商业地产发展白皮书

1、2020Z2021TMT2021202120211-525.7%4.3%1.1-56.1%8.8%11.2%25%2016-20211-5办公楼占比商业营业用房占比15.4%14.2%11.8%13.4%10.0% 9.2%11.5%8.5%9.6%8.3%8.0%7.6%6.9% 6.9%7.0%5.9%5.3%6.4% 6.2%4.2%5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8%3.4%2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.2% 1.9%1.5%开发投资额新开工面积销售面积20%15%10%5%0%CREIS120211-567996.1%+11.4

2、12.6%20201-514.0%20211-5689311.2%9.2%201620211-520211-538028.8%20201-57.2%5.7%1.5 120211-56.1%7.7%8.6%2000015000元亿 100002010-20211-5商业营业用房开发投资额(左)同比（右）14346 1460715838 156401417713226 1307611945931273706.1%5599459140%30%20%10%50000%-10%02010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 21:1-5-2

3、0%CREIS 20211-545916.1%20191.3%20211-415%33.6%1-450%20%2010-20211-530000250002000015000100005000025902250482253020671220072231720484 200661746118936180125160-7.7%20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 2021:1550%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%CREIS 20211-551607.7%201922.6%()20211-5 30%227%158.1%2010-202

4、11-5140001200010000800060004000200001283811971108121017384699075925292896921787877598.2%278920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 2021:1540%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%CREIS 20211-527898.2%201915.3%()90.2%42.4%14.1% 9.8% 9.1%21-56.2%20.2%10.5%1000080006000亿元4000200002010-20211-5办公楼开发投资额（左）同比（右）6210653

5、367615641599661636494465233676.2%2544180722082010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 21:1-550%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%CREIS 2010202020205.4%20192.620211-522086.2%20211-437.3%16.0%20211-473.6123.3%30.7%22.4%16.2%2010-20211-58000700060005000400030002000100006887734970846569598664156140660

6、46049536136781733-20.2%20102011201220132014201520162017201820192020 2021:1550%40%30%20%10%0%-10%-20%-30%CREIS 20211-5173320.2%201929.3%()20211-589.8%81.1% 71.8%34.3 339.3%241.566.9%475643633826372333342883291210.5%22542498188220081013500040003000200010002010-20211-540%30%20%10%0%-10%0201020112012201

7、32014201520162017201820192020 2021:15-20%CREIS 20211-5101310.5%()201919.0%10068.6% 6.3% 21.3% 7.5%40-6048.2%35.7%2.202133D 202112.0218DD20211-66%2%28%64%CREIS股权交易资产交易其他法拍202190CREIS157063.7%27.7%3202127.3511502020202020213.MALL0.31%0.10%TMT12021202010024.90/0.24%100 MALL/26.840.31%20212021MALL201968

8、.7%56.8%2019CREIS20202592021600APP随着国民经济持续稳定恢复，促进消费的政策不断发力，居民消费需求稳步释放，商业地产市场稳定恢复。从整个商业地产市场发展趋势看，新技术与新消费理念引领商业地产市场变革的时代已经形成。预计下半年，随着消费市场活力持续恢复，我国重点城市商铺租金将逐渐恢复至疫情前的水平，同时实体商业的智慧运营与综合服务水平也将不断提升。20.10%1520214.75/0.10%45.0%50.0%5.0%2020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q120

9、20Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q12020Q22020Q32020Q42021Q120212020-202125%20%15%10%5%0%北京上海广州深圳苏州郑州杭州西安南京CREISCREIS202112%9%19.1%2.410%10%102020 4.3% 3.2%6.0%8.8%39.5%12.3%11.9%14.0%科技/媒体/通信（TMT）银行/保险/证券/其他金融行业律所/教育/

10、专业服务业其他房地产零售制造业医疗CREIS60%20202020TMT16.9%10%2020/TMT /44%46%42%39%31%32%31%21%16%15%12%16%16%12%13%9%9%6%10%8%12%50%40%30%20%10%0%CREIS 2020TMT/45%TMT40%2021TMT4.9.0%2016-20216300 商办用地推出规划建筑面积商办用地成交规划建筑面积推出年度月均成交年度月均1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6

11、7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9101112 1 2 3 4 5 6201620172018201920202021700060005000万 4000平米方 3000200010000CREIS3001-62021300987015.3%300 858710.8%20211-6300 2516/9.0%6.9%20200.673001772130473.6%46826.4%20201.7200002016-20216成交规划建筑面积（左）同比（右）一线城市二线城市三四线城市100%15000万平 10000方米500050%0%-50%201620172018201

12、9202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-60-100%CREIS180002016-20216成交楼面均价（左）同比（右）一线城市二线城市三四线城市40%1500012000/元平 9000方米 6000300020%0%-20%2016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-62016201720182019202021:1-60-40%CREIS20211-6326 46.4%10330/16.2%0.3%20211-63961 3.7%2795/18.

13、3%6.7%3.1 20211-6300430012.4%1665/15.1%10.6%5.01.202011%42%GDP54.8GDP 54%2010-202020211-6300一线城市二线城市 二线城市广州184.22.1上海122.81.4北京10.10.1深圳9.00.1湖州274.23.2%杭州593.86.9%嘉兴200.82.3%西安350.94.1%泰州183.92.1%成都349.14.1%南通152.91.8%济南300.63.5%潍坊140.21.6%重庆192.22.2%盐城134.21.6%沈阳187.42.2%遵义133.51.6%武汉186.52.2%佛山萍乡

14、128.3120.01.5%1.4%50%46%苏州郑州176.1164.72.1%1.9%菏泽101.91.2%长沙155.71.8%其他2729.731.8%贵阳151.81.8%宁波143.71.7%南京120.01.4%青岛109.41.3%其他779.19.1%CREIS20211-646%50%3006.9%593.76 3.2%2.3%202010613202052020332220209520201-932./20217010TOD+202113 2+1 4911 502025 15020213085202092021 20213.REITs1REITsREITs 42018REITsREITs4302020REITsREITs720212REITsREITs REITs992REITs20211-642%REITs REITs68单位：亿元26162020-20216REITs9.2%1389.2%36.1%16.9%4.2%6.8%17.7%CNABS2020-20216REITs383.4520211-670.3642%REITsREITs232.3960.6%2020-20216REITs二线城市45%一线城市55%CNABSREITsREITs232020-20216REITs74