外文翻译--FDI和贸易对经济增长的影响：来自发展中国家的实证分析

1、中文3415字本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Impact of foreign direct investment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 处： American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 86 Issue 3 作 者： Makki, Shiva S.,Somwaru, Agapi 原 文：IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ANDTRADE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH: EVIDENC

2、EFROM DEVELOPING COUNTRIESForeign direct investment (FDI) and trade are often seen as important catalysts for economic growth in the developing countries. FDI is an important vehicle of technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. FDI also stimulates domestic investment and

3、facilitates improvements in human capital and institutions in the host countries. International trade is also known to be an instrument of economic growth (Romer). Trade facilitates more efficient production of goods and services by shifting production to countries that have comparative advantage in

4、 producing Them. Even though past studies show that FDI and trade have a positive impact on economic growth, the size of such impact may vary across countries depending on the level of human capital, domestic investment, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability, and trade policies. The literature con

5、tinues to debate the role of FDI and trade in economic growth as well as the importance of economic and institutional developments in fostering FDI and trade.This article analyzes the role of FDI and trade in promoting economic growth across selected developing countries and the interaction among FD

6、I, trade, and economic growth. We examine data from sixty-six developing countries over the last three decades. Our results suggest that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment are important sources of economic growth for developing countries. We find a strong positive interaction between

7、 FDI and trade in advancing economic growth. Our results also show that FDI stimulates domestic investment. The contribution of FDI to economic growth is enhanced by its positive interaction with human capital and sound macroeconomic policies.Methodology and Data Our econometric model is derived fro

8、m a production function in which the level of a countrys productivity depends on FDI, trade, domestic investment, human capital, and initial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The model is based on endogenous growth theory, in the tradition of Balasubramanyam, Salisu, and Sapsford and Borenszt

9、ein, Gregorio, and Lee, where FDI contributes to economic growth directly through new technologies and other inputs as well as indirectly through improving human capital, infrastructure, and institutions. To assess empirically the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth, we specify the following

10、 basic formulation:g=a+b1FDI+b2TRD+b3HC+b4K+b5G0 +c1FDITRD+c2FDIHC+c3FDIK （1） +d1TRI+d2TX+d3GC+ewhere g is the per capita GDP growth rate; TRD, the trade (exports plus imports) of goods and services; HC, the stock of human capital; K, the domestic capital investment; G0, the initial GDP(initial stoc

11、k); IRT, the inflation rate; TX, the tax on income, profits, and capital gains in the host country expressed as percentage of current revenue; and GC is government consumption. The variables FDI, TRD, K, GC are measured as ratios to GDP. We also account for interaction of FDI with trade and domestic

12、 investment, in addition to human capital. Past empirical studies have indicated that FDI, trade, human capital, and domestic investment have a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. We expect the estimated coefficients for these variables to be positive. We also expect positive

13、 interactions between FDI and trade and FDI and domestic capital investment in promoting economic growth. The stock of human capital in a host country is critical for absorbing foreign knowledge and an important determinant of whether potential spillovers will be realized. We postulate not only a po

14、sitive relationship between FDI and the GDP growth rate but also a positive interaction between FDI and human capital in advancing economic growth. The application of advanced technologies embodied in FDI requires a sufficient level of human capital. That is, the higher the level of human capital in

15、 a host country, the higher the effect of FDI on the countrys economic growth. One of the key questions regarding FDI and economic growth is: “What is the interaction between FDI and domestic investment”? As argued before, FDI is an important vehicle for the transfer of capital, technology, and know

16、ledge to host countries, thereby generating high-growth opportunities. In practice, however, the growth-enhancing impact of FDI depends critically on the absorptive capacity of a host country and whether FDI “crowds out” its domestic investment. Thus, an important question to be addressed is: “What

17、is the extent to which FDI substitutes for or complements domestic investment”? In our empirical model, we include FDI and domestic investment separately as well as an interaction term between FDI and domestic investment (FDIK). A positive coefficient for the interaction term would suggest that FDI

18、and domestic investment (K) reinforce (complement) each other in advancing economic growth. The initial GDP, measured in terms of constant U.S. dollars, controls for preexisting economic and institutional conditions in the host economy. We expect the initial GDP (expressed in logarithms) to be negat

