Integrate Statistical System to Deepen Trade Analysis

1、Jingping LiCenter for Applied Statistics, School of Statistics, RUCjpli33Nov. 25, 2021Integrate Statistical System toDeepen Trade Analysis统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICS2022/7/2501统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSBackgrounds02Integration Analysis03Further Work2022/7/252统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSPart 1BackgroundWhat d

2、o we need for trade statisticsStatus quo of trade statistics and enterprise statistics in ChinaHow to integrate the two systems2022/7/253统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSRequirements for Trade Statistics in the New EraGuidelines on Promoting the Innovative Development of Foreign Trade GBF 2020 No.40Focusing

3、on the construction of a new development pattern that domestic circulation is the main body and domestic and international double circulation promote mutually, we should accelerate the “five optimizations of international market layout, domestic regional layout, business entities, commodity structur

4、e and trade mode, and the three constructions“, i.e., foreign trade transformation and upgrading base, trade promotion platform, and international marketing system. Cultivate new advantages in participating in international cooperation and competition under the new situation, and achieve innovative

5、development of foreign trade.Cultivate leading enterprises with global competitivenessEnhance the trade competitiveness of SMEs2022/7/254统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSRequirements for Trade Statistics in the New EraGuidelines on Accelerating the Development of New Forms and Models of Foreign TradeGBF 2021

6、 No.24By 2025, the institutional mechanisms and policy systems for the development of new formats and new models of foreign trade will be improved, the business environment will be optimized, a number of leading enterprises and industrial clusters with international competitiveness will be strengthe

7、ned, the level of the industrial value chain will be upgraded, and the leading role of foreign trade and the national economy is further enhanced.Promote the data docking among commerce, customs, taxation, market supervision, postal and other departments to strengthen the supervision of tax evasion,

8、 counterfeit and inferior transactions, and false transactions besides streamlining services. Improve the foreign trade statistical system of new business formats and new models.（MOFCOM takes the lead，GACC, SATC, SAMR, NBS, CSPB cooperate according to their own responsibilities）2022/7/255统计学院SCHOOL

9、OF STATISTICSCustoms StatisticsCustoms Declarationdomestic consignee/consignor, entry/exit customs, import/export date, overseas consignee/consignor, mode of transport, name od means of transportations, consuming and using unit/producing and sale unit, mode of supervision, trading country(region), c

10、ountry(region) of departure/arrival, port of entry/departure, transaction method, freight, premium, miscellaneous charges, commodity name, specification and model, quantity and unit, unit price, total price, currency system, country(region) of origin, final destination country(region), domestic dest

11、ination/domestic source of goods, etc.2022/7/256统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSEnterprise StatisticsIndustrial Enterprises Statistics Wholesale and Retail Enterprises StatisticsScope industrial legal entities above designated scale (annual revenue of 20 million RMB and above)Indicatorsbasic information, em

12、ployees, financial status, production and operation, research and development activities and innovation, informatization and e-commerce, etc.export delivery valueScope wholesale and retail legal entities above designated scale (wholesale enterprises: annual revenue of 20 million RMB and above; retai

13、l enterprises: annual revenue of 5 million RMB and above)Indicatorsbasic information, financial status, and operating conditionscommodity purchase value - importscommodity sales value - exports2022/7/257统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSIndustrial Statistics export only, no import informationexport informatio

14、n includes commodity information only, nothing about trading counterpartiesWholesale and Retail Trade Statisticstotal imports or exports only, no product classification informationno information about consume and use unit/produce and sale unit of the goodsno information on trading counterpartiesCust

15、oms Statisticsonly the name of the enterprise, no further information such as type, production and financial statistics, etc.The Two Statistical Systems are Independent of Each Other2022/7/258Information of traders and corresponding transactions are separated.The analysis is restricted. It is diffic

16、ult to connect foreign trade analysis with enterprise development analysis. It is not conductive to analyze the structural characteristics of foreign trade and it is also not conductive to formulate and implement precise foreign trade policies.Are the leading foreign trade enterprises sustainable ?W

17、hich enterprises highly depend on foreign trade?Which enterprises foreign trade is greatly affected by emergencies?Has the foreign trade policy achieved the expected effect?统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSDisadvantages of the Independence2022/7/259统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSThe Necessity of Integration of the

18、Two SystemsMeet the new trends in world trade developmentMeet and lead the requirements of the innovative development of new foreign tradeMeet the need to improve the current statistical work2022/7/2510International trade in goods - trade by enterprise characteristics (TEC)The main objective of the

