可口可乐公司财务报表分析

1、可口可乐公司 财务报表分析 王冠男 1 12021/8/2The Framework公司简介 (Introduction)战略分析 (Strategy Analysis)账目分析 (Account Analysis)信用分析 (Credit Analysis)财务分析 (Financial Analysis)前景分析 (Prospective Analysis)2 22021/8/2Introduction可口可乐公司介绍可口可乐的诞生与发展可口可乐的市场现况根据一项20世纪的调查，全世界最流行的三个词分别是：上帝、她、可口可乐3 32021/8/2Coca-Colas Products4 4

2、2021/8/2销售收入 (Sales)0500010000150002000025000300003500040000FY2006FY2007FY2008FY2009FY2010销售收入5 52021/8/2第四回合第三回合第二回合第一回合 股市表现旗鼓相当 各选择麦当劳与肯德基作为战略合 作伙伴 百事与可口可乐的广告大战 百事根本不是可口可乐的对手 With Its Competitor-PepsiCo6 62021/8/2市场份额 (Market Share)7 72021/8/2软饮料制造业 (Soft Drink Industry)酒精含量低于0.5( 质量比)的天然的或人工配制的饮

3、料，又称清凉饮料、无醇饮料溶解香精、香料、色素等溶剂或乳酸饮料生产过程的副产物8 82021/8/2波特五力模型Porters Five Forces Model9 92021/8/2行业分析 (Industrial Analysis)行业利润率潜在竞争者进入的能力 (Threat of new entrants)行业内竞争者现在的竞争能力 (Rivalry among existing firms)替代品的替代能力 (Threat of substitute products)供应商的议价能力(Bargaining power of suppliers)购买者的议价能力 (Bargainin

4、g power of buyers)10102021/8/2态势分析法 SWOT SWOT AnalysisAnalysis11 112021/8/2StrengthsWeaknessesThreatsOpportunities汇率风险水质和水量消费者喜好正在改变行业领先地位健全的销售网络造成肥胖不利健康产品召回事件(12/2009)积极进军发展中的市场收购北美CCE着重销量和价格的结合12122021/8/2账目分析 - - Beneish ModelRatioMeaning201020092008DSRIIndicate revenue inflation.1.04021.25360.84

5、15GMIAssess the gross margin sustainability.1.00571.00270.9937AQIImply capitalization of cost1.34990.87490.8905SGISuggest the companys growth character.1.13320.97011.1070DEPIShow the possibility of change of depreciation rate.1.21441.00410.9835SGAIHint the abnormal deferred cost.1.05680.99231.0007LV

6、GIEvaluate the change of risk.1.15680.99151.0204TATAPositively related to the likelihood of manipulation.-0.0237-0.2039-0.035413132021/8/2M-Score201020092008M-Score-2.3271-3.2719-2.7523Normsdist(M)1.00%0.05%0.30%M =-4.840 + 0.920 x DSRI + 0.528 x GMI + 0.404 x AQI + 0.892 x SGI + 0.115 x DEPI - 0.17

7、2 x SAI - 0.327 x LVGI + 4.679 x TATA14142021/8/2信用分析 - - Altman Z-score ModelCoefficientRatios (KO)Score (KO)Ratios (PEP)Score (PEP)(X1) NWC/assets1.20.0420.0510.0250.030(X2) Retained earnings/Total assets1.40.2750.3850.2430.340(X3) EBIT/Total assets3.30.1160.3820.1430.473(X4) MV of equity/BV of to

8、tal liability0.63.5972.1582.1801.308(X5)Sales/Total assets10.4820.4820.8490.849Z-Score3.4583.000Z= 1.2 (X1) + 1.4 (X2) + 3.3 (X3) + 0.6 (X4) + 1.0 (X5)15152021/8/2财务分析的两个工具(Financial Analysis) 比率分析比率分析 (Ratio Analysis) 现金现金流分析流分析 (Cash Flow Analysis)主要分主要分析损益表析损益表 (income statement) 与资产负债表与资产负债表 (Ba

9、lance Sheet)主主要分析现金流量表要分析现金流量表 (Cash Flow Statement)净利润率ROE资产周转率杠杆效应可持续增长率16162021/8/2分解ROE ROE decompositionKOKOKOPEPPEPPEP Year201020092008201020092008Net Profit Margin (ROS) (%)33.6322.0218.1810.9313.7511.89* Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.22= Return on assets (ROA) (%)19.4315.3013.8611.7015

10、.6814.56* Financial leverage2.181.971.982.852.632.41= Return on equity (%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.1517 172021/8/2ROE 第一个驱动因素净利润率 (Net Profit Margin)Profitability RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Gross profit margin (%)63.86 64.22 64.39 54.74 53.51 52.95 EBITDA margin (%)28.17 30.

