NEWCRESTMININGLTDNCM.AX0831

1、chris terry4440363228242012deutsche bankmarkets researchratingbuyaustralasiaaustraliacompanynewcrest mining ltddate28 august 2012company updatem&m - goldprice at 28 aug 2012price target - 12mth26.7027.85reutersbloombergexchange ticker52 week range (aud)40.25 - 20.94ncm.axncm auasxncmall ordinari

2、es4,373previewing the wafi-golpu pfsbrett mckayresearch analystnewcrest and harmony to deliver the wafi-golpu pfs on 29th aug 2012the morobe mining joint venture (mmjv), a 50:50 partnership betweennewcrest (ncm) and harmony (har) will release the pre-feasibility study(pfs) on the wafi-golpu (wg) pro

3、ject on 29th august. post the delivery andramp-up of near-term growth projects at cadia east and lihir mopu, wgbecomes the main organic growth asset for ncm. the jv has been workingtoward development of a 20-30mtpa operation for a$3-5bn, first production infy17, annual output of 600-800koz au &

4、300-500kt cu after a 5yr ramp-up. areserve update is also expected, with recent drilling expanding the golpuorebody and higher commodity price assumptions. buy on valuation.dbe:$4bn capex, 30mtpa, c.700kozpa au & c.300ktpa cu, 1st prodn 1h fy18we currently assume $4bn to develop golpu only, with

5、 first production in 1hfy18, ramping up over a 5 years. annual output of c.700koz au and 300kt cuover 25 years extracts a total 15.8moz au and 6.8mt cu. our npv (100%) iscurrently $6.2bn with a 21% irr. further, we believe the png governmentexercises its option to acquire a 30% contributing interest

6、 in the project infy15 (for sunk costs), diluting ncm/har to 35% ownership each.current guidance suggests very low capital intensity compared to global peersour analysis of capital intensity reveals wafi-golpu has the lowest capitalintensity at $7730/t cueq relative to global peers (average $15,600/

7、t). this(+61) 2 8258-mat hockingresearch associate(+61) 2 8258-research analyst(+61) 2 8258-price/price relativeassumes the mid-point of the capex and output guidance ranges. however, thecapital intensity increases to $12,500/t if capex is lifted to $5bn and the lowerend of the production ranges are

8、 applied.8/102/11 8/11newcrest mining ltdall ordinaries (rebased)2/12metallurgical issues will need considerationhistorical met testing of both wafi and golpu deposits indicates potentialissues which require consideration. 83% of the wafi gold resource is highlyperformance (%)absoluteall ordinaries1

9、m15.43.33m5.36.112m-32.42.4refractory and likely to require oxidation to achieve acceptable au recoveries.the upper parts of golpu contain elevated arsenic (enargite), potentiallyimpacting the concentrate quality produced from this section of the orebody.earnings and pt unchanged at $27.75/sh. retai

10、n buythere has been no change to earnings or price target, derived from 1.2xp/npv. risks related to operational underperformance and macro risks (p.12).forecasts and ratiosyear end jun 30net profit (audm)eps (aud)per (x)2012a1,0841.4223.22013e1,4871.9413.82014e1,8382.4011.12015e1,7952.3411.4source:

11、deutsche bank estimates, company datapre-exceptionals/extraordinariesmultiples and yields calculations use average historical prices for past years and spot prices for current and future years, except p/b which usesthe year end close_deutsche bank ag/sydneyall prices are those current at the end of

12、the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. prices are sourcedfrom local exchanges via reuters, bloomberg and other vendors. data is sourced from deutsche bank and subjectcompanies. deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus,investor

13、s should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures andanalyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012.282

14、4n28 august 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdmodel updated:13 august 2012fiscal year end 30-jun2010201120122013e2014e2015erunning the numbersfinancial summaryaustralasiaaustraliam&m - goldnewcrest mining ltddb eps (aud)reported eps (aud)dps (aud)bvps (aud)valuation metricsprice/sales (x)1.58

15、1.150.2510.245.81.401.200.5018.007.11.421.460.1419.555.71.941.940.4821.173.92.402.400.6523.083.22.342.340.8124.933.2reuters: ncm.axbuyprice (28 aug 12)target price52 week rangemarket cap (m)bloomberg: ncm auaud 26.70aud 27.85aud 20.94 - 40.25audm 20,456p/e (db) (x)p/e (reported) (x)p/bv (x)fcf yield

16、 (%)dividend yield (%)ev/salesev/ebitdaev/ebit21.128.93.43.20.85.811.314.427.532.12.1nm1.37.214.419.023.222.61.2nm0.46.012.617.013.813.81.3nm1.84.48.09.711.111.11.26.52.43.66.67.911.411.41.17.23.03.56.47.9usdm 21,241income statement (audm)company profilenewcrest mining ltd is an australia-based gold