19、(TEC)is to bridge two major statistical domains which have traditionally been compiled and used separately, business statistics and international trade in goods statistics (ITGS). Specifically, this new domain was created to answer questions such as:What kind of businesses are behind the trade flows

20、 of goods?What is the contribution of a particular activity sector to trade?What is the share of small and medium-sized enterprises to total trade?What is the share of enterprises that trade with a certain partner country and the amount of trade value they account for?The trade in goods between coun

21、tries is broken down byeconomic activity,size-class of enterprises,trade concentration,geographical diversificationandproducts traded.Both the export and import values and the number of exporting and importing enterprises are available for 26 OECD and 6 non-OECD countries: including 28 EU member sta

22、tes plus Canada, Norway, Israel, Turkey and the United States.统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSInternational Experience Based on Corporate Foreign Trade Statistics: OECD and EU2022/7/2511/sdd/its/trade-by-enterprise-characteristics.htmhttps:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/ext_tec_sims.htm#stat_pres1

23、6287817962792022/7/2512统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSExample: TEC Application in AustraliaData Source：http:/www.statistik.at/web_en/statistics/Economy/foreign_trade/tec_trade_by_enterprise_characteristics/index.htmlLongitudinal Firm Trade Transactions Database(LFTTD) 19922018TheLongitudinal Firm Trade Tra

24、nsactions Database (LFTTD)links individualtrade transactionsto the U.S. firms that make them. That is, it links export transactions to the U.S. exporter and import transactions to the U.S. importer. TheLFTTDcontains the same firm identifier found in many other Census data products.This dataset has t

25、wo components. Matching the two components yields the LFTTD.Foreign trade data assembled by the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Customs captures all U.S. international trade.Longitudinal Business Database (LBD) of the U.S. Census Bureau, which records annual employment, industry (4-digit 1987 Standard I

26、ndustrial Classification SIC4), and survival information for most U.S. establishments. 统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSInternational Experience Based on Corporate Foreign Trade Statistics: USA2022/7/2513https:/ec.europa.eu/eurostat/cache/metadata/en/ext_tec_sims.htm#stat_pres1628781796279统计学院SCHOOL OF STATI

27、STICSBasic Ideas of Integrating the Two Statistical SystemsTake enterprise as the join field and link the bottom data of two statistical systemsObserve comprehensively and deeply through multi-dimensional classificationUse big data analysis methods to develop new data productsDimensionBy the industr

28、y of the enterpriseBy the ownership of the enterpriseBy the scale of the enterpriseBy the region of the enterpriseBy the partner countryAnalysisCross classificationFormulate new indicatorExplore social networkRecommendation systemForecast2022/7/2514统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSBasic Steps to Integrate th

29、e Two Statistical Systems2022/7/2515Link source dataMulti-dimensional classificationdata analysisdata releaseConnect trade statistics with enterprise statistics to reflect foreign trade activities and the contribution of trade to the economy from the perspective of the traders.the structure of trade

30、rs in foreign tradecontributions of different traders in foreign tradecharacteristics of different traders in foreign trade activitiescontribution of foreign trade to the development of different traders统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSQuestions that can be Answered by Integrating the Two Statistical Systems

31、2022/7/2516统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSPart 2Integration AnalysisGeneral IdeaIndicator EstablishmentBig Data Statistical Analysis2022/7/2517Basic AnalysisFurther AnalysisStatic AnalysisDynamic Analysis统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSBasic Idea of Integration Analysis2022/7/2518key indicatordashboard indicator s

32、ystemmulti-dimensional classificationdill-down analysisdistributioncore enterprisecore commoditiesretention analysistransfer analysistrend forecast“Indicators are a way of seeing the big picture by looking at a small piece of it.”（Plan Canada）The origin of indicator is the raw data. The purpose is t

33、o create new features with obvious economic or statistical significance and convert the original features into new ones.pinpointing problems; identifying trends; setting priority; monitoring progress; forecasting.Formulation methods: combining or decomposingSelection principles: economic implication

34、s; statistical relevance; management feasibility统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSFormulation and Selection of Economic Indicators2022/7/2519 Data and features determine the upper limit of machine learning, while models and algorithms only approach this upper limit.The structure of traders in foreign trade. F

35、or specific commodity, calculate the foreign trade share ofabove(below)-scale enterprises / enterprises of strategic importance / state-owned (private, foreign-funded) enterprisesConcentration of trading enterprises. For specific commodities, calculatemarket share of top k import and export enterpri

