绩效评价模型建筑公司：以埃及为例[文献翻译]

1、原文：Performance Evaluating Model for Construction Companies:Egyptian Case StudyAbstract:Thedynamicnatureoftoday sconstructionindustrycompels construction partners to seek strategies in order to improveperformance.Currentresearchintroduces aperformanceevaluationmodelforconstructioncompaniesinordertopr

2、ovidea propertoolforacompanys managers, owners, shareholders,and fundingagenciestoevaluate the performance of construction companies. The model developedhelps a company s management to make the right decisions. Financial,economical,and industrialdataarecollectedfrom Egyptianconstructioncompanies for

3、nineconsecutiveyears _19922000_. Fiveindices_models_are developed: company performance score, economy performance score,industryperformancescore,performance index,and performance grade. Themodels developed considercompanies in fourconstructionsectors:generalbuilding,heavy, specialtrade,and realestat

4、e.These models accommodatetheeffectofmacroeconomic and industryrelatedfactorsand companysizeon the performance evaluation. The final outcome of current research isa performance grade, which provides the performance of a constructioncompany. The developed model is validated, which shows robust result

5、s.CE Database subject headings: Construction industry; Performancecharacteristics; Egypt; Construction firms; Evaluation; Case ReportsIntroductionPerformanceevaluationofconstructioncompaniesgainsitsimportancefrom the fact that todays world ismoving rapidly towardglobalization,which meansthe internat

6、ionalGeneral Agreement on Tariffsand Trade _GATT_. The concept of GATT is to conduct business anywhere, any time, and anyhow. In this environment, many multinational companiesareawarded business inothercountriesinwhich they are competing withlocal companies. Both multinational and local construction

7、 companiesshould seriouslylookforwardtoimprovingtheirperformanceinordertomaintaintheirinternationalreputation.Thecurrentstudydevelopsperformance evaluationofconstructioncompanies thatshows thepositionof such a company among others. This evaluation is deemed essential forowners, shareholders,and fund

8、ingagenciesofa companybecause itclearlydraws the correctpositionof thecompany. Ifthe companypositionisgood,thiswillincreasetheagencies interestinthecompany and viceversa.Many models were developed to evaluate companies performance, but fewof them consider economical and industrial changes in their m

9、odels.Therefore,themajorobjectiveofthecurrentstudyis todesign aperformance indexthatevaluatesa companys financialsituationwithinthe construction industry. This model will consider the economical andindustrial changes and their effect on the company.The current study presents a performance evaluation

10、 model based onfinancial ratios as well as economic and industry factors. The modeldeveloped considers four construction categories _based on the Egyptiancontractorunion:(1)generalbuilding;(2)heavy; (3)specialtrade;and(4) real estate. It considers the effect of company size and economicalandindustri

11、alvariablesonitsperformance.Companies thatperformbusiness across categories are not considered in the current studyBackgroundA number of construction companies performance evaluationmodelshave been developed along the previous 5 decades. They are dealing withthis problem at three different levels: (

12、1) construction industry; (2)company; and (3) project. Models at the construction industry level areused to measure the effect of economical, political, and social changeson the performanceof the constructionindustryas a whole. Kangari(1988)relatesthe changesinconstructionindustryfailurerate tosomem

13、acrocosmic factors:average prime interest rates,amount of constructionactivity,inflation,and newbusiness enteringtheconstructionindustry.Most performance evaluation models for construction companies are basedon their annual financial statements or reports. Different analyticaltechniques have been us

14、ed to develop these ratios:(1) financialstatementtrend analysis; (2) financial statement structural analysis; and (3)financial statement ratio analysis. The most important variables thatcould be used in financial statement trend analysis to differentiatebetweenfailedandnonfailedcompaniesare:accounts

15、receivable,under-belling, accounts payable, notes payable, total long-term debts,stock and retained earnings, cost of sales, and gross profit (Basha andHassanein 1988; Severson et al. 1994). Financial statement structuralanalysisdetermines the proportionthateach companys group or subgrouprepresents

16、in the financial statement (Hasabo 1996). A decompositionratio is used to determine changes in the percentageof the company sasset components intwoconsecutiveyears(Hasabo1996).Thefirststatisticalevaluationmodels topredictfinancialfailurewere developedby Beaver _1966_ but they were not targeting the

