未来10年全球投资主题路线图

1、SIGNATURE#transatlantic #investmentsciencesSpecial Report | Research2 March 2021Edition 2: 150 Trends2030 Thematic Roadmap Build Forward BetterWe update our 2030 Thematic Roadmap to illustrate how we see our 150 trends being impacted in the post-COVID world. Our analysis suggests trends will experie

2、nce different market pathways than previously expected, with Build Forward Better highlighting the importance of sustainability, stimulus and social inclusion.Equity Research Sustainable & Thematic InvestingHiral PatelLaia Marin i Sola+44 (0)20 3134 1618+44 (0)20 3134 2531 HYPERLINK mailto:hiral.pat

3、el hiral.patel HYPERLINK mailto:laia.marin laia.marinBarclays, UKBarclays, UKAnushka Challawala+44 (0)20 3134 2326 HYPERLINK mailto:anushka.challawala anushka.challawala Barclays, UKKatherine Ogundiya+44 (0)20 3134 1391 HYPERLINK mailto:katherine.a.ogundiya katherine.a.ogundiya Barclays, UKFor the f

4、ull list of authors, see page 2.Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Inve

5、stors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA.This is a Special Report that is

6、not an equity or a debt research report under U.S. FINRA Rules 2241-2242.FOR ANALYST CERTIFICATION(S) PLEASE SEE PAGE 40.FOR IMPORTANT FIXED INCOME RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 40.FOR IMPORTANT EQUITY RESEARCH DISCLOSURES, PLEASE SEE PAGE 41.CONTRIBUTING AUTHORSSustainable & Thematic Invest

7、ingHiral Patel+44 (0)20 3134 1618 HYPERLINK mailto:hiral.patel hiral.patel Barclays, UKSustainable & Thematic InvestingAnushka Challawala+44 (0)20 3134 2326 HYPERLINK mailto:anushka.challawala anushka.challawala Barclays, UKSustainable & Thematic InvestingKatherine Ogundiya+44 (0)20 3134 1391 HYPERL

8、INK mailto:katherine.a.ogundiya katherine.a.ogundiya Barclays, UKSustainable & Thematic InvestingLaia Marin i Sola+ 44 (0)20 3134 2531 HYPERLINK mailto:laia.marin laia.marin Barclays, UKInvestment Sciences Ryan Preclaw+1 212 412 2249 HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.preclaw ryan.preclaw BCI, USInvestment Scien

9、ces Vincenzo Pota+44 (0)20 3134 2097 HYPERLINK mailto:vincenzo.pota vincenzo.pota Barclays, UKInvestment Sciences Chris Stevens+44 (0)20 3555 1239 HYPERLINK mailto:chris.r.stevens chris.r.stevens Barclays, UKInvestment Sciences Ben McSkelly, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 3606 HYPERLINK mailto:ben.mcskelly ben.m

10、cskelly Barclays, UKData Sciences Liujia Hu*+1 212 526 7483 HYPERLINK mailto:liujia.hu liujia.hu BCI, US*This author is a member of the Fixed Income, Currencies and Commodities Research department and is not an equity or debt research analyst.CONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 HYPER

11、LINK l _bookmark1 EDITION 2 BUILD FORWARD BETTER 6 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Summary of additions, removals and material changes 9 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Technology & Innovation 10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Consumer, Food & Retail 12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Industrials, Manufacturing & Transportation 14 HY

12、PERLINK l _bookmark6 Health & Modern Science 16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Energy & Environment 18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Society & Culture 20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 12 NEW TRENDS 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Pet Economy 22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 Electronic Waste 23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Hygiene & Sani

13、tation 24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Extreme Weather 25 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Pandemic Response Tech 26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Green Finance 27 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Logistics & Fulfilment 28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Modern Vaccines 29 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Hyperscale Data Infrastructure 30 HYPER

