中国开发商涨势可能因政策风险加剧回调建议择机吸纳摘要0109

1、相关研究行业风险2013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商证券研究报告涨势可能因政策风险加剧回调；建议择机吸纳 (摘要)受多重积极因素推动，房地产股涨势强劲自我们于 2012 年 12 月 4 日发表 2013 年展望报告以来，我们覆盖的海外上市/a我们的选股建议概要股房地产股表现强劲，分别上涨 16%/19%。许多宏观因素推动了这一涨势；行业具体的推动因素包括：1) 房地产销售保持强劲；2) 发行债券的再融资成本创历史低位；3) 我们研究范围内的开发商、特别是龙头企业土地收购的步伐加快；4) 政8/janrating lcy12-m tppotentialupside/downsidebull

2、-casevaluationvariancevs.sharepricebear-casevaluationvariancevs.shareprice策消息面整体尚平静。展望今后几个月，除政策外，各种因素依然有利并支撑估值今年 1、2 月份的销售表现可能出现淡季不淡的情况，我们预计二季度销售季到来之前土地购置活动将进一步加速，因为随着开发商在销售季之后回收更多现金，土地竞争会更为激烈。在宏观层面，城镇化的进一步推进和财富再分配方案的具体落实也有望帮助居民承受能力持续改善而支持需求增长。然而，随着越来越多城市的房价涨势日益坚挺，我们认为政策将在不久的将来打破沉寂，并在未来几个月中令offshore

3、 listedlongforpoly property (h)kwgcrlgreentowncountry gardenevergrandesunacyanlordpcrtoffshore averageonshore listedvanke (a)bcdzhongnanvanke (b)cmp (a)smcb*bbbb*bbbssb*b*bbbshk$hk$hk$hk$hk$hk$hk$hk$s$s$rmbrmbrmbhk$rmbrmb26.57.01.40.4513.432.010.037%17%16%15%14%7%5%3%

4、-14%-24%7%32%19%18%14%7%-17%24.29.08.431.4416.235.811.557%41%35%36%40%28%24%21%-1%-10%27%49%43%43%29%19%-4%19.26.06.324.4811.912.913.812.829.79.324%-7%1%6%-5%-9%-10%-6%-23%-36%-7%18%1%1%2%-1%-22%股票波动加剧。onshore averagetotal average12%9%30%28%0%-4%注：*位

5、于我们的强力买入名单。但从中期来看估值水平不高；建议择机吸纳在我们的房地产行业基本情景中，我们只假设房价在 2014 年底之前上涨 5%-10%，我们认为这已充分考虑新调控政策的潜在影响。我们覆盖的海外上市开发，我们认为这已充分考虑新调控政策的潜在影响。我们覆盖的海外上市开发商股价目前相对于净资产价值平均折让 36%，这个水平：1) 相对于香港/新加坡同业仍存在折让（而 2009 年为平均溢价 21%），尽管前者财务风险和库存压力不断下降而三者政策风险类似；2) 较 2009 年的均值存在 26%的大幅折让。我们覆盖的 a 股开发商对应 9.9 倍的 2013 年预期市盈率，接近 2012 年

6、的峰值（10.3倍），但仍处于 2009 年历史区间的低端。我们认为从中期看来，两地股市的估值都不太高，建议投资者在房地产股出现明显回调时逢低吸纳。首选股：龙湖地产、绿城房产；万科 a 和首开股份（全部位于强力买入名单）我们认为这四只股票的风险回报在我们的研究范围内最具吸引力，因为它们较同业的估值折让大于历史水平。*全文翻译随后提供资料来源: datastream、高华证券研究预测2013 年 - 良性循环的开始；上调目标价；强力买入万科 a，2012 年 12 月 4 日110 家 a 股开发商三季度业绩要点：资本开支上升但财务状况保持稳健， 2012 年 11 月 1 日海外上市房产股选股

7、调整；绿城房产/龙湖地产进入强力买入名单，2012 年 10 月 22 日上行：房价复苏强于预期。下行：政府调控之严超出预期。王逸, cfa 执业证书编号: s1420510120004+86(21)2401-8930 北京高华证券有限责任公司李薇 执业证书编号: s1420510120012+86(21)2401-8926 北京高华证券有限责任公司杜茜 执业证书编号: s1420511100001+86(10)6627-3147 北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司北京高华证券有限责任公司及其关联机构与其研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当

