企业财务多主体博弈分析

1、随着全球经济一体化趋势的加剧，引发企业危机的诱因愈发多样，而财务危机作为企业危机 中最显著、最综合的表现，其预示和决定着企业的生死存亡。由此，探索企业财务危机的演 化机理和演化路径，并以此提出切实可行的财务危机控制策略，是当前学术界和实务界亟待 解决的关键性问题。目前，国内外关于企业财务危机的文献已比较成熟，也取得了一定的研 究成果。然而这些研究大多局限于从财务活动本身出发探讨财务危机的形成，而缺乏从系统 全局的角度考虑财务危机的演化过程，所以很难从根源上找出企业财务的病因所在，也就无 法为企业管理者所用。由此，笔者从复杂系统的角度出发，通过探索企业财务多主体间的演 化博弈行为，深入剖析企业财

2、务危机的演化机理，为企业在错综复杂的危机因素中分类制定 对策和措施提供依据。With the intensification of global economy integration trend, cause the cause of enterprise crisis is increasingly diverse, and the financial crisis as one of the most striking enterprise crisis, the most comprehensive performance, its signal and determines the

3、survival of enterprises. Thus, exploring the evolution mechanism and evolution path of enterprise financial crisis, and put forward practical and feasible control strategy, financial crisis is the key problem urgently to be solved in the current academia and practice field. At present, the domestic

4、and foreign literature about enterprise financial crisis has been more mature, also has obtained certain research results. However, these studies mostly confined to itself from financial activities set out to explore the formation of the financial crisis, and the lack of consideration from the Angle

5、 of system global financial crisiss evolution, so it is difficult to find out the causes of corporate finance from the source, also cannot be used for enterprise managers. As a result, the author from the perspective of complex system, through the enterprise financial between multi-agent evolutionar

6、y game behavior, deeply analyzes the evolution mechanism of the enterprise financial crisis for the enterprise crisis in the complex factors in the countermeasures and measures to provide the reference for classification.二、企业财务多主体博弈分析Second, the enterprise financial multi-agent game analysis企业财务多主体的

7、特征分析。企业财务系统主要包括6大子系统，即筹资子系统、投 资子系统、采购子系统、生产子系统、销售子系统、利润子系统，它们完成了资金的筹集、 投放、使用、收回及分配的财务循环。企业在周而复始的财务循环中，无时无刻不在与股东、 供应商、客户、债权人和政府等利益相关者之间发生各种财务关系。笔者界定的企业财务主 体正是指企业财务及其与企业财务密切相关的利益相关者。其中企业为系统的核心，它与其 他财务主体通过物质、信息以及资金的流动相互作用、相互影响，构成了各种利益点交织而 成的复杂巨系统。(a) enterprise financial characteristics analysis of mul

8、ti-agent. Enterprise financial system mainly includes the six architectural system, namely the subsystems of fund-raising, investment, procurement subsystem, subsystem subsystems of production, sales, profit, they completed the fund raise, delivery, use, recovery and distribution of the financial cy

9、cle. Enterprise in the cycle of the financial cycle, ever-present with shareholders, suppliers, customers, creditors and government relations between various financial stakeholders. The author defines the financing body is refers to the enterprise financial and closely related to enterprise financia

10、l stakeholders. The core of the enterprise for the system, it and other financial bodies through the material, information and capital flow interaction, mutual influence, and constitute the various interests interwoven into a complex giant system.根据复杂系统的基本原理，结合企业财务主体的自身特殊性，企业财务主体具有以下两个方 面的特征：第一，企业财务

11、主体具有适应性和智能性，个体会根据环境和其他利益主体来调 整自身的状态和行为，使自身发生适应性变化。第二，企业财务主体是有限理性人。现代经 济学表明，人的行为是不具有完全理性的，企业财务主体由于在社会地位、占有资源及获取 信息能力上的差异性和不对称性，并不具备做出理性决策的条件，主体之间的适应和博弈的 决策只能是有限理性的。According to the basic principle of complex system, combined with the particularity of business finance subject, enterprise financial mai

