贝恩咨询分析方法PenetrationCurve课件

1、Author: Nancy GreenePenetration Curve (S-Curve)March 1998Copyright 1998 Bain & Company, Inc. 1第1页，共15页。Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMethodologyCopyright 1998 Bain & Company, Inc. 2第2页，共15页。 Products can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases:early adoption/t

2、rialmass adoptionsaturation/substitutiondeclineThe product life-cycle generates a series of market penetration rates that tend to follow a specific pattern, called an S-curve (or penetration curve)Given the pattern of penetration curves over time, and given that this relationship holds to some exten

3、t in almost every case, penetration curves can be a powerful tool in predicting the growth of new productsWhat is a Penetration Curve? (S-Curve)3第3页，共15页。Product Life-Cycle TimeVolumeProducts can be thought of as following a life-cycle that has several distinct phases.Early adoption/trialMass adopti

4、onSaturation/substitutionDeclineDriven by people who always adopt new things early and fuel the products initial growthThe product becomes accepted by the general market; characterized by rapid product growthThe product has either saturated the market, or is already being substituted for by another

5、product that is in an earlier phase of the product life cycleThe decline of the product, driven by complete substitution for or replacement with another product4第4页，共15页。Characteristics of Penetration Curves Penetration can occur at the expense of an existing product, or it can drive new markets to

6、growSeveral factors will influence the end state, or saturation point, of a product:duration/speed of product life-cyclecompetitive forcesinnovationculture/societyWhen considering penetration curves, there are a few characteristics to keep in mind:5第5页，共15页。Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleMetho

7、dology6第6页，共15页。Applications of Penetration Curves Validating/determining market growth for a new or established productShowing precedents for success of a product through existing penetration curvesPredicting the saturation level for a productDetermining market entry strategy or timing, given the p

8、redicted penetration of a productDetermining product management or phase-out, given the speed of new products adoptionPenetration curves can be useful in addressing a series of different strategic questions which arise when new products enter a market.7第7页，共15页。Agenda ConceptApplicationCase exampleM

9、ethodology8第8页，共15页。 In 1994, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) issued a statement confirming that most ulcers are strongly associated with the presence of a bacteria (H. Pylori). While previously, doctors had been advised to treat ulcer symptoms with anti-secretory drugs, NIH now recommends t

10、hat ulcer patients with H. Pylori infections also be treated with antibiotics. The new treatment cures not only ulcer symptoms, but the underlying cause of the disease.In 1997, a new device was granted a patent by the U.S. Patent Office which will test human breath for the presence of H. Pyloria blo

11、od test for H. Pylori is already on the marketdoctors may also test for H. Pylori using tissue samples obtained through endoscopy, a relatively invasive and painful medical procedureOur client is considering buying the patent and believes that the breath test technology holds significant advantages

12、over both blood tests and endoscopyless invasive than endoscopymore accurate than blood testsSituation:How large is the market for H. Pylori tests over time?Key Question:A Bain case team used penetration curve analysis to examine how quickly medical practices change.Disguised Case Situation (1 of 2)

13、9第9页，共15页。 A search of the existing literature revealed that in 1995, only 5% of doctors were testing patients suspected of having an ulcer for H. Pyloriin 1991, the figure was close to 1%In order to determine how quickly the NIH report would impact doctors behavior, our case team surveyed doctors i

14、n the fall of 1997:60% said they were testing their suspected ulcer patients for H. Pylori15% said they treated all suspected ulcer patients with a course of antibiotics - without first testing for H. Pylorithe team agreed that this represented a “ceiling” on testing: 15% of doctors would always tre

15、at H. Pylori without testing for itResearch:Historic penetration:1991 = 1%1995 = 5%1997 = 60%Saturation point = 85%Penetration Curve Data:Combining secondary research with surveys, the team obtained a few historic penetration points, as well as the projected saturation point.Disguised Case Situation

16、 (2 of 2)10第10页，共15页。H. Pylori Testing Market = data point= predicted penetration curve (based on regression)Saturation point = 85%Penetration curve analysis smoothed the known data points into an S-curve that showed an aggressive schedule for the adoption of H. Pylori tests.11第11页，共15页。Agenda Conce

17、ptApplicationCase exampleMethodology12第12页，共15页。 Gather historic data and set up spreadsheetPick saturation pointthis should be the logical ceiling on a products penetration (i.e. not every home will have a computer, even in the most optimistic of scenarios)saturation point = 100% in this exampleCal

18、culate penetration ratio(historic percent) / (saturation point - historic percent)198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration198919901991199225.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.740Penetration RatioMethodology (1 of 3)13第13页，共15页。 198919901991199225.0%29.0%

19、36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.740Penetration Ratio7.5957.5967.5977.597ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetration ratio)198919901991199219931994etc.25.0%29.0%36.3%42.5%YearsHistoric Penetration0.3330.4080.5710.740Penetration Ratio7.5957.5967.5967.5977.5977.598etc.ln(years)(1.099)(0.895)(0.561)(0.301)ln(penetration ratio)Predicted Penetration Ratio0.9661.268etc.Take the natural log of the years and the penetration ratioRegress the log of years vs. the log of the penetration ratioUse results to calculate predicted penetration ratiouse formula for a line, and take