8、考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。 有关分析师的申明和其他重要信息，见信息披露附录，或请与您的投资代表联系。投资研究245687822013 年 1 月 9 日table of contentsfrom a strong finish to a good start; low season sales not lowrefinancing cost from bond issuance now at record lownew acquisitions accelerated in dec; nav expansion slow but

9、is onpolicy quiet so far but risk increasing on firming price uptrendvaluations not demanding in regional/historical contextdisclosure appendix中国：开发商13the prices in the body of this report are based on the market close of january 08, 2013.the authors would like to thank olivia xiao for her contribut

10、ion to this report.from a strong finish to a good start; low season sales not lowcontinuing from record high sales in major cities in december last year (see exhibit 1), 2013began on a strong note with volumes in the first week 91% higher than the jan/feb 2012 average(see exhibit 2). we expect such

11、yoy volume growth to continue on the back of further recovery ineconomic growth and a stable property price trend in major primary markets.exhibit 1: dec 2012 weekly sales were flat vs nov, thehighest in the yearweekly volume comparison between years, quarters and monthsin 35 major cities in chinaex

12、hibit 2: 2013 began on a strong notecomparison of jan & feb sales of current year vs. nov & decsales of previous yearmn sqm35 major cities average weekly transaction volumemn sqm35 major cities historical jan-feb transaction volume comparison6576jan-feb 2010:-48% from avg nov-dec 09+11% from

13、 avg jan-feb 09jan-feb 2011:-20% from avg nov-dec 10+22% from avg jan-feb 10jan-feb 2012:-28% from avg nov-dec 11-45% from avg jan-feb 111st week of jan 13:-31% from avg nov-dec 12+91% from avg jan-feb 1254433210source: cia/soufun, gao hua securities research.高华证券投资研究210source: cia/soufun, gao hua s

14、ecurities research.32013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商exhibit 3: dec sales across our coverage universe increased by a median level of 31% yoy sending their full-year saleson a median level to 33% higher than in 20112012 contract sales comparison vs. contract sales targetcontracted salescontracted salestarget% of

15、sales12-dec(rmb bn)mom(%)yoy(%)2012(rmb bn)yoy(%)2012(rmb bn)target(%)agilecolicrlcgevergrandegreentownr&fkwglongforpoly property (h)shimaosino oceansohosunac3.04.716%56%-5%-10%-35%-61%9%-29%9%6%25%-23%n.a.15%7%47%-32%45%501%-41%-19%36%63%27%70%-45%-20%146%30.

16、893.550.047.692.351.032.212.040.123.046.131.08.931.6-2%31%39%10%15%44%7%4%5%46%50%15%-20%78%318240438035321239194527133099%114%125%111%115%146%101%100%103%121%102%115%68%105%offshore median6%31%15%105%bcdcmpgemdalepolyrisesunvankezhongnan1.0n.a.4.39.7n.a.14.12.0-17%n.a.9%11%n.a.-18%150%n.a.n.a.-10%7

17、2%n.a.142%18%17.035.634.2101.718.3141.211.549%70%10%39%55%16%35%142131100151409121%170%111%102%122%101%128%onshore medianmedian9%7%45%31%39%33%121%111%note: (1) 2012 contract sales target for vanke and poly refers to gs estimate. (2) for agile, coli, crl, greentown, kwg, shimao, poly property (h), s

18、ino ocean,yanlord, cmp and risesun, 2012 and december 12 contract sales data are announced by cric; there could be some discrepancies between these numbers and thefinal numbers to be released by listed developers in the coming weeks.source: company data, cric, gao hua securities research.高华证券投资研究554

19、2013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商refinancing cost from bond issuance now at record lowwe believe lower refinancing costs support a higher valuation for highly levered chinese propertydevelopers. as can be seen in exhibits 4 and 5, the average coupon rate for newly issued bondsfor select developers during since 2

20、h12 fell to 7.8%, a record low since 2009. furthermore, theaverage tenure has increased to 7 years vs. 6 years in 2009.exhibit 4: re-financing cost for developers now lower than in 2009 with longer tenureaverage financing cost and tenure of bond issuance from select (see exhibit 5) developers(years)

21、8avg tenure (lhs)avg coupon (rhs)12%710%68%546%34%22%100%2009201020111h122h12-ytdsource: company data, gao hua securities research.exhibit 5: details of coupons/tenures on individual bondscoupon2h12-tenure (years)2h12-2009201020111h12ytd2009201020111h12ytdagile10.0%8.9%9.9%775crl4.6%5country garden1