17、construction industry.Companies weredividedinto twomaingroups:failedandnon failedcompanies with similar asset size. Statistical models that are based onfinancial ratios of failed and non failed companies represent financialstatement ratio analysis. Beaver _1966_ compared these two groups basedupon 3

18、0 financialratiosin which there were differencesin themeanvaluesof thesetwo groups foratleast5 consecutiveyears beforefailure,withdifferences increasing as the year of failure approached.Many studies followed Beaver (1966) that investigated multivariate techniques to distinguish failed from non fail

19、ed companies. The Z score (discriminate model) dealt with companies that became legally bankrupt(Altman 1968). Deakin (1972) used accountingdata to perform multivariatediscriminateanalysison bankruptand non bankrupt companies. This studyconcluded that most financial ratios showed discriminatory abil

20、ity.The model of Kangari et al.(1992)used multipleregressionanalysistoevaluatetheperformanceofconstructioncompanies.Thisstudydeveloped a performance grade (G) curve in which the relative financial situation of any construction company, satisfying model limitations, could be determinedSeversonetal. (

21、1994)based theirmodel on discretechoicemodelingto predicttheprobabilityof failureofa constructioncompany inmeetingitsobligationsina constructioncontract.Russelland Zhai (1996)alsoused multiple regression analysis topredict construction companiesfailure and considered economic and financial variables

22、 together withtheir stochastic dynamicsAnother quantitative model based on financial ratios was developedby Goda (1999). The model objective was to develop standard financialratiosthatreflecttheperformanceofthe constructionindustryin Egypt.These standardscouldbe used tocompare theperformanceoftheEgy

23、ptianconstructionindustrywiththe internationalone. Accordingtothisstudy,regressionanalysishad providedmore reliableresultsthan thatproducedusing the supervised neural network.Previous models thatwere developedby Kangariet al.(1992)and Goda(1999)focusedmainlyonevaluatingtheperformanceusingfinancialra

24、tioswithoutconsideringtheeffectofmacroeconomicandindustryrelatedfactorson the performanceofconstructioncompanies. Inaddition,themodel developedby Goda (1999)did notconsiderthe effectofcompanysizeon itsperformance.Therefore,thenewly developedmodel incurrentresearch accommodated the effect of macroeco

25、nomics and industry related factors and company size on the company performance.Data Collection for Case StudyThe financial data for construction companies were collected in thetime period 19922000, from the Authority of Money Market, EgyptianGovernment in the form of: annual balance sheetsValues of

26、 Macroeconomic and Industry-Related VariablesMacroeconomic variablesIndustry-relatedvariablesYear of recordIFNIIRAWDAWSAWF1991.38.419932.98.91994910.319959.310.716.11.311.819967.311.019911.111.119951-34.619993.811.928.817.350.720002

27、.811.1294.1-54.7And/or annual income statements. Out of thousands of construction companies working in Egypt, only 122 companies are registered in the Egyptian money market. Approximately 415 financial statements from 9 consecutive years （19922000） were collected. Based upon the annual balance sheet

28、s and annual income statements, financial ratios of theEgyptianconstructioncompanies were determined.Onlysixfinancialratios were considered in the model developed: (1) current ratio (CR);(2) total debt to net worth ratio (TD/NW); (3) fixed assets to net worth ratio (FA/ NW); (4) revenue to working c

29、apital ratio (RV/WC); (5) netprofit to total assets ratio (NP/TA); and (6) net profit to net worth ratio (NP/NW). According to the importance of each ratio in evaluating the performance of the financial references, the six ratios are chosen torepresent the four ratio groups. Choosing only six ratios

30、 in the modelwas madein order to increasethe reliabilityof the model using the mostrelated ratios to the performance of the company.Economy data were collected from the Egyptian Ministry of ForeignTrade （2003a,b ）（Egyptian government）reportspublishedquarterly.Data,as shown in Table 1, include: infla

31、tion rate（IFN_）and average annualinterest rate（ ITR） as macroeconomic variables. On the other hand,average work capacity（AWC） , average work demand（AWD） , and theirdifference（ AWF） are used as industry related variables. Data werecollected for 9 consecutive years（19922000）Normalizing Financial DataI

32、n fact,some financialratiosare calculatedin terms of time whileothers are calculated in terms of percentages. Mathematical formulationof such types of data willresultin a bias to the largervalues of ratios（ Kangari et al. 1992 ）. In order to overcome this problem, normalizing the values of different

