第章+成本计划和绩效

1、整理ppt项目管理概论项目管理概论 北京北京2011.08 整理ppt第第9章章 成本计划和绩效成本计划和绩效整理ppt本章要点本章要点 挣值概念 估算成本时要考虑的细目 准备基线预算 计算累计成本 确定挣值 分析成本绩效 预测项目完工成本 控制项目成本 管理现金流整理ppt引子问题引子问题项目实例项目实例活动费用预算(万)122134.5435164728296105110.5合计31项目由11个活动组成总工期为121天费用为31万 按计划二个月应该完成活动1、2、3、5、6、8经统计实际完成了活动1、2、3、5、6实际花费13.9万。整理ppt哪个结论正确？哪个结论正确？结论1: 项目实际

2、进度比计划落后一点点 但费用控制得很好，只要在以后的二个月加快进度，成功完成项目是不成问题的。结论2： 项目进度落后与计划大约14% 费用也有10%左右的超支 如果后期不加强有效的管理和控制，项目失败是不可避免的。整理ppt整理ppt挣值的概念挣值的概念 考虑如下项目 粉刷9个房间 总工期9天 总费用$900 每个房间$100 工作绩效 在第4天中午时(4.5天) 花费了$400 你认为项目完成情况如何? 应该花费$450，才花费了$400 节约了$50，我真能干！整理ppt挣值的概念挣值的概念(Cont.) 从收入上来讲，赚钱了么？ 挣得了$300(因为只粉刷3个房间，即1/3总工作量) 花

3、费了$400 亏了$100 工作绩效 在第4天中午时(4.5天) 花费了$400 粉刷完毕3个房间 挣得了$300 从工期上来说，符合进度要求么？ 粉刷3个房间，应该是3天的工作量 却花费了4.5天 工期也晚了1.5天 时间就是金钱，工期也可以用钱表示 4.5天=$450；3天=$300 晚了1.5天=亏了$150整理ppt059天费用500900PV=450PV=Planned Value 计划值AC=400AC=Actual Cost 实际成本SV=EV-PV=-150SV=Schedule Variance 进度偏差EV=300EV=Earned Value 挣值CV=EV-AC=-10

4、0CV=Cost Variance 成本偏差挣值的概念挣值的概念(Cont.)整理pptPVACEVDATA DATETIMETO-DATA COST VARIANCEEACETGPROJECTION OF SCHEDULE DELAY AT COMPLETIONPROJECTION OF COST VARIANCE AT COMPLETIONTARGET SCHEDULETO-DATA SCHEDULE VARIANCECVSVPVEVACFCSTBACBACEACETGFCSTLEGEND:=Planned Value=Earned Value=Actual Cost=Forecast o

5、f remaining work=Budget At Completion=Estimate At completion=Estimate To GoCOSTEarned Value Elements”Alphabet soup”整理ppt项目成本估算项目成本估算 成本计划开始于项目建议书 成本部分包括 劳动力 原材料 分包商和顾问 租用设备和工具 差旅费 整理ppt项目预算过程的两个步骤项目预算过程的两个步骤 第一步 将项目成本分摊到WBS中的各工作包上 第二步 将工作包的预算分摊到整个工作包的工期内整理ppt分摊总预算成本分摊总预算成本 按项目总成本的不同成本要素分摊到适当的工作包中，并为

6、每一个工作包建立总预算成本成本要素：人工、原材料、分包商总预算成本(Total Budgeted Cost, TBC) 建立TBC的两种方法由顶向下(top-down)自下而上(bottom-up) 预算相加后不能超过项目总预算成本整理ppt分摊预算成本的WBS整理ppt包装机项目包装机项目整理ppt生成累计预算成本生成累计预算成本 将TBS分摊到各工作包的整个工期中 每期的成本是根据 组成该工作包的各个活动的进度所确定的 累计预算成本(cumulative budgeted cost, CBC) 按进度完成工作的预算量 累计的预算量 作为与实际花费成本比较的基准整理ppt包装机项目的每期预算