22、1.8%11.3%57country gardenevergrande10.3%13.0%11.1%7.5%7.5%557310evergrande9.3%franshion6.8%4.7%105r&f6.9%7.0%53r&f10.9%10.9%54kwglongforshui on landshui on landshimao6.7%12.5%6.9%9.7%12.8%9.5%7.6%11.0%13.3%8.0%9.8%6.9%10.1%6.6%77375547533757soho5.8%soho7.1%10kaisa13.5%13.5%10.3%548yanlord5.9

23、%9.5%10.6%577average8.2%10.6%9.4%10.2%7.8%66547source: company data, gao hua securities research.高华证券投资研究52013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商new acquisitions accelerated in dec; nav expansion slow but is onwe saw further acceleration in new acquisitions by our coverage universe in dec (see exhibit 6),topped by col

24、i among our offshore coverage and vanke, poly and bcd among our onshorecoverage.exhibit 6: further acceleration in new acquisitions in dec, which is not yet factored intoour valuationshistorical land acquisition/contracted sales ratio180%offshore average acquisition amount as % of salesonshore avera

25、ge acquisition amount as % of sales160%140%120%100%80%we havent factored in60%40%20%0%our coverage univesenew acquisitions in dec200620072008200920102011jan-nov 122012source: company data, gao hua securities research estimates.高华证券投资研究3-dec-1262013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商policy quiet so far but risk increas

26、ing on firming price uptrenddespite the positive pricing trend (see exhibit 8), policy has been relatively quiet (nothingparticularly new) in the past month as shown in exhibit 7.exhibit 7: latest policy announcement related to property industrycategoryurbanization &land reformdate15-dec-1218-de

27、c-1225-dec-1218-dec-12detailsthe 2012 central economic work conference held in beijing during december 15-16set the tone to actively and steadily promote urbanization and increase its quality.national development and reform conference held in beijing also emphasized thefocus to actively and steadily

28、 promote urbanization and increase its quality.according to a draft amendment to the land management law approved by anexecutive meeting of the state council, the chinese government may remove theupper limit on compensation for the expropriation of rural collective land.ministry of land and resource

29、s reiterated its firm stance in property tightening andrequired the cities seeing fluctuations in land market activities to implement measuressuch as increasing land supply in order to maintain a steady market.land auctionproperty tax19-dec-1210-dec-12beijing ministry of land and resources halted th

30、e sale of a residential site (no.8 sitenorth to national agricultural exhibition center) that could have set a record price.mr. xie xuren, director of ministry of finance, said that the government will steadilypush forward the property tax reform trials and combine/simplify respective tax itemswithi

31、n the transaction tax category.mr. jia kang, director of the institute for fiscal science, confirmed that property taxplan details have been enacted, and its only a matter of time before the trial tax isinitiated nationwide.mohurd said that in 2013, it would stick to its property market tightening p

32、olicies,including differentiated credit, tax and hpr policies with determination to curbpropertytightening25-dec-12speculative investment demand and satisfy reasonable residential housing demand.meanwhile, it will continue the work to build individual housing info and recordsystems.source: various g

33、overnment websites, gao hua securities research.高华证券投资研究72013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商exhibit 8: property price index has risen in the past 7 months and turned positive yoy indec 12, suggesting increasing policy uncertaintiesproperty price index of 100-city高华证券投资研究(rmb/sqm)10,0009,8009,6009,4009,2009,0008,80

34、08,6008,400source: cia/soufun, gao hua securities research.100-city aspin dec, property priceindex finally turnedpositive yoy60103051020-7082013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商valuations not demanding in regional/historical contextrelative performance of our off/onshore coverage against their respectiveindices is s

35、imilarexhibit 9: offshore coverage developers share price performance vs. msci china index,historical disc. to nav and 11 major cities asp indexprice index20relative performance of offshore property index vs msci china (lhs)11 major cities asp index (lhs)15nav prem/disc (%) (rhs)(1) cabinet sent tea

36、ms toinspect the implementation ofgs forecast5040in july 2009, cbrc urged banks tostrengthen risk control and optimizecredit structure to prevent possiblefinancial risks amid a surge of perty regulation policies bylocal authorities(2)in july, cpc centralcommittee meeting stressedthe nee

37、d to unswervinglyimplement the real estatemarket control policies, and to0-5-10-15-20-25prevent prices rebounding.outperformance driven by priceincrease/nav expansion beforenew policy tightening kicked intpimpliednav disc:25%0-10-20-30-40-50-60-80source: datastream, company data, gao hua securities