19、ively related with GDP growth rates. The inflation rate is a key indicator of fiscal and monetary policies of a country. A lower inflation rate should mean a better climate for investment, trade, and, therefore, economic growth. Government consumption and tax on income, profits, and capital gains ar

20、e proxies for institutions and infrastructure in the host countries. Since our objective is to quantify the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth, we focus on developing Countries. Data for our analysis are obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) database. However, we limit our an

21、alysis to 1971 through 2000 because the flow of FDI to most developing countries began in 1970s. All variables represent the average over the following decades: 19711980, 19811990, and 19912000.We estimate a system of three equations, where the dependent variables are the mean values of per capita G

22、DP growth rates in each decade. We estimate the system of equations using the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method as well as instrumental variable (three-stage least squares, TSLS) approach. The SUR estimation allows for different error variances in each equation and for correlation of these

23、 errors across equations, while the instrumental variable technique allows us to overcome potential biases induced by endogeneity problems between FDI and economic growth.Empirical Results The purpose of our empirical investigation is to analyze the effects of FDI and trade on economic growth and to

24、 examine how FDI interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investment in advancing economic growth in developing countries. We control for preexisting economic conditions by including initial GDP as one of the explanatory variables. We also account for differences in macroeconomic policies i

25、n the host countries by including variables, such as inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption.Table 1 presents the econometric results. Regressions 1.1, 1.2, and 1.3, different variants of equation (1) above are estimated using the SUR method. Regression 1.1 is our basic specification

26、with explanatory variables of FDI, trade, human capital, domestic investment, and initial GDP. Regression 1.2 extends 1.1 to include interaction of FDI with trade, human capital, and domestic investment. Regression 1.3 builds on regression 1.2 by controlling for inflation rate, tax burden, and gover

27、nment consumption. Our results show that most coefficients have the expected signs, particularly in specification 1.3. The estimated R2 are generally low but reasonable given the cross sectional nature of the data used.Regression 1.1 reveals that FDI and trade have a positive impact on economic grow

28、th after controlling for human capital, domestic investment, and initial income. The estimated coefficient for FDI is positive and statistically significant while the estimated coefficient for trade is not statistically significant. Since the coefficient of FDI is larger than the coefficient of trad

29、e, it indicates the differential impact of FDI in the host countrys economic growth. The coefficient for human capital is positive, implying that human capital contributes positively to economic growth (significant only at a confidence level of 88%). The coefficients for domestic investment and init

30、ial income are not statistically significant. Including interactions between FDI and trade, FDI and human capital, and FDI and domestic investment not only improves the overall performance of the estimation but also allows us to capture their interaction effects on economic growth.In regression 1.2,

31、 the interaction of FDI and trade yields a positive and statistically significant coefficient while the effects of FDI and trade, by themselves, are positive but not statistically significant. Regression 1.2 also reveals that the FDI interacts positively with domestic investment in advancing economi

32、c growth. The estimated coefficient for domestic investment is positive and statistically significant at a confidence level of 90%. The estimated coefficients indicate that host countries benefit positively both from FDI, itself, and through FDIs positive interaction with trade and domestic investme

33、nt. The interaction between FDI and human capital, although positive, is not statistically significant. Regression 1.3 includes additional variables to control for macroeconomic policies and institutional stability that could have a significant impact on FDI and trade and, thus, on economic growth.

34、Recent literature indicates that FDI is greatly influenced by host country policies, such as monetary, fiscal, and open market policies. We include inflation rates, tax income, and government consumption. The results of regression 1.3 reveal that FDI and trade contribute positively to economic growt

35、h, but the estimated coefficients are not statistically significant. The stock of human capital and domestic investment, on the other hand, has positive and statistically significant coefficients. The results also indicate that FDI positively interacts with trade, human capital, and domestic investm

36、ent. But only FDItrade interaction is statistically significant. This implies that FDI and trade complement each other in advancing growth rate of income in developing countries. This result is consistent with the idea that flow of advanced technology brought along by FDI can increase the growth rat