11、55 30.28 20.92 22.39 19.60 NOPAT margin (%)24.06 26.56 26.44 16.90 18.61 16.03 Net profit margin (%)33.63 22.02 18.18 10.93 13.75 11.89 18182021/8/2ROE 第二个驱动因素资产周转率(Asset Turnover)Assets Management RatiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Operating WC/Sales0.12 0.12 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.01 Net n

12、on-current assets/Sales0.42 0.31 0.26 0.33 0.29 0.27 Operating WC turnover8.36 8.00 25.15 82.27 86.29 92.22 Net non-current assets turnover2.89 3.47 3.80 3.65 3.55 3.78 Trade Receivables turnover8.58 9.05 9.97 10.57 9.29 9.54 Days receivables42.55 40.33 36.70 34.45 39.18 38.17 Inventories turnover5.

13、07 4.88 5.16 8.74 7.82 8.46 Days inventories71.95 74.74 70.91 41.64 46.54 43.03 Trade payables turnover1.67 1.75 1.73 2.83 2.46 2.59 Days payables218.01 208.56 211.71 128.73 147.80 140.37 Asset turnover0.580.690.761.071.141.2219192021/8/2ROE 第三个驱动因素杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)Liquidity ratiosKOKOKOPEPPE

14、PPEPYear201020092008201020092008Current ratio1.17 1.28 0.94 1.11 1.44 1.23 Quick ratio0.85 0.95 0.62 0.80 1.00 0.79 Cash ratio0.61 0.67 0.38 0.40 0.47 0.26 Operating cash flow ratio0.52 0.60 0.58 0.53 0.78 0.80 Financial leverage2.181.971.982.852.632.4120202021/8/2ROE 第三个驱动因素杠杆效应(Financial Leverage)

15、Debt and coverage ratiosKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Liabilities-to-equity1.330.920.942.171.281.97Debt-to-equity (%)74.7746.7944.65115.9345.0967.96Net debt-to-equity (%)38.5710.4420.7886.2721.3849.15Debt-to-capital (%)42.7831.8730.8753.6931.0840.46Net debt-to-net capital (%)23.708.7816

16、.5435.9216.3124.53Interest coverage (earning based)20.3625.9717.9810.1021.2722.34Interest coverage (cash flow based)17.2629.8122.0112.4523.4127.9821212021/8/2可持续增长率(Sustainable Growth Rate)Sustainable growth rateKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008ROE (%)42.3330.1527.5133.3641.2535.15Dividend

17、 payout ratio (%)34.4055.6160.6347.9146.5550.35Sustainable growth rate (%)27.7713.3810.8317.3822.0517.4522222021/8/2现金流分析(Cash Flow Analysis)Cash flow analysisKOKOKOPEPPEPPEPYear201020092008201020092008Cash From Operations953281867571844867966999Cash From Investing Activities-4405 -4149-2363 -7668-2

18、401-2667Cash from Financing Activities-3631 -1717-46001220-2516-3178Net Changes in Cash14962320608200018791154Opening Cash & Cash Equivalents70214701409339432064910Total Cash Flow85177021470159433943206423232021/8/2Common size Income Statement200820092010 averageRevenuesales100.00% 100.00% 100.0

19、0% 100.00%Cost & Expensecost of sales35.61%35.78%36.14%35.84%general & administration expense34.85%34.42%36.42%35.23%Research & Development0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Depreciation3.11%3.24%3.38%3.24%Operating Income26.44%26.56%24.06%25.69%InterestInterest expense1.37%1.15%2.09%1.53%Foreign Excha