12、n body has the characteristics of the following two aspects: first, the adaptive and intelligent enterprise financial subject, individuals according to the environment and other stakeholders to adjust their status and behavior, make its adaptability to changes. Second, the enterprise financial main

13、body is limited rational person. Modern economics shows that peoples behavior is not have fully rational, because of business finance subject in social status, resources and access to information ability and the difference of the asymmetry, does not have the conditions to make rational decisions, th

14、e adaptation between the subject and the game is only a limited rational decision.企业财务多主体的博弈行为。企业财务系统是一个开放的复杂巨系统，每个主体有着各 自不同的目的和利益，在一个利益分化和利益主体多元化的系统中，每时每刻都在发生着各 种复杂的交易和利益冲突。因此，博弈是财务主体生存所面临的基本环境，也是财务主体发 展的根本动力。每个财务主体之间的博弈行为是围绕着相关的价值创造活动进行的。从价值 链的角度来看，企业是一个投入一产出的价值增值系统，它利用和协调价值链上各利益主体 的特定资源进行投入一产出活动并

15、取得回报，企业财务主体在成本和收益之间必然展开经济 利益的争夺和博弈。如，在筹资活动中，债权人的总收益是利息，总成本包括贷款本金和机 会成本，企业与债权人之间必然会围绕利息展开博弈。(2) the game behavior of enterprise financial agent. Enterprise financial system is an open complex giant system, each subject has a different purpose and interests, the interests of a differentiation and dive

16、rsification of the system, all the time in the event of a complex transactions and conflict of interest. As a result, the game is facing the existence of financial main body basic environment, also is the fundamental driving force of the development of the financial main body. Each game behavior of

17、financial main body is around the relevant value creation activities. From the perspective of value chain, the enterprise is the value of one input - output value system, it USES and the coordination of each benefit main body on the value chain of a specific resource input - output activities and pa

18、y off, the enterprise financial main body is bound to expand economic interests between costs and benefits of competition and game. Such as in the financing activities, creditors interest is the total revenue, total cost including the loan principal and opportunity cost, must be built around the int

19、erest game between enterprise and the creditors.（三）企业财务主体的演化博弈机制。传统博弈论中最基本的一个假设前提是参与人为完全理 性人，这要求博弈双方都具备完美的判断和预测能力，这种完全理性假设在现实世界中显然 不成立。诺贝尔经济学奖得主Simon认为，博弈环境的复杂性、信息的不完全性、人类认 识能力的有限性都决定了人的行为理性是有限的。基于此提出了演化博弈论的思想。演化博 弈论认为，有限理性主体不能正确地计算自己的收益支付，做出最佳决策的能力有限，决策 者大多是通过试错和对较高收益策略进行学习模仿，最终达到一种稳定均衡状态。因此，演 化博弈的

20、过程实际上是采用更高收益的策略的人数比率逐渐上升的动态演化过程。同样，企 业财务系统中的利益主体也都是有限理性决策人，它们之间的博弈属于一种演化博弈。每个 财务主体不可能严格按照效用最大化进行决策，在多数情况下是通过了解博弈的历史，通过 学习模仿其他主体来动态调整决策。一组组单个的利益主体在寻求相互适应中不断发展，从 而推动了整个企业财务系统的发展和财务危机的演化。（3） the evolutionary game mechanism of business finance subject. Traditional game theory is one of the most basic as

21、sumptions in completely rational person, this requires game both sides have perfect judgment and ability to predict, such apparently completely rational assumption in the real world. Nobel prize-winning economist Simon argues that the complexity of the game environment, information incompleteness, t

22、he limitations of human cognitive ability determines a persons behavior rationality is limited. Based on this puts forward the idea of evolutionary game theory. Considered evolutionary game theory, bounded rationality subject can correctly calculate the yield of their payments, limited ability to ma

23、ke the best decision, decision makers are mostly by trial and error and imitation, the policy of higher-yielding eventually reaches a stable equilibrium state. Therefore, evolutionary game is actually the process of adopting the tactics of higher earnings ratio of the number of the dynamic evolution

