Leadtime的精益思考：安全时间的迷思

1、Lean thinking of L/T: The confusion of safety timeLead time的精益思考：安全时间的迷思A good definition of a problem, weve half solved it already. -John Dewey良好的定义问题，问题已经解决了一半。 -约翰·杜威During daily discussing, it is easy to make consensus with shorting Lead time, but a lot of friends feel confused for complex

2、holistic problem and transfer them to me .From this article, I want to discuss some hot subjects. 日常和大家的讨论中，发现大家对于要缩短Lead time都非常认可，但对于整体的复杂问题存在比较多的困惑，并将这些疑问转给了我，本文开始，我希望能和大家一起探讨其中一些引起大家热烈争论的问题。Firstly, Id like to summarize the conclusions from the first two articles:1. Our core problem is we dont h

3、ave DCE（Decisive competitive edge, it means we must meet one or more significant sustainable customers demand beyond competitors very much and it is difficult to copy in a short time.）to obtain orders continuously. 2. Rapid delivery ability is DCE, it will be obvious appeal to any market segment.3.

4、We must cut down Lead time, we can make significant improvement in short term and use minimum investment. 首先我先总结一下上两篇文章的主要结论：1、 我们面临的核心问题是：没有决定性的竞争优势来持续获得订单。2、 项目的快交优势是决定性的竞争优势，对任何细分市场都会有明显的吸引力。3、 建立快交优势必须要缩短Lead time，我们可以在极小的投资的前提下短期内取得巨大成绩。By cutting down Lead time, we face not only one component

5、or on projects lead time, but a systematic problem, There is a broad consensus that if we want to improve the performance of our company we have to take a system approach. Then I want to discuss the systematic improve direction with all colleagues. 在缩短Lead time的道路上，我们面对的不是某个部套和某个项目的Lead time，而是一个系统问

6、题。广泛的共识是想提高我们公司的绩效应该用系统的解决方法。接下来和大家探讨一下Lead time的系统改善方向。We all know, our product need to go through a lot of dependent work station, one finished, last can be started, every process will add value till final delivery. In order to demonstrate it, I want to take an example. If we regard lead time as a

7、ggregated score of relay race, thus every process likes the race player. To achieve good results we have to do three things:1. Every player should be good enough2. Every player have same goal: the shortest aggregate time.3. Every player do they best to contribute to the common goal. 我们都知道，产品要经过一系列相互

8、依存的工序才能完成加工，每个工序都会使产品增值，最终完成产品的交付。为了要示范，我来举一个例子。如果把产品的Lead time看作接力赛的总成绩的话，那么各工序就相当于各个运动员。要取得好成绩必须做到三件事： 第一、每个运动员有足够的个人能力； 第二、每个运动员的目标要一致：总时间最短； 第三、每个运动员都要发挥最大能力为整体目标做贡献；Please think about why not let each player run 400m separately, and then add each score together?请大家思考一下，为什么4×400m接力赛不让4位选手分别

9、跑400m，再让各自成绩相加呢？Every player has lap time, but each player does not care about the lap time, and just try their best to run for team goal. A player is slower, the next player quickly will win back some time, but everybody's speed is shared team, every player to make some contribution, the entire

10、 team will have better results. This is a cooperative spirit of sports. 接力赛中每位选手虽然都有单圈成绩，但每位选手并不关心单圈成绩，而只是尽力的快跑，为了团队共同目标奋力拼搏。一位选手慢些，下一位选手快些就会争取回来一些时间，而大家的速度是团队共享的，每一位选手多做出些贡献，整个团队就会有更好的成绩。这是一种合作的体育精神。Unlike, let each player run 400m and the assessment is lap time respectively. If one player is not s

11、lowest one, how much odds that run as quickly as possible? Very low! If each player cannot share their speed, so it is easy to form a challenge culture. 而让各位选手分别跑400m，如果考核大家的是各自的单圈时间。如果其中一位选手不是最慢的，他能更努力快跑的几率能有多大呢？ 非常低！如果每位选手不能共享各自的速度，那么很容易形成一种指责的文化。Attention： The really important is the relay baton,

12、 not the race player. 注意：真正重要的是接力棒，而不是运动员！QC master Dr. Deming pointed out in <Out of the Crisis >:” according to my experience, about 94% of the problems from the system inherent reasons, 6% is special because of abnormal cause, it is hard to get good result that improved in the noise.” 品管大师戴

13、明博士在转危为安中指出：“根据我的经验，94%的问题来源于系统固有原因，6%才是异常造成的特殊因，在特殊因的杂音中改善很难得到效果“。Scanning our system model base on relay race inspiration: if Lead time management is relay race forms? If not, then we did not find the system reason and only improve in the noise. 我们根据接力赛的启示来审视：我们的Lead time的系统模型是接力赛形式的管理吗？如果不是，那么说明我

14、们没有找到系统因，而只是在杂音中优化。Standish Group, a famous investigation institution in US, show the research result in project management industry in 2000: the average Lead time beyond the original plan of 63%, the project has been completed 45% average costs exceed the budget, the project has been completed 64%

15、did not meet the delivery. 美国著名的研究机构Standish Group在2000年对项目管理产业所进行的调查发现：平均Lead time超出原计划的63%，已完成的项目平均成本超出预算45%，已完成的项目64%未符合交期。Not only our company, almost all project management enterprises in the world will face the same problem, the most famous example of that is the stadium that was in Montreal f

16、or the Olympic, they gave up the roof. Why most projects cannot be controlled in budget, consistent with the initial plan to finish on time? Most participants in the project management staff will say: too many customers change or alteration in the design, quality issues, supplier tardiness or qualit