37、e of the host economy by interacting with that countrys trade.The diverse experiences from developing countries suggest that FDI and trade, by themselves, may not guarantee economic growth. A countrys economic growth is also affected by its macroeconomic policies and institutional stability. Sound m

38、acroeconomic policies and institutional stability are necessary preconditions for FDI-driven growth to materialize. The estimated coefficients for the three policy variablesinflation rate, government consumption, and tax on income, profits, and capital gainsare negative and statistically significant

39、. This implies that lowering the inflation rate, tax burden, and government consumption would promote economic growth. Lower inflation rates would indicate that the host countrys macroeconomic policies are stable and disciplined. Lower tax burden would make the investments, foreign and domestic, mor

40、e profitable. Decreasing the government consumption would leave more money for investments.FDI “Crowds-In” Domestic Investment One of the important questions raised in the literature is whether FDI augments a host countrys capital investment or crowds out domestic investment. Even though not statist

41、ically significant, the positive interaction between FDI and domestic investment in regression 1.3 implies that domestic investment is unlikely to be crowded out in developing countries. To further strengthen our argument, we estimate the contribution of FDI to domestic investment after controlling

42、for trade, human capital, initial income levels, and various macroeconomic policy variables. Regression 1.4 in table 1 presents the results of this estimation using the SUR method. The results indicate FDI has a positive effect on domestic investment, as the estimated coefficient is positive and sta

43、tistically significant. This positive relationship implies that FDI stimulates or crowds-in domestic investment. This finding is consistent with Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee. Even though trade, by itself, is not statistically significant, trade interacts positively with FDI on domestic investment.

44、 The estimated coefficient for the FDItrade interaction term is positive and significant at the 90% confidence level.Endogeneity ProblemsThe correlation between FDI and growth rate could arise from an endogenous determination of FDI. That is, FDI, itself, may be influenced by innovations in the stoc

45、hastic process governing growth rates (Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee). For example, market reforms in host countries could increase both GDP growth rates and the inflow of FDI simultaneously. In this case, the presence of correlation between FDI and the country-specific error term would bias the es

46、timated coefficients. The endogeneity problem is addressed by using the instrumental variables. One of the major problems with the instrumental variable estimation method is the difficulty in identifying instruments that are highly correlated with FDI (or trade) but not with the error term. We use l

47、agged values of FDI, lagged values of trade, and log value of total GDP as instruments in a TSLS method. The results of the TSLS model (reported in table 2, regressions 2.12.3) show that the instrumental variable estimation yields qualitatively similar results as those obtained by the SUR method. Th

48、e estimated coefficients on FDI and trade, by themselves, are positive but statistically insignificant. The interactive term of FDI and trade is positive and statistically significant. This alternative estimation also suggests that our results are robust.本科毕业论文外文翻译外文题目： Impact of foreign direct inve

49、stment and trade on economic growth:evidence from developing countries 出 处： American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 86 Issue 3 作 者： Makki, Shiva S.,Somwaru, Agapi 译 文：FDI和贸易对经济增长的影响：来自发展中国家的实证分析引言在发展中国家FDI和贸易常常被看作刺激经济增长的重要因素。FDI是技术从发达国家传递到发展中国家的载体。FDI还可以刺激东道国的国内投资，提高人力资本和制度的便利。国际贸易也一直是促进经济增

50、长的工具（罗默）。贸易使得具有比较优势的国家生产的产品和服务更便利的在国家间流通。尽管过去的研究证明FDI和对外贸易对经济增长有积极正相关的影响，但是这种影响的大小从国家整体来说取决于人力资本的水平、国内投资、基础设施、宏观经济稳定性和贸易政策。本文主要延续之前的讨论：关于FDI和贸易对经济增长的作用，经济和制度的发展在刺激FDI与贸易上的重要性。本文分析了FDI和贸易在经济增长中扮演的角色，通过选择66个发展中国家在最近三十年的数据分析FDI、贸易、经济增长之间的关系。实证研究结果表明FDI、贸易、人力资本、国内投资是发展中国家经济增长的重要因素。结果还表明在推进经济增长方面FDI与投资之间