24、 process of gradually rise. Also, enterprise benefit main body in the financial system are limited rational decision maker, the game belong to a kind of evolutionary game between them. Each financial bodies could not strictly according to the utility maximization decision-making, in most cases is th

25、rough understanding the history of the game, by learning to imitate other subject to dynamic adjustment decisions. The interests of the members of a single subject in seeking to adapt to each other in continuous development, so as to promote the development of the entire enterprise financial system

26、and the evolution of the financial crisis.三、基于多主体博弈的企业财务危机演化动因分析Third, based on the multi-agent game of evolutionary dynamics analysis of enterprise financial crisis（一）企业财务危机演化的动力。根据上文分析，企业财务主体的演化博弈是财务系统运行的 动力。单个财务主体为了更好地适应其他主体，在博弈过程中，会不断地“学习”和“积累 经验”，修正相互作用的模式。在接受外界信息时，按照既有的规则，如果适应了其他主体， 则不对规则做出修改，

27、如果不能适应，则需要对自身规则进行修改。当多个主体对规则进行 修改，则通过相互作用形成网络，构成受限生成过程，形成一个新的主体、新规则、新系统， 从而产生涌现现象。从复杂系统理论的视角出发，企业财务危机正是构成企业财务系统的多 个适应性主体在彼此之间的财务利益博弈中，相互作用、相互影响，不断地发展、演化，从 而使企业财务系统不断分化、涌现的结果。(a) the evolution of enterprise financial crisis. According to above analysis, the evolution of business finance subject is th

28、e power of financial system is running. A single financial main body in order to better adapt to the other subject, in the process of game, will continue to learning and experience, fixed patterns of interaction. When accept outside information, in accordance with the existing rules, if adapted to t

29、he other main body, is no rule to make changes, if you cant adapt to, you will need to modify its own rules. When multiple main body modification of the rules, through the interaction of network formation, composition and the constrained generating procedures to form a new subject, new rules, new sy

30、stems, resulting in a phenomenon to appear. From the Angle of view of the complex system theory, the enterprise financial crisis constituted enterprise financial system more adaptive main body in financial interest game between each other, interaction, mutual influence, and constantly development, e

31、volution, which makes the result of the increasing division of enterprise financial system, the emerging.(二)企业财务危机演化的关键因素。根据企业财务危机演化的动力可知，企业财务危机演化 的主要因素在于企业财务多主体的博弈行为，根据主体的类别不同，可将其分为内部博弈因 素和外部博弈因素。(2) the evolution of the key factors of enterprise financial crisis. According to the dynamic evolution

32、 of enterprise financial crisis shows that the main factors of evolution of enterprise financial crisis is that enterprise financial multi-agent game behavior, according to the main body category is different, it can be divided into internal game factors and external factors.(1)内部博弈因素。企业财务危机的内部博弈因素主

33、要源自于企业与内部财务主体之间的博 弈，即与股东和员工之间的博弈。首先，股东是企业的发起人，为企业提供资本支持，是企 业发展的原始动力；股东最关注的投入回报是股利和股价。对于企业而言，它倾向于选择留 存盈余作为首要的资金来源，因而会相应降低股利支付水平。对于股东而言，它会通过股票 的持有和出售引起股价的波动，从而左右企业的股利政策。因此企业与股东之间关于股利的 博弈必然导致股价的波动，从而引发企业财务危机。其次，员工是企业的主体，是企业的劳 动力资源。员工为企业提供专用技能并受企业职业约束，得到固定工资、奖金以及自我实现 感。企业为了获取更高的收益而激励员工，员工为了获取丰厚的报酬而积极工作。

34、因此，企 业与员工之间关于报酬的博弈必然影响员工的工作效率，从而导致销售和产量的下降。(1) the factors within the game. Internal game factors of enterprise financial crisis originated in the game between enterprises and the internal financial subject, namely, and the game between shareholders and employees. First, shareholder is the sponsor of the en