7、成本包装机项目的每期预算成本整理ppt包装机项目的累计预算成本包装机项目的累计预算成本(CBC)曲线曲线整理ppt确定实际成本确定实际成本 建立数据采集系统，追踪实际花费成本数据 分期分摊承付成本到实际成本中 承付成本，或保留成本即使最后付款，也应预先留出并随着工作的不断开展分期地摊入到实际成本中 用工作包的实际成本和承付成本与CBC进行比较 计算实际积累成本(Cumulative actual cost ,CAC)整理ppt包装机项目的每期实际成本包装机项目的每期实际成本整理ppt包装机项目的预算与实际成本的比较包装机项目的预算与实际成本的比较包装机项目的累计预算成本(CBC)曲线包装机项目

8、的累计实际成本(CAC)曲线整理ppt包装机项目的累计预算成本曲线与实际成本曲线包装机项目的累计预算成本曲线与实际成本曲线整理ppt确定绩效的价值确定绩效的价值(挣值挣值) 挣值(Earned value, EV)是实际工作绩效挣得的价值 挣值的确定 收集每个工作包所完成工作量的百分比 将这个百分比乘以这个工作包的总预算成本(TBC) 这一百分比的确定是非常重要的整理ppt表9-3 包装机项目每期累计完成比率%表9-4 包装机项目每期累计挣值整理ppt包装机项目的累计预算成本，累计实际成本包装机项目的累计预算成本，累计实际成本和累计挣值曲线和累计挣值曲线整理ppt成本绩效分析的四个指标成本绩效

9、分析的四个指标 TBC(total budgeted cost)：总预算成本 CBC(cumulative budgeted cost)：累计预算成本 CAC(cumulative actual cost)：累计实际成本 CEV(cumulative earned value)：累计挣值整理ppt截至第截至第8周的包装机项目状况周的包装机项目状况整理ppt费用绩效指数费用绩效指数(CPI) 绩效费用指数(CPI, Cost performance index)用来衡量正在进行的项目的成本效率 CPI = F(CEV,CAC)= CEV/CAC 包装机项目第8周的CPI： CPI =CEV/CA

10、C=54,000/68,000=0.79 表示每实际支出1美元，只实现0.79美元的挣值整理ppt成本偏差成本偏差(CV) 成本偏差(CV, Cost Variance)是衡量成本绩效的另一个指标 是累计挣值与累计实际成本之差CV = CEV CAC 包装机项目第8周的费用偏差CV： CV =CEV-CAC=$54,000-$68,000=-$14,000整理ppt成本预测成本预测 成本预测(FCAC，forecasted cost at completion） 的三种方法 假设项目未完工部分将按照到目前为止已完工的效率去进行FCAC =TBC/CPI不论过去已有项目的效率如何，剩余工作都按照

11、预算进行FCAC =CAC+(TBC-CEV)重估所有要进行的剩余工作的成本，然后再加上目前的累计实际成本FCAC = CAC +重估剩余工作的成本整理ppt引子问题解答引子问题解答项目实例挣值分析项目实例挣值分析 工作量统计是准确的 分析的结果完全不同 项目当前的PV为14.5万 AC为13.9万 EV为12.5万 进度偏差SV=EV-PV=12.5-14.5= -2（万）0 费用偏差CV=EV-AC=12.5-13.9= -1.4（万）0 进度绩效指数SPI=EV/PV=12.5/14.5= 0.86 1 费用绩效指数CPI=EV/AC=12.5/13.9= 0.901整理ppt结果结果

12、如果项目后期的费用绩效和进度绩效与前二个月差不多，在完工时的估算绩效为： 完工费用估算:EAC=(BAC-EV)/CPI+AC=(31-12.5)/0.9+13.9=34.45（万） 完工总时间估算:计划总工期/进度绩效指数SPI=121/0.86=140.7（天）整理ppt结论结论 项目进度落后与计划大约15% 费用也有10%左右的超支 如果后期不加强有效的管理和控制，项目失败是不可避免的。 整理ppt PV = $ 1,860 EV = $ 1,860 AC = $ 1,860This is the ideal situation, where everything goes accord