14、LINK l _bookmark19 Digital Fitness 31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Synthetic Biology 32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Telehealth 33 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 DATA & INVESTMENT SCIENCES 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Natural language processing: indicator of trend momentum 34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Top 10 trends: ga

15、ining & losing momentum 35 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Frequency of concurrent trends within corporate discussion 38EXECUTIVE SUMMARYWe update our 2030 Thematic Roadmap (Edition 2) to illustrate how we see our 150 trends being impacted in the post- COVID world Figure 1. Our analysis suggests trends will

16、 experience different market pathways than previously expected, with the majority likely to be impacted by additional factors in light of the Build Forward Better mantra (e.g. sustainability, stimulus, social inclusion). Within our list of 150 trends, we add 12 new trends (including Electronic Waste

17、, Pet Economy, Hygiene & Sanitation, Extreme Weather, Pandemic Response Tech, Modern Vaccines, Logistics & Fulfilment, Synthetic Biology, Green Finance). Relative to our methodology (impact vs. likelihood), we also revise the positioning of existing trends, where we continue to leverage the work of

18、our Research Data Science team and our natural language processing capabilities. Across our six thematic paradigms, trends within Energy & Environment will remain dominant this year ahead of COP26. However, we believe trends within Social & Culture, specifically those relating to societal inclusion,

19、 have the potential to provide an additional point of differentiation for investors.2030 Thematic Roadmap What is it? Our roadmap outlines 150 trends across six paradigms that we believe will dominate our discussions with investors over the next decade. Leveraging the expertise of our sector analyst

20、s and our Research Data Science platform, we consider the trends that could potentially impact investment decisions as the portfolio of the future is constructed. We launched Edition 1 in February 2020 ( HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2506392 link), followed by our interim COVID anal

21、ysis in May 2020 ( HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2529105 link).Edition 2 Build Forward Better: We believe the pandemic will provide an opportunity for society to Build Forward Better, with trends more likely to be influenced by additional factors (social inclusion, sustainability, p

22、ost pandemic behaviour and stimulus packages) relative to our methodology. While we acknowledge the pandemic is not over, we do believe visibility into the post-COVID world is improving as vaccine rollout plans commence around the world.12 new trends: We add 12 trends to the roadmap, including trend

23、s that we believe will benefit from long-term changes in consumer behaviour (e.g. Pet Economy, Hygiene & Sanitation, Digital Fitness and Logistics & Fulfilment). We also see governments having to respond to the risk of future pandemics (e.g. Pandemic Response Tech, Telehealth and Modern Vaccines). R

24、elative to Edition 1, we have seen trends relating to broader environmental challenges grow (e.g. Extreme Weather, Electronic Waste, Synthetic Biology, Hyperscale Data Infrastructure), in addition to new financial drivers (e.g. Green Finance).Natural language processing as an indicator of changing t

25、rend momentum: To better understand how our 150 trends are being discussed by corporates, our algorithm scans transcripts to identify the trends that are gaining or losing momentum. We also consider the frequency of concurrent trends within corporate discussion, which is a key input for our roadmap

26、plotting and analysis of the emerging trends of tomorrow.Changes to existing trends: We promote 12 trends and demote two trends, defining a material move as a trend that has moved from one quadrant of the roadmap to another relative to Edition 1. Promotions include trends that benefit from the long-

27、term reconfiguration of supply chains (e.g. Localised Manufacturing & Micro-Factories, Service & Delivery Robots), new consumption models (e.g. Food-as-a-Service, Direct-to-Consumer) and the broader shift in consumer behaviour (e.g. Wellness Economy, Biohacking). We also highlight the growing impact

28、 broader societal trends may have across all thematic paradigms (e.g. Diversity & Inclusion, Societal Inequality). We demote Digital Detox and Rental & Sharing Economy as we see underlying market opportunities being affected by the pandemic.Trends relating to social inclusion will be a key point of

