英语文献选读(经济类)

1、Four implications of Chinas rate cut中国降息的四个预示TEAM MEMBERS小组成员BACKGROUNDBACKGROUNDThesecond cut in Chinas interest rates in three monthsreveals key elements in Beijings thinking as it tries to reconcile an economic policy agenda beset with conflicting priorities, analysts said on Monday. 三个月内中国第二次降息显

2、示了北京方面考虑的关键。周一，有专家称此次降息目的在于调节经济政策进程和需要优先考虑的事项之间的矛盾。The task before China requires some delicate maneuvers. It aims to wean the country off an extraordinary debt binge (seeMartin Wolf) while keeping GDP growth fairly robust. It hopes to combat disinflationary pressures while preventing the renminbi f

3、rom sliding too sharply against the US dollar. 中国目前的任务需要严密的策略。这个任务的目标是使国家摆脱巨额的债务危机的同时保持GDP适度健康增长，在抵御通货紧缩压力的同时防止人民币对美元汇率下降过快。debt binge 债务危机disinflationary pressure通货紧缩压力It wants to curb a dangerous slump in industrial profits without resorting to another round of investment pump-priming. It needs to

4、 keep domestic liquidity levels buoyantin spite of a surge in capital flight.它试图遏制工业利润的暴跌，而不依靠新一轮刺激经济的政府投资；此外，还需提高国内资金流动性水平，尽管外逃的资本在不断增加。industrial profits 工业利润pump-priming 刺激经济的政府投资liquidity levels 流动性水平Several analysts said the latest rate cut, which shaved 0.25 per cent off the benchmark lending

5、and deposit rate, reveals at least four planks in Beijings approach as it tackles these contradictions.一些专家表示，最新的降息降低了0.25%的存贷款基准利率，这揭露了北京所采取的措施中的至少四条纲领，因为它解决了这几个方面的矛盾。benchmark lending and deposit rate 存贷款基准利率拓展拓展存贷款基准利率历年调整情况 （1）经国务院批准，中国人民银行决定，自2013年7月20日起全面放开金融机构贷款利率管制。 （2）2014年11月21日中国人民银行决定，自2

6、014年11月22日起下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率。金融机构一年期贷款基准利率下调0.4个百分点至5.6%;一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至2.75%,同时结合推进利率市场化改革,将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限由存款基准利率的1.1倍调整为1.2倍;其他各档次贷款和存款基准利率相应调整,并对基准利率期限档次作适当简并。 （3）2015年3月1日中国人民银行决定下调金融机构人民币贷款和存款基准利率。金融机构一年期贷款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至5.35%;一年期存款基准利率下调0.25个百分点至2.5%,同时结合推进利率市场化改革,将金融机构存款利率浮动区间的上限由 存款基准

7、利率的1.2倍调整为1.3倍;其他各档次存贷款基准利率及个人住房公积金存贷款利率相应调整。Managing debt, not managing growth0101PART1Crucial to any understanding of Chinas monetary policy priorities is the insight that Beijing is more concerned these days with managing debt than it is with managing GDP growth, analysts said. 专家称，理解中国货币政策重点关键的一

8、点是，比起促进GDP增长，北京方面这段时间更加注重债务的管理。The reason for this is compelling. With total debt estimated at over 240 per cent of GDP, China paid far more in debt service charges last year than the total value of its economic growth. Thus bringing the debt load down is an essential part of safeguarding future gro

9、wth. 采取这样做法的理由是值得关注的。由于估计的债务总额占GDP比重超过240%，中国去年支付的债务服务费用远超过经济增长总额。因此减轻债务是保障未来经济增长措施的重要部分。“Indeed we think that monetary policy decisions in China are increasingly driven not just by the classic issues of growth and inflation, but also by the need to manage the very high level of debt,” say Andrew Ba

10、tson and Chen Long at GaveKalDragonomics, a research firm. “实际上我们认为中国货币政策不仅仅决定于经济增长和通货膨胀的传统问题，而是越发倾向于根据控制高水平的负债的需要决定。”The chart to the left demonstrates Chinas predicament（困境）. Before the rate cut in November, the average interest rate charged on bank loans was 6.97 per cent.左边的图表展示了中国的困境。在11月份降息之前，