13、ing to plan.整理ppt PV = $ 1,900 AC = $ 1,700In this case, without Earned Value measurements, it appears were in good shape. Expenditures are less than planned.Spending Variance = - $ 200整理ppt PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700But with EV measurements, we see.$400 worth of work is behind schedule

14、in being completed; i.e., we are 21 percent behind where we planned to be.SV = EV PV = - $ 400SPI = SV / PV = - 21 %整理ppt PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700In addition, we can see.“Actuals” exceed “Value Earned” (EV), i.e., $1,500 worth of work was accomplished but it cost $1,700 to do so. We ha

15、ve a $200 cost overrun (i.e., 13% over budget) .CV = EV AC = - $ 200CV % = CV / EV x 100 = - 13 %整理ppt PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700This means only 79 cents worth of work was done for each $1.00 worth of work planned to be done. And, only 88 cents worth of work was actually done for each $1

16、.00 spentSPI = EV / PV = $ 0.79CPI = EV / AC = $ 0.88整理ppt PV = $ 1,900 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,700This is the worst kind of scenario, where all performance indicators are negative.SV = - $ 400; SPI = 0.79CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.88整理ppt PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200In this case there is bad new

17、s and good news.整理ppt PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200The bad news is that our work efficiency is a bit low; were getting only 92 cents of work done on the dollar. As a result, we are behind schedule.SPI = 0.92 SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 8 %整理ppt PV = $ 2,600 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,200The good news

18、 is that were under-running our budget. Were getting $1.09 worth of work done for each $1.00 were spending.CV = + $ 200; CV % = + 8 %CPI = 1.09整理ppt PV = $ 1,700 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,500In this case, the work is not being accomplished on schedule.SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 12 %SPI = 0.88整理ppt PV = $ 1,

19、700 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,500.but the cost of the work accomplished is just as we budgeted.CV = $ 0.00CPI = 1.00整理ppt PV = $ 1,400 EV = $ 1,600 AC = $ 1,400A positive scenario; right? But is it because we are out-performing our learning-curve standards or because we planned too pessimistically?整理ppt

20、 PV = $ 1,400 EV = $ 1,600 AC = $ 1,400Here in this CASE, we are getting work done at 114 percent efficiency.SPI = 1.14CPI = 1.14整理ppt PV = $ 1,400 EV = $ 1,600 AC = $ 1,400.work is ahead of schedule by 14 percent and under-running cost by 12.5%.SV = + $ 200; SV % = + 14 %CV = + $ 200; CV % = + 12.5

21、 %整理ppt PV = $ 2,000 EV = $ 2,200 AC = $ 2,400In case 6, work is being done efficiently, but a cost overrun is occurring.SPI = 1.10CV = - $ 200; CV % = - 9 %整理ppt PV = $ 2,200 EV = $ 2,400 AC = $ 2,400In case 7, work is being done efficiently, and costs are right on target.SPI = 1.09CV = $ 0.00整理ppt

22、 PV = $ 2,000 EV = $ 2,000 AC = $ 2,200See if you can analyze this one!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / AC整理ppt PV = $ 2,000 EV = $ 2,000 AC = $ 2,200Were on schedule. But in order to be on schedule, its costing us $1.00 to do each 91-cents worth of work. There

23、s a $200 overrun as a result.SV = $ 0.00CV = - $ 200; CPI = 0.91整理ppt PV = $ 1,700 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,900OK, see how you do with this one!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / AC整理ppt PV = $ 1,700 EV = $ 1,500 AC = $ 1,900Negative scenario:12% behind schedule and

24、 over-running cost by 27%SV = - $ 200; SV % = - 12 %CV = - $ 400; CV% = - 27 %整理ppt PV = $ 1,000 EV = $ 0.00 AC = $ 800Lets try one more!SV = EV PVSV % = SV / PVCV = EV ACCV % = CV / EVSPI = EV / PVCPI = EV / AC整理ppt PV = $ 1,000 EV = $ 0.00 AC = $ 800A tough one!Of $1,000 worth of scheduled work, no measurable milestone has yet been accomplished. However, $800 has been spent just getting started.SV = - $ 1,000; SV % = - 100 %CV = - $ 8