20、nge Losses (Gains)0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%Net Non-Operating Losses (Gains)1.78%-3.45%-18.59%-6.75%Income before tax23.29%28.87%40.56%30.90%Income tax5.11%6.58%6.79%6.16%Net income18.18%22.28%33.77%24.74%common share7.24%7.43%6.53%7.07%Earnings per share0.01%0.01%0.01%0.01%Dividends paid11.02%12.26%11.58

21、%11.62%Retained earnings7.16%10.02%22.18%13.12%24242021/8/2Common Size Balance Sheet200820092010 Averagecash & cash equivalents15.59%29.73%32.28%25.87%account receivable9.67%12.13%12.61%11.47%inventories6.85%7.60%7.55%7.33%total current assets38.12%56.63%61.45%52.07%fixed assetsnet fixed assets2

22、5.78%30.85%41.93%32.86%Good will12.61%13.63%33.22%19.82%intangible assets22.82%23.35%27.31%24.49%other assets61.21%67.83%102.46%77.17%total long-term assets88.73%100.42%146.19%111.78%total assets126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%accounts payable19.42%21.48%25.23%22.04%current debt20.45%21.94%26.70%23.03%t

23、otal current liabilities40.66%44.28%52.70%45.88%long-term debt8.71%16.32%39.98%21.67%other long-term liabilities12.19%14.67%25.78%17.55%total long-term liabilities20.90%30.99%65.76%39.22%total liabilities61.56%75.27%118.47%85.10%common stock &additional paid in capital27.69%30.39%31.14%29.74%ret

24、ained earnings36.39%49.64%57.14%47.72%total shareholders equity65.29%81.79%89.17%78.75%total liabilities & shareholders equity126.84%157.05%207.64%163.85%25252021/8/2共同比财务报表分析对CCE 的兼并 为$12.3b ($3.4b in equity & $8.8b in debt)可口可乐通过增加留存收益来减小公司杠杆，偿还收购所产生的长期债务收购所产生的溢价被记录在商誉中导致公司长期资产的增长非经营收入=兼并所

25、带来的债权收入+公司将挪威和瑞典的包装生产基地销售给CCE所得收入($0.8b)可口可乐公司通过增长长期债务的方式募集资金收购26262021/8/2公司经营财务预测假设AssumptionsClick to add Title每年的年销售额增长率保持过去5年的均值公司会调整其资本结构到收购前水平假设报表中的数据都与年销售额有较稳定的关系公司在预测年限内稳定持续经营预测的数据均根据与销售额比值的平均水平27272021/8/2Forecasted Income Statement201120122013Revenuesales38704.03542655.03947009.371Cost &a

26、mp; Expensecost of sales13872.5815288.72816849.439G&A Expense13634.02415025.81916559.692Research & Development000Depreciation1255.85961384.06091525.3492Operating Income9941.570310956.43112074.89InterestInterest expense593.9611654.59412721.41672FX Losses (Gains)000Net Non-Operating Losses (Ga

27、ins)-2613.408-2880.191-3174.208Income before tax11961.01713182.02814527.682Income tax2384.1762627.55862895.7863Net income9576.841410554.46911631.896common share2734.50163013.64633321.2868EPS4.16353464.58855855.05697Dividends paid4498.4294957.63985463.728Retained earnings5078.41245596.82936168.167628

28、282021/8/2Forecasted Results05000100001500020000250003000035000400004500050000200820092010201120122013RevenueNet incomeRetained earnings29292021/8/2Forecasted Balance Sheet201120122013cash & cash equivalents10011.09111033.04812159.329account receivable4439.85924893.0915392.5899inventories2836.76

29、423126.34813445.4935total current assets20151.44622208.55624475.66fixed assetsnet fixed assets12716.73614014.89215445.567Good will7670.95128454.02099317.0284intangible assets9479.956610447.69411514.221other assets29867.64432916.60736276.816total long-term assets43263.547679.94552547.233total assets6

30、3414.94669888.50177022.893accounts payable8531.84039402.791810362.652current debt8912.96069822.817810825.555total current liabilities17756.77219569.42721567.123long-term debt8387.38219243.586910187.195other long-term liabilities6791.65487484.96388249.0475total long-term liabilities15179.03716728.55118436.243total liabilities32935.80836297.97840003.365common stock &additional paid in capital11510.85312685.9113980.919retained earnings18470.52920356.