金融学英文课件：Chapter06 The Analysis of Investment Projects

1、Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall1ObjectiveExplain Capital BudgetingDevelop CriteriaCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall26.1 The Nature of Project Analysis6.2 Where do Investment Ideas come from?6.3 The Net Present Value Investment Rule6

2、.4 Estimating a Projects Cash Flows6.5 Cost of Capital6.6 Sensitivity Analysis Using Spreadsheets6.7 Analyzing Cost-Reducing Projects6.8 Projects with Different Lives6.9 Ranking Mutually Exclusive Projects6.10 Inflation & Capital BudgetingCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pren

3、tice Hall3Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall4 coming up with proposals for investment projects evaluating them deciding which ones to accept and which to rejectCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall5Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Pu

4、blishing as Prentice Hall6Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall7Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall8Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall9Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall10Copyr

5、ight 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall11Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall12Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall13Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall14NPV of a ProjectDiscout10%YearFlo

6、wPVCum_PV0-1000-1000-10001450409-5912350289-3023250188-1144150102-115503120NPV20 Do Project DCF PaybackCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall15NPV of a ProjectDiscout15%YearFlowPVCum_PV0-1000-1000-10001450391-6092350265-3443250164-180415086-9455025-69NPV-69 Dont Do Projec

7、tCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall16NPV of a ProjectDiscout11.04%YearFlowPVCum_PV0-1000-1000-10001450405-5952350284-3113250183-128415099-30550300NPV0 Indifferent Internal Rate of ReturnCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall17Copyright 2009

8、 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall18Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall19NPV as a Function of Discount Rate-200-150-100-500501001502002500%5%10%15%20%Discount RateNPVCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall20Copyright 2009 Pe

9、arson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall21Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall22Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall23Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall24Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publis

10、hing as Prentice Hall25Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall26Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall27Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall28Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall29Copyr

11、ight 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall30Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall31Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall32Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall33Copyright 2009 Pearson Education,

12、 Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall34Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall35Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall36Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall37Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice

13、 Hall38Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall39Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall40Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall41Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall42Copyright 2009 Pearso

14、n Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall43Tax rate40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate0.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Start3,100,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =1236Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capi

15、tal movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,000ExpensesFixed Costs (cash)3,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,100Variable costs15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating Pro

16、fit1,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,500Taxes600600600600600600600Net Profit900900900900900900900Operating CF1,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,300Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3003,500PV(NCF)-5000113098385574364

17、65621316Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall44Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall45Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of capital15.00%Tax rate40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate2.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth-3.00%Fixed St

18、art3,100,000Fixed Growth8.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =-797Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00019,78819,57819,37119,16518,96218,761ExpensesFixed Cost

19、s (cash)3,1003,3483,6163,9054,2184,5554,919Variable costs15,00014,84114,68414,52814,37414,22214,071Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating Profit1,5001,199879538174-214-629Taxes60048035121570-86-252Net Profit900719527323104-129-377Operating CF1,3001,11992772350427123Working cap move2200-2,200Inve

20、stment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,3001,1199277235042712,223PV(NCF)-50001130846610413251117836Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall46Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall47Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of cap

21、ital25.00%Tax rate40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate0.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Start3,100,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =-429Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Wo

22、rking Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,000ExpensesFixed Costs (cash)3,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,100Variable costs15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating Profit1,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,50

23、0Taxes600600600600600600600Net Profit900900900900900900900Operating CF1,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,300Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3001,3003,500PV(NCF)-50001040832666532426341734Was 15%Copyright 2009 Pearson

24、Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall48Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of capital15.00%Tax rate30.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate0.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Start3,100,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =1860Start working

25、capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,000ExpensesFixed Costs (cash)3,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,100Variable costs15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000D

26、epreciation400400400400400400400Operating Profit1,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,5001,500Taxes450450450450450450450Net Profit1,0501,0501,0501,0501,0501,0501,050Operating CF1,4501,4501,4501,4501,4501,4501,450Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,4