29、thematic differentiation: Products or services that promote social inclusion remain underinvested, in our view, including healthcare and education. Barriers to entry are likely to become more attractive as governments look to the private sector to help improve accessibility and price transparency.Wh

30、y read this report?Given the growing relevance of ESG and Thematic Investing, we see the 2030 Thematic Roadmap providing our client base with a starting point for debate when investing for the next decade. Leveraging the expertise of our sector analysts and our Research Data Science platform, we ana

31、lyse the 150 trends that could potentially impact investment decisions.Barclays | Sustainable & Thematic InvestingFIGURE 12030 Thematic Roadmap (Edition 2)Source: Barclays ResearchEDITION 2 BUILD FORWARD BETTERGiven the ongoing rise in ESG and Thematic Investing, we launched the 2030 Thematic Roadma

32、p in February 2020 ( HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2506392 link) to provide a framework for investors to explore the possible trends that could fundamentally disrupt society by 2030. The pandemic led us to revisit the roadmap in May 2020 ( HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubI

33、D=FC2529105 link), where we outlined which trends would likely be accelerated by COVID-19 and the 100 companies likely to benefit across our research coverage.With society now having a better understanding of the virus, we see this as an opportune time to update our 2030 Thematic Roadmap analysis. W

34、hile we acknowledge the pandemic is not over, we do believe visibility into the post-COVID world is improving as vaccine rollout plans commence around the world. Furthermore, we believe there are additional 2021 catalysts that have the potential to influence the long-term profile of our 150 trends,

35、including COP26 and the start of the Biden Administration in the US.Thus, Edition 2 of the 2030 Thematic Roadmap illustrates our latest view on the underlying 150 trends. This includes the addition of new trends and the removal of existing trends we believe are no longer relevant relative to our met

36、hodology. We also consider how future pathways of each trend could be impacted by a wider set of factors if society were to endorse a Build Forward Better mantra, which in our view could result in trends being redirected or reversed in the near term to ensure their long-term trajectory remains posit

37、ive. This leads us to elevate 12 of the existing trends in terms of significance and to reduce the expected impact of 2.Build Forward BetterCOVID-19 will clearly be a defining event for 2020-30 as an investment decade. We have seen the Build Forward Better mantra being used increasingly across the i

38、nvestment community when assessing the resilience of recovery plans. Encouragingly, sustainability has been a key factor within such discussions, with many public companies announcing plans centred on a green recovery. While we agree that the pandemic provides a powerful opportunity to recover bette

39、r, we also believe it provides an additional opportunity to reconsider the future course of emerging trends.Emerging trends may need to be redirected or reversedThe UNs Shaping the Trends of Our Time report in September 2020 considers the nature of post-COVID recovery and argues that it must not be

40、a recovery back to what we had before. The pandemic provides an opportunity for society to reorient trends towards more sustainable pathways, which in our view suggests many of the emerging trends within our 2030 Thematic Roadmap may need to consider additional factors in the near term to successful

41、ly deliver meaningful impact in the long term.For example, while we view the Rental & Sharing Economy as a clear long-term investment trend, in light of the pandemic will the underlying market opportunities within this need to pivot their business models to consider how hygiene may impact consumer b

42、ehaviour going forward? Another example is our view on Digital Detox and the need for the technology industry to better consider screen time and overall digital wellbeing. Our reliance on digital has naturally increased during the ongoing lockdowns, and thus our long-term view on Digital Detox will

43、likely decelerate relative to our prior expectation. However, we would argue there is potential for companies to adapt by considering how to encourage physical activity within their existing offering e.g. fitness streaming on social media platforms.Trends will need to consider additional market fact

44、orsWe continue to structure our 2030 Thematic Roadmap based on two chart parameters. We selected Likelihood and Impact as our respective horizontal and vertical axes, and thus the basis of our mapping. That is, to what extent do we believe these 150 trends will impact society, given some may be infl