11、银行贷款平均利率水平为6.97%。（比例是说明性的，并不精确，假设各种债务的利率与平均贷款利率相等）If this is applied to the 200 per cent of GDP in non-government debt, the annual debt-service cost across the economy is equivalent to 14 per cent of GDP. But although the cuts in November and over the weekend have helped to bring down the cost of pr

12、ivate sector debt service relative to GDP, the ratio remains several percentage points higher than the countrys prevailing GDP growth rate (7.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year).如果非政府债务占GDP比重为200%，则每年整体经济偿债成本会等于GDP的14%左右。尽管11月和上周末的降息有助于降低与GDP相关的私营部门的偿债成本，该比例仍然略高于国家一般的GDP增长率（去年第四季度为7.3%）de

13、bt-service cost 偿债成本 Private sector 私营部门拓展拓展2 债务是影响利率行情的重要因素自2009年以来，国内企业部门的广义负债一直快速增长，其增长速度不仅超过了国内生产总值的实际增长率，而且也高于国内生产总值的名义增长率。这样，债务率（广义负债与名义国内生产总值的比率）也在不断上升中。所谓“广义负债”，不仅包括企业对银行的借贷，也包括企业在债券和票据市场的融资，还包括企业相互间的拆借和其他各种欠款等。在经济增长减速的大背景下，企业负债率的上升也意味着它们通过举借新债去偿还到期旧债的压力在不断增加，而这倾向于推动利率上升。可以说，企业部门负债率是影响利率水平走势

14、的“第六个”重要宏观经济因素。除了一些行业中的企业负债外，一些地方的政府性债务近年来也在增加，它们可能也给利率行情带来了显著的推动作用。有数据表明，2014年到期需偿还的地方政府负有偿还责任债务占政府债务总额的21.9%，是地方政府偿债压力最重的一年。一些地方政府的偿债压力可能还会进一步加大。几年前借的债务，其利率水平低于最近的水平。如果一些地方政府在财政收入增长减缓、财政赤字继续存在的背景下，试图用新债务置换旧债务，那么，新债务的利率水平将显著高于旧债务。这样，一些地方政府的债务负担还将加大，正如一些行业中的企业债务负担一样 。更重要的是，债务的利率水平与债务负担之间可能存在一定程度上的恶性

15、循环关系，即债务负担加重后，新债务的利率上升压力就会加大，而利率水平的上升则会进一步加重债务负担。在极端情况下，这种恶性循环的最终后果就是债务危机。 More rate cuts, but not in a big rush0202PART2Given the imperative to whittle away at Chinas debt mountain, almost all analysts see several future interest rate cuts and other forms of monetary easing in prospect. Indeed, the

16、 key questions are how quickly and how emphatically policy will be loosened. 中国削减如山的债务势在必行，几乎所有专家都认为未来利率会进一步降低，预料其他形式的货币政策将会放宽松。实际上，政策放宽的速度和程度是最为关键的问题。Here is a sample of current predictions. Shen Jianguang, chief Asia economist at Mizuho Securities, said:“We now believe that the PBOC may need to cu

17、t interest rates at least two more times this year under our consumer price index (CPI) inflation forecast of 1.4 per cent year on year, and cut the (bank required reserve ratio) RRR four more times for major banks.”“我们预测CPI将同比增长1.4%，因此我们相信”PBoC今年可能至少需要降息两次并且至少四次降低主要银行的法定准备金率“PBOC 中国人民银行（The Peoples

18、 Bank of China）RRR 法定准备金（Required Reserve Ratio）Andrew Batson and Chen Long wrote:“We do expect at least one more interest rate cut in the next six months, to help address the growing gap between the high cost of capital and the falling return on capital that is discouraging new investment.” “我们预测接下

19、来的六个月里至少有一次以上的降息，以解决高成本和低收益之间的差距越来越大，从而阻碍新的投资的问题”Andr de Silva, Head of Asia-Pacific Rates Research at HSBC, wrote:“Given the slowdown in domestic demand, there is scope for inflation to fall further. More easing, beyond the latest lending rate cut, has to be carried out to bring about a material fa