33、 ratios would make them nonbiased and consideredsmallervalue.Table 1 shows the normalizationcoefficientof the generalbuilding construction companies sector.Mathematical FormulationRegression analysis is used to develop the current model for thefollowing reasons (Goda 1999):? Itssimplicity,reliabilit

34、y,and suitabilityforthe problem understudy; and? Discriminate analysis is used to discriminate between failedandnon failed companies.Althoughtheunsupervisedneuralnetworktechniqueseems tobesuitableto the currentproblem,itneeds a quitelargedata set foreachsingle year.Performance Index Model BuildingTh

35、e performance index _PI_ is developed by combining the effect ofcompany,economy,andindustryrelatedfactors.These factorsarerepresentedinthemodel usingSc,Se,andSi,respectively.Thecombination process was performed based on Hasabo (199), which reportedthat theresponsibilityofcompany failurewas carriedou

36、tby threemajorfactors:macroeconomic(35 40%), industry（ 1015%0,and companyrelated factors (4045%). These factors are used to formulate the PI.Macroeconomic, industry, and company related factors are represented bythe normalized values of Se, Si, and Sc, respectively. The PI value canbe determined fro

37、m Eq. (2as follows:PI = 0.5 Sc- 0.375 Se- 0.125 Si(2)When a company has the best Sc value (Sc= +100) during a year thathas the worst values of both Se and Si (Se=- 100 and Si= - 100), it will beassigned the best value for performance index (PI= +100). This companymight have a good financialperforman

38、ceduringa fiscalyearthat has badeconomicaland industrialcircumstances.Insuch a case, thiscompanyhasa good financialandmanagerialperformance;however,itisworthsurvivingin business. Onthe other hand,a company might have theworstSc value(Sc=- 100_)duringa year thathas thebest valuesofbothSe andSi _Se= +

39、100 and Si= +100_. This company willbe assigned theworstvalueof performance index (PI= - 100). Therefore,the company had bad financialperformanceduringa fiscalyear that had good economicaland industrialcircumstances. Therefore, the company has weak financial and managerialperformance that needs suit

40、able remedial actions to survive in businessCompanies sectors, respectively. Results from the application ofthe validation data subset are compared to those of the application ofthemodel buildingsubset.This meansthatthemodels developedarerobustinrepresentingvariousconstructionsectorswitha validation

41、of93.18%(1.76 0.12/1.76). The average standard deviation for the model resultsis 79.13; however, it is 37.58 for validation results, which shows morethan 50% enhancement inthevalidationresults.Thisalso shows thatthemodels developed are robust in representing construction sectors. Inconclusion,based

42、upon theresultsinTable 8,themodels developedshowacceptable results in general; however, the deviation is almost withinthe 10% range in various sectorsSummary and ConclusionsCurrentresearchdevelopeda performanceevaluationmodelforconstruction companies (Egyptian case study). A PI is developed usingthr

43、ee performance scores: company financial (Sc), economical (Se), andindustrial (Si). The PI developed did not provide proper evaluation ofthe companyperformancerelativetoother competitorswithinthe industry.Therefore, a company grade（ G） index is developed using cumulativedistributionof the PI values.

44、The G indexshows percentageof companiesbelow theindustryaverage and thesituationofa specifiedcompanyunderconsideration.According toregressionanalysis,inflationhas no effecton the economy score (Se). In addition, depending only on the volume ofdemandorsupplyon constructiondid not reflectthepropervalu

45、ationofindustryperformance score (Si).The G indexforthe Egyptianconstructionindustryshows that the pioneerpositionbelongs tothe heavy constructionsector with only65% of its companiesunder PI=0. Themodel developed isvalidated, which shows robust results译文：绩效评价模型建筑公司：以埃及为例摘要： 今天的建筑施工行业的动态性质，迫使寻求战略合作伙伴

46、， 以提高性能。目前的研究引入了一个建筑公司绩效评价模型，以提供一个公司的经理，业主，股东和供资机构，以评估适当的建筑公司业绩的工具。该模型有助于开发公司的管理层作出正确的决定。财政，经济和工业数据收集从埃及建筑公司为九(1992 2000) 连续两年。五个指标 (models) 的开发：公司业绩评分，经济表现评分，行业表现评分，性能指标和性能等级。发达国家考虑在四个建筑行业的公司的模式：一般建筑，重型，特种行业，房地产等。这些模型适应宏观经济和行业的相关因素对绩效评估和公司规模。当前研究的最终结果是一种性能等级，它提供了一间建筑公司的表现。所开发的模型进行了验证，这表明稳定的结果CE数据库主