17、 companyheadquartered in melbourne. it is engaged in theexploration, development, mining and sale of gold andgold/copper concentrates in australia, indonesia, fiji, theunited states, peru, png, west africa and chile. thecompanys current activities include development projectssuch as (cadia east open

18、 pit and underground, ridgewaydeeps and kencana k2) and operating mines (telfer, cadiahill, ridgeway, cadia valley east, lihir island, gosowong,hidden valley, bonikro, mt rawdon and cracow).price performance44403632salesebitdaebitpre-tax profitnet incomecash flow (audm)cash flow from operationsnet c

19、apexfree cash flowequity raised/(bought back)dividends paidnet inc/(dec) in borrowingsother investing/financing cash flowsnet cash flowchange in working capital2,8021,4281,1278115571,303-786518-16-112-3-9288-54,1022,0451,5441,3009081,729-1,890-1610-231427-367-434-3624,4162,1131,5711,5771,1171,726-2,

20、556-8300-4051,543-89611835,3072,9082,3892,2301,4871,824-1,901-770-240345-44-17606,3863,5122,8952,7301,8382,623-1,2911,3320-376-135-4461606,3713,4582,8012,6581,7952,613-1,1501,4630-375-53-448310balance sheet (audm)20aug 10nov 10feb 11may 11aug 11 ov 11feb 12may 12margin trends56524844403632newcrest m

21、ining ltdall ordinaries (rebased)cash and cash equivalentsproperty, plant & equipmentgoodwillother assetstotal assetsdebtother liabilitiestotal liabilitiestotal shareholders equitynet debtkey company metricssales growth (%)6431,76403,9266,3344278981,3245,010-21710.71853,310013,78717,2828002,6073

22、,40713,87561546.42424,364015,90320,5092,4083,0075,41515,0942,1667.7665,747016,36222,1752,7533,0075,76016,4152,68720.26826,421016,47023,5742,6183,0075,62517,9491,93620.31,5146,915016,57825,0072,5663,0075,57319,4351,052-0.210111213e14e15edb eps growth (%)53.3-11.31.237.023.6-2.3ebitda margingrowth &am

23、p; profitability504030ebit margin2015payout ratio (%)ebitda margin (%)ebit margin (%)roe (%)net debt/equity (%)21.751.040.216.8-4.341.649.937.69.14.49.747.835.67.514.424.854.845.09.616.427.255.045.310.910.834.654.344.09.85.420100-1010111213e14e15e1050net interest cover (x)dupont analysisebit margin

24、(%)x asset turnover (x)53.740.20.5117.037.60.3-785.435.60.2-599.445.00.2-633.245.30.3-116.844.00.3x financial cost ratio (x)1.01.01.00.90.90.9solvency20151050-5-101011sales growth (lhs)1213e14eroe (rhs)2000-200-400-600-800-100015ex tax and other effects (x)= roa (post tax) (%)x financial leverage (x

25、)= roe (%)annual growth (%)x nta/share (avg) (x)= reported epsannual growth (%)source: company data, deutsche bank estimates0.59.51.312.277.39.41.15117.70.66.41.27.8-36.115.41.204.40.75.91.37.7-1.519.01.4621.50.77.01.49.624.620.21.9433.00.78.11.310.913.222.12.4023.60.77.41.39.8-10.124.02.34-2.3net d

26、ebt/equity (lhs)brett mckay+61 2 8258-2607page 2net interest cover (rhs)deutsche bank ag/sydney-8000.606831,082-0-epsdps28 august 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdhj_13newcrest operational summary datainput assum ptionsaudusdgold (us$/oz)silver (us$/oz)copper (us$/lb)fy10a0.881,09316.883.04fy11a

27、0.991,37328.953.94fy12a1.031,67333.233.71fy13f0.991,95039.553.57fy14f0.961,90038.833.49fy15f0.931,70333.633.32fy16f0.891,50928.883.15fy17f0.871,41326.503.06np v (hj13)telfercadia valleygosowonghidden valleya$m n9755,6791,829412a$/sh1.277.412.390.54(%)5%32%10%2%lihir island8,44811.0348%gold product i

28、on (equity), kozbonikro3220.422%telfercadia valleygosowonghidden valleylihir islandbonikro6894984436062151546310079150540473439896049253443840398773895356343981229971025186833981221,1401275197133981221,1921705207003981221,243170wafi golpuexploration (namosi/ocallaghans)evolution (evn.asx)corporate/o

