膦销量增长率,#DIV/0!,153.33%,5.26%,12.50%,6.67%,4.17%,0.00%,其他产品销售量增长率,33.33%,12.50%,0.00%,11.11%,0.

10、00%,0.00%,10.00%,高效氟氯氰菊酯销量增长率,#DIV/0!,375.00%,47.37%,7.14%,0.00%,苯氧菌酯销量增长率,#DIV/0!,75.00%,14.29%,12.50%,11.11%,精喹禾灵销量增长率,#DIV/0!,191.67%,14.29%,12.50%,11.11%,吡虫啉销量增长率,#DIV/0!,125.00%,16.67%,14.29%,25.00%,啶虫脒销量增长率,#DIV/0!,125.00%,16.67%,14.29%,25.00%,主要产品收入合计（万元）,20,187.00,25,110.00,35,523.00,48,674.

11、56,67,903.27,74,218.43,78,350.45,83,526.44,其它产品收入（万元）,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,0.00,其它产品占主营收入比例,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,主营业务收入（万元）,20,187,25,110,35,523,48,675,67,903,74,218,78,350,83,526,调整比例,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,0.00%,主营业务收入（万元） 调整后,20,187,25,1

12、10,35,523,48,675,67,903,74,218,78,350,83,526,主营收入增长率%,24.4%,41.5%,37.0%,39.5%,9.3%,5.6%,6.6%,主营业务成本预测,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,分产品成本,主营业务成本,13,847.00,18,631.00,27,630.00,36,864.23,49,023.99,51,090.00,52,875.60,56,013.02,主营业务成本增长率,35.93%,34.55%,48.30%,33.42%,32.99%,4.21%,3.50%,33.

13、42%,分原料价格,氯丙烯均价,13,000.00,13,390.00,13,390.00,13,122.20,13,122.20,12,859.76,二甲胺（40%）均价,20,000.00,20,600.00,20,600.00,20,600.00,20,188.00,19,986.12,大苏打（98%）均价,19,000.00,19,380.00,19,380.00,19,380.00,19,186.20,18,802.48,烧碱均价,1,911.00,2,320.00,2,620.00,2,751.00,2,751.00,2,751.00,2,695.98,2,642.06,盐酸均价,

14、516.00,611.00,644.00,663.32,663.32,663.32,656.69,650.12,液氯均价,1,960.00,2,080.00,2,033.00,2,114.32,2,114.32,2,114.32,2,050.89,2,030.38,原料价格指数,30,389.10,31,265.59,31,265.59,31,078.13,30,694.07,30,229.62,分原料价格涨幅,氯丙烯涨幅,3.00%,0.00%,-2.00%,0.00%,-2.00%,二甲胺（40%）涨幅,3.00%,0.00%,0.00%,-2.00%,-1.00%,大苏打（98%）涨幅,

15、2.00%,0.00%,0.00%,-1.00%,-2.00%,烧碱涨幅,21.40%,12.93%,5.00%,0.00%,0.00%,-2.00%,-2.00%,盐酸涨幅,18.41%,5.40%,3.00%,0.00%,0.00%,-1.00%,-1.00%,液氯涨幅,6.12%,-2.26%,4.00%,0.00%,0.00%,-3.00%,-1.00%,原料价格指数涨幅,#DIV/0!,#DIV/0!,2.88%,0.00%,-0.60%,-1.24%,-1.51%,分原料消耗量增幅,原料消耗量指数增幅,#DIV/0!,131.00%,17.75%,12.50%,14.38%,新增产

16、品产量,0.00,0.00,500.00,1,155.00,1,360.00,1,530.00,1,750.00,新增产品产量增长率,#DIV/0!,#DIV/0!,131.00%,17.75%,12.50%,14.38%,分结构成本,固定资产折旧,660.00,900.00,2,800.00,4,500.00,4,600.00,4,600.00,4,800.00,煤与电成本,530.00,660.00,800.00,1,500.00,1,600.00,1,600.00,1,700.00,人工成本,1,200.00,2,000.00,2,500.00,4,000.00,4,500.00,4,5

17、00.00,5,000.00,原料等成本,16,241.00,24,070.00,30,764.23,39,023.99,40,390.00,42,175.60,44,513.02,主营业务利润,6340.00 ,6479.00 ,7893.00 ,11810.33 ,18879.28 ,23128.43 ,25474.85 ,27513.41 ,主营业务利润增长率,2.19%,21.82%,49.63%,59.85%,22.51%,10.15%,8.00%,主营业务毛利率,31.41%,25.80%,22.22%,24.26%,27.80%,31.16%,32.51%,32.94%,子公司收

18、入预测,并表子公司,股权比例,2003,2004,2005,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,2010E,子公司利润预测,并表子公司,股权比例,2002,2003,2004,2005E,2006E,2007E,2008E,2009E,合计,少数股东权益,调整后少数股东权益,苯氧菌酯-为自筹资金国债贴息项目，截止2005A已累计投资9188万元，预计2006年二季度达产，产能500吨/年。该项目采用手性试剂催化定向合成技术和非光照合成方法，合成采用邻甲基苯甲酸工艺合成路线.,主要用于小麦、油菜、玉米、大豆、水稻、棉花、苹果、梨、马铃薯、南瓜、葡萄等作物，防治黑腥病、霉霜病、白粉病、锈病、颖枯病、稻瘟病、叶班病、疫病等几乎所有的真菌病害。,据农业部统计，我国16类作物杀菌剂每年总用量约5.5万吨，总用药成本约35亿，进口产品使用率20%以上。,甲氧基丙烯酸酯类化合物具有替代现有产品的所有优势，是防治真菌引起病害的理想药剂。国际上最早开发两个品种(含苯氧菌酯