行业报告,全球制药业发展战略

1、行业报告,全球制药业发展战略Dr Brian Tempest advises Companies, Banks, High Net Worth Individuals and Investment Funds on their Strategy in the Emerging World based on his wide experience in China, Japan, South East Asia and India where he has lived for the last decade.Brian has worked for Ranbaxy Laboratories si

2、nce 1995 holding the position of Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer until 2005. He was then Chief Mentor and Non Executive Director until 2008 when he retired. He is one of the few westerners to have led a Sensex Nifty 50 Indian blue Chip MNC and as a result has a valuable insight into In

3、dia. Brian has also worked for Glaxo as Regional Director Far East and Regional Director Middle East & Africa from 1985 to 1992.Brian has worked in the Pharmaceutical Industry for the last 40 years and has managed Healthcare businesses in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, Middle East

4、, Australasia, China, Japan and India. He has also led many sessions at Investor Meetings held around the world. He is now Independent Chairman of Religare Capital Markets PLC and Non Executive Director of SRL the largest Indian Diagnostic Company. Brian is an international advisor to MAPE, India an

5、d the United Nations (UNCTAD) in addition to being a member of the SCRIP Global awards panel he is on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Generic Medicines. Brian speaks at global conferences and more information on these presentations can be found on his website .Brian has a PhD in Polymer Chemis

6、try from Lancaster University in 1971 and in 2009 he became Chairman of the Advisory Board for the Lancaster University Management School which ranks 4th in the UK He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Medicine and a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry and is a Chartered Chemist. He is now Cha

7、irman and Senior Partner of Hale & Tempest Generic Medicines are part of the Solution for Ageing Populations China/India with 37% population, 14% of wealth and most of the GDP growthStructural Change -Big Pharma In 2010, FDA approved Only 21 New Drug Source: Fiercebiotech 22 Jan 2011 USA Dept. o

8、f J Fines on Big PharmaSource: Chemistry World Jan 2011 USA Batch RecallsSource: Deutchen Bank 29 March 2011 Approvals & Reimbursements Source: Pharmatimes UK July-August 2010 Big Pharma Losing to Local Players Source GSK Presentation Emerging World Share of PharmaSource EIU, OECD, WHO, IMS, Rol

9、and Berger Top 8 Cos in Emerging Markets 2008 Increasing Pace of Emerging Markets AcquisitionsEmerging Market Investor DaysMarch 16, 2010December 10, 2009July 2, 2009 Large Pharma Entering Generics(Egypt, Pakistan, Near East )(MENA, LatAm, Asia-Pac) (Algeria)With the slow-down of Western markets, Ph

10、arma are rapidly repositioning to focus on emerging markets for growth Sales Force Job Cuts in Press since 2009Structural Change Generic Companies Asia vs. the Western Generic CompaniesSource: Factset, Religare Pricing PressuresSource: Watson European Generic Prices Source Ranbaxy European Generic P

11、rices Source Ranbaxy USA - ANDA Growing Approval TimesSource FDA Chief M Hamburg, GpHA Conference February 2010 u2005 16.3 months averageu2009 26.7 months averageuAround 2000 ANDAs awaiting approvaluFDA explained as a result of staff shortagesuRegulatory filing fees needed Season of Warning Letters

12、/ Import AlertsSource: Deutche Bank July 2011 USA - Litigation Success Rates Source RBC Capital Markets January 15 2010uPatent Challenges on rise - 65 FTFs in 2009uSuccess rate at 48% - or 76% including dealsu3 courts hold 69% with 36% success e.g. NJu4 courts never ruled against generics e.g. NYuAt

13、 risk launches on the rise 6 in 2009uTeva has 12 of the 28 at risk launches 2002/9uSettlements on the rise 54 in 2009uTeva accounts for a third of all settlementsuAuthorized generics on the rise 25 in 2009uWatson represents a fifth of all AGs Generic Profit Margin Profile in descending order source:

14、 Deutsche Bank July 2010 Top 25 Global Generic CompaniesSource: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011 Next 24 Global Generic CompaniesSource: Generics Bulletin 10 June 2011 Patent Expiries Source: Sandoz In 2016, Among Top 10, 8 will be Biologic/Resp Source: Sandoz EGA Conference 2011Structural Changes Ind

15、ian Pharma CompaniesWHO Pre Qualified Products Indian Generic FDA ANDA Approvals Niche TechnologySource: MAPE India Share of CRAMS Market Lots of Opportunity for CROs in IndiaSource: 16 Feb 2011 Macro Structural Changes Pfizer & Hisun Pharma Wholesaler sets up China JV UK Coop

16、 the worlds largest consumer cooperative uGBP10b UK company urunning food stores, banks, insurance, funeral homes, travel agents, farms and pharmaciesu3rd rank pharmacy chain in UK with 800 storesuOwns UK pharmaceutical wholesaler Sants uOpus Marketing JV with Day Lewis Pharmacy Chain offers 113 products under Prospect branduTianjin Tasly Sants Manufacturing JV opened 2010, “production under way” Jun 2011uWith