29、thernet debtt ot al2,1671,500386(1,308)(2,687)17,7222.831.960.50(1.71)(3.51)23.1312%8%2%-7%-15%100%cracow and mt. rawdon7216148w acc8.7%sha res766mt otal1,7612,702 2,286 2,336 2,788 2,987 3,112 3,153% change53%-15%2%19%7%4%1%gold & audus ds ilv er p roduction (equity), koztelfer37336720020020020

30、02002,2002,0001.101.00cadia valley1322664202532983163403521,800gosowong6983872714174174174174171,6000.90hidden valleyt otal2861,116716 858 686 1,125 1,071 1,008 1,4691,743 1,916 1,556 2,040 2,004 1,965 2,4381,4001,2000.80% change56%10%-19%31%-2%-2%24%1,0000.70cop p er p roduct ion (equity), ktfy10a

31、fy11a fy12a fy13f fy14f fy15f fy16ftelfercadia valleyt otal% change355287324476-13%3145761%2553782%23759827%23791024%24841086%25851112%gold (us$/oz)copper & s ilver45.00audusd (rhs)4.5040.00t otal cas h cos t s , a$/oz35.004.00telfercadia valley4991206742997834228843861,0103701,0443121,013282983

32、30830.0025.003.50gosowonghidden valleylihir islandbonikrow . av erage301417-3193221,0104191,2444504051,2595609036044481,2026037486314531,15258671162945397057458859645390647355053845273137854149420.0015.0010.005.00-fy10a fy11a fy12a fy13f fy14f fy15f fy16f3.002.502.00capex , a$msilver (us$/oz)copper

33、(us$/lb)telfer8084948080808040revenue split by com m oditycadia valleygosowonghidden valley3381901181,07820331,169100501,0403040520302032030202653020210302070006000809826865lihir islandbonikroother (incl. ocallaghans, namosi & golpu)t otal603-1,32961841351,90886165542,39360551001,9014171241001,2

34、912162432741,184197413971,0291771841390750004000300020006773,218638 5,537 5,516625 4,6453,527 3,6395,1748724,5828954,0441,2193,852 3,934ep s s ens it iv it y (for 10% move)fy12fy13mozev a$/oz ev us$/oz1000goldcopperaudusd0%0%0%21%3%-21%reservesresources80.0147.5282.39153.162921580total goldtotal cop

35、pertotal silverp roduct ion v/s cash costscash, debt & gearing (%)free cashflow v/s capex4,0003,0002,0001,000-fy10a fy11a fy12a fy13f fy14f fy15f fy16f800600400200-3000250020001500100050015.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%-5.0%-10.0%3,0002,0001,000(1,000)(2,000)teflercadia valleygosowong2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2

36、014e 2015e 2016e2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016ehidden valleycash costs (a$/oz)lihir islandbonikorocashdebtnet debt/nd + ecapexfcfearnings & dividend300250200150100500p rice to earnings30.025.020.015.010.05.0ev /ebit da16.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.02010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016

37、esource: company data, db estimates, datastreamdeutsche bank ag/sydney2010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e0.02010a 2011a 2012a 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016epage 3th28 august 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdpreviewing the wafi-golpupfsintroductionnewcrest (ncm) and harmony (har) will release the

38、findings of an updated pre-feasibility study (pfs) on the wafi-golpu project on wednesday 29 august 2012. witha current beneficial interest of 50%, this project becomes the main organic growthasset for ncm post delivery and ramp-up of cadia east and lihir mopu during fy13and fy14. the pfs is expecte

39、d to outline parameters of a large underground copper-gold development of the golpu porphyry, however may also include details of aseparate, smaller development of a gold-only project based around the 6.2moz wafigold resource. the pfs is also expected to reveal a significant increase to mineralreser

40、ves, particularly for golpu which has been the focus of a successful drillingprogram which has delineated significant zones of mineralisation outside the previousresource and reserve boundaries. higher metal price assumptions are also expected tosignificantly impact reserves.with a preliminary pfs o

41、n the development of both the wafi high sulphidationepithermal deposit and the golpu porphyry zone completed by har in 2007, significantexploration and pre-development work has been undertaken since the inception of the50:50 morobe mining joint venture (mmjv) between ncm and har in 2009. thisadditio

42、nal work has focused on better understanding the size, geometry, gradedistribution and metallurgy of the golpu mineralisation with the aim of delivering a pfsmore representative of a potential development centered around the golpu orebody.the key differentiating factor to be considered in the 2012 p

43、fs will be the increasedsize of the golpu deposit, in addition to a better understanding of the distribution ofhigher grade zones within golpu and the impact of higher metal price assumptions.with particular emphasis on the headline results of this pfs, such as capex, annual cu-au production, cash c

44、osts and timeline, we also remain interested in the resolution of anumber of potential technical issues that were identified in previous studies. theseinclude the higher concentration of arsenic within the upper parts of the golpu deposit,particularly if this area is the focus for any early-stage pr