38、research estimates.高华证券投资研究25592013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商exhibit 10: wind a share property index vs. csi300, onshore coverage developers 12-month forward p/e and 11 major cities asp indexprice indexrelative performance of wind a share property index vs csi300 (lhs)2511 major cities asp index (lhs)onshore

39、p/e (x) (rhs)gs forecast50in july 2009, cbrc urged banks to20151050-5-10strengthen risk control and optimizecredit structure to prevent possiblefinancial risks amid a surge of bank loans.(1) cabinet sent teams to inspect theimplementation of property regulationpolicies by local authorities(2)in july

40、, cpc central committee meetingstressed the need to unswervinglyimplement the real estate market controlpolicies, and to prevent prices rebounding.outperformance driven by priceincrease/nav expansion beforenew policy tightening kicked intpimplied2013e pe:10.0x454035302015100source: datastream, compa

41、ny data, gao hua securities research estimates.valuations still at a discount to regional peerswith financial risk substantially subdued and inventory pressure easing, we believe the major riskto which our coverage universe is exposed (i.e., policy risk) more or less aligns with its regionalpeers in

42、 hk/sgp. but as shown in exhibit 11, china property developers trade just in line with hkdevelopers (on a market cap weighted basis) and at a discount to sgp developers vs. theirpremium during the 2009 up-cycle.高华证券投资研究2013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商exhibit 11: china developers used to trade at a premium to re

43、gional peers in hk/sgpnav discount history for china, hk and sgp developersnav discount120%china offshore sector nav prem/discsgp developers sector nav prem/dischk developers sector nav prem/disc90%60%30%0%-30%-60%-90%source: gao hua securities research estimates, goldman sachs research estimates.高华

44、证券投资研究1020092013 年 1 月 9 日中国：开发商offshore top picks: longfor & greentown (both cl-buy)we also note that the relative valuation divergence among our offshore coverage remains greaterthan historical levels, suggesting good opportunities in selective names (see exhibit 12). amongour buy-rated stocks

45、, our top picks remain longfor and greentown as both have a goodcombination of valuation relative to their closest peers (longfor vs. coli/crl and greentown vs.shimao, r&f and agile), as discussed in our previous research reports.exhibit 12: valuation divergence among our offshore coverage vs. h

46、istorical levels suggests opportunities in selectivenames, such as greentown, longfor, cg, kwg, evergrande, poly hk and crl, which are all rated buyoffshore share price (discount)/ premium to navshr price (disc)/prem. to nav200920112012companygreentown chinalongforcrlcgevergrandekwgpoly property (h)

47、sunacagilecogocolifranshionr&fshimaoshui on landsino oceansoho chinayanlordoffshore sectorticker3900.hk0960.hk1109.hk2007.hk3333.hk1813.hk0119.hk1918.hk3383.hk0081.hk0688.hk0817.hk2777.hk0813.hk0272.hk3377.hk0410.hkynlg.siratingbuy*buy*buybuybuybuybuybuyneutralneutralneutralneutralneutralneutral

48、neutralneutralneutralsellcurrent-38%-42%-22%-35%-52%-39%-49%-42%-38%-20%-9%-36%-27%-34%-52%-47%-42%-31%-36%max72%n.a.36%12%n.a.48%n.a.n.a.6%n.a.31%13%9%10%17%48%13%8%25%median-4%n.a.7%-15%n.a.-11%n.a.n.a.-17%n.a.12%-11%-24%-14%-17%-6%-24%-19%-11%min-65%n.a.-16%-43%n.a.-56%n.a.n.a.-53%n.a.-6%-52%-45%

49、-62%-58%-37%-46%-55%-46%max-28%-28%-33%-35%-34%-31%-40%-60%-34%n.a.-21%-31%-43%-38%-51%-50%-27%-34%-36%median-50%-49%-47%-49%-57%-47%-63%-69%-46%n.a.-37%-42%-55%-55%-62%-63%-39%-50%-52%min-76%-67%-68%-69%-80%-74%-84%-85%-77%n.a.-56%-67%-75%-75%-79%-79%-56%-72%-73%max-34%-35%-20%-31%-42%-20%-46%-43%-

50、26%-17%-4%-27%-28%-30%-41%-42%-36%-28%-31%median-54%-43%-36%-41%-56%-38%-61%-64%-43%-28%-22%-37%-48%-45%-58%-59%-44%-45%-46%min-68%-60%-48%-52%-68%-57%-69%-71%-53%-33%-38%-52%-66%-63%-66%-71%-52%-58%-58%source: datastream, company data, gao hua securities research estimates.onshore top picks: vanke