20、ll in cost of financing within the system. HSBC Economics expects one more lending rate cut and one more RRR reduction in the second quarter of 2015.” 由于国内需求放缓，通货膨胀还有进一步下滑的余地。除了最近的降低贷款利率，应当执行更多的宽松政策来实质性地降低系统内金融成本。HSBC预测，在2015年第二季度，还会有至少一次贷款利率和法定准备金率的下调。HSBC 汇丰银行（The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Cor

21、poration Limited）The main argument against cutting rates in a rush is that such a policy could risk reigniting a domestic borrowing spree, while also applying an unwelcome amount of pressure on the renminbi to depreciate against the strong US dollar. 反对过分急于降息的主要论点在于，这样的政策有引起国内借贷热潮，同时加大人民币对强势美元贬值的压力。

22、Nevertheless, with disinflation driving real interest rates higher (the real deposit rate rose to 2.5 per cent in January, the highest level since October 2009, and real interbank interest rates were at a historical high of 4.11 per cent), some cuts are required simply to keep the price of money sta

23、ble. 然而，随着通货紧缩驱使实际利率上升（一月份，实际存款利率上升到2.5%，是自2009年10月以来最高水平；并且实际同业拆借利率高达历史高点4.11%），需要削减利率来保持货币价格稳定。interbank interest rates 银行间同业拆借利率 Easing a dangerous industrial profit slump 0303PART3The other important imperative for Beijing is to cushion the blow for industrial enterprises by cutting their intere

24、st burdens, in order to forestall a meltdown in bank asset quality. 为了防止银行贷款质量危机，北京方面的另一个当务之急是通过削减工业企业的利息负担以减轻对其的打击。The chart to the left shows the precipitous decline in the profits of industrial enterprises at the end of last year. 左边这个图表显示了去年年底工业企业利润急剧下跌的情况。In December, industrial company profits

25、 fell 8.0 per cent year on year, while full-year 2014 profit for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dropped by 7.8 per cent year on year, and increased a mere 6.9 per cent for the private sector. By industry, flat glass, cement, new energy and steel production continue to be hit by unused capacity, whil

26、e financing expenses are rising. 12月，工业企业利润同比减少8个百分点，同时2014年国有企业全年利润同比下降7.8个百分点，而私营企业仅增长6.9%。从行业来看，平板玻璃、水泥、新能源、钢铁生产都因生产力过剩遭到打击，而融资成本依然在不断上升。SOEs (state-owned enterprises) 国有企业private sector 私营部门Beijing is clear that unless it tempers this downward momentum, the build up of non-performing loans in th

27、e banking system could explode as companies fail to service their bank debt. 北京方面很清楚，由于企业无法偿还银行债务，如果不采取措施调解这种下跌势头，银行系统聚积的不良贷款可能会最终酿成巨灾。If that was to happen, the ebbing pace of fixed asset investments (FAI) the main driver of economic growth could slacken into a rout. Mizuhos Shen already expects FA

28、I to grow at only 14.6 per cent in the January-February period, down from 15.7 per cent in December last year 如果这种情况发生，会促使固定资产投资经济增长主要驱动力从放缓到崩溃。瑞穗银行的沈先生预测到固定资产投资在1到2月份期间仅增长14.6%，较去年12月的15.7%有所下降。FAI 固定资产投资（fixed asset investments）non-performing loans 不良贷款 Mizuho 株式会社银行（日文名）/瑞穗银行（中文名）Rate cuts inhibi

29、ted by surging capital outflows 0404One key constraint inhibiting rate cuts is a well-established pattern of capital outflows. As rates decline, so investment funds rush out of the country seeking higher returns elsewhere, adding pressure for a renminbi depreciation against the US dollar. 阻碍降息的一个关键制

30、约因素是资本外流的固定模式。当利率下降，加上人民币对美元汇率贬值的压力，国内的投资基金会流向报酬更高的国家。PART4 capital outflow 资本外流Bn（billion）十亿Capital outflows reached Rmb 118bn in December and Rmb108bn in January, according to HSBC, marking the first time since data was made available that there has been two consecutive months of renminbi outflows in excess of Rmb100bn. 12月，中国外流资本金额达1180亿，1月份达1080亿。据HSBC称，这标志着自数据可获得以来，第一次人民币外流已经连续两个月超过1000亿元。“Outflows are likely to persist, creating a structural shortage of liquidity that the central bank will need to offset