17、y problem, priority too much controversy or commitment of resources often shortage etc. 不只是我们公司，世界上几乎所有的项目管理型企业都会面临相同的问题，最著名的例子是在蒙特利尔，为奥林匹克运动会而盖的体育馆放弃了屋顶。为什么大部分项目无法在预算内，符合初始计划准时完成？大部分参与项目管理的人员会说：太多的客户变更或设计变更，品质问题，供应商拖期或质量问题，优先顺序太多争议，或承诺的资源经常会短缺等等。Careful analysis of these problems has a characterist

18、ic, that is: Everything is not as we expected. Project management is called Uncertainty. 仔细分析这些问题都有一个特性，那就是：一切都不在我们预料之中。项目管理称为不确定性（Uncertainty）因素。Yes, any project management enterprises have a huge magnitude of uncertainty. The question is: dont we know it exists? Of course we know, so how to deal w

19、ith our uncertainty? Two roads, one is to eliminate all fluctuations, but it requires a huge investment and it is difficult to be effective in a short time; another way is to set up the safety time to deal with the uncertainty factors, and programming the commitment of the project Lead time, project

20、 management call it : Risk Assessment. 没错，任何项目管理型企业的不确定性都很大。问题是：我们难道不知道它的存在吗？当然知道，那么我们怎么应对 不确定因素呢？两条路，一是我们消除所有的波动，但需要巨大的投入，且在短期内难以见效；另一条路是增加安全时间（Safety time）来应对不确定性因素的发生，并以此规划出可以承诺的项目周期，项目管理称为风险评估（Risk assessment）。Setting up safety time, avoids the possible risk, why is hard to reach a commitment? W

21、here is the safe time effect? What if this system management method we used leads to safety time wasted, unable to deal with uncertainty? If it is, we can think about the system approach, let the viable commitment becomes true! 增加了安全时间，避开可能的风险，为什么还是很难达成承诺？安全时间的效果何在？会不会是我们所用的系统管理方法造成了安全时间被浪费掉，以致于无法应对

22、不确定性因素。如果是，我们就可以思考系统的改善方案，将不可行的承诺变成可行！Each task will finish on time then the whole project will finish on time？It is right as a result, but we must challenge it if is as an assumption.试想这个问题：项目的每个任务都准时完成，整个项目就准时完成吗？如果作为结果来说是没有问题的，但是如果作为假设，我们需要挑战一下。We tend to judge actions and decisions not according

23、 to the impact on the whole picture even though that is what we want to do, we tend to judge it according to the local impact. What we really want is the whole project finish on time ,not the each task. But how are we going to do? Setting up OTD examination in every process, an assumption to do so,

24、which is to ensure that each task is completed on time is the best way to make the whole project is completed on time. 我们在评估行为和决策时，是根据它们对局部的影响，而不是对整体的影响。我们真正希望的是整个项目准时完成，而不是各个任务。但我们现在怎么做的呢？每一个工位都设有OTD考核，这么做就隐含了一个假设，那就是确保每项任务准时完成是让整个项目准时完成最好的方法。Change Safety time by planning float or schedule floatMo

25、st of peoples behave is base how to measure them, since the KPI is OTD and the cost of each task, the people will focus on each task OTD and cost. As a manager, on one hand he will charge of the on time delivery of self-department, face of uncertainty he will put the safety time in his task. But on

26、the other hand he will continue to reduce costs, so he should cut down safety time, so that every manager is faced with a huge conflict. 绝大多数人是依据绩效考核行事的，既然主要的KPI是每个任务的OTD和成本，绝大多数人都会关注各自任务的OTD和成本。对于一个管理者，一方面要对份内任务的交期负责，面对不确定性因素，他会把安全时间添加在自己的任务内。但另一方面他还要持续地降低成本，所以他应该删减安全时间，这样每个管理者就面临着一个巨大的冲突： If the a

27、ctual delivery can be done earlier than the commitment, as a manager, will be finished ahead of time? This time finished earlier, next time will have safety time enough? If the safety time is not enough, the next still can reach the delivery commitment? 如果实际可以比交期更早完成的情况下，作为一个管理者，会提前完成吗？这次提前完成了，下次的安全

28、时间还会足够吗？如果安全时间不足够，下次还能达成交期的承诺吗？Attention! This mentality is not negative, is very responsible work attitude, as a responsible person for the work, must reach has pledged to do. In order to always reach the commitment, even if will have the ability to be finished ahead of time, the safety time still

29、to be wasted. 注意! 这种心态并不是消极的，恰恰是对工作非常负责的心态，作为一个对工作有责任感的人，必须要达成已承诺的事情。为了每次都达成承诺，即使可以有能力可以提前完成，也会把安全时间浪费掉。 In fact, this is a very common phenomenon, it has another name: Parkinson's Law, the task in an organization will delay to the last moment. 事实上，这是一种非常普遍的现象，它有另一个名字：帕金森定律，组织中工作的完成会拖延到它所能允许的最后一

30、刻。Due to Parkinson's Law, the safety time of each task will be wasted. The odds of each task ahead of schedule may become very low, because of uncertainties, delays odds may become very high. 因为帕金森定律的存在，每个步骤的安全时间都会被浪费掉。相当于每一个任务提前完成的可能变得很低，由于不确定性因素的存在，拖延的可能变得很高。Safety time should be used to prote

31、ct the whole project, not the individual tasks! 安全时间应该用来保护整个项目，而非各个任务！Project Lead time improvement direction is: We must keep safety time available. Try to cut the safety time of each task to effectively resist the Parkinson phenomenon, the safety time will be transferred at the end of the project, let each task closely connected, each resourcing share the common safety time. At the same time we need to change the KPI fro