45、uenced by external factors such as regulation, infrastructure, consumer adoption and pricing. We continue to take input from our Research Data Science team to better understand the extent to which such trends are on the corporate radar. The use of a hierarchical clustering algorithm allows us to con

46、sider the frequency of discussion and sector breadth using corporate transcripts.Our view on Build Forward Better suggests trends may need to consider additional market factors when assessing potential Likelihood and Impact Figure 2. We highlight four areas which in our view will influence the Build

47、 Forward Better mantra:Social inclusion: The pandemic has further exposed the level of social inequalities and increased awareness of the digital divide. We see sectors of growing socio-economic significance having to respond, with an accelerated shift towards digital business models attempting to i

48、mprove accessibility and price transparency e.g. Education Technology, Remote Patient Monitoring.Sustainability: Environmental stewardship leading to a better appreciation of natural capital e.g. Biodiversity Loss, Deforestation, Extreme Weather, AgriTech, Ocean Economy.Post pandemic behaviour: Cons

49、umers taking better control of their health and personal safety will impact the future of hospitality, retail and travel e.g. Rental & Sharing Economy, Hygiene & Sanitation, Digital Fitness and Pet Economy. Governments will also look to respond as public health becomes a key investment areae.g. Pand

50、emic Response Tech, Modern Vaccines, Telehealth.Stimulus packages: Governments will be keen to future-proof economies and incentivise green recovery plans e.g. Smart Cities, Renewable Energy, Electric Transportation. Infrastructure will likely remain a key beneficiary, with construction, transport,

51、real estate, capital goods and energy likely to remain well positioned.FIGURE 2Roadmap parameters Build Forward Better will influence Impact and LikelihoodSource: Barclays ResearchSocial inclusion, natural capital, hygiene and beyond net zeroMany of our latest investment themes are aligned with the

52、Build Forward Better mantra:Social inclusion: HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2561680 Active Ageing: Embracing Longevity (17 November 2020): The COVID-19 pandemic has brought generational inequalities into sharp focus, with senior populations disproportionately impacted. While global

53、ageing remains an ongoing demographic shift, we argue that society is ill-prepared for the next phase of this transition, which includes both an acceleration in population ageing and a shrinking population. We believe the longevity narrative should centre around healthy and active ageing, and, with

54、implications for people of all ages, we consider how additional longevity may be accompanied by extended periods of social engagement and productivity. We expect bold policy measures to be pivotal, and see emerging technology playing a large role (e.g. longevity tech, remote patient monitoring, soci

55、al care).Sustainability: HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2549850 Biodiversity: Investing in Nature (23 September 2020): The world is highly dependent on biodiversity, extracting $125tn in benefits from our ecosystems each year, according to the OECD. Abundant biodiversity is necessary

56、 for many components of life, including the provision of food and medicines. Yet, with biodiversity in decline, society has had to reconsider traditional land economics and start to factor in the burgeoning concept of natural capital. In this report we focus on biodiversity on land, the commodities

57、most associated with biodiversity loss (palm, soy, cattle and timber) and how companies can adapt to this emerging theme. We see investments in nature benefiting, including reforestation, regenerative agriculture, supply chain monitoring and product certifications.Post pandemic behaviour: HYPERLINK

58、/go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2565064 Future of Cleaning: Seeing is Believing (08 December 2020): Pre-pandemic, sanitisation/cleaning was mostly taken for granted, but in a post pandemic world we believe consumers and employees will demand that places not only be clean but also show clean. We

59、, like others, believe that these raised expectations around hygiene will be long-lasting and transformative for the industry. Following a Barclays Survey of cleaning product manufacturers and service providers, as well as the customers they serve, we think the total addressable market for instituti

60、onal cleaning is poised to expand. Our findings indicate that restaurants, hotels, casinos, cruises and airlines (as well as many others) are all adopting cleaning protocols with great vigour.Post pandemic behaviour: HYPERLINK /go/publications/link?contentPubID=FC2564441 Future of Real Estate: WFH -