51、a and bcd (both cl-buy)valuations of our onshore coverage are now close to the peak of last year on the back ofuniversally overweight positions at domestic mutual funds. although such valuations are notdemanding (still at the low end of 2009 as shown in exhibit 13) in an historical context, policyov

52、erhang could eventually ignite profit-taking similar to that in july-sept last year. our top picksamong our onshore coverage are vanke a (which has been suspended since dec 26, 2012pending an important company announcement) and bcd.exhibit 13: valuation of our onshore coverage back to last years pea

53、k but still at the low end of 2009 upturnonshore 12mth forward p/e premium/(discount)p/e (12mth forward)nov 11 - jun 12 upturnjan 09 - july 09 upturncompanybcdvankecmpzhongnanoctpolyrisesunworldunionsmconshore sectorticker600376.ss000002.sz000024.sz000961.sz000069.sz600048.ss002146.sz002285.sz600823

54、.sssector avgratingbuy*buy*buybuyneutralneutralneutralneutralsell(simple avgcurrent8.3x7.0x12.5x9.7x12.7x9.7x10.7x18.4x9.8x9.9xmax9.7x7.2x12.1x11.4x12.4x9.3x10.2x25.4x10.8x10.3xmedian7.9x6.5x9.9x9.0x10.7x7.5x8.3x21.7x9.8x8.6xmin5.7x6.0x8.8x6.8x10.0x6.4x6.3x17.1x7.9x7.1xmax25.7x25.0x34.5xn.a.25.8x24.

55、1x17.4xn.a.n.a.24.3xmedian10.9x15.9x22.9xn.a.17.3x14.4x10.8xn.a.n.a.14.5xmin6.2x14.0x14.4xn.a.12.8x10.8x7.4xn.a.n.a.10.3xmax25.7x25.0x34.5x27.9x25.8x24.1x21.2x37.6xn.a.25.2xmedian16.5x17.8x24.7x22.8x18.9x18.1x15.3x27.6xn.a.18.4xmin6.2x14.0x14.4x19.2x12.8x10.8x7.4x17.3xn.a.11.4xsource: datastream, co

56、mpany data, gao hua securities research estimates.高华证券投资研究11高华证券投资研究12exhibit 14: china developers valuation comparisoncompanytickermktprice as ofpotentialtargetend-13 nav scenario analysisfd core p/e (x)p/b(x)cap(us$12 mthpriceupside/downsidepricedisc. toshr price(disc)/ prem toshr price(disc)/ pre

57、m toshr price(disc)/ prem tobn)rating8/jan/13target(%)navbase-casenav bull-casenav bear-casenav12e13e14e12e13eh-share listedagilecogocolicrlcgevergrandefranshiongreentown chinar&fkwglongforpoly property (h)shimaoshui on landsino oceansoho chinasunac3383.hk0081.hk0688.hk1109.hk2007.hk3333.hk0817.

58、hk3900.hk2777.hk1813.hk0960.hk0119.hk0813.hk0272.hk3377.hk0410.hk1918.hk17.210.09.02.310.83.04.72.6neutralneutralneutralbuybuybuyneutralbuy*neutralbuybuy*buyneutralneutralneutralneutralbuy11.9 (hk$)10.0 (hk$)25.0 (hk$)23.1 (hk$)4.3 (hk$)4.6 (hk$)2.8 (hk$)15.3 (hk$)14.9 (h

59、k$)6.2 (hk$)15.4 (hk$)6.43 (hk$)16.7 (hk$)3.7 (hk$)6.0 (hk$)6.4 (hk$)6.8 (hk$)11.510.024.73.117.47.56.67.0(3)0(1)15751114(5)163717641333-40%-20%-10%-10%-30%-50%-30%-30%-30%-30%-20%-40%-30%-50%-40%-40%-40%19.212.527.54.424.920.410.226.312.525.47.811.311.111.7(

60、38)(20)(9)(22)(35)(52)(36)(38)(27)(39)(42)(49)(34)(52)(47)(42)(42)34.97.811.34.830.724.611.98.413.512.713.8(46)(29)(20)(34)(45)(60)(42)(50)(39)(48)(49)(57)(45)(56)(56)(50)(51)17.110.824.94.120.817.29.024.010.09.410.6(30)(7)0(15)(23)(44)(31)(26)(13)(31)(36)(35)(21)(49)(37)(32)(36)8.211.113.