45、oduction initiatives. further, wenote the highly refractory nature of the majority (c.83%) of the wafi gold resource andpotential implications for the overall development if this deposit was included in the life-of-mine plan.current guidance a$3-5bn capex; 600-800koz au; 300-500kt cuthe jv has provi

46、ded a broad range of guidance for the key project parameters beingconsidered in the pfs, including capex, copper-gold output and timing of firstproduction. on a 100% basis, the jv expects the pfs to outline:pre-production capex: a$3-5bnaverage annual output: 600-800koz au and 300-500kt cucash costs:

47、 1st quartilefirst production: fy17page 4deutsche bank ag/sydney28 august 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltd5 year ramp-upthe development is expected to focus on the golpu porphyry, however may also involvea smaller development of the wafi gold deposit.dbe assumptions suggest a more conservative

48、start-upour assumptions are built around a development of the golpu porphyry deposit onlyand we currently do not factor in a production contribution from the wafi gold resource(6.2moz), nor the nambonga deposit (1moz). we currently assume the pfs rollsimmediately into a 2.5 year full feasibility stu

49、dy, a period which is likely to includeconstruction of an exploration decline. we currently forecast annual expenditure of$200m per annum (100%) during this phase. following this, a 3 year development andconstruction timeframe will deliver first copper-gold concentrate in 1h fy18, withramp-up to ful

50、l production occurring over a 5 year period. based on these assumptions,we currently expect:pre-production capex: $4bn (100%)annual throughput: 30mtpafirst production: 1h fy18ramp-up: 5 years; full production achieved 1h fy21grade: 0.8g/t au, 1.1% curecovery: 90% for both gold and copperannual outpu

51、t: c.700kozpa au & c.300kozpa cu.life-of-mine: 25 yearslife-of-mine cumulative output: 15.8moz and 6.8mt cuoperating cost: $20/t (mining, processing, g&a)npv: $6.2bn (100%); irr: 21%we also believe the png government will exercise its option to acquire a 30% interest inthe project for its pr

52、o-rate share of sunk costs. with this milestone to occur upon awardof a mining lease (or equivalent), we expect the png government to reimburse the jvc.$200m sometime in fy15 and then contribute its share of the ongoing capitaldevelopment costs. this would dilute both ncm and har interests to 35% ea

53、ch from2h fy15.based on the density of drilling within the deeper, higher grade parts of the golpusystem, it is possible some of this mineralisation, which has only recently beenintersected, falls outside the mining inventory considered in the pfs mine plan. withevaluation of this zone to be easier

54、from underground positions, we believe the mmjvwill construct an exploration decline during the full feasibility study. this will not onlyallow for better drilling positions, but allow access to the orebody for detailedgeotechnical and metallurgical assessment.capital intensity based on current assu

55、mptionswith initial capex and production estimates provided by ncm, we have compared thecapital intensity of the golpu development to other copper-gold projects at the pre-development and pre-production stage (figure 1 and 2). to do this we have calculatedthe average annual copper equivalent product

56、ion rate for each project using the dbelong term copper and gold price forecasts of $2.77/lb and $1025/oz respectively.deutsche bank ag/sydneypage 5capitalintensity($/tcueq*)quellavecosierragordacongawafi-golpucobrepanamamountmilligangalorecreekantapaccayrekodiqconstanciacerrocasaleelpachonfriedariv

57、erlasbambasoyutolgoitampakanelgalenocaspicheelmorropebblecapex(us$bn)65431028 august 2012m&m - goldnewcrest mining ltdfor this exercise we have assumed the mid-point of the ncm/har guidance rangesprovided for capex and cu-au output, with pre-development capex of $4bn and annualoutput of 517kt cu

58、eq (700kozpa and 400ktpa cu). the resulting capital intensity forgolpu is $7730/t cueq, well below the weighted average of the 20 comparable projectsin this study of $15,600/t. figure 1 illustrates the relative position of wafi-golpu ashaving the lowest capital intensity of the peer group. lifting t

59、he capex to $5bnincreases capital intensity to $9660/t, with a further increase to $12,500/t cueq if thelower end of the annual production guidance range is used ($5bn capex, 600koz au,300kt cu).figure 1: capital intensity of pre-development copper-gold projects35000300002500020000average $15,600/t1

60、50001000050000*based on dbe long term prices: cu = $2.77/lb and au $1025/ozsource: deutsche bankfigure 2: capex and copper equivalent production7cerro casalecobre panamatampakanoyu tolgoigalore creekcaspichecongalas bambasfrieda riverpebbleel morroel galenoel pachonwafi-golpureko diqsierra gordaquellaveco2constanciaantapaccaymt milligan*based on dbe long term prices: cu