51、存在积极正相关。同样，FDI刺激国内投资，但是FDI对经济增长的贡献可以由通FDI存在正相关性的人力资本、稳定的宏观经济政策来提高。2、 研究方法和数据本文采用的经济模型来源于生产函数，一个国家的生产力水平取决于FDI、贸易、国内投资、人力资本、最初的人均GDP。这个模型建立在内生增长理论上，在传统上Balasubramanyam, Salisu, and Sapsford and Borensztein, Gregorio, and Lee 的观点，FDI对经济增长的影响直接通过新技术和其他要素投入或者通过人力资本、基础设施、制度的提高。为了实证分析FDI和贸易对经济增长的作用，本文建立如下

52、的方程：g=a+b1FDI+b2TRD+b3HC+b4K+b5G0 +c1FDITRD+c2FDIHC+c3FDIK （1） +d1TRI+d2TX+d3GC+eg代表人均GDP增长率；TRD代表货物和服务的贸易（出口和进口）；HC表示人力资本存货；K表示国内资本投资；G0表示初期GDP；IRT表示通货膨胀率；TX是以当前收入的百分数，表示东道国的税收收入、利润、资本收益。GC表示政府消费。变量FDI、TRD、K、GC以比率表示GDP。本文还说明了FDI对贸易、国内投资、人力资本的关系。以前的实证分析证明国内投资对发展中国家的经济增长有积极影响。我们预测这些变量的估计系数是正数，同样预测FDI

53、和贸易、FDI和国内投资在促进经济增长方面有积极正相关作用。东道国的人力资本存量对吸收国外知识和实现潜在的FDI技术外溢至关重要。我们假定不仅FDI和GDP增长率存在积极正相关，而且在促进经济增长方面FDI和人力资本存在正互相关系。由FDI带来的先进技术的运用需要足够的人力资本，即东道国的人力资本水平越高，FDI对经济增长带来的效应越高。关于FDI和经济增长之间的关系有一个重要问题：FDI和国内投资存在什么关系？一直以来，FDI被作为资本、技术、知识转移到东道国的重要载体，因此带来刺激经济快速增长的机会。然而，实际上，FDI刺激增长的作用取决于东道国吸收资本的能力，还存在FDI是否“挤出”国内

54、投资的问题。因此，这个问题变成了：FDI在多大程度上替代或补充国内投资？在本文的实证模型中将FDI和国内投资分开，又将FDI和国内投资作为术语交汇（FDIK）来研究。FDIK的相关系数是正的话说明FDI和国内投资在促进经济增长时相互补充或加强。为控制东道国的现存的经济和制度条件以不变价格计量的初期GDP。我们预期以对数形式表示的初期GDP对GDP增长率表现负相关。通货膨胀率是一个国家财政和货币政策的重要指标。低的通货膨胀率意味着好的投资、贸易环境，因此有利于经济增长。政府消费和收入、利润、资本收益的税收代表东道国的制度和基础设施。因为我们的目的是量化FDI和贸易对经济增长的效应，本文集中研究发

55、展中国家。本文的数据来源于世界发展指标数据库（WDI）。本文之所以选择66个发展中国家1971年到2000的数据时因为大部分发展中国家的FDI流入始于1970s。所有的变量的数据都是以下三个阶段：19711980, 19811990, 19912000。本文运用三个等式组成的系统，因变量是每十年的人均GDP增长率。我们运用无相关回归（SUR）及工具变量（三步最小二乘法）来估计等式系统模型。SUR方法考虑到三个方程的不同误差变量及误差变量与等式的相关性，工具变量可以允许克服FDI和经济增长之间的内生性问题引起的潜在偏差。三、实证检验结果本文的目的是实证分析FDI和贸易对经济增长的效应，检验发展中国家FDI如何通过贸易、人力资本、国内投资在经济增长中发挥作用。把初期GDP作为其中一个解释变量控制现存经济条件。通过加入通货膨胀率、税收负担、政府消费三个变量考虑东道国不同宏观经济政策。表1表示实证分析的结果，回归1.1,1.2,1.3是等式（1）用SUR方法估计的变形。回归1.1是解释变量为