第5章 参数估计

1、nmAAP事件个数样本空间所包含的基本所包含的基本事件个数事件)(68. 0125008500)(全公司职工总人数全公司男性职工人数AP496. 0125006200)(全公司职工总人数炼钢厂职工人数BPpnmAP)(4 . 03012)(试验的天数超过用电指标天数AP取无穷个值）取有限个值）XpxXEXpxXEiiiniii()()(11122)()()()(iiipXExXDXXEXEXD是离散型随机变量，则若11niip)!( !), 2 , 1 , 0(xnxnxnCnxqpCxXPxnxxn式中：1)(0nnxxnxxnqpqpC1 , 01xqpxXPxxnmxxnxxnmxxnx

2、xnqpCnXmPqpCmXP00), 2 , 1 , 0(!enxxxXP1d)()2(0)() 1 (xxfxfbaxxfbXaPd )()(xab)(d)()()(xxttfxXPxF)()(d)()(aFbFxxfbXaPbaxxxfXEd)()(2d)()()(xxfXExXDxxfx,e21)(2221xCAB?d)()(baxxfbxaPxxx,e21)(22)1 ,0( NXZxtxtttxde21d)()(2-2abbXaP)(9525.0)67.1 (67.135351035)10(XPXPXP7938.0)1()67.1(67.1351351035352)102(XPXP

3、XPnxxS22nxx1)(122*nxxsniix5x50 x5 . 2xnxxNNNN101或nnpnnp101或)(pEnp)1 (21)1 (2NnNnpxxzx212cnNXiXx2nx2Nnnx12xx02121NPNPPPPPPPPPPPNNPNNPNNpNpffxxfxfX111111122021202122nPpx)1 ( NnnPpx1)1 (2xp2s2/2tz)1 ,0( Nnxz)(22未知或nszxnzx28.109,44.10192.336.105251096.136.1052nzx36.105x63.41,37.3713.25 .393677.7645.15 .

4、392nszx5 .39x77. 7s86.6614.6386. 19487. 096. 19487. 0250152Xznxxx%45.956 .1604 .1599545. 0123 . 06 . 03 . 010092?Xznxxx)1(ntnsxtnstx22 .1503, 8 .14762 .1314901677.24131.214902nstx1490 x77.24s) 1 , 0()1 (Nnpznppzp)-1 (2%35.74%,65.55%35.9%65100%)651%(6596.1%65)1 (2nppzp26. 574. 426. 013. 0213. 0500025

5、01250544. 4xx001.90 x2201853. 0S%67. 1300/5pnppZd/ )1 (2/300/ )0167. 01 (0167. 096. 1 该厂产品次品率的置信度为95%的置信区间为 ) ,(dpdp )3.12% %,22. 0(%45. 1 %65.635.1%35.196.1%35.1)2011 (20096.004.096.1,201%,42008pptNnp均值均值比例比例方差方差大样本大样本小样本小样本大样本大样本 2 2分布分布 2 2已知已知 2 2已知已知Z Z分布分布 2 2未知未知Z Z分布分布Z Z分布分布Z Z分布分布 2 2未知未知t t分布分布2222)(EznnzE29704.964002000)96. 1 ()(2222222Ezn9704.964002000)96. 1 ()(2222222Ezn222)1 ()(EznnzE)1 (21393 .13805. 0)9 . 01 (9 . 0)96. 1 ()1 ()(22222Ezn? / )1 ( 2/nppZ