47、题词：建筑业 ; 性能特点，埃及建筑公司评价 ; 病例报告简介绩效评价的建筑公司根据事实而来，今天的世界正走向全球化，这意味着国际总协定关税与贸易（ GATT）迅速的重要性。总协定的概念是开展业务的任何地方，任何时间，无论如何。在这种环境下， 许多跨国公司都在它们获得与当地公司竞争的其他国家开展业务。跨国企业和本地的建筑公司应认真研究提出以改善他们的业绩，以维持其国际声誉。目前的研究开发建筑公司的表现的评价，显示了这样一个在其他公司的地位。这种评估被认为是对业主，股东和公司的筹资机构至关重要，因为它清楚地提请本公司的正确位置。如果公司的立场是好的，这将增加机构的利益在公司，反之亦然。开发了许多

48、模型来评估公司的表现，但很少考虑他们的模型和工业经济的变化。因此， 当前研究的主要目标是设计一个性能指标，用于评估在建筑行业的公司的财务状况。该模型将考虑经济和工业变化及其对公司的影响。目前的研究提出了一个绩效评估模型财务比率，以及经济和行业因素的影响。该模型开发的考虑四个类别在埃及建造承包商联盟：（ 1）一般建设 ; （ 2）重 ; （ 3）特殊行业 ; （四）房地产。 它认为， 公司的规模，经济和工业对其性能的影响因素。跨类别的公司进行业务是没有考虑目前的研究。背景由建筑公司业绩评价模型，制定了许多过去50 年一直。他们是处理这个问题在三个不同的层次：（1）建筑业 ; （ 2）公司 ; （

49、3）项目。在建筑行业层面模型是用来测量对建筑行业作为一个整体表现的经济，政治和社会变化的影响。 Kangari （1988）涉及建造业的故障率变化的一些宏观因素：平均最优惠利率，建筑活动，通货膨胀数额， 新的业务进入建筑行业。 大多数性能评价模型的建筑公司是根据其年度财务报表或报告。 不同的分析技术已被用来发展这些比率： （1）财务报表的趋势分析，（2）财务报表的结构分析，以及（ 3）财务报表比率分析。最重要的，可以在财务报表的趋势分析方法区分失败， 失败的公司非变量是： 应收账款，欠扩口，应付账款，应付票据，长期借款，股票和留存收益，销售成本和总利润（巴沙和哈萨尼 1988; 。塞夫森等 1

50、994）。财务报表结构分析确定的比例，每个公司的团体或小组中的财务报表（ Hasabo 1996 年）代表。阿分解率是用来确定在该公司的资产在两个组件 （Hasabo 1996 年）连续两年的变动百分率。第一个统计评价模型来预测财务失败是由比弗 （1966）但他们不是针对建筑行业。公司分为两大类： 没有类似的资产规模和非倒闭的公司。 统计上的失败是失败的公司和非财务比率的模型表示的财务报表比率分析。 比弗（1966）比较这两组作为失败的接触后，同比增长差异，其中有 30 人在这两个群体的平均价值观念的差异，至少连续失败的前 5 年的财务比率计算。许多研究之后比弗（ 1966 年）的调查 , 多

51、变量的技术，以区别于非倒闭的公司失败。 Z 评分（歧视模型）的公司，成为依法破产处理。迪肯（ 1972）所采用的会计数据上执行破产和非破产公司多元判别分析。 本研究结果显示， 大部分的财务比率歧视性的能力。该 Kangari 等模型。（1992 年）采用多元回归分析，评估建筑公司的表现。本研究开发了一种性能等级（ G）的曲线，其中财务状况相对任何建筑公司，满足模式的局限性，可确定。塞夫森等。 （1994 年）为基础的离散选择模型，预测模型在满足建筑合同的义务，一家建筑公司失败的概率。罗素和翟（ 1996）也使用多元回归分析，预测建筑公司的失败，并认为连同其随机动态的经济和金融变量。另一种定量模型为基础的财务比率是由哥达（ 1999 年）。模型的目标是制定标准，反映了建筑行业在埃及性能财务比率。 这些标准可以用来比较埃及建造业的表现。根据这项研究，