36、ses; Gini coefficient; Theil indexConcentration of trading partners. For specific commodities, calculatemarket share of top k trading partner countries; Gini coefficient; Theil indexThe trade dependence of the enterprises. For specific enterprises, calculateimports/total output (value added; operati

37、ng income; fixed assets; current assets); export/total output (value added; operating income)统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSExamples of Indicators2022/7/2520统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSCombine Static and Dynamic AnalysisStatic AnalysisDynamic Analysis2022/7/2521统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSBig Data Analysis Framewo

38、rk for integrated Trade-Enterprise2022/7/2522Descriptive StatisticsvisualizationNetwork Analysisenterprise networkcommodity networkcountry networkTrend PredictionARIMAmachine learning统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSVisualization - Structure Trend Charttrade mapbrick map2022/7/2523A commodity of an enterpris

39、e above scale: trade country trade mode统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSVisualization - Commodity Monitory Chartthermal diagram of imported commodity2022/7/2524统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSVisualization - Dynamic Graphdynamic chart of trade value2022/7/2525统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSNetwork AnalysisNetwork construct

40、ionenterprise network; commodity network; country networkNetwork analysisGeneral analysis: network diameter, connected components, path length, degree distribution, clustering coefficient, network densityNode centrality: degree centrality, closeness centrality, intermediationCommunity discovery: FN

41、algorithm, spectral clustering algorithm2022/7/2526统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSsoybean（HS1201）trade network，2017Directed weighted graphNode: (main) countryEdge weight: import/export volumeNetwork density：0.235Clustering coefficient：0.485Network diameter：32022/7/2527Network of Commodity Trading Countries

42、Reflecting the trade situation, trade relations and strategic position统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSNetwork Centrality of SoybeanCountry/RegionOut-DegreeIn-DegreeCloseness Centrality IntermediaryBrazil0.6470.1185.15E-080Canada0.6470.1185.82E-080.287China0.2940.4127.45E-080.728Germany0.1180.4126.69E-080Net

43、herlands0.1180.4716.16E-080Paraguay0.5880.1186.29E-080.390Russia0.0590.2353.74E-080India0.17604.60E-080USA0.5880.4126.58E-080.404Uruguay0.3530.1185.10E-080.015Argentina0.2940.1765.52E-080.140Ukraine0.2940.0596.18E-080.338Turkey0.0590.2942.45E-080Japan00.2352.79E-080Mexico00.1761.62E-080Spain00.5297.

44、13E-080.324Other Asian Countries00.2355.73E-080Indonesia00.1185.08E-0802022/7/2528统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICScommodity network path length distributioncommodity network node degree distributionData：Annual import or export commodities of the enterprise2022/7/2529Commodity Network Identifying the strateg

45、ic value of commodities, digging out core commodities and establishing a new logic for forecasting and early-warning统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSCommodity Network Centrality AnalysisDegree CentralityCloseness CentralityIntermediaryhinge chain partsmachine parts not listed in other tax numbers in this cha

46、pterradar display tube partsother leather boots with insole length 24cm (over ankle)mens woolen hooded cold-proof jacket and windbreakerinflatable speedboat for recreation or sportsinflatable speedboat for recreation or sportszinc and zinc alloy bars, rods, profiles, wiresother spun silk yarns not f

47、or retailother sound recording and playback devices using optical mediaother pure synthetic fiber clothother diesel vehicles with exhaust volume 4lzinc and zinc alloy bars, rods, profiles and wiresother synthetic staple fabrics blended with other fibersother paper-made bobbins, reelsKey Commodities

48、Based On Centralitycommodities connected to a core commodity2022/7/2530统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSCommodity Community Discoverycommunity division based on FN algorithm(7 categories)community division based on spectral clustering algorithm (4 categories)2022/7/2531统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSSpecific Produc

49、t DiscoveryCommodity competitiveness: international competitiveness index, international market share index, comparative advantage indexLink commodity mining: trade intensity index, complementarity indexProduct portrait: BRICH algorithm, DBSCAN algorithm2022/7/2532统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSTrade Trend

50、 Forecast forecast by ARIMAforecast by LSTMData：Annual high-end commodity exports2022/7/2533统计学院SCHOOL OF STATISTICSPrediction ResultsTimeTrue ValueARIMAErrorLSTMError20171170210187654431580.068667304100.0520171274877581678804150.093697178200.06920180157708566507734140.12541054870.06220180248527865431391570.111479480940.01220180359722520540490010.095586524360.01820180458418544522466000.106556705370.04720180558195190529104130.091569222070.02220180660757985558231020.081618965730.01920180760158422559303770.07604873480.0052018086193452