27、501,4501,4501,4501,4501,4503,650PV(NCF)-5000126110969538297216271372Was 40%Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall49Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of capital15.00%Tax rate40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate5.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Star

28、t3,100,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =2885Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00021,00022,05023,15324,31025,52626,802ExpensesFixed Costs

29、(cash)3,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,100Variable costs15,00015,75016,53817,36418,23319,14420,101Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating Profit1,5001,7502,0132,2882,5782,8813,200Taxes6007008059151,0311,1531,280Net Profit9001,0501,2081,3731,5471,7291,920Operating CF1,3001,4501,6081,7731,9472,1292,

30、320Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,3001,4501,6081,7731,9472,1294,520PV(NCF)-500011301096105710149689201699Was 0%Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall50Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of capital15.00%Tax rat

31、e40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate0.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Start3,100,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent85.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =-3757Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Capital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,2

32、00,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,000ExpensesFixed Costs (cash)3,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,1003,100Variable costs17,00017,00017,00017,00017,00017,00017,000Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating Profit-500-500-500-500-500-500-500Taxes-200-200-200-200-

33、200-200-200Net Profit-300-300-300-300-300-300-300Operating CF100100100100100100100Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001001001001001001002,300PV(NCF)-5000877666575043865Was 75%Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hal

34、l51Assumptions(Table in $000)Cost of capital15.00%Tax rate40.00%Unit sales in year 1$4,000Sales growth rate0.00%Unit price$5,000Unit Price Growth0.00%Fixed Start3,500,000Fixed Growth0.00%Variable pcent75.00%Depreciation schedule400,000NPV =237Start working capt2,200,000Investment schedule2,800,000Ca

35、pital movements sch0Dividend1,000,000Working Cap Sch2,200,000Year01234567CF ForecastSales revenue20,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,00020,000ExpensesFixed Costs (cash)3,5003,5003,5003,5003,5003,5003,500Variable costs15,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,00015,000Depreciation400400400400400400400Operating P

36、rofit1,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,1001,100Taxes440440440440440440440Net Profit660660660660660660660Operating CF1,0601,0601,0601,0601,0601,0601,060Working cap move2200-2,200Investment in P&E2,800000000Invest CF5,000000000-2,200Net CF-5,0001,0601,0601,0601,0601,0601,0603,260PV(NCF)-50009228026976065

37、274581226Was $3,100,000Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall52Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall53Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall54Sales UnitsNet CF OperationsNPV Project2000200000500502230005500001884708

38、360410030090400013000001235607500020500004355922600028000007476237Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall55NPV v. Discount Rate$3,000$2,000$1,000$0$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,0000%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%RateNPV $000Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Pu

39、blishing as Prentice Hall56Sensitivity of Project to Sale Volume$500,000$0$500,000$1,000,000$1,500,000$2,000,000$2,500,000$3,000,000$2,000$2,500$3,000$3,500$4,000$4,500$5,000$5,500$6,000Sales (Units)Net CF from OperationsCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall57NPV Project

40、$6,000,000$4,000,000$2,000,000$0$2,000,000$4,000,000$6,000,000$8,000,000$10,000,000200025003000350040004500500055006000Sales (Units)NPVCopyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall58Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall59Copyright 2009 Pearson Educat

41、ion, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall60Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall61Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall62Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall63Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Pren

42、tice Hall64Schedule of Bdella Price & MaintAgePriceMaintIntang020,0000116,00001,000212,8001,000800310,2401,100048,1921,210-50054,0961,331-60062,0481,464-84071,0241,611-1,17685121,772-1,64692561,949-2,305101282,144-3,227Discount5.00%Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Ha

43、ll65Copyright 2009 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall66Schedule of Bdella Price & MaintAgePriceMaintIntangPV_PricePV_Maint PV_Intang PV_Proj020,000020,000116,00001,00015,2380952-3,810212,8001,00080011,610907726-7,619310,2401,10008,8469500-11,33448,1921,210-5006,740995-411-14,84654,0961